ACUS11 KWNS 131300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131259=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-131430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Areas affected...Parts of northern MS into northern/central AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131259Z - 131430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong gusts are possible this morning.

DISCUSSION...Elevated storms have gradually increased this morning
near and in advance of a compact midlevel low centered near Memphis.
The 12Z JAN and BMX soundings depicted steep midlevel lapse rates
and cold temperatures aloft (near -20C at 500 mb), which will
support potential for localized strong storms through the morning,
despite generally modest effective shear across the region. Storms
may increase in coverage as moistening continues near the base of
the EML. This convection is currently expected to remain rather
disorganized, but isolated hail and perhaps localized
strong/damaging gusts may become possible with time this morning.

..Dean/Smith.. 03/13/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8czH8U5yI8QNlIKg2Af8EWmEjJBosDLkkWE1LNawJE-pXg9wyshJu9MW1GkrfGkxVrAMd5PLq= N2co9oCmRtmDCxI-0k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32788694 32998796 33098837 33188901 33328944 33988951
34788922 34648768 34478707 34238632 34008592 33438580
32958621 32848644 32788694=20


=3D =3D =3D
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