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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2277

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Dec 25 01:10:31 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 250110
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 250109=20
    TXZ000-250245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2277
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0709 PM CST Tue Dec 24 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of central and east/southeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712...

    Valid 250109Z - 250245Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Risk for large hail and damaging gusts continues across
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch 712.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in intensity and coverage
    along a northeast/southwest-oriented pre-frontal confluence zone
    draped across central and east/southeast TX this evening. A cold
    front is also approaching from the northwest, and is beginning to
    catch up to the northern portion of the confluence zone. Here,
    congealing outflow is favoring localized upscale growth, and
    damaging winds will be the primary concern. The one exception is a
    persistent semi-discrete supercell ahead of the line which will pose
    a risk of large hail (generally up to 1.5 inches) in the near term.

    Farther south, regional VWP data indicates 30-40 kt of
    west-southwesterly 0-6 km shear, oriented oblique to the pre-frontal
    confluence zone. Given this shear orientation and increased
    separation from the approaching cold front, discrete/semi-discrete
    supercells will pose a risk of large hail (some up to 1.75 inches),
    with damaging winds also possible.=20

    With time, increasing storm development will favor upscale growth,
    and the severe-wind risk will become the main threat before
    convection gets undercut by the front.

    ..Weinman.. 12/25/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-a2g0fbo-pMvsYslMBMp5woYcv5uedXwogAkEfBw2lPaqz6IrEt-kqnPM0-YkN8oNd_QY3ved= X5Yi9XZg2Sjxq8nzzQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

    LAT...LON 30879678 31699602 31909576 32079531 32059483 31829466
    30089623 29649707 29709751 29879780 30359748 30879678=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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