ACUS11 KWNS 312357
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312356=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-010200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2324
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CST Tue Dec 31 2024

Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 312356Z - 010200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms will spread northeastward through the
evening. Small to marginally severe hail and locally gusty winds
remain possible. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out near the
Delmarva region.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived thunderstorm cluster is moving
northeastward across parts of eastern MD/VA early this evening, in
association with a strong midlevel shortwave trough and 1000 mb
surface low moving across the Mid Atlantic region. The northern
portion of this cluster appears to be outpacing the northward return
of modest surface-based instability, but increasing elevated
moisture and buoyancy will help to maintain the cluster as it
approaches DE and southern NJ. MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500
J/kg and strong effective shear will continue to support organized convection.=20

Small to marginally severe hail will continue to be possible with
both the ongoing cluster and with elevated storms developing ahead
of the cluster, due to cold temperatures aloft (below -20C at 500
mb) associated with the shortwave trough. Increasing low-level
stability may tend to limit the severe-wind threat with
northeastward extent, though locally strong/damaging gusts may
accompany the more organized convective elements, especially from
southern NJ into the Delmarva. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled
out where convection remains near-surface-based, especially near the
Delmarva where the southern portion of the ongoing cluster will
intercept modestly increasing MLCAPE.

..Dean/Bunting.. 12/31/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7odwIjWtuP5yCoiNyIOXQQojougDdLMLzlR0loTbN8hoZI9PjkUpkksn3GI0NTDobBVobLsOa= wwO84rSo03oPt8LLVY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 39257669 39757580 40507452 40847379 40367355 38947450
38007522 37857582 37827611 37807644 37847684 38097676
38687625 39257669=20


=3D =3D =3D
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