ACUS11 KWNS 032043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032043=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-032215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...Northeast TX into northwest LA and southern AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 109...

Valid 032043Z - 032215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 109 continues.

SUMMARY...Storm intensification is possible by late afternoon.
Tornadic supercells remain possible near/south of the front, in
addition to a threat of severe hail and wind.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in deep convection has been noted across
northeast TX, along and south/east of an outflow-reinforced surface
front draped from northern MS into southern AR and northeast TX. The environment remains quite favorable for tornadic supercells within
the warm sector in this region, with the 19Z SHV sounding depicting
MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, 60 kt of effective shear, and 0-1 km
SRH of greater than 200 m2/s2. However, in the absence of stronger
large-scale ascent, it remains uncertain if any supercells can
mature prior to moving to the cool side of the surface front. Any
sustained surface-based supercells could pose some threat of
significant (EF2+) tornadoes within this environment. Otherwise, a
threat for severe hail (possibly greater than 2 inches in diameter)
and damaging wind will accompany any supercells (surface-based or
elevated) within this regime.

..Dean.. 04/03/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6FhaknN3Iy6iOQe8ikhk8VeX_d_0ES0Jeuxk2YeCIHLo3OaW9Wl9KieuYE16tUU9bkVuEZhtV= XVtFNHKaC-dfjKMe0E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 32569276 31519396 31329450 31539507 32019522 32349522
32889512 33549398 34309154 33689144 33229151 33009203
32939217 32569276=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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