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  • DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 30 06:17:09 2024
    ACUS01 KWNS 300617
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 300615

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0115 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

    Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
    EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN
    MISSOURI...

    CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC

    ...SUMMARY...
    Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail,
    damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected today into
    early tonight, particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area
    into the southern Plains.

    ...Synopsis...
    A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and become
    negatively tilted as it impinges on the Upper MS Valley today.
    Surface lee-troughing will remain in place across the Plains,
    resulting in the northward transport of an appreciably moist
    low-level airmass. A surface low will develop along the KS/OK border
    this afternoon and track toward the MS Valley this evening. A cold
    front will be draped across the MS Valley into KS while a dryline,
    extending from the low, is poised to sweep eastward across OK and
    northern TX through the day. Deep-layer ascent along and ahead of
    the cold front and dryline will support at least scattered
    thunderstorm initiation by late afternoon across the Plains. These
    storms will progress eastward amid a buoyant and highly sheared
    airmass. Severe storms are likely ahead of the cold front and
    dryline, with all hazards possible.

    ...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains...
    Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate along the cold front
    over northern KS into western IA by mid to late afternoon as
    stronger upper-level support from the impinging mid-level trough
    overspreads the terminus of a 50+ kt southerly low-level jet. 7+
    C/km mid-level lapse rates, overspreading rich low-level moisture
    (including mid-60s F surface dewpoints), should yield at least 1500
    J/kg SBCAPE. Strong southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading the
    low-level jet will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear,
    but with vectors aligned roughly parallel with the front. Initial
    semi-discrete storm modes, capable of mainly severe wind/hail, will
    quickly merge to form a QLCS with embedded bowing segments and
    perhaps a few mesovortices. This initial band of storms should
    approach the MS Valley region by sunset, accompanied by mainly
    damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat.

    Farther south into central KS/northern OK, more discrete
    thunderstorm development is expected by early evening. Surface
    temperatures in the upper 70s F, combined with mid to perhaps upper
    60s F dewpoints, will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE just
    before sunset. Storms that can mature in this environment may
    benefit from over 50 kts of effective bulk shear, as well as an
    increase in low-level shear upon approaching the western periphery
    of the low-level jet. Forecast soundings depict overall curved
    low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation and 250-350 m2/s2
    effective SRH. As such, supercells should be the initial storm mode
    before storm mergers result in squall line development. While many
    forecast soundings depict a weakness in the 800-600 mb layer, the
    overall strength of the low-level shear suggests at least a few
    tornadoes are possible, and a strong tornado or two may occur,
    mainly after dark. The severe threat may transition to more of a
    damaging gust threat after the squall line forms, though
    line-embedded QLCS tornadoes remain possible.

    ..Squitieri/Lyons.. 10/30/2024

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Nov 7 16:44:08 2024
    ACUS01 KWNS 071644
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 071642

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

    Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
    EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

    CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES

    ...SUMMARY...
    Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes
    are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

    ...West and Central TX...
    A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through
    tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave
    trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX
    overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W
    across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing
    very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX.


    Current indications are that storms will become more numerous
    through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear
    profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts,
    but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to
    the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary,
    forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of
    damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have
    extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning
    CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later
    today.

    ..Hart.. 11/07/2024

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Nov 10 16:40:59 2024
    ACUS01 KWNS 101640
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 101639

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

    Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    CORRECTED TO CHANGE SUNDAY TO MONDAY

    ...SUMMARY...
    The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight.

    ...Discussion...
    An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast
    to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper
    Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St.
    Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the
    period. As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly
    progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region
    today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z
    (Monday morning).

    Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse
    rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability. While a
    more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the
    Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly
    advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael
    sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear
    precludes appreciable severe potential. Farther north, stronger
    flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to
    areas farther south. As such, severe weather is not anticipated.

    ..Goss/Lyons.. 11/10/2024

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 11 16:37:03 2024
    ACUS01 KWNS 111636
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 111635

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

    Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

    ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

    CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC

    ...SUMMARY...
    Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

    ...Discussion...
    A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing
    prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper
    ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated
    to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an
    inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending
    northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A
    few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but
    near-land severe potential should remain limited.

    ..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/11/2024

    $$

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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Apr 2 02:12:04 2025
    ACUS01 KWNS 020211
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 020210

    Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0910 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

    Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

    ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

    CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GRAPHIC

    ...SUMMARY...
    Isolated severe storm development will be possible into the
    overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains, with
    large hail and severe gusts. A tornado will be possible. Late
    tonight, an organized line of thunderstorms with severe wind gusts
    and isolated large hail is expected to develop across parts of
    central and eastern Kansas.

    ...Southern Plains...
    The latest water vapor imagery shows a southwest flow pattern over
    the central U.S., with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs
    moving through the flow. One shortwave trough appears to be in
    south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma. This feature is likely
    supporting isolated convective development to the east of a
    Kansas-Oklahoma dryline. To the east of the dryline early this
    evening, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F across south-central
    Kansas and near 60 F over much of Oklahoma. MLCAPE to the east of
    the dryline is estimated by the RAP to be between 1000 and 2000
    J/kg. Moistening will likely continue to occur across the southern
    Plains this evening, and convective initiation will be possible
    along a front moving southeastward across the region. RAP forecast
    soundings late this evening show strong deep-layer shear and steep
    mid-level lapse rates. This will support isolated severe storm
    development with large hail.

    After midnight, some model solutions produce scattered thunderstorms
    across parts of central and northern Oklahoma. If this occurs, then
    a threat for supercell with large to very large hail, and wind
    damage will be possible. A tornado threat could also develop.

    Further southwest into parts of the low Rolling Plains of
    north-central and southwest Texas, isolated thunderstorm development
    will be possible this evening. Convective coverage is expected to
    remain very limited due to a lack of large-scale ascent. If a cell
    can initiate and grow upscale, then large hail will be possible. A
    few severe wind gusts could also occur.

    ...Central Plains...
    The latest surface analysis has a 986 mb low in northwest Kansas. A
    cold front is moving through western Kansas, with a warm front
    moving through northeast Kansas. A dryline extends southward from
    the low across west-central Kansas. Isolated convective initiation
    may take place near the dryline this evening across south-central
    and southeastern Kansas. A north-to-south axis of moderate
    instability is analyzed across central Kansas, where MLCAPE is
    estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional
    WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range, with a
    curved hodograph in the lowest 3 km AGL. Also, forecast soundings in
    central Kansas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
    environment could support isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
    A tornado threat will also be possible, especially as the storms
    move eastward into a strengthening low-level jet later tonight. A
    strong tornado could occur. Severe storms will also be possible
    further north into parts of southeast Nebraska. These storms should
    be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

    Later tonight, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of
    a cold front moving southeastward across central Kansas. Model
    forecasts suggest that a line will remain organized through late in
    the period, possibly affecting eastern Kansas. Severe wind gusts
    will be possible near and just ahead of this convective line.

    ...North-central California...
    The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough
    moving eastward across northern California. Ahead of this feature,
    isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from the northern
    Sierras southward into the Sacramento Valley. The airmass along this
    corridor is weakly unstable, according to the RAP. Forecast
    soundings in the Sacramento Valley have SBCAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg,
    0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots,and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7
    C/km. This environment may support a marginal severe threat this
    evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

    ..Broyles.. 04/02/2025

    $$

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