ACUS11 KWNS 041750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041749=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-041945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0134
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Areas affected...Mississippi and eastern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 041749Z - 041945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch will be needed soon.

DISCUSSION...Low to mid 60s dewpoints have started to surge inland
across southeast Louisiana over the past 2 hours. Sustained 15 to 25
knot southeasterly flow ahead of the squall line should lead to
rapid northward destabilization across Mississippi during the next
few hours. This squall line is currently producing severe wind gusts
with a 61 knot wind gust at KPOE at 1727 UTC. Mid 60s dewpoints are
expected south of I-20 in Mississippi which should correspond to the
area of greatest instability and tornado threat this afternoon.
North of I-20, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints should result in
sufficient instability for a severe wind threat and perhaps some
line-embedded tornadoes given the magnitude of the low-level shear.=20

Across eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi, where better
low-level moisture will be present and some heating may result in
greater instability, discrete supercells may be possible. This is a
scenario supported by the HRRR consistently. Even if mature
supercells do not develop ahead of the main squall line, the weaker
forced southern end of the squall line will likely result in a less
defined line with embedded supercells. Any supercells which develop,
ahead of or within the line, will pose a threat for strong tornadoes
given RAP forecast STP values around 3 to 4 this afternoon and
evening. Additionally, the strong kinematic environment will support
QLCS tornadoes within the better defined squall line.=20

A tornado watch will be issued soon to address the threat from the
squall line and any supercells which may develop ahead of the line.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 03/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7kwe0o_QAkCh51frFHeFfYK1T_QzkRO7g4_niIGvZR7iJMPaopeBAGhtCRat1GQ-54ArhrOTl= EZ7Tbey7eHSlOlVxTA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31289232 33699111 33919009 33978909 33848823 32958830
31908848 30528874 30038911 29838916 29488920 29248889
29028893 28868923 29018961 29069005 29039055 29109116
29259160 29509201 29709214 30429234 31289232=20


=3D =3D =3D
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