ACUS11 KWNS 041720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041720=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-041915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0393
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Northeast TX...southeast OK...AR...extreme
northwest LA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 041720Z - 041915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell development is likely this afternoon. All
hazards will be possible, including the potential for strong
tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Rich low-level moisture is in place early this
afternoon across LA and east TX into southern AR, with mean mixing
ratios in the lowest 1 km of greater than 15 g/kg noted on 12Z
soundings from SHV, LCH, CRP, and BRO. This moisture will continue
to stream northward this afternoon, along and east of a cold front
currently draped across east TX. The 12Z LZK sounding depicted a
very shallow frontal inversion, and a persistently strong low-level
jet should help an outflow-reinforced boundary lift northward as a
warm front from AR into the lower OH Valley this afternoon, though
cloudiness and persistent elevated convection north of the boundary
may slow its northward advance somewhat.=20

Gradually deepening showers are currently noted within the
destabilizing environment from AR into northwest MS. Relatively warm temperatures aloft were also noted on regional 12Z soundings.
However, continued diurnal heating and removal of MLCINH should
eventually allow for surface-based storm development with time into
this afternoon, as large-scale ascent gradually increases in advance
of an approaching mid/upper-level trough. Moderate to strong
buoyancy (with MLCAPE of at least 2000-3000 J/kg) and favorable
deep-layer shear will support supercell development. Storm coverage
may tend to be greater near the cold front from east TX into western
AR, but isolated supercells will also be possible farther east and
also in the vicinity of the warm front.=20

All hazards will be possible with any surface-based supercells
within this regime. Favorable instability, rich boundary-layer
moisture, and relatively strong low-level shear/SRH will support the
potential for strong tornadoes with any sustained, mature supercells
that remain in the warm sector. One or more Tornado Watches are
expected this afternoon in order to cover these threats.

..Dean/Thompson.. 04/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6lRh8WjVFwgK2awXrV9ipy09oLvrYjm8b9jWUj_UWNjTUZqjUd8nqZlWTf-gtdg5PFN8jE9cj= o40YsNvz-pw8nzJirg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON 32569600 33879497 35829387 36329270 36439197 36419124
35829117 35079123 34429152 33429264 32369410 31759541
32569600=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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