ACUS11 KWNS 132120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132120=20
ALZ000-132315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0420 PM CDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Areas affected...Northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 132120Z - 132315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A robust supercell moving across northwest/north-central
AL will pose a large hail and severe wind threat for the next 1-3
hours. While very large hail is possible, this threat is expected to
remain sufficiently limited spatially to preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour or so, a robust supercell has
emerged from a cluster of relatively transient convection associated
with weak low-level warm advection and ascent in proximity to a
mid-level vorticity maximum. This cell is expected to continue
propagating southeastward over the next 1-3 hours along a diffuse
baroclinic zone near 925 mb. As this cell migrates southeast, it
will be influenced by somewhat stronger mid-level winds, which will
likely help maintain storm longevity/organization. As such, a
downstream corridor of locally higher severe hail/wind threat is
becoming apparent. While 1-inch hail stones have already been
reported from this storm, MRMS MESH suggest hail stones upwards of
1.5 to 2.0 inches will be possible. Although the regional severe
threat will likely be focused with this cell, additional cells may
sufficiently intensify to pose a large hail threat.

..Moore/Guyer.. 03/13/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6PBrA2tzkpwciQOzQhaV7Rnge5vTZZrxp9FyrVhMiQCkFdgeQIcZen75gTA_HwSk4wWxzW8f4= NDyJRBzPHhf2AXzXX8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 34358814 34638805 34848778 34938738 34928705 34198563
33988553 33718562 33468614 33408663 33468708 33528746
33748779 34148805 34358814=20


=3D =3D =3D
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