ACUS11 KWNS 090759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090759=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-091030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025

Areas affected...parts of southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 090759Z - 091030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms remain possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing early this morning from
southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle, within a modest low-level warm
advection regime, and immediately in advance of a low-amplitude
midlevel shortwave trough moving across the lower MS Valley. This
convection is generally focused north of a front extending from
coastal southeast LA to just offshore of southern MS/AL and the FL
Panhandle. The richest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the low
70s F) is confined to areas near/south of this front, with mid 60s F
dewpoints extending inland immediately north of the front.=20

Ongoing convection is likely somewhat elevated, but MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg and strong effective shear are providing a favorable
environment for at least transient storm organization. The strongest
cells overnight will be capable of producing small to marginally
severe hail, especially across western portions of the MCD area
where somewhat stronger instability is in place. Guidance suggests
some increase in low-level flow (which is currently rather weak) is
possible later this morning, which could aid in the development of
localized strong/damaging gusts with time.

..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!--lKqVM9v814uY5XRWAvS6e9EQr2Iw9FSM9lZvo430xm3FM3u08v2p8aj6YCzBi8HGmnSqznn= x0Sc6cBuVL_ZhQ33IU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 29888882 30428887 30708894 30948884 31198830 31068630
30818500 30598422 30478372 30128342 29708339 29548357
29458417 29458486 29728574 29888638 29868705 29848784
29888839 29888882=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)