ACUS11 KWNS 280624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280623=20
VTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-281130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0055
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025

Areas affected...North and western New York

Concerning...Snow Squall=20

Valid 280623Z - 281130Z

SUMMARY...Brief, but intense, snow showers along a strong cold front
will move into northern and western New York through the overnight
hours. Ahead of the front, heavy snowfall rates up to 1-2
inches/hour are possible along the northeastern shores of the Lower
Great Lakes.

DISCUSSION...A strong cold front, evident by a pronounced leading
band of heavy snow showers, has been pushing southeast out of
Ontario/Quebec over the past several hours. Higher reflectivity
values (up to 30 dBz) and occasional lightning flashes have been
noted along portions of the front, indicative of the deep convective
nature of the snow bands. Wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph have also
been noted with the passage of the front across Ontario/Quebec, as
well as occasional visibility reductions. Similar conditions are
possible as the snow bands cross the Lower Great Lakes and move into
northern and western NY. A combination of rapidly falling
temperatures along/behind the front, bursts of heavy snow within the
stronger bands, and winds gusting up to 25 mph will support snow
squall conditions across northern/western NY, and possibly into
central NY, over the next several hours.=20

Prior to the passage of the front, southwesterly winds oriented
along Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will continue to support moderate
to heavy lake effect snow bands on the northeastern shores of both
lakes. Recent surface observations have reported visibility
reductions between 1/4 to 3/4 of a mile. Despite 20-30 mph winds,
blowing snow model output suggests that these visibility reductions
are attributable to moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Recent
guidance supports this idea and hints that rates up to 1-2
inches/hour are possible prior to the passage of the front.

..Moore.. 01/28/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6JxY-5MltY3yYRWRO34TI4CS9j-63UON70oLbV8gVRcaptYp4PAuBd6KdDdWhPUAb2UtBC9RY= HLZW51Qu2d1iuRBWCM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

LAT...LON 42287757 42067847 41987899 41977948 42047976 42197993
42337993 42407972 42617936 42877914 43097911 43237913
43387891 43517827 43417754 43457705 43567674 43827654
44107653 44357633 44807553 45007507 45067476 45077399
45067354 45037338 44897327 44657319 44427333 44217352
43997380 43697430 42337741 42287757=20


=3D =3D =3D
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