ACUS11 KWNS 041827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041826=20
TXZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Fri Apr 04 2025

Areas affected...Parts of south-central into northeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 041826Z - 042000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon, with
a threat of large hail and strong to severe gusts. Some tornado
potential could also evolve with time.

DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon, a slow-moving cold front is
draped from northeast into south-central TX, with another weak cold
front/wind shift intersecting the primary front west of San Antonio
and extending southward toward Laredo. Elevated convection is
increasing to the cool side of the boundary across north-central TX,
with increasing showers noted across the warm sector noted across
east-central TX. Storm coverage is expected to increase with time on
either side of the front, as ascent gradually increases in response
to an approaching mid/upper-level trough.=20

Strong instability (with MLCAPE near/above 3000 J/kg along/east of
the front and similar MUCAPE magnitudes to the immediate cool side)
and around 50 kt of effective shear are providing a favorable
environment for organized convection, and maturing convection this
afternoon could evolve into a few supercells and/or organized
clusters, with a threat of large to very large hail and severe wind
gusts. The KGRK and KHGX VWPs depict a rather strong (35-45 kt)
low-level jet, and effective SRH will be sufficient to support some
tornado threat with any sustained warm-sector supercells.=20

Watch issuance will become increasingly possible this afternoon if observational trends support development of multiple organized
storms across the region.

..Dean/Thompson.. 04/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8cVvi-cbexD3LZEAUfdZb94dFl-rAs1IZCMGv3AlIJPMvlLpfpheJ5WkeX-V0fKlMJ81vAcRm= DfSW52oEZckNOGDSjA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 29699754 29929810 30269839 30649841 32309656 32499606
31999562 31549538 31179554 30629606 30199654 29839732
29699754=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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