ACUS11 KWNS 310406
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310406=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-310600-

Mesoscale Discussion 0060
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Areas affected...central/southern portions of MS/LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 310406Z - 310600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts and a brief tornado should be the
main threats into the early morning hours as broken thunderstorm
clusters spread quickly east-northeast.

DISCUSSION...The onset of mid-level height falls has aided in
gradually deepening convection from southwest LA into southwest MS
along a weak cold front. Despite strong low-level shear ahead of the
front, instability remains quite limited with poor lapse rates
evident in 00Z observed soundings. This is yielding meager buoyancy.
Still, given the presence of pronounced mid/upper-level speed shear,
in conjunction with the strengthening large-scale ascent, modestly
organized clusters should rapidly spread east-northeast through
about 08-09Z. Greater organizational structures may be subdued by
orientation of the clusters paralleling the deep-layer shear vector.
Locally strong gusts may occur, along with potential of a brief
embedded tornado.

..Grams/Mosier.. 01/31/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!55-icXmAEgA4ND24VW3EnCO6GgBeDZn8JjudYCDgM7h_UUf3k__dqS3-adufW9eiXqAbwFooN= 82p7lTZ1bDgDdpgNL8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 31849130 32889045 33218953 33058909 32328903 31029005
30269123 30089182 30099232 30209261 30639252 31849130=20


=3D =3D =3D
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