ACUS11 KWNS 150147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150147=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-150315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0181
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0847 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Areas affected...east-central Missouri and into adjacent western
Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

Valid 150147Z - 150315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat is forecast to spread into the greater St.
Louis area over the next hour.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows dewpoints now into the
mid 50s west of the Mississippi River, southwest of the St. Louis
Metro area. This has supported a northward expansion of the axis of
greatest mixed-layer CAPE, per recent RAP-based mesoanalysis, with
near 1000 J/kg now as far north as St. Louis, and 2000 J/kg to near
FAM (Farmington, MO). In response, several supercell storms have
organized within the main convective band, and are moving
northeastward at 45 kt. At this time, one storm in particular,
moving across Franklin County, is showing very strong low-level
rotation, with hints of a corresponding minimum in correlation
coefficient that would suggest an ongoing tornado. As such, given
the background thermodynamic and kinematic environment, potential
for a significant tornado appears to exist. This storm will
continue to track northeastward toward the St. Louis area,
potentially resulting in a particularly dangerous situation.

..Goss.. 03/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9SUnca0GxALo0b8gSN0DNhHwkkCice9R-eB33im3z8r8h09Fj8k540SohsewwaNVEE7e9ml2I= QCIrxmdrofzHMoQJcE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37649186 38279130 38769120 39349015 39358966 38338975
37869079 37649186=20


=3D =3D =3D
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