ACUS11 KWNS 151916
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151915=20
TNZ000-152045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0208
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Areas affected...portions of middle Tennessee

Concerning...Tornado Watch 47...

Valid 151915Z - 152045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 47 continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 47. A few
damaging gusts or QLCS tornadoes remain possible.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS continues to progress eastward across Middle TN
amid afternoon peak heating. Surface temperatures have warmed to
over 70 F downstream of the QLCS, supporting MUCAPE approaching 500
J/kg. Though the HTX VAD shows a large, curved hodograph,
boundary-layer buoyancy remains scant (as demonstrated by neutral to
stable lapse-rates in the 18Z BNA observed sounding). As such, it is
unclear how much of the ambient environmental SRH is effective (i.e.
can be ingested into the leading-line updrafts). At least a threat
for damaging gusts should persist with the progression of this line,
though a few tornadoes remain possible given such strong low-level
shear.

..Squitieri.. 03/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4_xq2dB0kJ4nvuCZ6IGMYbwLZs5ljZoZu-pxLhGx_z0nW2FnVGJOU9KjOZCtXajxmMmSXCFcg= EuEh9ETrYEfyHVbsdQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON 35058759 35848718 36428668 36578568 36428494 36088470
35778491 35398543 35188571 35028616 35058759=20


=3D =3D =3D
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