ACUS11 KWNS 271309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271308=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-271415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0708 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024

Areas affected...central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 271308Z - 271415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A low-probability, brief tornado risk may persist through
the rest of mid-morning across southeast Mississippi.

DISCUSSION...A confluent band of mainly discrete convection has
persisted over the past couple hours, generally perpendicular to a northwest/southeast-oriented warm front that is roughly approaching
a PIB to MOB line. Transient supercell structures have been noted,
and these may persist through about 15Z. The 12Z LIX RAOB sampled a
bit of near-surface stability, but otherwise contained a
conditionally favorable buoyancy/shear space for a supercell
tornado. As noted in the 13Z SWODY1, the background synoptic
environment is unlikely to support substantially greater
organization. In conjunction, with further waning of large-scale
ascent, overall tornado potential in this area should be brief and
temporally diminish by late morning.

..Grams/Edwards.. 12/27/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7V7n7ZsRijcTqu7SdX7J0zeI2hbgow0X0u3Cyl-2ccEqsDXCGsSiyusCbJk1YwjeaT8DN-QiJ= YT5AKzuaXNVIdCSWvA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON 31398902 31288834 30968788 30828772 30268808 30238845
30278896 30228946 30288971 30538972 31188918 31398902=20


=3D =3D =3D
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