ACUS11 KWNS 160930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160930=20
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-161030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0430 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Georgia to south central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 160930Z - 161030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for occasional wind damage and a couple of
tornadoes with embedded circulations will spread east of the current
watches. A new tornado watch will likely be needed by 10z from
southeast Georgia across South Carolina into south central North
Carolina.

DISCUSSION...A persistent QLCS continues to move eastward toward
east central GA and will reach the edge of tornado watch #50 close
to 10z. Echo depth and flash rates have decreased some over the
past hour, which could be a reflection of the storms getting too far
ahead of the destabilization, and weakening forcing for ascent with
time. Still, a 70 kt low-level jet and surface temperatures near 70
with low-mid 60s dewpoints suggest that some rejuvenation of the
convection will be possible. Given the strong vertical shear
profiles, any persistent storms would pose some threat for damaging
winds and a couple of tornadoes. The MD area is being considered
for a new tornado watch by about 10z.

..Thompson/Smith.. 03/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_UmXhzw8UOJ9hYM5wXp0X96LnN0H51n061wh7rw1iECV8d_XXrzYhnyaG0mho8Zw_f-hPoT_1= myJO8HidYiQvbn-6Ns$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 33838146 34598094 35248030 35437979 35367929 35107884
34707884 33837965 33208030 31878147 32058210 32528204
33838146=20


=3D =3D =3D
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