AWUS01 KWNH 081653
FFGMPD
ORZ000-WAZ000-090400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1258
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 AM EST Mon Dec 08 2025

Areas affected...Western Washington...Far Northwest Oregon...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081700Z - 090400Z

SUMMARY...Very strong atmospheric river with persistent .25-.5"/hr
rates falling on increasingly saturated soils will result in high
run-off, swelling rivers and poor drainage/urban flooding but at
minimum further set the stage for expected additional rainfall
into the mid-week.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic is showing the leading
warm/moisture advection surge from the atmospheric river is
expanding across the Pacific Northwest and into the Washington
Cascades at this time. CIRA LPW animation depicts a long fetch
core to the atmospheric river with a long tap back to the tropics
near the Dateline; though the strength of the polar stream with
150-170kt fairly zonal upper-level jet has resulted in very strong
deep layer flow which has resulted in a fairly long/gradual
isentropic incline to deplete any potential of vertical
instability, the strength of moisture flux anomalies are pushing
the maximum climatological percentiles for this time of year. This
is generally confirmed by CIRA LPW percentiles in the 95-99th
range through all layers but most noted in the 700-500mb at this
time.

The total PWat values are at or above 1.25" and have come ashore
with the subtle but fast moving warm front denoted with wind shift
from south to southwest and increase to 40kts at surface, 50-60kts
near boundary layer and over 70kts at 700mb, this has lead to IVT
values very near 1000 kg/m/s analyzed just offshore while
remaining above 700 kg/m/s into the Cascades currently, but is
expected to rise as the effective warm sector moisture intersects
the terrain fairly orthogonally as well. As a result, broad
.25-.33"/hr rates have been seen near the coastal areas so far and
will expand into W WA over the next few hours. The nose of the
upper-jet remains north for a bit and height-falls on the western
side of the core will not start to dip southward until well after
00z as the cold front reaches the mouth of the Juan de Fuca Strait
around 00-01z.

The strong flux, upslope flow will allow for rates of .5"/hr
regularly through the mid to upper slopes of the Cascade Range as
the WAA has freezing heights above all but the highest peaks. As
such upper slopes will see 3-5" totals by 03z with foothills
likely to be 2-4" and lower valleys less than 2"...with isolated
totals to 6-7"+ along the core of the AR in the southern WA
Cascade Range. Coastal Ranges including the Olympics may see
4-6". Overall, FFG values are high enough even to encompass all
but those highest extreme values being greater than 3.5/3hrs and
over 5"/6hrs. However, NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm soil saturation
values are generally above 70-80% across which is generally a bit
above normal for the Coastal Range, but near 75-85th percentiles
for the Cascade Range; however, full saturation should occur
through the late afternoon, and as the main surge occurs toward
00z, much of the rainfall should convert to run-off. This should
swell the rivers fairly quickly with compounding issues resulting
in riverine flooding (please refer to discussion and graphical
products from NW River Forecast Center and National Water Center
for further details).

Given this is the first surge of a prolonged AR event, the
potential for flash flooding is likely limited to the highest
slopes/reaches of the watersheds or some localized urban flooding
due to poor drainage. With the saturation of the soils through
depth, there will be a slowly increasing potential for mudslides
especially near/downslope any recent burn scars.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!41Gpl_K0C4oZ8oksLbVkshXJ6rbtTPELhF_yqA-pb03G5RNZm1ZMxwDtMJ02CLLoM3h0= Gh03LT2xq3MSxojGryzr5JQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49112107 48812060 48292030 47312040 46882082=20
45752140 45492147 45512177 45902229 46102264=20
46062298 45822333 45732387 46362422 47182433=20
47832456 48222487 48462487 48292398 47902348=20
47362331 46992302 46942246 47252212 47702194=20
48252209 48572212 48962190 49092160=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092112
FFGMPD
ORZ000-WAZ000-100910-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1259
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 PM EST Tue Dec 09 2025

Areas affected...Northern Oregon and Western Washington

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092110Z - 100910Z

Summary...The ongoing atmospheric river event over the Pacific
Northwest will continue into tonight over portions of western
Oregon and Washington. The axis of heaviest rainfall is expected
to shift back north into Washington and also increase in
intensity, which will bring an increasing flood and landslide risk
to these areas.

Discussion...The expectation is that the atmospheric river
impacting northern OR will shift northward back into western WA
this evening. After a temporary drop in Integrated Water Vapor
Transport (IVT) today, values are forecast to increase again
towards 03z resulting in an uptick in rainfall coverage and
intensity into the overnight hours. With no forecast instability,
rainfall rates will be driven mostly by the magnitude of moisture
transport into the terrain. This will put a cap on the upper bound
of rainfall rates, although this will be compensated by IVT values
above the climatological 99th percentile and layered precipitable
water (PW) generally above the 95th percentile at all atmospheric
levels. This deep moisture and strong moisture transport will
support hourly rainfall in the 0.25"-0.40" range, potentially
approaching 0.50" in the highest mountain peaks. These rates
should increase in coverage after 03z (per the 12z HREF
probabilities), moving from northern OR into western WA overnight.
Additional rainfall through 09z Wednesday is generally expected to
be in the 1-3" range.

Under typical conditions, rainfall rates and totals of this
magnitude would not pose a significant hazard to this region.
However, the past 24 hours have already brought 4-10" of rain to
these locations, leading to saturated ground and elevated streams
and rivers. Although parts of WA saw a brief lull today allowing
for some recovery, hydrologic conditions remain sensitive.
Consequently, when heavier rain returns this evening into tonight,
additional flood impacts are expected.

The primary impacts are expected to be flooding of rivers and
streams, other low-lying flood-prone areas, and poor drainage and
urban areas. Given the saturated ground, the risk of landslides
and debris flows in areas of steep terrain will also increase
tonight as rainfall intensity ramps up.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!43p-OkfUop706I6cKLYBBIwzA6nB0hPZtCxkYgIrTsd-VTMoHaWWkfw9qP6uMmlQkjOt= HZdFGfUJBx9ZZGkLPPdfEFs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47942123 47642074 46792112 46432130 45912145=20
45412151 45322145 44952164 44572184 44412215=20
44522255 44712277 45042250 45422224 45882270=20
45822308 45252331 44842354 44972399 45782413=20
46532407 47232417 47682412 47842384 47782333=20
47392322 47042294 46852251 47122208 47482197=20
47762182=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101628
FFGMPD
WAZ000-110300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1260
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1128 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Areas affected...Olympic and Cascade Ranges of Western
Washington...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall

Valid 101630Z - 110300Z

SUMMARY...Core of next atmospheric river surge through evening.=20
Rates of .33-.75"/hr based on elevation likely to further compound
ongoing river flooding throughout the foothills of the Olympic and
Cascade Ranges. Mud/Landslide potential continues to increase
with amount of deep soil moisture.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional RADAR mosaic shows core of solid
stratiform rainfall is expanding across much of western
Washington. CIRA LPW shows solid sub-tropical moisture connection
tapping just northwest of Kaua'i only narrowing/concentrating
along and south of the stationary front 42N/142W to the Olympic
Range. RAP analysis and recent VWP network observations denote a
surge of increased moisture/warm advection south of the front is
directed orthogonally to the Olympic Range and further downstream
to the western Washington Cascades with 30-40kts of boundary layer
orographic ascent and Tds in the mid 50s. CIRA LPW also notes
that core of enhanced 850-700mb remains well displaced (east over
WA at this time) to the surface core indicative of the long,
gentle upslope of the AR moisture plume; so with limited unstable
air, orographic moisture flux convergence remains the primary
driver of intense rates, so stark rainshadows and much lower
rainfall totals/rates are expected in main, lower elevation
valleys.=20=20

CIRA LPW analysis, extrapolation shows core of enhanced moisture
below 700mb will continue to be directed toward the Juan de Fuca Strait/Northern Olympics into the Northern Washington Cascades
over the next 6-9hrs supporting rates of .25" in the valleys to up
to .75" in the highest terrain of the Cascades; and with the
strong warm sub-tropic air, all but the most extreme peaks will
continue to remain below the freezing levels. RAP/HRRR along with
LPW extrapolation suggest core of enhanced moisture and winds will
slowly reduce from supporting over 800 kg/m/s IVT values below 600
kg/m/s toward 00z with the front sagging south toward the mouth of
the Columbia river by 06z.=20=20

FFG values are static in the Pacific Northwest and are not likely
to be exceeded; however, NASA SPoRT shows 0-40cm saturation is
near 90%, so nearly all those rates will be fully run-off. Flash flooding/rapid inundation flooding is not expected except for the
highest reaches of watersheds/upper slope creeks, etc. but the
rainfall will definitely continue a steady rise/expansion of
ongoing river flooding across the area. Please refer to Northwest
River Forecast Center and National Water Center products for
details of these ongoing dangerous, life threatening conditions.=20

Additionally, deep layer saturation of the upper soils suggests
mud/landslides may become increasingly possible through this
evening, especially given affects of strong winds acting upon the
trees and therefore their roots. Remain aware of this potential
and refer to local emergency managers and USGS reports/products
regarding landslide concerns.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8L2D4ky7YUPIc_XTauE7f5mOBTS_tFcGMz7lVQIdQ_QXNey033P0XO5k-9kianVdLxxG= MzntNDwJCMC7cWkTFvSaRJ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49092147 48632099 48032072 47612090 46942137=20
46942189 47532210 47892184 48252199 48662228=20
49002260 48782323 47892312 47002346 47192395=20
47762440 48222461 48152365 48122326 49042328=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110408
FFGMPD
WAZ000-111530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1261
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1107 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Areas affected...Western WA (including the Olympic Peninsula and
Cascades)

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110407Z - 111530Z

SUMMARY...Strong atmospheric river activity to continue overnight
across much of western WA with a focus for additional heavy rain
and locally significant areal flooding, including potential for
debris flows, landslides and localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W WV suite along with OSPO/CIRA ALPW
data sets show a well-defined and strong atmospheric river
continuing to advance inland across western WA, with an upstream
orthogonal orientation of the deep Pacific moisture axis/plume
relative to the Olympic Peninsula and the Cascades. Satellite and
radar data continue to show areas of heavy rain impacting these
areas with recent rainfall rates in the 0.25" to 0.40"/hour range.

Much of the deeper layer trans-Pacific moisture transport into the
region continues to be aided by the positioning of a strong
subtropical ridge near and offshore of CA, and an elongated axis
of mid-level troughing from the Gulf of AK southwestward to
30N/40N and 160W. Offshore experimental CIRA LVT data is showing
some gradual slackening of the low and mid-level moisture
transport around the top side of the ridge axis, and this may
allow for some of the more widespread heavier rainfall rates to
gradually subside a bit going through the overnight hours.

However, there will be the arrival of a new Pacific cold front
across the region as shortwave energy moves into British Columbia,
and this boundary should slowly push inland and become more
oriented west/east across southern WA Thursday morning. IVT
magnitudes along the front should remain elevated for the next 6
to 12 hours, but by early Thursday morning, these values are
forecast to drop down into the 600 to 800 kg/m/s range with the
overall slackening of the low to mid-level kinematic wind field
environment.

The 00Z HREF guidance does continue to support rainfall rates in
the Olympic Peninsula of around a 0.25"/hour, but with heavier
rates occasionally reaching a 0.50"+/hour in the central and
northern WA Cascades. Going through 15Z (7AM PST) on Thursday, an
additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected for the Olympic
Peninsula, but with an additional 2 to 4 inches in the central and
northern WA Cascades.

These additional rains will exacerbate ongoing areal flooding and
especially to the river basins which are locally seeing
significant impacts. Given the amount of rainfall that has
occurred over the last few days in the Cascades in particular
(with 12 to 15+ inches locally), the terrain is particularly
sensitive, with the additional rains favoring concerns for debris
flows, landslides and potential flash flooding around areas of
steep terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!71Jepf9yev7hmkJDrRvmtLMcUq8j50D7FgYNO7kSskSH7SKK20EaAmLtVqgpFTJ6kFC0= SGJjw80lHp4zyyPnh7ywKDw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49202170 49192044 48662002 47232051 46482165=20
46642366 47412470 48122487 48372444 48112360=20
48162268 48802244=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111452
FFGMPD
WAZ000-112048-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1262
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

Areas affected...portions of western Washington State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111448Z - 112048Z

Summary...Ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall will continue to
foster excessive runoff and flood/flash flood issues through at
least 20Z/noon Pacific time.

Discussion...A persistent atmospheric river continues to spread
areas of moderate to heavy rainfall across the discussion area.=20
Recent rain rates ranging from 0.15-0.5 inch/hr have been noted -
especially in terrain-favored upslope areas of the Cascades. The
rainfall was tied to strong 700mb flow perpendicular to the
Cascades and 1 inch PW values - supporting abundant orographic
ascent and precipitation. Unfortunately, these rain rates were
continuing to impact inundated areas that have experienced 6-10
inches of rain over the past 72 hours, with widespread,
significant riverine flooding being reported as a result.

Rainfall could continue for another 4-6 hours across the region.=20
Eventually, models depict a weakening of 700mb flow over the
Cascades as mid/upper ridging builds northward into the region.=20
This may reduce acute flash flood potential, though riverine
issues will likely continue for some time.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ImXPjaEKxXDP2MXZn5DlOqZ-jEGbNw9fZaPqxDHzK7LZF4ZyYLNeT4WwF3zvzlNd8sy= HiRwBZt23t60q5z8yF4V1K8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48592119 48222044 47562035 46522081 46302172=20
46582328 47552397 48042403 48322289 48502243=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 150936
FFGMPD
ORZ000-WAZ000-152135-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1263
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Areas affected...Western WA and Northwest OR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 150935Z - 152135Z

SUMMARY...A new atmospheric river will be arriving this morning
across the Pacific Northwest. New rounds of heavy rain will be
associated with this across especially western WA and northwest
OR, and this will gradually pose a renewed threat of flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W WV suite along with OSPO/CIRA ALPW
data shows a new trans-Pacific atmospheric river approaching the
Pacific Northwest. The source region of the long-fetch moisture
transport is situated well southwest of Hawaii along 160W to 170W,
with a northeast advection of it up along and ahead of a
well-defined frontal zone that extends from Hawaii to offshore of
the West Coast. Satellite imagery and surface data also shows
additional northern stream energy and a reinforcing cold front
approaching from areas near and south of the Gulf of AK.

Over the next 6 to 12 hours, strong deep layer southwest flow with
embedded shortwave energy will approach and begin crossing the
Pacific Northwest which will drive the aforementioned offshore
fronts gradually inland across the coastal ranges. Strong warm air
advection and enhanced low to mid-level flow will drive increasing
rainfall rates across the orographically favored coastal ranges
from northwest OR up into the Olympic Peninsula and eastward into
the foothills and higher terrain of the Cascades.

Microwave-based CMORPH2 data shows heavy rainfall rates associated
with the offshore shortwave energy focused along 130W, with some
rates on the order of 0.75" to 1"/hour. This is associated with
broken areas of convection as validated by GOES-W GLM data
indicating intermittent lightning activity. Some of these heavier
rates should arrive gradually throughout the morning, and the 00Z
HREF guidance shows high probabilities (>60%) of rainfall rates
exceeding a 0.50"/hour across the Olympic Peninsula and the
foothills of the Cascades, with some low-end probabilities
(approaching 30%) of seeing these rates max out near 1"/hour in
the central and southern WA Cascades.

These high rates will coincide with the arrival of high IVT
magnitudes that will be on the order of 800 to 1000 kg/m/s into
the coastal ranges, with an inland penetration of the core IVT
plume into the Cascades. Some modest instability with MUCAPE
values up around 250+ J/kg along and just ahead of the frontal
boundaries will also be a contributor to these elevated rates.

Expect as much as 3 to 5 inches of new rainfall over the next 12
hours, with the heaviest totals over the Olympic Peninsula and the
windward slopes of the WA Cascades. Lesser amounts will be noted
over northwest OR with as much as 1 to 3 inches here involving the orographically favored terrain.

The region is extremely sensitive given the residual impacts from
the recent high-impact multi-day atmospheric river. Elevated/high
streamflows and saturated ground will support the additional rains
going into runoff that will be capable of driving renewed areas of
areal flooding. Some localized burn scar flash flooding, debris
flows and landslide activity also cannot be ruled out today.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8CSOBZPag-i-C1aXm6jQzW12n-4RBwiZpBMzlfmSn5drA27YKyMJLZE9060HaBqpt42K= 23iAiSQIlsvBBUL7myAJ6NQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49262217 49252090 48782034 47882038 46802093=20
45402127 44392175 44302231 44662313 44682399=20
45742427 47102424 48002466 48222357 47692293=20
47822252 48592230=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 152157
FFGMPD
WAZ000-160900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1264
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
456 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

Areas affected...western Washington

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152153Z - 160900Z

SUMMARY...A subtle increase in rainfall intensity is expected over
western WA through about 03Z with hourly rainfall peaking near 0.5
inches. 12 hour accumulations of 1 to 2 inches will be possible
through 09Z. While these higher rainfall intensities should remain
isolated in nature across the Olympics and Cascades, the region
remains saturated and quite sensitive due to last week's heavy
rainfall event.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES West water vapor imagery showed the
approach of a mid to upper-level vorticity max about 250 miles
west of the mouth of the Columbia River, tracking toward the ENE.
Total precipitable water values have come down since 12Z this
morning as seen in recent blended TPW imagery with 0.6 to 0.8
inches observed from the Washington coast to the Cascades at 21Z.
850-700 mb mean layer winds were observed to be 50-60 kt via KLGX
VAD wind data, forecast to decrease into the 30-45 kt range by 03Z
via recent RAP forecasts. Hourly rainfall within the upslope
regions of the Olympics and Cascades has peaked in the 0.2 to 0.3
inch range over the past 2 hours with 2-4 inches (locally higher)
observed over the past 24 hours in the Olympics and Cascades.

The arrival of the offshore vorticity max has been preceded by
cooling clouds tops on infrared satellite imagery and rainfall
rates are likely to increase again over the next few hours over
the Olympics and Cascades, at least locally, despite continued
lowering of IVT values. This will be due to increased lift ahead
of the vorticity max and the left-exit region of a powerful jet
centered near 250 mb, centered ~1000 miles west of the WA/OR
coastline. Recent GOES West DMVs measured a few points with 170 kt
(10-15 kt higher than RAP forecasts). This jet max is forecast to
continue strengthening as it translates eastward with left-exit
ascent moving across western Washington tonight.

Strengthening forcing for ascent coupled with weak elevated
instability and mean WSW flow could support a couple of isolated
hourly rainfall values near 0.5 inches and brief training of
stronger echoes. The greatest probabilities for higher rainfall
rates will occur with higher elevations/orographic lift which will
be experiencing a transition to snow as freezing levels fall in
the wake of a cold front which will limit contributions to
additional flooding for the higher elevations above 5000 ft.
However, where p-type will remain liquid, limited potential for a
few hours of hourly rainfall in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range
through 06Z (locally higher) and additional rainfall totals of 1
to 2 inches through 09Z within the windward slopes could result in
additional flood concerns for the region.

Due to the highly sensitive ground conditions, due largely in part
to last weeks atmospheric river event, any additional rainfall
will have the potential to renew or exacerbate flood concerns. The
potential will also exist for isolated landslides/debris flows
across the more sensitive regions of the Olympics and Cascades.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_ihbPIbF-hZ7NCZRjxSSeMKqV1C7qq5CnKKiK7KlcTB2BViBGIpgmm-d77a52eEHi0Iv= TvKo-4Ujjt6a7458NaeaiW8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PDT...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48992144 48882113 48732105 48482127 48352141=20
48162144 47962132 47792125 47612136 47432143=20
47192137 47092151 47042160 47032170 47012180=20
46962186 46892188 46832185 46782179 46762164=20
46732161 46542156 46422167 46342213 46392236=20
46582254 46762263 46912265 47082312 47122349=20
47292387 47592402 47922419 48092409 48102367=20
47972318 48052273 48532226 48942185=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 181400
FFGMPD
ORZ000-WAZ000-190200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1265
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
859 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Areas affected...Northwest Oregon...Far Southwest Washington...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 181400Z - 190200Z

SUMMARY...Extreme surge of moisture flux into terrain as warm
front passes will result in mid to upper slopes of coastal and
Cascade Ranges to receive up to 1"/hr rates. Localized 5-7"
totals are possible and may result in rapid rises and possible
flooding in/along streams/rivers.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W WV suite depicts a strong well
anti-cyclonically curved ridge continue to dominate the eastern
north Pacific with strong core of 150-180kt westerly 250 jet
crossing the Juan de Fuca Strait attm. At the trailing edge
increased divergence and subtle sheared shortwave is streaking
through just west of 130W. This will focus surface to boundary
layer cyclogenesis with a low 990mb low expected to lift northward
toward the Strait by 21z. The energy through the atmospheric
column is highly dynamic along and behind a surging warm front.=20
This warm front has yet to reach the Pacific Coast, but is
expected around 16-17z from south to north along the Oregon coast.
Weaker southerly flow will quickly shift with 925mb flow swinging
WSW to align through nearly the entire column to 500mb. Winds
will increase to over 60kts with occasional speeds up to 70kt.=20=20

CIRA LPW denotes the WAA aloft as just recently reached the coast
though the 850-700mb layer with core of 99th and Maximum record
values in this an 700-500mb layers (displaced further east over
central OR attm due to the gentle slope of the deeper AR as a
whole). As the warm front passes the total PWats will be over
1.25" and fluxed on that strength of wind (50-80kts from
925-700mb) will result in IVT values over 1000 kg/m/s with higher
resolution guidance suggesting localized peaks nearing 1200 kg/m/s
placing the surge toward the extreme range. While orientation to
the terrain is not fully orthogonal, the magnitude of flux
convergence and orographic ascent will support .75"/hr rates in
the mid to upper slopes of the central to northwest Oregon Coastal
Range and perhaps an hour later into the upper slopes of the
Cascades north of Lane county. These rates are expected to surge
and ebb through 00z, with an isolated 1"/hr rate possible. As
such, rainfall totals will quickly total toward 5"+ in the terrain
with rain-shadowed areas perhaps not even reaching .5". Early
arriving 12z Hi-Res CAMs suggest isolated totals over 7" by 03z
are not out of the realm of possibility. These values are pushing
24hr ARI (Average Return Intervals) definitely into the 25 year
range, with some suggestions of exceedance of 50 to 100 year
values, in the upper slopes of the central Oregon Cascades. So
the rainfall is highly atypical and therefore flooding is
possible.

FFG values in the region are static and are not likely to be
exceeded at 1 or 3hr periods but may push the 6hr+ time range.=20
Yet, NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm soil saturation remain above 70% given
the connection to last week's event that was focused further
north, and may result in above average run-off as upper profiles
will quickly saturate. As such, even the glancing blow across into
W WA could exacerbate ongoing flooding there and has been included
in the area of concern, though rates/totals would be reduced to
the core in central to northern Oregon. So any flooding is not
necessarily going to be flashy in nature but notable surge in
river levels will be noted. As such, please continue to monitor
River Forecasts from local forecast offices, Northwest River
Forecast Center, and products/discussion from the National Water
Center.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!66DWPwXIdIRzihZ8KNWR2kFs3hqm9EhGdO2Y4CVe9gNTFathDiknnp_0mkOk5RDuyJAM= -pULRKiW904eJ5HzsifTnVs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PDT...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46812171 46592138 46062138 44512157 43922193=20
43642242 43972308 44012371 44032419 44232423=20
44802415 45412406 46042402 46202370 46122328=20
45572281 45862238 46232230 46612213=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 190209
FFGMPD
ORZ000-WAZ000-190807-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1266
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
907 PM EST Thu Dec 18 2025

Areas affected...portions of western Oregon and southwestern
Washington State

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190207Z - 190807Z

Summary...Flood/flash flood potential continues as a strong
atmospheric river traverses the area through 08Z/midnight Pacific
Time.

Discussion...Flood/flash flood potential continues across the
discussion area. A strong, landfalling atmospheric river
continues to produce areas of 0.25-0.5 inch/hr rain rates across
the region - highest across upwind, terrain-favored areas. This
heavy rainfall regime has persisted for some time, resulting in
around 1-3 inches of rainfall over the past 12 hours. These rain
rates have contributed to at least isolated instances of excessive
runoff and impacts in some areas. Soils are wet and streamflows
are high across the region - especially where the heaviest
rainfall has occurred.

Models/observations suggest that at least another 3-5 hours of
rainfall is expected across the discussion area, with 0.25+
inch/hr rain rates and 1-1.5 inch totals potentially occurring
through 08Z/midnight Pacific Time. Over time, a front will
migrate from northwest to southeast across the discussion area,
resulting in a gradual southeastward shift in the heaviest
rainfall rates as peak low-level flow shifts toward central and
southwestern Oregon. Areas of flooding/flash flooding remain
possible given the sensitive ground conditions that are readily
supporting excessive runoff.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_X7D6LBwyUIHGeozsPitQ2wTaN1VLJ2UMr87Cg64CYGoqaeZGBU2fXqJmKxikY9qKDSi= aP51iJ_xHhCZfbG7AsZ1cSk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFR...PDT...PQR...SEW...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47402191 47322132 46512095 45332117 44172139=20
43472199 43212283 43812402 43902436 46612426=20
46422320 46132280 46082242 46922217=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 210616
FFGMPD
CAZ000-211812-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1267
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
113 AM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern and central California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 210612Z - 211812Z

Summary...Onset of a long-duration heavy rain hazard is underway
as an atmospheric river makes landfall across central and northern
California. Upwind regions of high terrain could experience
periods of 0.5-1.0 inch/hr rain rates. Flash flooding is likely
through the morning hours.

Discussion...Recent radar/MRMS data depicts an uptick in heavy
rainfall/rain rates across northern and central California
currently. The greatest rates were occurring across coastal
ranges north/northwest of San Francisco, where strengthening, west-southwesterly 850mb flow (around 40 knots) was oriented
perpendicular to ridgelines/terrain in that area. The combination
of orographic ascent and 1.5 inch PW values located just upstream
of the area were supporting areas of 0.25-0.5 inch measured rain
rates over the past hour or so.

Models/observations suggest that the ongoing areas of heavy rain
will only expand and increase in intensity with time. 850mb
should increase into the 40-50 knot range over the next few hours
while impinging upon upwind slopes of the Sierra and northern
California coastal ranges. This will allow for areas of 0.5 to 1
inch/hr rain rates to materialize in terrain-favored areas and
persist for 6+ hours.=20

USGS Streamflow and NASA SPoRT-LiS Soil Moistures suggest ground
conditions can handle initial rainfall with somewhat dry initial
soil conditions and modest flow in local streams. Multiple hours
of heavier rainfall will likely make ground conditions more
favorable for excessive runoff and flood/flash flood impacts over
time. The greatest risk for flood/flash flood instances will
occur from 09Z/1a Pacific Time, and multiple instances of
excessive runoff are expected through 18Z/10a.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6UfaRemdCkGYpLIhlFPONIeYmwwruTOcraTfEqSSeTpLE3--jvLref83zgvivudYXlzW= v-lQ7zarJ1Nt1ckhghWBPRM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...MFR...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41962247 41542157 40852066 39602031 37971979=20
38042048 38322109 38922152 38772195 38162219=20
37902249 38402334 39852421 41912439 41932330=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 211824
FFGMPD
NVZ000-CAZ000-ORZ000-220620-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1268
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
123 PM EST Sun Dec 21 2025

Areas affected...central to northern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 211820Z - 220620Z

Summary...A long-duration heavy rain event will continue through
tonight. 12 hour rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches for the Coastal
Ranges and 3 to 7 inches for the Sierra Nevada are expected
through 06Z (locally higher possible). Peak hourly rainfall of
0.50 to 0.75 inches is likely with isolated values up to 1 inch,
likely translating into flood/flash flood impacts across the
region.

Discussion...Moderate to heavy rain was occurring as of 18Z from
roughly Point Arena, CA to southern OR with peak hourly rainfall
between 0.5 and 0.75 inches, but with values locally up to 1 inch.
An atmospheric river containing PW values between 1.0 and 1.4
inches along the northern CA coast and southwesterly 850-700 mb
winds of 40-50 kt were present. 24 hour gauge reports of 3-6
inches (King Range) and 4-7 inches (north-central Sierra Nevada)
were observed through 18Z and the northern CA region has
experienced 200 to 400 percent of normal over the past week. There
have been several reports of flooding and landslides over the past
few hours within the northern Coastal Ranges and a couple of
landslides reported within the Sierra Nevada.

The approach of a positively tilted shortwave trough axis off of
the Pacific Northwest coast will continue to advance ESE over the
next 12 hours, allowing for a slow southward movement to the axis
of highest moisture transport down the CA coastline. As this
occurs, PWs are forecast to lower slightly and 850-700 mb winds
should weaken about 10 kt through 06Z with IVT values of 800
kg/m/s lowering into the 600-700 kg/m/s range. Steady peak hourly
rainfall values of 0.50 to 0.75 inches are likely to continue over
the next 6-12 hours. 12Z HREF probabilities showed 40 to 80
percent probabilities of exceeding 0.5 in/hr through 02Z for the
central to northern CA Coastal Ranges north of San Francisco and
40 to 90+ percent for the north-central to northern Sierra Nevada
through at least 06Z. Meanwhile, hourly probabilities for 1+
inches in an hour are near or less than 10 percent through the
overnight.

Given wet antecedent conditions over the past week, including 24
hour rainfall, the addition of another 2 to 6+ inches is likely to
result in additional flooding, landslides/mudslides and debris
flows. Where overlap of high rain rates occurs with sensitive burn
scars or urban areas, more rapid flooding/flash flooding can be
expected.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-N3fonV1wnIiFTFf7U_Ok7Dt2UfKXjgzF4Wstna-jHDUM2PoHkO-k6Iapux8XqvGKO4P= j7M3a0cP32dAi1_XlY33J7s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MFR...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42022284 41832164 41492099 40542042 39901995=20
38651967 38301964 38142001 38202058 38022121=20
37712152 37302170 36992188 36762237 37242297=20
37532336 38612413 40252494 41812489=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 220730
FFGMPD
CAZ000-221529-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1269
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 AM EST Mon Dec 22 2025

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220729Z - 221529Z

Summary...Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue for
several more hours across upslope/western sides of the Sierra,
prompting flood/flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Recent radar/observational data depict continued
areas of moderate to heavy rainfall along upslope sides of the
Sierra in central/northeastern California. The rainfall continues
as part of a landfalling atmospheric river across the region, with
40 knots of 850mb flow oriented perpendicular to the Sierra
promoting abundant orographic ascent. Additionally, 1-1.3 inch PW
values are continuing to enhance rainfall rates across the region.
Furthermore, the persistence of the atmospheric river has
resulted in a focused area of 3-6 inch rainfall totals over the
past 12 hours especially in the Tahoe and Lassen National Forests
(east of an axis from Chico to Sacramento). Some instances of
flooding/flash flooding and landslides have occurred, which isn't
surprising given moderate MRMS Flash outputs and elevated
streamflows per the USGS Water Dashboard.

Ongoing trends should continue for several more hours. 850mb flow
should remain perpendicular to the Sierra through at least 15Z/7a
Pacific Time, prompting continued rainfall and runoff. Models
suggest that flow should gradually slacken into the 20-25 knot
range during that time frame, which should decrease orographic
ascent and rain rates with time. Nevertheless, ground conditions
continue to be sensitive and additional 0.25+ inch/hr rates are
likely to continue. Flooding/flash flooding, debris flows, and
landslides continue to be possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5iyvhhDbMLgpO0wdYJ0o3ApbhFqsnmdhB0ihXtI6v_mJfBQI739WZFXdnVdpfWrLxa66= -c7qLMepHMB4TgFXu1YM5yk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40692210 40622126 39852056 38821992 37971968=20
37641982 37902072 39222187 40052233=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240852
FFGMPD
CAZ000-242049-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1270
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 240849Z - 242049Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall was beginning to develop across western
portions of the Transverse Ranges. The rain will expand in
coverage through 20Z/noon Pacific Time. Widespread 3-5 inch
totals are expected, with isolated 8-inch amounts possible. A
dangerous scenario is unfolding, with widespread and significant
impacts from flash flooding and debris flows expected.

Discussion...The onset of a landfalling atmospheric river was
beginning to increase rain rates across the western Transverse
Ranges over the past hour or so (per radar mosaic/MRMS). The
rainfall was associated with an axis of very strong
south-southwesterly low-level flow (50+ knots at 850mb) beginning
to make eastward progress into the discussion area. This flow was
oriented perpendicularly to the Transverse Ranges, promoting
strong orographic lift/ascent of an abundantly moist airmass (PW
values from 1-1.5 inch per SPC Mesonanalyses). Weak surface-based
instability was evident near immediate coastal areas as well. The
regime was already beginning to spread 0.5-0.8 inch/hr rain rates
into Santa Barbara County over the past hour.

The overall pattern will shift only slowly eastward across the
discussion area as a strong low pressure area west of Eureka, CA
migrates northeastward/inland toward the Pacific Northwest. Heavy
rainfall will increase in coverage and intensity through the next
6-12 hours as well. A few areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates can be
expected, and 3-5 inch totals (with local amounts reaching 8
inches) can be expected across the Transverse Ranges through
20Z/noon Pacific time. This rain will fall on sensitive terrain
(i.e., burn scars, low-lying areas) creating a potentially
dangerous scenario for widespread rapid runoff, flash flooding,
debris flows, and rock/land slides. Significant impacts are
expected in this regime.

Other areas displaced from the Transverse Ranges could experience
heavy rain as well (1-3 inch amounts). Flash flooding could occur
- especially in urban areas and over burn scars.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5v6fNz6JRQ5fk-0hyZxoJYFxEGoCCYMVkWJrrpQsthUeto2mTJiSOx38Ww8po5CA8mfd= Gm2Qv9XSl3e2HhlGEHt32pQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37651974 37051892 36301813 35571804 35061803=20
34731784 34541734 34251686 34061670 33921714=20
33301749 33911887 34442054 35222101 35852150=20
36312170 36322135 35922080 35371996 35431941=20
36031933 36931957 37371990=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241016
FFGMPD
CAZ000-241614-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1271
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
515 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern and central California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241014Z - 241614Z

Summary...Areas of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue across
the discussion area through around 16Z/8a Pacific Time.
Flood/flash flood concerns could exist near sensitive ground
conditions (urban areas, burn scars, and near flooded water sheds).

Discussion...A strong area of low pressure was moving slowly
northeastward toward northwestern California near Eureka this
morning. Ahead of this low, strong low-level flow (50-70 knots at
850mb) has developed across the discussion area that was advecting
a very moist airmass (1-1.2 inch PW values) through much of the
region. Additionally, weak surface-based buoyancy near coastal
areas was noted per mesoanalyses. The result of this pattern has
been several areas of moderate to heavy rainfall that has
exhibited an uptick in intensity over the past 1-2 hours.=20
Low-level flow against upslope areas has promoted localized
0.2-0.4 inch/hr rain rates, and these rates are expected to
continue (or perhaps increase into the 0.5 inch/hr range) through
the overnight and early morning hours. Additionally, heavier
convective development was noted just offshore of central coastal
areas.

These conditions are expected to continue through around 16Z or so
as a front sweeps eastward across the discussion area. Ahead of
this front, areas of 0.25-0.5 inch/hr rain rates should continue
especially in terrain-favored areas. Additionally, deeper
convective development approaching the central coastal ranges
should eventually impact urban areas in/near San Francisco over
the next 1-3 hours (through 13Z/5a Pacific) that could result in
urban flash flooding. The ongoing threat of flooding and flash
flooding should gradually end from west to east, but should also
be most pronounced near 1) burn scars, 2) urban areas, and 3)
watersheds that have already experienced heavier rainfall over the
past week (upslope Sierra areas) that have wet soils and
anomalously strong streamflows. Flash flooding is possible in
this scenario.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!90s1Les1NlfJHKgB8Pm6TKIGfAJycEhNlKEi1VyWTlT_l0v2PlSAcKXbKz2Mfl29lBSY= abJ58tD_UjcTZnBlv5-zHDE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MFR...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41562233 41042137 40172081 38281986 37841933=20
37111911 37472000 37942098 37052106 35942083=20
35332100 36042177 37872288 40112426 40732426=20
41032393=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241517
FFGMPD
CAZ000-242215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1272
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1015 AM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Areas affected...Central Valley into the Sierra Nevada Foothills

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241515Z - 242215Z

SUMMARY...Significant atmospheric river activity continues to ride
up through the Central Valley and into the Sierra Nevada foothills
with heavy rainfall rates. Areas of flooding and some flash
flooding will continue to be likely.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR satellite imagery shows an
impressive fanning out of cold cloud tops across the Central
Valley and into the Sierra Nevada as a full-latitude trough
offshore of the West Coast continues to channel a strong deep
layer atmospheric river inland across the region.

A surface cold front has been making steady progress eastward this
morning and has pushed east of the Bay Area and into the Central
Valley. Radar imagery shows a well-defined and dynamically forced
convective line just ahead of the cold front making its way closer
to the Sierra Nevada foothills with rainfall rates that are on the
order of 0.75" to 1"/hour. These rainfall rates are being
facilitated by MUCAPE values of as much as 100 to 250 J/kg ahead
of the cold front, but even more so by the very strong low-level
moisture convergence riding up through the Central Valley and with
impressively divergent flow aloft downstream of the offshore upper
trough.

Enhanced rainfall rates of up to 1"/hour will continue with these
convective elements ahead of the cold front as it advances
gradually eastward over the next several hours. The additional aid
of orographic ascent into the Sierra Nevada foothills will further
support the enhancement of rainfall rates. Given the strongly
anomalous degree of moisture through the column including some
tropical origins of the atmospheric river, the rainfall will be
quite efficient, with additional totals through mid-afternoon of
as much as 2 to 4 inches.

Additional areas of flooding and some flash flooding will be
likely, including portions of the Central Valley and into the
Sierra Nevada foothills. Localized urban flooding impacts will
continue to be a concern, and for areas in the terrain, localized
burn scar flash flooding will be a threat. Can't rule out some
landslide activity as well near areas of steep terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!53-BwiZrl9T80oxjrbDTjD5St9EgADRAizby-f106X4xaimzSLI6Rng1qTi5hYs__yXH= NMi1oDBw2dNyDiht0mBs2c4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...REV...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40072068 39912039 39302013 38461984 37561932=20
36731859 36231827 35571843 35281882 35281945=20
35572006 35812034 36392080 37342095 39002111=20
39862104=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241951
FFGMPD
NVZ000-CAZ000-250600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1273
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EST Wed Dec 24 2025

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 241950Z - 250600Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rainfall with dangerous and locally
life-threatening flash flooding impacts will continue to impact
portions of southern and eastern CA going into the evening hours
as strong atmospheric river activity continues.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows a significant
atmospheric river bringing heavy rain across large areas of
southern CA including the Los Angeles Basin, the adjacent high
terrain of the Transverse Range, the southern Sierra Nevada and
also adjacent interior desert valley locations. A deep
full-latitude trough offshore of the West Coast continues to shift
gradually eastward and is allowing for a cold front to advance
inland through southern CA.

This continues to help focus deep and very moist south-southwest
flow up out of the eastern tropical-Pacific and across the region
with enhanced IVT magnitudes of near 1000 kg/m/s aimed into
portions of Los Angeles, Orange and San Bernadino Counties. This
also includes the southwest facing slopes of the San Gabriel and
San Bernadino Mountains where enhanced orographic ascent coupled
with deep layer forcing and frontal convergence is yielding high
rainfall rates of locally over 1"/hour.

Over the next several hours, the cold front will continue to
settle south and east, which will allow for heavy rain to arrive
over the Peninsular Range of southern CA while also overspreading
interior areas of eastern CA including some of the desert
locations adjacent to the high terrain of the southern Sierra
Nevada.

The greatest short-term rainfall impacts and flash flooding
concerns will likely be over Kern, Ventura, Los Angeles, Orange,
and San Bernadino Counties, with eventually areas of Riverside and
San Diego Counties getting into heavy rainfall later this
afternoon and evening. Some of the rates for the aforementioned
southwest facing slopes of the high terrain will continue to be
locally near or over 1"/hour which is supported by the
experimental WoFS guidance which has a particular focus over the
next 6 hours across eastern parts of Los Angeles County, southwest
parts of San Bernadino County, and also Orange County.

Additional rainfall totals of 3 to 5+ inches going through late
this evening will be possible for the orographically favored high
terrain of southern CA, with as much as 1 to 3 inches elsewhere
including portions of eastern CA near the southern Sierra Nevada.
Some interior valley locations away from the terrain may even see
as much as 1 inch of rain.

Dangerous and locally life-threatening flash flooding is expected
going into the evening hours across southern CA which include
concerns for not only urban flash flooding, but also mud and
landslide activity, and debris flows near and adjacent to the more
sensitive burn scar locations. Areas of flash flooding will also
be a concern for eastern CA where heavy rains here also contribute
to enhanced runoff. This will include some open dry wash areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7iaagVot710bq-Swn8BA3WE_eOkheyqa6GwSFP3zaElDXOGKFOhl3OT5u2VyvOUtC3bb= n5cnUe0YP-mJZyyxD3M1o1M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37091767 36531652 35781566 35011537 34351558=20
33801566 33051589 32591620 32511726 33451806=20
33651851 34151951 34821971 35921915 36921862=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 250803
FFGMPD
CAZ000-251800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1274
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Areas affected...portions of northern, central and southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 250759Z - 251800Z

SUMMARY...Another round of heavy rain will approach central and
southern CA tonight into Christmas morning. Peak hourly rainfall
of 0.5 to 1.0 inches is expected, with isolated hourly totals over
1 inch. Due to recent heavy rainfall and areas of ongoing
flooding, renewed areas of flood/flash flooding are likely from an
additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall (locally higher) through ~18Z.

DISCUSSION...GOES West water vapor/infrared satellite imagery from
07Z showed a mid-level vorticity max near 39N 127W with a
southward extending trough axis, advancing toward the northeast. A
surface low was associated with the vorticity max containing an
attached occluded/cold front extending to the south. Infrared
imagery and lightning data showed a line of showers/thunderstorms
just ahead of the front, advancing closer to the central CA coast.
This feature was located ahead of a broader closed low aloft, with
steepening lapse rates in the 850-500 mb layer edging eastward
central to northern CA.

While the primary moisture axis from Wednesday has moved into the
lower CO River Valley, layered PW imagery from OSPO showed a
secondary moisture axis just ahead of the offshore cold front with
blended TPW values of 0.8 to 0.9 inches. Instability along the
coast and within the Sacramento/San Joaquin Valley was less than
500 J/kg and should stay that way over the next 6-12 hours with
some fluctuations up/down over time via recent RAP forecasts. RAP
guidance also showed 850-700 mb winds from the south to
south-southwest increasing into the 60-65 kt range from near San
Francisco Bay to the northern Sacramento Valley ahead of the front
which will likely be accompanied by a band of
showers/thunderstorms sweeping inland containing peak hourly
rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches. The band will impact central to
northern coastal locations first, followed by inland locations
across the Sacramental Valley into the Sierra Nevada foothills.
The band of heavy rain will also begin to advance southward down
the Santa Lucia Range into the western Transverse Ranges between
12Z and 18Z. Post-frontal low level axes of convergence could
support additional narrow bands of showers/thunderstorms with
brief training across central to northern CA locations with peak
hourly rainfall near 0.5 inches.

Through ~18Z, peak additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is
expected (locally higher) for the Coastal Ranges into the Sierra
Nevada foothills (below snow levels of ~5000 ft). This additional
rainfall, coupled with brief high rates, should allow for areas of
renewed flooding/flash flooding across urban/terrain and low-lying
locations through 18Z. Due to saturated soils, the potential for landslides/debris flows will exist, including any sensitive burn
scar locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Fy7N2vCbkgdsoukSqdAcxFlbzgguN4-zro9adZVuZDI_-2AgrwuRP_VHaaYvYkSzowB= F8uDF9qksst-8nX1MlQ43cs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MFR...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41222225 40912174 40102152 39872122 39182064=20
38632033 37621963 36411861 36311931 36131974=20
35721981 35191938 34581808 34011806 33771847=20
33841954 34132068 34802148 35772178 37082281=20
38992416 40242462 40682433 40842312=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 251813
FFGMPD
CAZ000-260600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1275
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
110 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 251810Z - 260600Z

SUMMARY...Additional atmospheric river surge to impact central and
southern CA going into the evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall
rates coupled with extremely sensitive conditions on the ground
from previous rainfall will promote additional areas of flash
flooding with locally dangerous and life-threatening impacts
possible.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W visible satellite imagery shows a secondary
cold front and associated atmospheric river surge advancing down
across areas of central and southern CA with a particular focus on
the Transverse Range and nearby areas of the Los Angeles Basin.
While this surge of moisture is certainly more modest compared to
yesterday, the additional rainfall associated with this will be
falling on areas that have seen as much as 6 to 12+ inches of rain
over the last 36 hours, and especially in the San Gabriel and San
Bernadino Mountains.

The latest CW3E IVT analyses suggest as much as 500 kg/m/s of IVT
will be moving through the Transverse Range and Los Angeles Basin
region going through this afternoon and into at least the early
part of this evening. Lesser magnitudes will continue to impact
areas farther north extending into the southern Sierra Nevada.
There is some meaningful instability with MUCAPE values near 500
J/kg situated along the offshore portion of the front, and the
latest GOES-W and CMORPH2 microwave-driven data does show some
convective showers with heavier rainfall rates offshore. These
showers are likely to move inland over the next several hours, and
the orthogonal orientation of the low to mid-level flow in general
relative to the terrain should further support locally enhanced
rainfall rates.

A look at the 12Z HREF guidance and experimental guidance
including the latest NSSL/MPAS and WoFS solutions suggests a slow
southeast advance of shower activity down into the Los Angeles
Basin along with the adjacent terrain. Some rainfall rates going
through early this evening are likely to exceed a 0.50"/hour with
some spotty, but stronger convective showers near the terrain
potentially fostering rates as high as 1"/hour. Additional
rainfall totals going through early this evening may reach as high
as 2 to 4 inches over the higher terrain, with 1 to 2 inches in
the lower elevations.

Given the new rounds of heavy rainfall, and extremely sensitive
antecedent conditions, additional areas of flash flooding are
likely with potential for dangerous and life-threatening impacts.
This will include localized urban flash flooding concerns, a
threat for new mud and rockslide activity, and also debris flows
near and adjacent to any burn scar areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9tCd1fNUm3drPEqqNgsb-dyEzZuFTsPMoi3SvR4sV8id1rDF_qoI-bDx33w-rZvHuMCg= pTnQ6c56bFOr857iq0_-lF0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...MTR...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37191917 36801870 36261839 35631845 35031837=20
34701782 34331738 33891750 33751824 33851892=20
34211976 34382045 34732060 35202058 35902039=20
36871969=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 252108
FFGMPD
CAZ000-260900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1276
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central and Northern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 252105Z - 260900Z

SUMMARY...New rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon through this evening for areas of central
and northern CA, including the Bay Area. Given the saturated soil
conditions and high streamflows, additional areas of flooding and
flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-W IR/WV suite shows a deep upper
trough and associated closed low offshore of the West Coast.
Shortwave impulses continue to round the base of the trough and
take aim on central and northern CA, with each impulse effectively
driving renewed atmospheric river activity into the state.

Solar insolation has facilitated sufficient levels of boundary
layer heating across the northern portions of the Central Valley
to result in SBCAPE values as high as 500 to 750 J/kg. This
heating coupled with relatively divergent flow aloft downstream of
the deep offshore upper trough/closed 500 mb low center will
facilitate an increase in convective showers in the near-term
across sizable areas of the Central Valley. Some locally organized line-segments will be possible given the elevated bulk shear
parameters (30 to 50 kts), and this actually may become aligned
with the deep layer flow for some periodic instances of
cell-training.

However, of greater significance will be the approach of a
well-organized shortwave impulse rounding the base of the upper
trough heading into the early evening hours. This shortwave energy
which is well-depicted by the axis of cold convective cloud tops
in IR satellite imagery along 125W to 130W will be ejecting
northeast toward the northern CA coastal ranges in the 00Z to 03Z
time frame, including the Bay Area. Thereafter, this new surge of
energy and related Pacific-moisture transport should eject into
the Central Valley and Sierra Nevada foothills. The coastal ranges
and Sacramento Valley in particular will see the greatest IVT
magnitudes. The 12Z GFS/ECMWF solutions suggest IVT values
reaching into the 500 to 600 kg/m/s range with the aid of stronger
low to mid-level southwest flow.

The combination of this along with large-scale forcing/shear and
at least modest boundary layer instability should set the stage
for more organized bands of convection to approach the coastal
ranges and then advance inland going into the evening hours. Heavy
rainfall rates of 0.50" to 1"+/hour will be likely with these new
rounds of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity.

Additional rainfall totals by late this evening of 2 to 3 inches
will be possible locally for the coastal ranges and especially the
upslope areas of the northern Sierra Nevada foothills. Lesser
totals of as much as 1 to 2 inches cannot ruled out in at least
parts of the Sacramento Valley. By late this evening, this latest
surge of energy and moisture should settle farther south into
coastal ranges south of the Bay Area and adjacent areas of the
Central Valley.

Given the saturated soil conditions and high streamflows, these
additional rains are likely to result in more areas of areal
flooding and flash flooding, which will include urban flooding
impacts (San Francisco, Sacramento, Chico and Redding all at risk)
along with localized mud and landslide activity near areas of
higher terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-ottk6EO9X3DhmXLkaq_LhrYqExDpVA8k2z7-Xyqo_Zc6oWbZCMKZU6FtSSO45tk8kVr= vCEtkGhTo7CKh2iK1cj_1jE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...HNX...LOX...MFR...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41192196 40352163 39952136 39572073 39012031=20
38592000 37901945 37291920 36791979 35902040=20
35112065 35182118 35912190 37202260 37972308=20
39012405 39682433 40372428 40802375 40872295=20
41122238=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260614
FFGMPD
CAZ000-261000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1277
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
113 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Areas affected...western Transverse Ranges / southern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 260612Z - 261000Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding is likely to continue across
the western Transverse Ranges through 10Z (2 AM PST). Peak hourly
rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches and additional rainfall over the
next 4 hours of 1 to 2 inches is expected, mainly from eastern
Santa Barbara into Ventura counties.

DISCUSSION...MRMS reflectivity and local gauge reports showed
moderate to heavy rain continued to track across the Channel
Islands into the western Transverse Ranges. Hourly rainfall has
varied between 0.5 and 1.0 inches since 00Z and 3-hr totals ranged
from roughly 0.75 to 1.5 inches ending 06Z, mainly within central
Ventura County. This region of the western Transverse Ranges has
been situated within a relative max in precipitable water values
between 1.0 and 1.2 inches with a localized max observed on OSPO
Layered PW imagery from the surface to ~500 mb pointed into the
western Transverse Ranges. 850-700 mb layer winds were from the S
to SSW at 25-40 kt with little change over the past few hours. The
00Z VBG sounding and more recent aircraft-derived soundings showed
instability was weak (MLCAPE less than or equal to 250 J/kg) and
shallow, limiting lightning potential.

Nearly stationary to perhaps slow eastward translation is forecast
for the moisture axis through 10Z, out ahead of a larger scale
mid/upper level trough axis over the eastern Pacific. Therefore,
similar ingredients should remain in place for the region with
850-700 mb winds between 25-40 kt supporting IVT values between
300-500 kg/m/s. Weak/shallow instability combined with orographic
ascent into the terrain will continue to favor peak hourly
rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0 inches. Additional rainfall through 10Z of
1-2 inches is expected (mainly within eastern Santa Barbara into
Ventura County) which is likely to maintain localized flash
flooding due to saturated soils and the majority of additional
rainfall becoming runoff.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7xdk377ew3-HfJXl6wWFOeZ5TCj1i389a59mUWjUuYeZNMCESE3gRtvArR_MIkdiH-sG= PqIOgdVI09d7-rdd3wKjnfM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35222013 34881960 34961930 34941907 34771869=20
34691858 34181855 33921903 34241965 34402042=20
34842055=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260859
FFGMPD
CAZ000-261800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1278
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Areas affected...eastern Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys into
Sierra Nevada Foothills

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260856Z - 261800Z

SUMMARY...A localized concern for additional flooding/flash
flooding will exist across portions of the Sacramento and San
Joaquin Valleys into the Sierra Nevada foothills through roughly
18Z. Peak hourly rainfall of 0.25 to 0.5 inches will be possible,
along with isolated hourly rainfall in excess of 0.5 inches.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery from 0845Z showed scattered
showers extending from the southern Sacramento Valley into the
northern San Joaquin Valley and eastward into the Sierra Nevada.
RAP analysis data and GPS-derived PWs ranged from 0.5 to 0.9
inches and 850-700 mb winds were 30-50 kt from the southwest. Low
level convergence has helped to focus a couple of SW to NE
oriented axes of showers with brief training and hourly rainfall
locally in excess of 0.5 inches per MRMS data. However,
surrounding gauge data and a vast majority of the region contained
peak hourly rainfall in the 0.25 to 0.50 inch range.

As a longwave upper level trough axis over the eastern Pacific
continues to translate eastward over the next 12 hours, total PW
values and 850-700 mb wind speeds are forecast to gradually lower
through 18Z which should have the effect of reducing higher hourly
rainfall potential. Snow levels varied from 5000 ft (northern
locations) to 8000 ft (southern locations) across the Sierra
Nevada and lowering of these values will occur as the upper trough
and colder air moves inland today. Until then however, localized
potential will remain for brief areas of heavy rain with an
additional 1-2 inches expected for some locations through 18Z. Due
to largely saturated soils in many locations from recent heavy
rainfall, additional heavy rainfall may lead to isolated
flood/flash flooding including the possibility of
landslides/mudslides.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!45fiue6QPyLVEwXtDh44fVO0rFR_8ROvcippO1XrAHZq_0Qqenz0GymvvfOdP477gfGz= 6QOztOkgmfg_Ye0ShoHvXw8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39552097 39132068 38832050 38532036 38082008=20
37741980 37371944 36931893 36101864 35491856=20
35401886 35721919 36281965 37002024 37722093=20
38682127 39302143=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260937
FFGMPD
CAZ000-261900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1279
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
437 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Areas affected...northern CA coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260935Z - 261900Z

SUMMARY...Isolated pockets of showers containing hourly rainfall
in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range will continue a limited threat for
flooding/flash flooding across portions of the northern CA coast
through about 19Z.

DISCUSSION...0930Z water vapor imagery from GOES West showed a
mid-level low/vorticity max ~150 miles west of Cape Mendocino,
slowly advancing easGPS PWstward toward the northern CA coast.
GPS-derived PW values along the northern CA coast were 0.4 to 0.6
inches with 850-700 mb mean layer winds peaking near 40 kt from
the southwest. Increasing ascent ahead of the approaching low to
mid-level low and a subtle increase in IVT values (up to ~350
kg/m/s) are expected to bring yet another round of locally heavy
rain to the region through the remainder of the night into the
late morning.

Peak hourly rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50 inches will be possible as
the low approaches where weak and shallow MLCAPE up to ~500 J/kg
will be present per recent RAP forecasts. While these rates are
not typically a problem for the climatologically wet northern CA
coast, 7-day rainfall values are well above average and saturated
to nearly saturated soils could be sensitive to additional
rainfall. There will be potential for an additional inch or so of
rain through 19Z which may result in isolated landslides/mudslides
and/or urban flooding through the rest of the morning hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Vw0XqGFU03csV-wfMBmpT0d0WXdFw0HrhGqWokZzyE-GZOTnBx0SSfHr-uFvB6MrfzX= sbgMD0ba3LMH2B4sF7Hvwd4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41252417 41232369 40852368 40352349 40052341=20
39722325 39282297 38762261 38562324 38892388=20
39392423 40222470 40722458 41112433=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 260943
FFGMPD
CAZ000-261900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1279...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
443 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Corrected for typo and addition within first paragraph

Areas affected...northern CA coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260935Z - 261900Z

SUMMARY...Isolated pockets of showers containing hourly rainfall
in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range will continue a limited threat for
flooding/flash flooding across portions of the northern CA coast
through about 19Z.

DISCUSSION...0930Z water vapor imagery from GOES West showed a
mid-level low/vorticity max ~150 miles west of Cape Mendocino,
slowly advancing eastward toward the northern CA coast.
GPS-derived PW values along the northern CA coast were 0.4 to 0.6
inches with 850-700 mb mean layer winds peaking near 40 kt from
the southwest. While the corresponding surface low (992 mb) is
expected to weaken over the next 6-12 hours, increasing ascent
ahead of the approaching low to mid-level low and a subtle
increase in IVT values (up to ~350 kg/m/s) are expected to bring
yet another round of locally heavy rain to the region through the
remainder of the night into the late morning.

Peak hourly rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50 inches will be possible as
the low approaches where weak and shallow MLCAPE up to ~500 J/kg
will be present per recent RAP forecasts. While these rates are
not typically a problem for the climatologically wet northern CA
coast, 7-day rainfall values are well above average and saturated
to nearly saturated soils could be sensitive to additional
rainfall. There will be potential for an additional inch or so of
rain through 19Z which may result in isolated landslides/mudslides
and/or urban flooding through the rest of the morning hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7cUis92kCnAv1SYIX1BnkZfC8PO2z0muo6pS5fcSJJR-u8sv3L0rZAz7Zy5cTv2v7Azu= HfhxekhLcAPq-eldFmJi8x8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41252417 41232369 40852368 40352349 40052341=20
39722325 39282297 38762261 38562324 38892388=20
39392423 40222470 40722458 41112433=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261035
FFGMPD
CAZ000-262000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1280
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
535 AM EST Fri Dec 26 2025

Areas affected...Transverse Ranges to southern CA coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261034Z - 262000Z

SUMMARY...Areas of flash flooding will continue to affect portions
of the Transverse Ranges to the coast overnight into the late
morning hours. Hourly rainfall values of 0.5 to 1.0 inches
(locally higher) are likely which will maintain concerns for
impacts including landslides/debris flows and urban flooding.

DISCUSSION...1015Z radar imagery combined with local mesonet and
personal weather observations out of southern CA continued to show
areas of heavy rain within a narrow axis from the offshore waters
into mainly Ventura County. Hourly rainfall over 1 inch has been
observed in Ventura County with 3-hour totals of 1 to 2+ inches.
Local Wunderground gauges showed a couple of 30 minute rainfall
values over 0.5 inches within the past 2-3 hours near Ojai. These
rains were associated with a slow moving low level convergence
axis (remnant frontal boundary) that was oriented SSW to NNE
across Ventura County with PW values of 1.0 to 1.2 inches along
the coast and SSW 850-700 mb winds of 25-35 kt. Enhanced
divergence aloft may also be contributing to increased rainfall
intensity over the region, within the right-entrance region of a
150 kt jet streak aloft located over the Sierra Nevada.

Short term forecasts from the RAP show the low level convergence
axis and localized max in IVT values (up to 500 kg/m/s) slowly
advancing eastward over the next 6-9 hours. The result will be
localized high rain rates into the terrain, slowly shifting east,
given the favorable orthogonal orientation of the low level winds
to the axis of terrain. Hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches
should advance eastward from Ventura County into Los Angeles
County through 15Z, possibly clearing Los Angeles County after
roughly 17Z. While the greatest potential for these higher rates
will be in the upslope favored terrain, shallow/weak instability
up to ~250 J/kg and short term training could support 0.5+ inch
hourly rainfall into the lower elevation urban areas as well.
Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will be possible through 20Z
with potential for higher impact localized flash flooding over
sensitive burn scar locations in and around the Los Angeles metro.
Given heavy rain over the past 2 days, many locations contain
saturated soils with additional rainfall likely translating
directly into runoff. With this rainfall, there will be the
potential for dangerous travel and life-threatening impacts from
flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-LZMtVUrN3iB_BZn50erNlgWuVFx2Gz-S7kpwOFNwFuPHWglkqMScRyfzLUyJeQPHOuE= N6Uq6vXg3BsEMf321O9Vt3M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34811863 34471778 34201694 33671672 33361764=20
33471824 33761916 34071955 34451952 34761922=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 281003
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-281600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1281
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
502 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Areas affected...northern MO/southeastern IA/north-central
IL/northwestern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281000Z - 281600Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible from portions
of northern MO, southeastern IA into north-central IL and
northwestern IN through 16Z (10 AM CST). Rainfall of 1 to 2 inches
in an hour will be possible with isolated 3 to 6 hour totals of
2-3 inches.

DISCUSSION...0945Z radar imagery Midwest showed scattered showers
and embedded thunderstorms from northern MO, southern IA and
central IL, located north of a quasi-stationary front that
extended eastward from a 998 mb low just west of Salina, KS. SW to
WSW 850 mb winds of 30-50 kt were in place to the east of the
surface low with overrunning occurring atop the frontal boundary.
OSPO ALPW imagery showed low level moisture rapidly advecting
northward into the central U.S. beneath a plume of mid to upper
level moisture with origins in the tropical eastern Pacific. Total
PW values were estimated to be between 1.1 and 1.4 inches (SPC
mesoanalysis) from eastern KS into western IN, which equate to +4
to +5 standardized anomalies. The low level moisture return was
allowing for the northward advection of instability and erosion of
low level CINH amid 700-500 mb lapse rates of 7.0 to 7.5 C/km,
supporting MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg from eastern KS into
western/central MO via 09Z SPC mesoanalysis data. This change in
the thermodynamic environment has been reflected in recent
infrared satellite imagery showing bursts of colder cloud tops
over northern MO and far southern IA.

As the surface low over central KS moves eastward early this
morning, strengthening low level flow will translate into MO and
IL with 850 mb speeds locally exceeding 50 kt. Convergence at the
nose of 925-850 mb moisture transport will align WSW to ENE or
parallel to the mean steering flow. This will set up narrow axes
of heavy rainfall with training and potential for hourly rainfall
between 1 and 2 inches. The best overlap of low level convergence
with moisture/instability will be from northern MO into
north-central IL and northwestern IN through 16Z. Isolated
flash/urban flooding may result from 2-3 inches of rain in 2-3
hours. However, a lack of precipitation for this region of the
U.S. over the past couple of weeks (lower than average soil
moisture) and warmer than average temperatures (no/negligible
frost depth) should limit runoff. Therefore, any flash flood
concerns will likely be minor and remain limited to urban or
sensitive low lying areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_YG17WL1A4Ubdi67KFfO43e18ICjEG2HKhTFDp5vHXyUA4EeS62zo9t6AgrSOJoLIuD2= e1GJtSo6yTGe-RHU4VJf4oo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42178726 41658634 40918612 40448688 40038825=20
39629015 39199219 39289312 39699398 40409379=20
41329161 42118904=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 011521
FFGMPD
CAZ000-012120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0002
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1020 AM EST Thu Jan 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern California

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011520Z - 012120Z

Summary...Deep convection along and ahead of a surface cold front
located about 85 miles west of San Diego will continue to foster a
flash flood risk across the discussion area through 21Z/1p Pacific
Time.

Discussion...Areas of deep convection persist especially in/near terrain-favored upslope regions of the discussion area currently.=20
The convection was being supported by mid-level cooling (which has
fostered a pool of ~250 J/kg SBCAPE over Pacific and near-coastal
regions of the discussion area), orographic ascent (sponsored by
25-30 knot 850mb flow against Transverse and Peninsular coastal
ranges), and 1-1.3 inch PW values - supporting efficient rainfall
processes in/near convective activity. Recent MRMS/observational
data depicts an uptick of rain rates in both Los Angeles Metro
(into the 0.4 inch/hr range) and across San Diego County (where
0.5-0.8 inch/hr rates were estimated). These rain rates were
occuring over urban areas and near sensitive terrain from prior
flash flood impacts, burn scars, and terrain. Flash flooding
remains possible in these areas in the short term.

Models/observations suggest that the aforementioned Pacific cold
front will traverse the region from west to east and bring a
substantial decrease in flood/flash flood potential over time.=20
For the Los Angeles area and Transverse Ranges, this risk will
likely extend into the 18-20Z timeframe before decreasing some.=20
The front will take a bit longer to cross San Diego and adjacent
Peninsular Ranges (around 21Z or so). Flash flooding will remain
possible through the aforementioned timeframes.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6E_IiCTFWyRPvFYk288JNEQ4usNjEugJcYFb_BEOQMvQUtQtZ-envxiDu0hzGaAhh2h-= leCiEekM3pcilfnc8-zSexU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LOX...PSR...SGX...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35241857 35091802 34771717 34251662 33621619=20
32831597 32531613 32461695 32551746 33081815=20
33981872 34691879=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051856
FFGMPD
CAZ000-060400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0006
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
156 PM EST Mon Jan 05 2026

Areas affected...north-central CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051854Z - 060400Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flood/flash flood impacts will be possible
across portions of central to northern CA through the late
evening. Peak hourly rainfall of 0.50 to 0.75 inches and peak
additional total rainfall of 2 to 3 inches (locally higher
possible) can be expected through 06Z.

DISCUSSION...GOES West 6.9 micron imagery showed a mid-level
vorticity max/closed low centered near 36.6N 127.0W at 18Z,
embedded within a larger scale trough axis off of the West Coast.
At the surface, low pressure was located ~70 miles northwest of
Point Arena, with a cold front extending south and southwest. Over
the past few hours bands of moderate to heavy rain have been
observed moving across the northern CA Coastal Ranges with current
radar imagery showing an axis of locally heavy rain oriented SSW
to NNE into the North Bay region of San Francisco. In addition,
infrared imagery showed a band of colder cloud tops just ahead of
the cold front where weak MLCAPE values up to ~250 J/kg were
estimated by short term RAP forecasts and SPC mesoanalysis data.

850-700 mb winds were from the southwest at 30 to 40 kt ahead of
the offshore trough axis into north-central CA with PWAT values
ranging from 0.6 inches within the northern Sacramento Valley to
about 0.9 inches just west of San Francisco Bay. Short term
guidance is in good agreement with the track of the mid-level
vorticity max/closed low slowly advancing toward the CA coast
between Point Arena and San Francisco through about 03Z at which
point stalling and eventual southward translation are forecast.
The effect of these larger scale features will translate at the
surface to a SSW to NNE band of heavy rain advancing eastward
toward the central CA coast with embedded peak hourly rainfall
between 0.5 and 0.75 inches (locally higher possible) through the
afternoon and evening. Hourly rainfall up to about 0.5 inches in
an hour will be likely for the northern Sacramento Valley where
weak MLCAPE values up to 250 J/kg area forecast by the RAP from
about 00Z-04Z.

Recent heavy rainfall has left this region of CA more susceptible
to heavy rainfall compared to normal, and there will be the
typical enhancement of heavy rain impacts in and around the San
Francisco Bay region to contend with. Within areas of higher
terrain, localized landslides/rockslides will be possible and
flooding of creeks, streams, urban areas and other
low-lying/flood-prone locations will remain possible through about
04Z. Beyond 04Z, low level winds are likely to weaken and orient
more parallel to the coastline, diminishing the potential for
flooding impacts across the region.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5yfdRhNsr5-w98AcBLIkgKfg5dwl82xgBx00_2ai_nPnbtaLIKpLyJFPncQgplhC3Gld= GFEcRSBOU4e1ZIqU2XZx8Rg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EKA...MTR...STO...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41122240 41062196 40692174 40362164 39812141=20
39542172 38992204 38132212 37402214 36942223=20
36952281 37572330 38122362 38962364 39842330=20
40422311 40932275=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090913
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-091501-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0007
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...Central Mississippi...Eastern and Northeastern
Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090911Z - 091501Z

SUMMARY...Flattening steering flow to support segmented training
corridors across the Lower Mississippi River Valley.=20
Strengthening convergence and modestly unstable and seasonably
moist air should support rain rates to 1.75" and localized streaks
of 2-4" in 1-3hrs. Suggesting localized flash flooding is
possible this morning to start a longer day of repeat
thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows mature/decaying shortwave
rapidly elongating and sliding northeast through the central Great
Lakes with a well defined broadly anticyclonically curved
subtropical jet streak across Texas through KY/TN with a stronger
base of the northern stream synoptic trough well upstream emerging
into the southern High Plains. The strong flow and upper-level
dynamic support has resulted in well above normal moisture flux
across the Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes; CIRA LPW
denotes core of higher moisture/theta-E air over the West Gulf is
advancing into the entrance of the eastern US atmospheric river
stream. Surface to 850mb values are nearing 1" and is noted with
surface Tds in the upper 60s to even spots of 70 across the Lower
MS Valley.=20

The overall orientation of the upper-level flow is supporting a
pre-frontal confluence zone across E LA at this time, providing
sufficient deep layer convergence to tap the weakly unstable air.
MLCAPEs are analyzed from 500-1000 J/kg through the Sabine River
Valley into the Delta Region of SE AR and W MS. Flux convergence
of 30-35kts at about 30 degrees of convergence overlaps with the
core of the moisture axis with TPW near 1.7". As such, RADAR
denotes a few clusters of thunderstorms developing across NE LA as
well as further north across NE LA into W MS, the latter deeper
into the more ideal unidirectional flow and may support some
training elements as the overall convective development expands
and intensifies over the next few hours. The strong moisture flux
convergence mainly below 700mb will support rates of 1.75"; and
while the forward speeds will limit any specific core, the
upstream divergence aloft and strength of low level flow
convergence will support back-building and redevelopment upstream
through central LA throughout the morning.

Localized storm outflows may be the key to establishing the most
ideal training profiles, but even 1-2 hours of these rates could
support 2-3" totals and locally higher values to 4" would then
begin to exceed the high (3"/3hrs) FFG values in the area.=20
00z/06z HREF Probability of 3"/3hrs peak around 30% in SW to
central MS. Still even with dormant ground conditions, these
rates/totals will have the greatest potential for flash
flooding/rapid inundation conditions where intersecting urban
centers. In any case, these cells will saturate the upper soil
profiles prior to further convective activity expected throughout
the day and evening. As such, flash flooding is only considered
possible and limited to widely scattered in coverage through the
early morning period.=20=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9acKgA_eVUQUbWukkTDJ3cwSbuwKek4CYWoR60Ef7vNo7XSoV4CCLFqlziyioqp90ODj= KtIhNIYw04qxDKJ-RKVXHog$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34138908 34058839 33498829 32868864 32288915=20
31568980 30709050 30919161 30929254 31469279=20
32169248 33289103 33719020=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091516
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-092000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0008
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1015 AM EST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...southeastern LA, southern MS, western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 091514Z - 092000Z

SUMMARY...Peak rain rates of 2 to 3 in/hr are expected to produce
at least Isolated flash flooding from northern portions of
southeastern LA into southern MS and parts of western AL through
20Z. 6-hr rainfall of 3 to 5 inches will be possible, through
these higher end totals should remain rather isolated should they
materialize.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 15Z showed a axis of heavy rain
oriented ENE from the LA/MS border across the I-55 corridor into
south-central MS and portions of western AL. This axis was located
within an area of pre-frontal low level convergence, augmented by
rain-cooled outflow that extended from near Baton Rouge, LA to
Hattiesburg, MS to Thomasville, AL. 925 mb winds of 25-35 kt were
observed over southeastern LA into southern MS, converging along
this axis which was oriented parallel to the mean steering flow,
supporting training. Hourly rainfall near and just over 2 inches
has been observed near the LA/MS border within the past 2 hours
where MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and PWATs of 1.7 to 1.8 inches were representative of the environment, reported on the 12Z soundings
from LIX and JAN.

Short term guidance from the RAP shows similar low level flow
continuing over the next few hours with the establishing cold pool
likely serving as a focus for renewed convective development
through 18Z to 19Z from the LA/MS border into southern MS. ENE
steering flow is likely to support cells moving downstream into
western AL while some upstream development occurs back to the WSW.
The environment is capable of supporting hourly rainfall in the
2-3 inch range, although 1 to 2 inches per hour will be more
common. Localized potential for 3 to 5 inches over the next 6
hours will exist with at least localized flash flooding appearing
likely, especially within any urban areas and as high rain rates
overcome dry antecedent conditions.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_TyiPQgtr4G0Ii50gtuvjxeex8vVdO5evYOP54YZtWf02QDLtAIGPEdd-TkMEu8RjjIG= d01F8d6HGazeOuastO5EijM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32848772 32518711 31988718 31498776 30978897=20
30569019 30009159 30399210 31319161 32108995=20
32618877=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092005
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0009
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...south-central LA into south-central MS and
western/central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 092003Z - 100100Z

SUMMARY...Relatively narrow axes (or a single axis) of heavy rain
appear likely to maintain an increased flash flood potential into
the early evening from south-central LA into south-central MS and western/central AL. 2 to 4 inches and areas of flash flooding will
be likely within portions of this corridor with locally higher
rain totals possible.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 1945Z showed a persistent axis of
moderate to heavy rain from near the southeastern LA/MS border
into south-central MS and western AL which has been in roughly the
same location over the past 3-4 hours. Embedded hourly rainfall
has been observed in the 1-2 inch range at times and roughly 2 to
4 inches have fallen from near Baton Rouge into south-central MS
as far east as Waynesboro, MS since early this morning. A
combination of rain-cooled outflow and a slightly elevated axis of
convergence located within 925-850 mb layer have helped to focus
these areas of heavy rain over the past few hours where MLCAPE has
increased into the 500-1500 J/kg range from the southern MS/AL
border toward Lake Pontchartrain (via SPC mesoanalysis data).
Additional rainfall was occurring farther north in AL along the
elevated convergence axis where 2 to 3 inches was reported over
the past 6 hours, but a lack of instability has tempered rainfall
rates across northern locations. Radar imagery also showed
additional thunderstorms building over the I-10 corridor of
south-central LA, rooted near the surface within weaker/more
subtle axes of near surface convergence.

RAP forecast guidance suggests an inflection point along the
convergence axis (currently over the south-central MS/AL border)
will advance northeastward in the short term while the axis of
convergence to its west lifts slightly north. Meanwhile, the WSW
to ENE oriented outflow boundary in place over south-central MS is
likely to continue to serve as a focus for additional thunderstorm
development. Therefore, expectations are for continued
thunderstorms over the region through early evening, initiating
along and just north of the surface outflow and farther north on
elevated convergence with training via mean movement off toward
the ENE. Embedded short term training may also occur with the
thunderstorms moving northward through south-central LA.

Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, but localized hourly rainfall in
excess of 2 inches is expected through early evening from southern
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley into western/central AL.
The better instability is forecast to remain situated west of the
MS/AL border but pockets of locally higher instability into
portions of AL may also support flash flooding to the east as
well. Given dry antecedent conditions leading up to this event,
flash flooding potential will be greatest over urban areas and
where heavy rain has fallen over the past 12 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9m4qxItj-dnwomeDGXhQp86jHguqhmSXSAAR6bEQjaMBomi8lsV-t-Am1_0oAWUcpSxH= eCihXcSKifpS29MX2Hrx8sk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33568684 33488628 33168594 32648596 32198649=20
31858711 31258872 30868957 30379076 30359177=20
30639220 31179203 31969105 32449012 32698924=20
33208778=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100147
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-100545-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0010
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
846 PM EST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...Parts of Southern MS into western-central AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100145Z - 100545Z

SUMMARY...A relatively narrow corridor of cell training will
maintain the potential for isolated areas of flash flooding
through the remainder of the evening. Additional rainfall totals
of 2 to 3 inches are expected across many locales within this
corridor through midnight CST, though isolated amounts of 4-5
inches areas are expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-E longwave IR imagery showed a well
developed, rather expansive west-to-east Warm Conveyor Belt (WCB)
of higher/colder cloud tops from northern Mexico northeast through
eastern TX and into the Mid-South and TN Valley. Robust upper
trough over the southern Rockies-High Plains and attendant upper
level jet streak on the eastern flank is helping to enhance the
deep-layer forcing and low-level frontogenesis ahead of the
approaching cold front, which will coincide with the boost in the
low-level moisture transport from the Gulf as 850 mb winds
increase to 30-40 kts later this evening.

Meanwhile, a narrow axis of higher deep-layer CAPE (1000-1500+
J/Kg) will also nudge northeastward from the Gulf Coast into
southern MS and southern-central AL, coinciding with PWs climbing
between 1.8 and 2.0" in the expanding pre-frontal convective
environment. Multiple, quasi-linear convective segments will tend
to train within this narrowing corridor of more optimal
instability and available PW. The mesoscale (CAM) guidance has
struggled a bit handling the current setup, compared to the radar
mosaic over the past few hours. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs have
caught up a bit however. High res ensembles (HREF and RRFS)
probabilities of hourly rainfall rates exceeding 1-2" are a bit
lower than reality (especially the 2"/hr probabilities),
indicative that the event may only just now be getting better
handled by the guidance. Much of the CAM guidance show the
heaviest rainfall south of BHM through midnight CST, however with
notably lower FFG over northeast MS and northern AL, it would not
take as much rainfall to cause additional runoff issues,
especially considering what has already fallen.

Hurley

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6j7wsjsHr8ga0tgXnpJ4FOHJWysiSmMEDaIqyT_p8lovh63Ekd-FfvWNITKFWu9QqJ3u= x9ZuW_d7bZj_84atsYa08l0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34198699 32868611 31658789 30709029 31699073=20
33308893=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100444
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-101000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0011
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1142 PM EST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast to East Texas...Western and Northern
Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100445Z - 101000Z

SUMMARY...Strengthening scattered to widely scattered
thunderstorms capable of 1.5"/hr and localized 2-3" totals given
some short-duration training potential for flanking cell
development. Greater soil saturation/lower FFG, north and
proximity to Houston metro/urban runoff to south pose localized
possible incident or two for flash flooding through overnight
period.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and 10.3um IR loop depict a few
stronger thunderstorm clusters extending from near Victoria
northeastward across Southeast TX toward a weak surface low near
KOCH. East of the low, a west to east stationary front crosses
near I-20 and recently saturated upper soil profiles given broad
1-2" totals throughout the day. Surface to boundary layer
southerly flow continues to advect upper 60s/low 70s Tds with
modestly unstable air mass in the warm sector with MLCAPE values
remaining at or above 1000 J/kg with spots of 2000 J/kg near the
Upper TX coast. Upper level jet streak continues to expand and
strengthen across the Ozark Plateau though broad right entrance
ascent is providing strong divergence aloft and supporting the
slightly backed and 20-25kts of low-level jet flow to obliquely
intersect the slowly eastward advancing cold front.=20

While mid to upper levels remain dry, the anomalous moisture
remains though 700mb with over 1.5" and spots nearing 1.75" within
the warm sector. This results in solid moisture flux convergence
and solid instability to maintain/expand the convective coverage
though likely still in a scattered nature over the next few hours.
Flux convergence is supporting moderately efficient rainfall
production with 1.5-1.75"/hr rates. Forward progression will
continue to be a limiting factor toward 2-3" streaks of rainfall
totals across the area of concern, especially as the core of the
jet (and therefore the right entrance divergence) shift
northeastward and direct circulation allows for faster progression
of the cold front through the TX Coastal Plain.=20

Overall totals are not a tremendous concern across the Coastal
Plain, with a solid exception of the hydrophobic urban/suburban
corridor of Houston. The sheer rates would be the greatest
potential and even slight probability of localized 2"/hr rates may
be sufficient to result in localized flooding concerns. Further
north across the northern Piney Woods of E TX into Northern LA,
the recent rainfall will locally result in above normal runoff,
and compromised FFG values of less than 2"/hr and 3"/3hr remain
capable of being exceeded again. As such, a few incidents of
localized flash flooding will remain possible through the
overnight period as the front presses through from west to east.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5e45rP2JunIuVcPEhh0jU35Epu8JkIn1Nkw9iyBplNfFJrna5KVV_1R27PiPw8ZbzmRa= 2_o7E4DnM3kcR0t4xyG5GNM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32959190 32879118 32299104 31379165 30549283=20
29959426 29399553 29649617 30229584 30649558=20
31419478 32189422 32789339 32919271=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100536
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-101100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0012
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1236 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Areas affected...Southeast MS...Central AL...Northwestern GA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100535Z - 101100Z

SUMMARY...Rainfall intensity is reducing though there remains a
continued favorable training environment and persistent warm air
advection for additional upstream development to maintain training
through the overnight period. Already wetted/saturated soils
with additional 2-3" may result in localized possible flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...04z Surface analysis depicts main synoptic front
bisects Middle TN into eastern MS before it starts to bend back
westward across central MS to near Vicksburg and along I-20 under
the influence of the upstream DPVA from the shearing upper level
trough and strong 130kt+ jet over the Ozark Plateau. Still, the
influence of the initial shortwave and atmospheric river/stream
out of the western Gulf yesterday continues to slide northeastward
across central AL toward the Southern Appalachians later this
morning. VWP shows broad 25-40kt LLJ from SE LA across AL into
western GA; which aligns with the core of enhanced moisture per
CIRA LPW sfc-850 and 850-700mb layers with .75-.9" and .4-.5" in
each layer respectively. RAP analysis and GPS network confirm
1.75" core in central AL sliding northward.

The flow through this layer remains strong and nearly
unidirectional from 850 upward to support a narrow training
profile for ongoing/weakening convection and anything that would
redevelop upstream. The surface to boundary layer does still have
some additional southerly component and surface
analysis/instability axis denotes an effective rain-cooled
isentropic ascent plain/front extending from the main front near
Vicksburg to Jackson to south of Meridian to near Montgomery. As
such mildly unstable air with 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE south of the
boundary will isentropically ascend to provide some scattered
thunderstorm activity upstream. This should help to maintain some
training profile across central AL with occasional 1.5-1.75"/hr
rates and localized 2-3" streaks, eventually extending toward W GA
with slowly diminishing rates and therefore totals.

However, given the prolonged nature, short term FFG values may not
be exceeded except for areas already compromised across Southeast
MS and far SW AL and urban centers along the way. However, add
this 1-3" totals to the 1-2" totals already fallen across AL into
GA and longer term exceedance is possible, suggesting localized
flash flooding conditions remain possible through the overnight
period into early morning.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!435-j2SzxdSRBUw-cE0OMsONPir6gcMUx4lDPm-ZmspqOtZkTROIgK4FzQEfJoUP2Gal= mFisCP7jRcMnc0sYzE9_uBw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34408506 34308429 33678411 33238444 32488549=20
31648728 31158841 31198950 31919077 32649045=20
33158827 33538722 34128572=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100830
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0013
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana...Southern Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100830Z - 101330Z

SUMMARY...Pre-frontal confluence band activating within narrow
remaining instability axis in proximity to moisture axis enough to
support 1.75-2"/hr rates. Cell motions support some short-term
repeating though already saturated/flooded areas. As such,
localized flash flooding is likely to occur again through early
morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and Regional RADAR depict an area of
increasing convective development along a low level confluence
line extending from near Marsh Island across Baton Rouge, LA
toward McComb MS before intersecting with a broader west to east
rainfall reinforced outflow or effective isentropic boundary. RAP
analysis depicts a narrow instability axis with 1500-1750 J/kg of
MLCAPE and generally aligns with the western edge of slightly
higher low level moisture where Tds climb above 70 a few degrees.=20
VWP also note an increase in low level wind speeds toward 40+kts
and remain fairly unidirectional through 500mb well ahead of the
frontal zone. As such, there remains a favorable training
orientation for the convection. SPC MCD 18 alludes to favorable
shear environment for some rotating cells as well, further
increasingly moisture flux convergence allowing for rates to reach
1.75-2"/hr potentially. Upstream cold front is starting to press
eastward, but there remains a few hours of potential training of
these cells. This matches most closely to the 00z ARW solution as
well as recent RAP runs though other rapid refresh guidance
provides some increased confidence to this evolution.

Unfortunately, the orientation appears to intersect locations that
had received over 4" yesterday afternoon. This has resulted in
compromised FFG values below 2"/hr for solid portion of the MPD
area of concern and with 1-2 hours of training spots of additional
2-3" are probable and would likely result in localized flash
flooding to occur once again across far northern East Louisiana
into Southern MS. Combine this with any remaining convective
cells along the cold front passing through by 14-15z, consider the
potential for flash flooding to once again be likely across this
area into the early morning hours.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4aacJg2RqFJ5V8-2vwdZ2lKcSM8fYZxP72KCyyCnUC5vlx1yoCazj4zpzWsinq-zZNFh= viusEplqvv9jnVIymFAi_pU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33058867 32998809 32558766 31878777 31448828=20
31178870 30878924 30549032 30359117 30689162=20
31319135 31909091 32838963=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100834
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0013...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
334 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Corrected for Concerning line: Flash Flooding Likely

Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana...Southern Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100830Z - 101330Z

SUMMARY...Pre-frontal confluence band activating within narrow
remaining instability axis in proximity to moisture axis enough to
support 1.75-2"/hr rates. Cell motions support some short-term
repeating though already saturated/flooded areas. As such,
localized flash flooding is likely to occur again through early
morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and Regional RADAR depict an area of
increasing convective development along a low level confluence
line extending from near Marsh Island across Baton Rouge, LA
toward McComb MS before intersecting with a broader west to east
rainfall reinforced outflow or effective isentropic boundary. RAP
analysis depicts a narrow instability axis with 1500-1750 J/kg of
MLCAPE and generally aligns with the western edge of slightly
higher low level moisture where Tds climb above 70 a few degrees.=20
VWP also note an increase in low level wind speeds toward 40+kts
and remain fairly unidirectional through 500mb well ahead of the
frontal zone. As such, there remains a favorable training
orientation for the convection. SPC MCD 18 alludes to favorable
shear environment for some rotating cells as well, further
increasingly moisture flux convergence allowing for rates to reach
1.75-2"/hr potentially. Upstream cold front is starting to press
eastward, but there remains a few hours of potential training of
these cells. This matches most closely to the 00z ARW solution as
well as recent RAP runs though other rapid refresh guidance
provides some increased confidence to this evolution.

Unfortunately, the orientation appears to intersect locations that
had received over 4" yesterday afternoon. This has resulted in
compromised FFG values below 2"/hr for solid portion of the MPD
area of concern and with 1-2 hours of training spots of additional
2-3" are probable and would likely result in localized flash
flooding to occur once again across far northern East Louisiana
into Southern MS. Combine this with any remaining convective
cells along the cold front passing through by 14-15z, consider the
potential for flash flooding to once again be likely across this
area into the early morning hours.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8A94cu_2EwIsReGlPc-3vX9yAGxP4uM-DkHqQ9QnUZE7dddVxb0_aR_v2XJ7MMiUV3RH= ZqruWZkdv7CYjxwdXzJPM8o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33058867 32998809 32558766 31878777 31448828=20
31178870 30878924 30549032 30359117 30689162=20
31319135 31909091 32838963=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101355
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101954-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0014
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southern/central Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101354Z - 101954Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across southern
Mississippi this morning. This threat will shift eastward while
gradually becoming more isolated through 19Z/1p Central.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an extensive,
linear convective complex extending from near Gadsden, AL through
Birmingham, AL and southwestward to near Hammond, LA. Convection
has trended toward more forward propagation over the past several
hours, but remain capable of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates - especially
across southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana where
forward motions are slower (around 20-30 knots) and quality
pre-convective moisture exists. The storms are in an environment
characterized by moderate surface-based buoyancy (around 1000-1500
J/kg - highest from central Alabama through the New Orleans area)
and 1.4-1.6 inch PW values - both characteristic of typical
profiles supporting deep moist convection and heavy rainfall
rates. Additionally, some of the activity was falling on areas of
southern Mississippi that have received 5-8 inches of rainfall
over the past 24 hours (particularly near Hattiesburg, Waynesboro,
MS and surrounding areas). FFGs are near zero in those areas,
supporting an imminent and ongoing flash flood threat there.=20
Farther northeast and southeast of the Hattiesburg area, FFGs are
a bit higher (around 1 inch/hr in Alabama - closer to 2-3
inches/hr in Louisiana), suggestive of more scattered flash flood
potential in those area in the short term.

The forward-propagating nature of this complex will result in
storms gradually moving out of the most sensitive, water-logged
areas of the discussion area through the morning and early
afternoon. The downstream airmass is still supportive of
occasional areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates, promoting flash
flood potential especially in urban and sensitive areas of the
discussion area. Flash flooding remains most likely in
southeastern Mississippi this morning, with a lesser-concentrated
risk throughout the remainder of the discussion area.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7OGoiGqj85_Vesa1ojoKLDKhAaPxWV1B9qkkhqgPTdSo7FDat7FsdJY3lqM0RO53_it5= 34zevUAZFeSLoq2RL78HvGc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34318457 33968412 32578415 31058531 30358760=20
29228947 29239063 29609114 31409039 32788822=20
34228567=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101410
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101954-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0014
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
909 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, southern/central Alabama, and western/northern
Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101354Z - 101954Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across southern
Mississippi this morning. This threat will shift eastward while
gradually becoming more isolated through 19Z/1p Central.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an extensive,
linear convective complex extending from near Gadsden, AL through
Birmingham, AL and southwestward to near Hammond, LA. Convection
has trended toward more forward propagation over the past several
hours, but remain capable of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates - especially
across southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana where
forward motions are slower (around 20-30 knots) and quality
pre-convective moisture exists. The storms are in an environment
characterized by moderate surface-based buoyancy (around 1000-1500
J/kg - highest from central Alabama through the New Orleans area)
and 1.4-1.6 inch PW values - both characteristic of typical
profiles supporting deep moist convection and heavy rainfall
rates. Additionally, some of the activity was falling on areas of
southern Mississippi that have received 5-8 inches of rainfall
over the past 24 hours (particularly near Hattiesburg, Waynesboro,
MS and surrounding areas). FFGs are near zero in those areas,
supporting an imminent and ongoing flash flood threat there.=20
Farther northeast and southeast of the Hattiesburg area, FFGs are
a bit higher (around 1 inch/hr in Alabama - closer to 2-3
inches/hr in Louisiana), suggestive of more scattered flash flood
potential in those area in the short term.

The forward-propagating nature of this complex will result in
storms gradually moving out of the most sensitive, water-logged
areas of the discussion area through the morning and early
afternoon. The downstream airmass is still supportive of
occasional areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates, promoting flash
flood potential especially in urban and sensitive areas of the
discussion area. Flash flooding remains most likely in
southeastern Mississippi this morning, with a lesser-concentrated
risk throughout the remainder of the discussion area.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Hlcy_JkIVC_spif7StIjfVMqKja9sq8Gg9rt_MmTn0QKzEocsUt4og8AxJVfmfAPSGm= Rp1xHZW4-kpUSY8JUQ28y5o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34318457 33968412 32578415 31058531 30358760=20
29228947 29239063 29609114 31409039 32788822=20
34228567=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 240324
FFGMPD
TXZ000-240922-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0015
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1023 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Areas affected...portions of central Texas and the Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 240322Z - 240922Z

Summary...Flash flooding is possible on a localized basis through
09Z/3a Central. Areas of thunderstorms are developing and will
move slow enough to provide 1-2 inch/hr rain rates at times.

Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an uptick in
scattered convection across the Texas Hill Country just north of a
surface cold front extending from near Del Rio to near San
Antonio. The storms were embedded in a strongly sheared
environment, with elevated instability just north of the front
(500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) supporting the uptick in convection. Weak
mid-level shortwave troughs were approaching from the higher
terrain of northern Mexico, also helping to ignite convection. A
close inspection of both point forecast soundings and RAOBs depict
updrafts rooted at around 850mb, with wind fields supporting local
right-moving storm motions of 10-15 knots. These slow storm
motions were combining with 1-1.4 inch PW values to support
estimated rain rates of around 1.5 inch/hr with convection that
has become established near Kerrville. These rates are enough to
prompt localized flash flood concerns given sensitive/varied
terrain and low spots across the region.

The ongoing forecast scenario will continue for at least the next
6 hours. Deeper, slower-moving convection (potentially with right-moving/supercellular characteristics despite being elevated
above the shallow stable layer) will continue to develop
occasionally, but also remain tied to the slow southward progress
of the cold front. Spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates will gradually shift/develop southward and eastward toward the I-35 and I-10
corridors over time. Isolated instances of flash flooding are
possible where these locally heavier rain rates can materialize
over/near sensitive terrain.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-cXGI7RBYXOKdL9gC7Nr8Jofd7VtdRre4M3b0gjXeET4JN2gues8uAti2K-cBKlFviZ2= w3_uxdIeaSVqXw3hk73w5cU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30819890 30559786 29929754 29189767 28489889=20
28780009 29360103 29810147 30460160 30790051=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 241033
FFGMPD
TXZ000-241431-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0016
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas affected...southeast Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241031Z - 241431Z

Summary...Flash flood potential will increase over the next 2-4
hours near Houston Metro and surrounding areas.

Discussion...Persistent warm advection across southeast Texas has
maintained elevated buoyancy atop a frontal zone draped
east-to-west across the discussion area. This buoyancy, combined
with isentropic upglide and a weak mid-level disturbance
approaching the region has triggered increasing deep convection
about 60 miles west/southwest of Houston Metro. These cells were
slightly elevated, but were also in an environment with ~1.5 inch
PW values, supporting locally heavy rainfall. Recent MRMS data
suggests 1 inch/hr rates beneath the stronger activity.

On their current trajectory, these cells will migrate toward areas
near Houston Metro and points south over the next couple hours or
so. 1 inch/hr rain rates could contribute to urban
ponding/excessive runoff especially if localized training can be
established. Flash flooding is possible in this scenario.

The flash flood threat in this region will likely last for about
2-4 hoursor so. A strong cold front was surging southeastward
along a line from near Victoria to Cotulla. This front will
eventually undercut ongoing convection as it approaches the Gulf
Coast through 13-14Z (7-8am Central). Any flash flood threat
should decrease some behind this front as colder air filters in
and contributes to stabilization.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_1NuyYPZ4es-I3lma45_GvQgXOYkNnYwgeBrX0QG7FE3UUPqpMC_QW6qIfL4d563QYlE= QeUPL8lo4eilv0gXvbb0KjM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30509549 30309452 29749446 28879538 28459699=20
28869758 29829739 30299658=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140351
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-140949-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0017
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1049 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Areas affected...Northwest TX northeast to the MO/KS/AR/OK border
junction

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140349Z - 140949Z

Summary...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are
developing from western TX into western OK at this time. Hourly
rain amounts to 2", with local totals to 4", could lead to
continued isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...An upper level low is progressing east-northeast
across NM, leading to regional difluence aloft. Precipitable
water values have surged to 1-1.25", which considering the
coolness of the atmosphere, has led to saturation. SPC
mesoanalyses indicate 500-1500 J/kg of MU CAPE across the region,
with the broadest instability pool across central OK. This is
helping to explain the backbuilding convection near the southern
border of KS/MO. Effective bulk shear of 40-60 kts exists
regionally, which has manifested itself across portions of the
Rolling Plains, Caprock, and Permian Basin of northwest TX.=20
Fairly unidirectional flow from the southwest is leading to
training attempts near the mesocyclones across Northwest TX.

The guidance indicates a general broadening of the instability
field (when using the 500+ J/kg MU CAPE region) with time, with
the greatest persistence across the Trans-Pecos region of western
TX. This should continue to lead to a general broadening of the
convective pattern which could increase bouts of training and
possibly cell mergers between more organized convection clusters
and disorganized thunderstorms. However, the broad pattern should
attempt to progress eastward as 850 hPa flow veers. The best
mesoscale model signal for heavy rainfall over the next six hours
in the vicinity of the stationary front across OK. Hourly amounts
to 2" and local totals to 4" are possible over the next six hours.
Flash flood guidance is variable across the MPD area, with some
areas more sensitive than others. These sort of amounts would
compromise the relatively lower flash flood guidance values across
northwest TX and the irregular MO/KS/AR/OK border junction.=20
Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding is possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_a6eAtseqa0om1E8gkgzPFR1_L6Sgdn7CoE2FmTbkzeqVO6GgexZW10lmq9rsvIVN0g2= HKxQMYGgt-Bc18Z1u42P2cA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...EAX...FWD...ICT...LUB...LZK...MAF... OUN...SGF...SJT...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38589714 38019342 36539264 35739489 35349581=20
32060045 31030356 32290359 33740150 34740112=20
36610057 37709955=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 140913
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-141512-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0018
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
412 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern TX & southern OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 140912Z - 141512Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to invigorate and
solidify into a slowly progressive line this morning. Hourly rain
amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" remain possible, which could
lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flood concerns.

Discussion...Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level
trough from CO south-southwest into northwest Mexico with two
centers -- a weakening center lifting across southern CO and a
more potent center moving just south of the NM/AZ border junction
with Mexico. Difluence aloft remains downstream across the
Southern Plains/TX; new convection is forming southeast of Midland
at this time. Precipitable water values are 1-1.3" per GPS data.=20
Gulf inflow continues to be best channeled up the Lower Rio Grande
Basin then upward across west-central TX towards southwest OK.=20
After initially dropping off after the evening convection, MU CAPE
is back on the rise across west-central TX, in the range of
500-1500 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 50-75 kts regionally. The
flow remains fairly unidirectional with height out of the
southwest.

The expectation is for a broad convective uptick into the late
morning across portions of west-central and northern TX into
southern OK as the mid-level low across far northwest Mexico
approaches, which could back the mean winds somewhat more out of
the south-southwest initially, possibly holding up convection for
a short time. Once the line solidifies, convection should show
some progression. The main concern from a heavy rainfall
perspective is the possibility of embedded mesocyclones holding up
segments of the line for an hour or two, leading to locally heavy
rain that would locally exceed the three hour flash flood guidance
(~2.5"). Issues would also be possible in urban areas. Flash
flood issues could be isolated to widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_jNl3xZkw7WJLJXqFtOzbQ20pOidvGgFDz9eSsEuouRQhfO8muctXC1-uFwKLrvrwlK2= pUIXVs6oTQ4iMBdU9Gi0tIs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35269728 34219634 31949880 30340135 29700289=20
30420352 31310324 32770109 34519946=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 141736
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-142335-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0019
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1235 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX into the Arklatex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 141735Z - 142335Z

SUMMARY...Increasingly organized areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms with some localized cell-training concerns may
foster isolated to scattered areas of mainly urban flash flooding
going through the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a strong southern
stream shortwave trough ejecting east across the southern Plains
which is interacting with a moist and modestly unstable airmass
downstream across much of eastern TX.

Strong forcing aloft with DPVA and a gradually increasing
south-southwest low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts ahead of a cold
front is facilitating a fairly expansive area of heavy showers and thunderstorms across central and northern TX and into the Red Red
Valley.

Recent radar trends has been showing a gradual increase in
convective organization with the activity near the DFW
metropolitan area, but with a generally progressive movement off
to the east and northeast as the shortwave dynamics interact with
the modestly favorable thermodynamic environment.

MUCAPE values are generally only on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg
with PWs upwards of 1.5 inches. However, some uptick in these
parameters can be expected over the next few hours as the
low-level jet reaches 40 to 50+ kts and PWs increase locally to
near 1.75 inches. This should help favor rainfall rates well into
the 1 to 2 inch/hour range with the stronger and more organized
cells which are being aided by much as 30 to 50 kts of effective
bulk shear.

Upscale convective growth is expected with at least the early
stages of a QLCS evolution likely going through the mid-afternoon
hours. The northern end of this convective mass will tend to focus
across northeast TX and into the Arklatex region where there will
be some localized cell-training concerns. A more progressive
convective line is expected farther south. The 12Z HREF guidance
suggests potential for some localized 3 to 4+ inch totals by later
this afternoon around the Arklatex.

The antecedent conditions are notably dry, but given the
increasing rates and cell-training concerns, some isolated to
scattered areas of mainly urban flash flooding will be possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5OUdtSYdwrifFZh_oEhT4OdhjIrhD4SEk6mtJ91CiUWM6k2tdiTTWeHidzgbtHRVgux2= uP243a-rpWdt2NZVMiTqjwg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34549428 34299311 33509314 32719423 32119559=20
32029649 32239723 32699745 33319705 34129585=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161303
FFGMPD
CAZ000-162100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0020
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
802 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161300Z - 162100Z

SUMMARY...Strong dynamics/ascent will support strengthening
moisture flux across Southern California and the Transverse Ranges
this morning with pivoting cold front allowing for slightly
increased duration of moderate rainfall with hourly rates of
.5-.75"/hr with isolated potential to 1" locally. Totals of 1-2"
along the coast and 3-5" in the terrain may result in increased
runoff for possible flash flooding and or mudslides, especially
near recent burn scars.

DISCUSSION...GOES-W depicts a compact inner core of the deep upper
low/trof continuing to dig southward near 36N129.5W with a broad
diffluent region in the northeast quadrant where the exit of a
130kt 250mb jet speed max is providing solid diffluence/divergence
aloft for expansive upper-level cirrus shield with enhancing
perpendicular transverse banding. A subtle but important embedded
shortwave along the left exit of the jet shows a the developing
baroclinic leaf just northeast of the 35N125W benchmark. This
approaching wave coupled with the digging upper-level core is
supporting surface cyclogenesis along the cold front in the
vicinity of the SLO/Monterey county offshore waters, allowing for
backing and strengthening low level flow off the California Bight
through Santa Barbara county. VWP has seen an increase of
925-850mb winds over 35kts while veering from SSE to SSW to over
50kts at 700mb. This solid WAA profile has a bit of low level
lapse rates as well to support 500-650 J/kg of MUCAPE in proximity
to the cold front toward Point Conception.=20

The overall interplay of the upper-level low and shortwave will
allow for solid negative tilting of the upper-trof providing
strong 75-90 degrees of low level directional convergence along
the front while the confluence of 850 and 700mb moisture streams
will align for enhanced moisture flux convergence bringing the
slightly below average moisture values up toward something more
average or slightly above average around 1" in total PWAT, with
CIRA LPW animations denoting this trend is on track mostly in the
surface to 850mb layer.

So with the combination of increasing flux convergence and minor
instability, pre-frontal showered and possible weak/narrow shallow thunderstorms convective cores of .75" to possible 1"/hr rates may
occur over the next few hours as the front rounds the Cape and
gets that extra bump due to steepening orographic ascent as well,
though coastal showers will still be intense capable of a quick
.5"+ rainfall total too, making urban style flooding problematic.=20
The cold front will begin to press eastward, but in the short-term
as surface low deepens, the pivot/fulcrum of rotation may allow
for overrunning showers to persist across SBA into the TROWAL
across SLO and Monterey counties for the next few hours keeping
localized totals of 2-4" possible, with some continued higher
runoff and possible localized flooding risk.

Flash flooding risk will increase, as IVT values steadily increase
from the 400 range toward 600 kg/m/s, likely peaking as the cold
front and warm conveyor belt moisture stream flow orthogonally
intersects the Transverse Range of Ventura county with HREF
probably of 1"/hr near 30% between 18-20z, with 3-5" totals
expected through 00z. As such, flash flooding is considered
possible through the remainder of the morning and into the
afternoon as it reaches the Los Angles Metro proper after 18z.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95dfXy5F6loNRbNt-tcBUWF77z-5_cLiTGcwDMX-mJQ-THiN2tqReSdy2vY1Q0yF6ruy= SwLb9Vo1twaJhU1n4a2w99Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...MTR...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36482138 36142073 35402021 34891962 34551875=20
34521780 34001755 33261777 33361890 33732006=20
34142075 34802105 35642182 36142185=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 161930
FFGMPD
CAZ000-170130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0021
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Areas affected...Southern California...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161930Z - 170130Z

SUMMARY...Progressive cold front with strong pre-frontal southerly
moisture flux will continue to shift eastward into the eastern
Transverse and Peninsular Ranges through this evening. Less
orthogonal ascent along terrain will reduce rainfall totals but
intense sub-hourly totals up to 1" that may cause urban flooding
and issues in and downstream of recent burn scars.

DISCUSSION...RADAR and GOES-W visible imagery show a narrow band
of intense showers/weak convective cores exiting Ventura county
into S Los Angeles county extending southward through the eastern
Channel Islands and starting to approach the southward turn of the
coast across Orange and San Diego counties. Very strong moisture
flux of 40-50kts of 925-850mb flow and steadily increasing
moisture per CIRA LPW nearing .75" in that layer. Veering post
frontal flow continues to be stark, with directional convergence
remains between 75-90 degrees. Given the strength over 30kts (up
to 50kts), it will continue to result in strong moisture flux for
the convective elements supporting hourly rates of .75-1". This
will continue what has been have observed moving through
southward facing terrain of the Transverse Range including the
Santa Monica Range, where totals of 2-3+" have been observed
resulting in localized flash flooding.

The strength of flow even below 850mb will continue to intersect
the San Gabriel and San Bernardino Ranges lower to mid slopes with
similar rates near .75-1"/hr though highest peaks will start
converting over to moderate/heavy snowfall. However, with
reducing southerly fetch, the Peninsular Ranges will see a quick
pick up, but with less orthogonal convergence/orographic ascent
will also see diminishing rates and therefore totals between
22-00z tonight. The lack of moisture flux off the California
Bight will also reduce the effective ascent through the TROWAL
further back west across the central Transverse Ranges where
lighter rain will continue to slowly add to the totals through 00z
as well. With the loss of orographic ascent/convergence and
deeper moisture availability, rates will reduce but increased
westerly flow and steepening lapse rates aloft before the main
cold front will allow for a few rounds of scattered upslope
showers with .1-.25"/hr rates/totals adding to the initial
mainline. Still, the overall risk for flash flooding will be
limited to urban and recent burn scars east and South of the LA
Basin.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_T2sFFPP0svERanV2yHB5IoA9mN_NCu8DjDbOL9-ENK0iN6I0_prGm9oGnmsdshK2Oz6= ETz3Y0zf0H5_pg1kbUamKeY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOX...SGX...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34701850 34251725 33811664 32841626 32471628=20
32451709 32971743 33471782 33621834 33831850=20
33981871 34221933 34601910=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051612
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-051730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0033
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EST Thu Mar 05 2026

Areas affected...Southeast OK...Far Western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051300Z - 051730Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms across southeast OK are
expected to persist through mid-morning. Given high rainfall rates
of up to 2 inches/hour and the slow cell-motions, some areas of
mainly urban flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
rather compact, but slow-moving cold-topped MCS over southeast OK.
Some cloud-top cooling has been noted over the last couple of
hours which suggests some deepening/strengthening of the
convective updrafts and this has been corresponding to an uptick
in rainfall rates.

In fact, the latest MRMS data shows rainfall rates near 2
inches/hour with the stronger storms over portions of Pittsburg
and Latimer Counties, and there have been some clear signs of
back-building cell activity around the southwest flank of the
convective mass. The early-morning satellite imagery is showing
some increasingly agitated CU/TCU across southern OK to the
southwest of the convection, and this is correlated with a
convergent low-level jet of around 40 kts in close proximity to a
stationary front.

The thermodynamic is generally modest with PWs of around 1.3 to
1.4 inches and MUCAPE values of only 500 to 1000 J/kg. However, a
wave of low pressure is noted in surface observations along this
front near the area of most organized convection. Given the
focused area of moisture convergence around this low center and
the low-level jet aiming into the southwest flank of the MCS,
there appears to be an environment to at least sustain the
convection in the near-term.

Morning CAMs are not doing the greatest with this MCS, but the
latest RRFS guidance is generally the best with overall placement.
However, it does suggest some convective persistence through at
least the mid-morning hours. Given the convective trends, an
additional 2 to 4+ inches of rain may be possible locally across
areas of southeast OK, and especially with a favorable environment
for back-building and training convective cells. The RRFS and some
06Z HREF guidance suggest some parts of far western AR may
eventually see some of this activity as well.

Expect a concern for mainly urban flash flooding as a result over
the next few hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4R6iCeI4LmUCaA5NzmFE9j-z2RPshOwLEWmKlicx_OB1_aZJ1YiUdTOF3ArjrFdHW0hV= Ywwb_p2vB3ikXFsa4onSyOM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35279546 35269464 34999407 34489415 34329513=20
34419639 34779679 35139644=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052344
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-060542-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0034
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
642 PM EST Thu Mar 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of northwest TX & western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052342Z - 060542Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms should become more numerous
with time from Northwest TX across portions of western OK. Hourly
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which could
lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A deep layer trough lies across the West, with a
subtle preceding shortwave just ahead of the main feature across
portions of West TX, southeast NM, and the TX Panhandle. The
combination of these incoming features is attempting to break a
weak mid-level cap across the region, which has led to isolated
shower and thunderstorm development. Precipitable water values
are ~1.25", ML CAPE is 1500-2500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear is
35-45 kts.

With time, the cap breaks which should lead to increased shower
and thunderstorm development near and poleward of where an area of
850 hPa confluence intersects a warm front, with the zone of
low-level confluence slowly veering with time. The 12z ARW and
18z hi-res NAM are amongst the wettest guidance, showing a 3-4"
maximum somewhere near the border of northwest TX and southwest
OK. Given the ingredients above, hourly amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" are possible, lending some credence to their
solutions. Cell training, cell mergers between more and less
organized convective activity, and mesocyclone formation are
expected to be the drivers for heavy rainfall. These amounts
would exceed flash flood guidance on an isolated to widely
scattered basis, and be more problematic in urban areas within the
region. Used the 12z REFS & 18z HREF heavy rain signal to help
define the MPD outline.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67chU8hr6wglojF9XFQcZQZ5f9RgUFP6UaatT-G40IV2BLK7d0_fXfjDMO7OIFxTB6fM= CRPmLUTn0hyH2IY20_YBaEM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37019878 36389723 34339850 33749996 34510128=20
35760070=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060916
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-061500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0035
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 AM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...IA into northern IL and far southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060911Z - 061500Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered coverage of mainly minor
flash flooding will be possible across central/eastern portions of
IA into northern IL and the IL/WI border through 15Z (9 AM CST).
Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be likely where training of
heavy rain occurs with isolated rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches
possible.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0845Z showed elevated
thunderstorms over central and southern IA, with a general motion
toward the northeast. The storms were located at the nose of a
50-60 kt 850 mb jet seen on area VAD wind plots over central to
eastern KS, located north of a wavy warm front which extended from
southeastern NE into north-central MO and south-central IL. The
low level jet was rapidly transporting low level moisture into the
region, along with MUCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg toward the
northeast. Brief training of cells has supported observed rainfall
of 0.75 to 1.25 inches in 30 minutes near the central MO/IA border
between 07-08Z, showing the potential for locally high rainfall
totals if cell training is able to maintain over a location for 30
to 60 minutes. A strengthening 90-100 kt upper level jet streak
was also observed on GOES East DMVs centered over southern MN,
placing IA within the favorable right-entrance region.

While the magnitude of the low level jet is likely near peak and
RAP forecasts show some weakening through 12Z across eastern KS,
continued warm advection driven thunderstorms are likely to
advance downstream into portions of southern WI and northern IL
over the next 3-6 hours as low level moisture continues to advect
downstream and upper level support increases. Low level
convergence axes at the nose of the low level jet are not
favorably aligned to support longer duration training of cells
with the mean steering flow from SW to NE (roughly at right angles
to larger convergence axes), but increasing cell coverage could
allow for some brief training from SW to NE or WSW to ENE this
morning. The potential for 1 to 2 inches of rain in an hour and 2
to 3 inches in 2 to 3 hours would surpass area-wide flash flood
guidance values which are relatively low.

Therefore, a couple of instances of lower-end/minor flash flooding
will be possible over the next few hours with impacts mostly
likely where overlap of heavy rain occurs with urban locations or
other poorly draining areas.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8D9mYBbu0Iq8zqihAoDjR-bFNkrufn_JFv79UQULt56TOnftIXCqBoWPO1IsavPTsjBc= DUeLvMO8mcRND-sJY_TvDLY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...ILX...LOT...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43049341 42899151 42709019 42548867 41818832=20
41308877 40739090 40779355 41449517 42199543=20
42869482=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062212
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-070410-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0036
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
510 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...northeast TX into eastern OK, western AR, &
central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062210Z - 070410Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are broadening in coverage
across southeast OK. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local
totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to isolated to widely
scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are increasing in number
across southeast OK and southwest MO as mid-level capping erodes.=20
The OK activity in particular is near the intersection of a
surface trough and an effective warm front. ML CAPE is 1000-2000
J/kg, effective bulk shear is 40-55 kts, and precipitable water
values are ~1.4". Water vapor imagery implies a weak disturbance
is over the convection at the present time, with other shortwaves
aloft approaching from the west and southwest. Thunderstorms are
occurring on both sides of a cool wedge of air across central to
northeast OK left behind by morning stratus/rainfall. The
mesoscale guidance is struggling with the breadth of the coverage
and the location, with the 12z REFS a few hours too delayed and
the 18z HREF 1-2 hours delayed in this area.

The GFS-based Galvez-Davison Index implies a convective uptick in
coverage and intensity most centered in northeast TX, eastern OK,
and northwest AR through 00z before activity wanes at 03z or so,
which also matches the timing of the HREF/REFS convective
evolution. Considering the parameters above, mesocyclones are
expected. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" should be possible near
mesocyclones and where convection of different levels of
organization haphazardly merges, with local totals up to 4"
possible. Cell training is also possible as the deep layer flow
is fairly unidirectional out of the south-southwest. This flow
veers slightly with time which should allow for a slight eastward
shift and would theoretically limit even higher totals. The 18z
hi-res NAM and 12z ARW are on opposing sides of the guidance
spread, but at the moment, the 18z NAM appears to be doing
somewhat better. The guidance all appears too wet in northeast TX
at the present time, but given the incoming shortwaves from the
west and southwest, additional convection is possible in that area
at some point. Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible, particularly in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5hXn_qD-Chh8OyMtbaonMLdCxO41R6d7gNxlB2gNo1GmXoX83zp-vlXgwgPFLCDSp6aR= x6q6_iWDZP02x1MvXegThV0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...FWD...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...
SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39029383 38769202 36599238 33899435 32109697=20
31739900 33089868 34639827 35959795 36139782=20
37599547=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062230
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-070128-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0037
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...northeast IL, northwest IN, and southwest Lower
MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062228Z - 070128Z

Summary...A mesoscale wave is attempting to hold up convection
from in and near Chicagoland into southwest Lower Michigan.=20
Hourly amounts to 2" and local totals to 4" are possible, which
could lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...A mesoscale convective wave across central IL is
beginning to hold up convection in northeast IL rather close to
Chicago. Precipitable water values are near 1.3", ML CAPE is
1000-1500 J/kg, and effective bulk shear is 35 kts.

The concern is that heavy rainfall will occur over a portion of
Chicago's urban area, which includes far northeast IN. Some of
southwest MI may see cell training as well. This situation does
not appear to be handled well by recent mesoscale guidance. The
parameters suggest hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4"
are possible, which would be a problem in urban areas from a flash
flooding perspective over the next several hours.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5wtNSRhaJZ0b-AkHJXJPRJ-g52HW4bwZseH-lj-Q-xnH-Roh6js4fiYsVibky7S7LO4F= 2MsfA3vV46HJbvhEzA2vAMk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42598593 41578648 40758845 40648918 40878939=20
41018930 41548830 42178709=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062256
FFGMPD
ILZ000-070152-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0038
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of Central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062252Z - 070152Z

Summary...A weak wave across western IL is holding up convective
progression across central IL. Hourly rain amounts to 2" with
local totals to 4" are possible, which would be a problem in urban
areas.

Discussion...In the wake of a mesoscale convective wave moving
into north-central IL, the system's convective tail is being held
up by a weak wave seen in the thermal field across western IL.=20
Hourly rain amounts are up to 1.5" per radar estimates. ML CAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg lies to its south, effective bulk shear is ~35
kts, and precipitable water values are ~1.4".

It appears cell training in this region could last for 2-3 hours.=20
In this time, hourly amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are
possible, which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_cu3PDWDwuxUiKwxwzpex5n8GbOkxAy35vzo6ex4qu-gnai0fFMgebW8YOLYV_NLTWJN= BYzCADTNScwVUB8N0-NjP98$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40828877 40488805 39888912 39629031 40388936=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070055
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-070654-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0039
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
754 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...in and near Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070054Z - 070654Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are developing across portions
of Iowa which have recently received heavy rainfall. Widely
scattered occurrences of flash flooding are possible over
partially saturated soils and in urban areas.

Discussion...The leading edge of an upper low over the West is
pushing across portions of Nebraska and southeast SD at this time.
Elevated showers and thunderstorms have begun to blossom near a
surface low due to the difluent flow aloft ahead of this feature.=20 Precipitable water values are just over 1". MU CAPE of 500-1500
J/kg lies across IA along with effective bulk shear of 30-65 kts.

Moisture should increase further across IA with time, with
precipitable water values eclipsing 1.25" in some areas.=20
Sufficient instability should be available to keep convection
going well into the overnight period. Hourly rain amounts up to
2" are possible where mesocyclones form, cell training occurs, and
where lesser and greater organized convection merges. Local
totals should stay at or below 3". The flow noticeably veers as a
front progresses eastward, which should limit overall totals.=20
However, given recent saturation, hourly rain amounts could be
sufficient to exceed the low flash flood guidance values seen
across a good portion of IA. Widely scattered flash flood
occurrences are possible through 07z, both over partially
saturated soils and within urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8t-DVljKG8AePntYFJXiFaWqOUul6m6NleTEz-6TA7k68JCDan_Ut9hsSHGs-VWS4Bj3= Z1QII3DY3X-BNzoIM31_5yM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...MKX...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43709310 43369042 41699019 40319259 40109486=20
40619596 42499611=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070430
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-071000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0040
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1129 PM EST Fri Mar 06 2026

Areas affected...northeastern OK, southeastern KS, northwestern AR
into southwestern/central MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070428Z - 071000Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms from northeastern OK into
central MO and adjacent portions of southeastern KS and
northwestern AR is likely to result in at least isolated to widely
scattered areas of flash flooding over the next 3 to 6 hours.
Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is expected, but isolated 2+ inch
per hour rainfall will be possible.

Discussion...At 04Z, a line of thunderstorms was observed on area
radar imagery from northeastern OK into southwestern and central
MO, with a history of training and peak MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall just over 2 inches between Tulsa and Pryor, OK, just
south of I-44. This line has been established for a few hours now
and has resulted in a region of rain-cooled air being overrun by a
40-60 kt low level jet. The SW to NE orientation of the line,
matching deeper layer steering flow has resulted in areas of
training, but the line of storms has shown some eastward
translation over the past hour or so. Farther south, additional
convective development has increased over southeastern OK, within
weakly confluent low level flow, and is advancing northward into
the southern extent of the aforementioned line in northeastern OK.

Areas of training are ongoing from northeastern OK into
southwestern MO, and this is likely to continue in the short term.
While overall eastward movement is expected, the most likely area
for training storms will be along the southwestern flank where the
low level jet intersects the line. Meanwhile, 1000 to 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE extended from the MOKSAROK intersection into central OK,
ahead of a cold front/dryline extending SSW from eastern KS into
west-central OK. A line of thunderstorms is expected to become
better established as the cold front continues to sweep
southeastward through 09Z, eventually bringing another round of
locally heavy rain to portions of northeastern OK. While this
second round of storms is expected to remain progressive, up to an
additional inch or so of rain will add onto locally heavy totals
from the initial round of thunderstorms ongoing. At least isolated
instances of flash flooding will be possible with locally
scattered coverage possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_C8PkJrA_Owm1xEsyOiWlev0uastmEwoOXMM7o6CzP4SIXhGqA7dVgZGWKsVHZsllej= U5my1FNm5afr5JQ-qT0xemg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38429281 38409202 38259130 37739134 37089182=20
36399277 35569413 35209490 35179550 35409584=20
35779609 36279599 36849542 37479443 37879367=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070551
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-070920-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0041
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 AM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...IA/IL/WI junction into southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070547Z - 070920Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain with 1-2 inches per hour may
produce localized flash flooding from the IA/IL/WI tri-state
region into southern WI through 09Z.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery over southern WI showed the
presence of an MCV or at least a northern bookend vortex about 30
miles NW of Madison, WI. The motion of this feature was toward the
ENE at a rapid pace of 40-50 kt. A strong low level jet of 40 to
70 kt (70 kt @ KDVN at 0504Z) was helping to rapidly transport
rich low level moisture to the north where it intersected a
southwestward extending line of storms from near the MCV center.

Forecast motion of the MCV takes it into central Lake Michigan
within the next 3-4 hours but there could be areas of training
along the axis of thunderstorms flanking the southwestern quadrant
of the circulation, with 1 to 2 inches per hour despite limited
MUCAPE of ~500 J/kg. While recent hires models do not have a good
handle on this feature, short term observational trends and
extrapolation indicate the best potential for training from the
IA/IL/WI tri-state region into southern WI with potential for 1 to
2 inches of rain in about an hour through about 09Z. Given 3-hr
flash flood guidance values below 2 inches across the region,
minor flash flooding will be possible, especially if there is
overlap with any urban locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_CbYSD-aj5mdLKSEPKlqZHichx8ffHHTjA6qAX6Jpx9_NZ16baOGfYA71z2Dj4NN2LoQ= znJ-AGHq9Ali2DPmnbzgfoY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43858844 43808755 42798771 42398875 42168975=20
42249059 42509082 42869048 43508957=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070956
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-071530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0042
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
455 AM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...northeastern TX/southeastern OK into AR and
southeastern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070955Z - 071530Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be possible across portions of
northeastern TX, southeastern OK into AR and southeastern MO
through 15Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be common
within cell training, but isolated 2+ inch per hour rainfall
cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...The coverage of showers and thunderstorms has been
gradually increasing from northeastern TX into western/central AR
over the past hour, ending 0940Z. The continued transport of low
level moisture into the region and perhaps some weak low level
confluence has contributed to the recent increase as low level CIN
decreases. Meanwhile, a line of thunderstorms was located to the
west, along a NE to SW oriented cold front, analyzed from a GMJ to
ADH to DYS line at 09Z. The environment from southeastern OK into
central AR consisted of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.4 to 1.6 inch
PWATs and sufficient effective bulk shear values for organized
storms, per SPC mesoanalysis data.

At least a modest increase in the coverage of cells is expected to
continue from far northeastern TX into western/central AR over the
next few hours with some degree of continued moisture advection
beneath diffluent flow aloft. The environment will continue to
support a line of thunderstorms along and ahead of the cold front
as it continues to advance southeastward, reaching southeastern OK
by 12Z and central AR by 15Z. As thunderstorm coverage fills in
from southeastern OK into central AR, cell mergers and training
potential will increase. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be
common where cell training occurs and isolated 2+ in/hr rainfall
values will also be possible. Peak storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches should be expected through 15Z which could produce isolated
to widely scattered instances of flash flooding. Below average
precipitation experienced over much of the region over the past
few weeks may act to mitigate flash flooding to urban overlap or
otherwise poorly drainage locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!572Q3M5-9eW4h4Gdt6dqk8Vs-JAifHlJSFikncaokp8cFUECJNgx_bLRNBSaimpMRnR2= _ZLxbaqeT_K0mBGqvi_BF_A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37099014 36168967 35189033 33709311 33439515=20
33819637 34829581 36089355 37029134=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071944
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-080100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0044
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
243 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...Northern LA...Central MS...Adj. Portions of SE AR
& E TX...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071945Z - 080100Z

SUMMARY...Progressive convective line likely to be limited in
duration but will intersect/merge with precursory slower moving
cells along the western Gulf return moisture axis. Widely
scattered 2-3.5" in 2-3 hours pose low-end possible incident or
two of localized flash flooding through evening.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and GOES-E imagery suite depict
a forward propagating convective line with numerous cells
developing along the forward flanks sliding east-northeastward
through the deeper layer steering flow allowing for some stronger
thunderstorms to linger for near an hour before pressing southeastward/redeveloping. Solid mid to upper 60s Tds and near
.8-.9" of PW through the lowest layer and totaling near 1.7"
across the Lower MS Valley; and solid lapse rates given 2000+ J/kg
of MLCAPE support fairly efficient rainfall production given
strength of flux (on 30kts of southerly inflow). This helps to
support 1.5-1.75"/hr rates and similar totals, but again, also
supports solid forward propagation vectors to limit duration.=20

Overall FFG values (2-2.5"/hr 3"/3hrs), especially given dry
recent conditions are not likely to be eclipsed by this alone;
though intensity forecast by the HRRR of 1-1.25"/15 minutes would
not likely infiltrate the harder upper soil column, greater
rainfall totals still are needed to result in even localized flash
flooding conditions.

CIRA LPW along with VWP notes, strong low level moisture return
off the western Gulf into along a sharp western edge of the 850
ridge axis over the US Southeast. This has resulted in a fairly
consistent pre-frontal convergence axis along this western Gulf
moisture stream. RAP moisture convergence shows a weaker but
sufficient moisture convergence axis in the vicinity of the
Mississippi River. Remote sensing shows this convergence has been
successful in developing scattered thunderstorms across E LA/W MS
with a slower northeast cell motion likely to intersect with the
approaching boundary. These will eventually merge, likely
broadening the updraft, moisture flux and therefore rates in the
short-term result in enhanced spots or streaks of 2-3.5" total
rainfall in 1-2 hours as they pass. This still remains on the
lower end of the FFG, so resultant flash flooding will be remain
widely scattered and likely lower-end remaining possible across
the area of concern through evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!49yzUqznTyi1UYmqoEk1AtTQlzvgALOEibaJmiq4eAEASUmVdZ-PmMN60cXl1m_Dr3Jv= 7T659iZnAQoypftrDRTPYng$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33688954 33598878 33238852 32768843 32108876=20
31408948 31059057 30979114 30999241 31259380=20
31789434 32479385 32789329 33199171 33399093=20
33579029=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071420
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-072000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0043
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
919 AM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...Northeast TX...Northern LA...Southern & Eastern
AR...Western TN...Northwest MS...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071420Z - 072000Z

SUMMARY...Scattered to widely scattered streaks of 2-3" totals in
1-2 hours along favorable confluence and training convective lines
suggest localized flash flooding is possible through late
morning/early afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts a highly dynamic environment
across the central U.S. with and exiting stronger northern stream
wave across the Great Lakes providing a broad entrance region
through the Mid-MS River Valley while a more subtle wave over the
Big Country of TX has provided a subtle split jet feature
providing solid downstream divergence aloft across the area of
concern stretching from NE TX through the Delta Region. A stream
of mid-level moisture is exiting from this shortwave along a
surface to boundary layer WAA regime across the Red River Valley.=20
GOES-E Visible imagery shows some breaks along/ahead of the
shortwave and weak surface reflection with best backed low level
flow providing strong moisture flux convergence and convective
development near KTKI/KGVT moving south-southeastward slowly.

Solid 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE exist through eastern TX to
maintain/feed these cells and with 35-40kts of southerly flow
intersecting the outflow boundary, isentropic ascent may allow for
downstream cells developing eastward. Deep layer flow should
allow for some short-duration repeat/training. A slight reduction
in overall moisture may limit overall rates, but over 1.5"/hr
should support some localized spots/streaks of 2-3" in 1-2 hours
before propagation southward limits overall totals. Slightly
higher FFG across E TX/N LA may further limit overall coverage but
localized flash flooding remaining possible.

Further northeast, the window appears to be closing for longer
duration, multiple rounds of thunderstorms as cold front is
starting to make a push eastward through the MS Valley; one,
cutting off the overall moisture totals along the 50+ LLJ streak
but two, reducing duration of heavy rainfall. Still, regional
RADAR mosaic and GOES-E Visible still shows a few southwest to
northeast moving showers/thunderstorms pre-frontally across E AR
with some TCU across north-central LA where the western edge of
the western Gulf moisture stream is occurring.

RAP/HRRR analysis shows deep layer convergence remains on this
axis before becoming confluent with the surging convective line.=20
The combination rapidly increases convective cooling as noted in
central AR over the last hour or so, shows the merger/combination
supports an hour or two of enhanced 1.5-2"/hr rates and localized
streaks of 2-3" in less than 2 hours. These intersections are
fleeting in duration but newer ones will be expected downstream
into W TX/NW MS and N LA as the overall system slides eastward and
convective line has positive southeasterly propagation vectors.

Any intersection with urban centers will likely present the
greatest flash flooding risk, but overall scattered to widely
scattered flooding remains possible through the late morning/early
afternoon across the area of concern.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!545MGXyZ_Ssl0BwFngKQPyaPOyUKXGCDNCyBov6WUEtoGs63xVol7-GKwX4uoJ6LGlZp= 3j5rXkygC2DvKdJg_MpFBI4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36219006 36128862 35228840 34138878 33228950=20
32689032 32199196 31999355 31919515 31929641=20
32209683 32869673 33259606 33399536 34529244=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072049
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-080247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0045
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of Southeast TX & Southwest LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072047Z - 080247Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become more
numerous across southeast TX and southwest LA over the next
several hours. Hourly amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are
possible, which would be most problematic in urban areas.

Discussion...A frontal wave is becoming more pronounced in the pressure/wind/thermal pattern across southeast TX, which has been
shifting southward as of late. It is tapping a corridor of higher
dewpoints between the Middle TX Coast and Southeast LA, where
there are in the lower 70s. Precipitable water values of 1.5-1.7"
lie in and just south of this region. ML CAPE of 500-2500 exists
in this area. Effective bulk shear is 25-40 kts, and increasing.

The combination of higher dewpoints in the region and increasing
effective bulk shear should result in convection with increasing
coverage and increasing organization, which will ramp up hourly
rain amounts. The frontal segment east of the frontal wave is
likely to propagate slower than other segments of the boundary,
which is expected to be the more likely focus for the heaviest
rains. The main threats from a heavy rain standpoint are cell
mergers between convection of various levels of organization,
mesocyclone formation, and short periods of cell training as the
flow is nearly unidirectional with height from the southwest.=20
Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals to 4" appear
possible in this environment. The RRFS, which can bias high,
shows a 10-20% chance of 5" amounts in the 21z-03z window. Due to
ongoing drought, widely scattered instances of flash flooding are
possible, more likely in urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8y-uNwIF0JZLmrqRcYDFGhiCq7zaQew6VfU_eEyPWTLoxZfoOHqdnVXpWd8_XUzItEVx= oKzK7k_hNNWECZysLs6MTHU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32059397 31349310 30019400 29609587 29889696=20
31169596=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072120
FFGMPD
TXZ000-080048-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0046
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of South-Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072118Z - 080048Z

Summary...An incoming mesocyclone and elevated thunderstorms out
ahead of it with some backbuilding character could yield hourly
amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4" across South-Central TX
over the next few hours. Flash flooding is more probable in urban
areas.

Discussion...A frontal boundary is edging southward across the
region, with more southward sag east of San Antonio than from the
city westward. Showers and thunderstorms with occasional
backbuilding character are near and behind this front. To the
west, northwest of Sabinal, a mesocyclone is progressing eastward
elevated over the front. Precipitable water values of 1.4-1.7"
lie here. ML CAPE is ~ 2000 J/kg, and effecitve bulk shear of
30-50 kts is helping to sustain the mesocyclone.

Radar reflectivity trends indicate the possibility of backbuilding
and cell mergers with the incoming mesocyclone as the main causes
for heavy rainfall over the next few hours. Hourly amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" appear possible here given the
available ingredients, which would be most problematic in urban
areas due to ongoing drought conditions.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95fFyTL52dXOxSaiUekZeNloeGDcLbzhxoPwcUc5rXUAcYdhD3gVJ53nK76zuXCBB5W6= QtPNf0JkpsockHL8hCfeISY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30089917 29859665 28959664 28989790 29169900=20
29469982 29849988=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072350
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-080600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0047
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
649 PM EST Sat Mar 07 2026

Areas affected...northwest & north-central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080000Z - 080600Z

Summary...Heavy rainfall concerns continue in the vicinity of a
front sinking through the region. Hourly amounts to 2.5" with
local totals to 4" could lead to flash flooding, primarily in
urban areas.

Discussion...A wavy front continues to settle southward towards
the north-central and northwest Gulf Coast. Precipitable water
values in the region are 1.3-1.7" per GPS data. Effective bulk
shear is generally 25-50 kts, with the associated field sinking
southward with the boundary. ML CAPE is 1000-3000 J/kg. The deep
layer flow is generally out of the southwest. The above
parameters support organized convection, and at times
thunderstorms have organized into a linear or clustered
appearance. Cell mergers have been common where 850 hPa inflow
has shown some confluence in the Lower Mississippi Valley, while
attempts at cell training have occurred north of Houston as of
late. Mesocyclones have been present at times within the
convective pattern. Backbuilding has also been seen at times.

The mesoscale guidance suggests two main areas where heavy
rainfall is preferred through 06z -- from far southeast TX through
southern LA into southern MS, with a secondary maximum across the
Brush Country of interior South TX. Based on the ingredients
present, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4" remain
possible in these areas wherever cells merge, train, backbuilding
occurs, or mesocyclones track. Much of the region is in long term
drought so the three hour flash flood guidance values are rather
high, in the 3-4" range. Urban areas appear most threatened by
upcoming heavy rains. Flash flooding is considered possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6_31B0A2GaDp9yCuMrNtL1m7q3KSwVjiLETYDH5rg0VPMfyao5QAgd6DbBitCdCKZlUb= hTOn8LQy_SPD5O7JrtCkJ7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...
MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33128827 32318749 30788773 29878893 29439145=20
29329399 28539567 26859715 26289912 27299997=20
28349995 29679852 31229470 32299144 33048981=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080602
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-081000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0048
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
101 AM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...Gulf Coast from Galveston Bay to western FL and
southwest AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080559Z - 081000Z

Summary...The threat for flash flooding will linger across
portions of the central Gulf Coast from near Galveston Bay to the
western FL Panhandle and southwestern AL for at least another 3-4
hours. Hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches will be most common within
axes of training, but localized 2+ in/hr rates are also expected.

Discussion...0530Z radar and surface observations showed a wavy,
elongated outflow boundary that extended from Galveston Bay into
southwestern AL. MRMS showed the highest hourly rainfall values
from south-central LA into southwestern AL with a range between 1
and 3 inches. 05Z SPC mesoanalysis showed MLCAPE along and south
of the outflow boundary of 500-1500 J/kg and PW values of 1.5 to
1.9 inches where cold tops continued to periodically cool on
infrared satellite imagery. 850 mb winds varied across the Gulf
Coast region but were generally between 15-25 kt from the S to SW,
supporting overrunning. Aloft a low to mid-level shortwave trough
axis was seen from central AL into south-central LA, tracking
eastward beneath strongly diffluent and divergent flow aloft,
within the right-entrance region of a 120+ kt upper level jet over
the MS Valley to the north.

The elongated outflow boundary is likely to continue slowly
advancing south and southeast over the next few hours, eventually
pushing south of a majority of the LA/MS coast while warm/moist
air continues to overrun it from the south. Areas of training are
likely to continue in the short term, but should become less
widespread through time. This will be as the low-mid level
shortwave and the upper level jet max advance toward the E/ENE,
weakening and shifting large scale ascent away from the LA/MS
coast. Diffluence will remain pronounced over the Gulf Coast
however, so there is some potential for more isolated thunderstorm
development back to the west, near the upper TX coast where the
outflow boundary may continue to linger just inland of the Gulf
Coast.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4nu5WEY2EOHy9lm9_7pVs8y7KZABMIuguyQaAk-lfeCccbqg5K9lhz5T_Xf26cuwoZUi= eeDl8XTGzGH9ED8YkRwGY9w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HGX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32618773 32518715 31938687 30888711 30108764=20
29828838 29708944 29539053 29469202 29429360=20
29109447 29279516 30029517 30359423 30739214=20
31049025 31378932 31988841=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081002
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-081400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0049
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 AM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...Upper TX Coast into Southwestern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081000Z - 081400Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flood potential will exist along the
upper TX coast into southwestern LA through 14Z. Training of heavy
rain could support 1 to 3 inches per hour

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery at 0945Z over TX/LA continued to
show scattered thunderstorms from near Galveston Bay into portions
of southwestern LA. 09Z surface observations showed these storms
were located north of an outflow boundary that extended from
Galveston Bay into the northern Gulf, south of the TX/LA border,
and then eastward, hugging the LA coast into southeastern LA.
Stronger, quasi-organized cells, were located along the northern
extent of MLCAPE, estimated to be 500-1000 J/kg via 09Z SPC
mesoanalysis data. The instability was present from the middle to
upper TX coast to just south of I-10 in southwestern LA.

850 mb winds were from the SSW to SW via area VAD wind plots at
10-20 kt and are forecast by the RAP to maintain a similar
intensity over the next few hours. Low level flow overrunning the
outflow boundary with cell motions oriented roughly parallel to
the boundary were allowing for a locally increased training
potential. Flow aloft remain rather diffluent which will aid lift
across the region. The environment is capable of supporting hourly
rainfall of 1 to 3 inches per hour which could result in a
isolated flash flooding, however, low coverage of these higher
rainfall rates should limit the flash flood threat.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4IA2jrZhvNStomp_AhBZ8AQvQrtrc0aoxCuonFMDq7iY9EuCAfyQcm__EMm6XPiSUR1H= pDe3-TDmu6LMs3JBUF9qU1M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 30729289 30489231 30129198 29509200 29329247=20
29409357 29189442 29059518 29539561 30279496=20
30649372=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081237
FFGMPD
TXZ000-081700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0050
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
736 AM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...South-central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081235Z - 081700Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving cells capable of 1.75"/hr rates near the
Southern Balcones Escarpment/San Antonio Metro may pose localized
flash flooding concerns through mid-morning.

DISCUSSION...EWX RADAR and GOES-E 10.3um EIR continue to show
increasing coverage and cooling top/intensifying thunderstorms
across south-central Texas. Return weak southerly moisture flux
over the shallow cold front across Deep South Texas combined with
favorable divergence in the exit/diffluence of upper-level jet max
has enhanced scattered early morning shower activity into
deeper/broader updrafts capable of intense rainfall. VWP at EWX
combined with RAP analysis suggests a recent uptick in 850-700mb
flow to 15kts, but generally into the northern limit to the weak
isentropic ascent providing this additional convergence to
generate/expand convective activity. CIRA LPW shows sfc-850 and
850-700mb tight moisture gradient indicative of the shallow front
with values near .8-.9 and .5" respectively. The loading of this
1.5 to 1.75" total PWat into the cells has increased rainfall
efficiency to support 1.5-1.75"/hr rates, especially the broader
cell in Bexar county, which also shows solid suggestion of upwind redevelopment.=20

Deep layer steering driven mainly below 700mb has more of a slow
northward shift within broadly westerly flow, which is also nearly
parallel to the moisture/flux gradient. This may allow for short
periods of repeating to allow for hour plus duration or random training/repeating from upstream cells too. Spots of 2-3" are
possible in 1-2 hours though the mid-morning (through 15-17z)
until favorable jet divergence slides further eastward/weakens as
well.=20

Proximity to San Antonio Metro/broad urban center and Balcones
Escarpment will likely be the greatest driver of flash flooding
potential. Naturally low FFG along/north of the city with hourly
values between 1.5-2" are well within the potential of low-end
exceedance and suggestive of localized possible incident or two of
flash flooding, especially if combined with hydrophobic urban
setting, further compounding run-off potential. Though south of
the escarpment across the sandier Coastal Plain, FFG values
increase rapidly and therefore flooding risk would be considerably
lower, but still non-zero.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9tzj-zTZ90x2te8mwPXgbDHtrsqYx0S_4Cjxoj7kTw-4gQaI7vWu40Z0j9hJOpsjHCDG= UFRr_SquB34e9DYxpbqy-ek$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29999741 29759663 29389614 28909595 28569640=20
28349786 28389910 28619953 28919971 29259965=20
29649922 29919843=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081702
FFGMPD
TXZ000-082130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0051
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 PM EST Sun Mar 08 2026

Areas affected...South-Central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081700Z - 082130Z

SUMMARY...Risk of low-end, widely scattered incidents of possible
flash flooding continue for a few more hours. Localized rates up
to 2"/hr

DISCUSSION...Surface to 850mb analysis shows the shallow cold air
remains in place across the Coastal Plain of South Texas with
surface north/north-easterlies across nearly all of the state.=20
However, onshore flow has veered a bit toward southeast continues
to isentropically ascend across the front which is banked up along
the coast itself. Northeasterly flow through 925mb at EWX
combined with recent CIRA LPW in the Surface to boundary layer
level align to denote the moisture gradient aligns with
directional convergence. MUCAPEs have modified slightly since
this morning, but remain with pockets of values nearing 1500 J/kg
to support the stronger vertical ascent for these scattered
thunderstorms. Divergence aloft continues to be fairly solid in
the weak split in the upper-level sub-tropical jet streak; but the
upstream ridging is increasing and advecting eastward in WV
showing the favorable environment will continue to shift and
eventually diminishing through the evening as it reaching the
central TX coast toward Victoria, TX

Longer trend animation shows the 925 to 850mb just east of Rio
Grande River near/centered around Cotulla; though WAA extends
through 700mb before veering sufficiently for nearly west to east
steering flow. This effective bulk shear nearing 50+kts along
with RADAR animation shows updrafts have modest rotation to
further isallobarically increase moisture flux convergence to
broaden the updrafts increasing rainfall efficiency. Bunker's
right mover propagation vectors allow for the more eastward
deflection and slowing of forward motions to allow for increasing
overall rainfall duration. Given total flux of the 1.75" at
10-15kts through the low levels as increased rainfall efficiency
in these cells toward 2"/hr with occasional localized upticks to
2.5". As such localized streaks of 2-4" are starting to form and
near the longer/higher FFG values (3-4"/3hrs). As such,
localized flash flooding remains possible though likely remain
widely scattered to scattered in overall coverage with overlap
into urban centers resulting in the greatest flash flood
potential.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!87kuqhY-PHOB8lpVdiEFATdF6AtIQzNEIP7IVPmpoLZjcG8lbRy0R0e63zzRLJHC7FVb= a5iY9d4hrVl9oZFkS6e-Snc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 29749720 29629635 29379606 28989601 28599622=20
28279687 28189739 28099840 28169892 28469928=20
29019937 29509900 29739809=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091713
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-092230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0052
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
112 PM EDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...Central & Eastern AR...Southwest TN...Northern
MS...Northwest AL...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091715Z - 092230Z

SUMMARY...Broadening upstream redevelopment of
showers/thunderstorms with potential for increased
training/repeating through afternoon. Rates increasing from 1 to
1.5"+/hr with 2-3" totals over wet upper-soils posing localized
possible flash flooding risk this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...GOES-WV suite depicts a small and fairly compact
roll-up vortex/shortwave over north-central OK shifting ENE along
interface of strong zonal westerlies to the north and increasingly
flattening sub-tropical stream across TX. This sub-tropical jet
speed max at 70kts has left exit divergence favorably aligned over
AR at this time helping to support/maintain initial convective
activity into a broader complex. RADAR and EIR shows the leading
edge of the convection has seen an uptick in activity/cooling as
the cluster further expands into a weak bow like forward
propagating MCS. The positive dPVA from the approaching shortwave
is maintaining solid 40+ kts of west-southwesterly LLJ that slowly
continues to veer with bulge of enhanced total PWats up to 1.7"
interfacing with the upwind edge of the cluster. This will
continue to support upwind flanking redevelopment on the
isentropic moisture flux convergence (as noted with some weaker
elevated development across Yell/Logan and Johnson counties at
this time.

RAP analysis along with GOES-E Visible imagery shows increasing
clearing downstream east of the MS River and with slightly higher
surface moisture; instability is starting to climb over 1000 J/kg
perhaps reaching 1500 J/kg over the next few hours to further fuel
the leading convective cells. Given the strength of moisture
convergence, rain-rates will increasing from near 1"/hr currently
toward 1.5"-1.75"/hr over the next few hours. As the inflow
veers, and some weak divergence in the deeper layer steering flow
across MS into AL, propagation should deflect southeastward a bit
increasing the potential for the flanking development to
repeat/train across east-central AR along and south of the TN/MS
border (in proximity to an old eroding stationary front).

As such, an axis of 2-3" totals are probable. Recent moderate to
heavy rainfall has increased soil saturation over the last few
days with current NASA SPoRT LIS 0-40cm ratios around 60-65% or
slightly above normal. As such, increased run-off is possible and
may result in possible localized flash flooding (as FFG values
1.5-2"/hr; 2-3"/3hrs).=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7dAQwJKs4_u-8TvD6FLNcw5R__R8vOGlBxm4jPVMHErZbzOT0GBX90SS_B4FdjH9Z3XP= 52NByVPw9jnWkB0J219ny5k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35629295 35619178 35439024 35058830 34578749=20
33778780 33468887 33619089 34059281 34709372=20
35369357=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092131
FFGMPD
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100329-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0053
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
529 PM EDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern MS and AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092129Z - 100329Z

Summary...Backbuilding/training showers and thunderstorms are
showing some increase in hourly rain amounts as of late. Hourly
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which could
lead to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been showing some
backbuilding and training character across portions of northern MS
and northern AL, as new activity forms near an instability/thermal gradient/pseudo front and then propagates east, downstream. This
is occurring within an axis of some low-level confluence and ahead
of a very positively tilted shortwave moving across southern MO
and northwest AR, which is adding upper level diffluence.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.4-1.8". ML CAPE to the south is
1000-2000 J/kg.

The 18z GFS-bases GDI implies further increase in cell coverage
and intensity through at least 00z, which is seen at times within
the 18z HREF and 12z REFS guidance. The area of low-level
confluence is expected to shift east with time along with the
parent upper level shortwave. Given the available ingredients,
hourly amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible.=20
Given the somewhat lowered flash flood guidance from recent rains,
flash flooding is expected to be widely scattered in coverage,
with urban areas most sensitive.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7T4DzFEPuF-viri77kXj2gMO2pn24WoR5Kz3a6HYAWivFfTzypaIbnI3GhL9c0flkEnF= EZ2s8ND0UgNI7BCoUoSLLno$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 35138808 35058686 33908502 33328546 32348783=20
33459038 34388969 35048869=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100323
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-100715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0054
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1121 PM EDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...central AL into west-central GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100320Z - 100715Z

Summary...A localized risk of flash flooding will persist across
central AL into west-central GA through 06Z to 07Z. Training with
peak rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes and up to
2-3 inches total rainfall may occur.

Discussion...03Z radar imagery from KFFC showed an MCV just
northwest of Atlanta, associated with a weakening convective
cluster over the AL/GA border. The MCV was tracking steadily
toward the east and cloud tops have been warming on infrared
imagery over the past 1-2 hours as instability weakens. However, a
remnant outflow boundary was analyzed from western GA into central
AL, and was aligned WNW to ESE or parallel to mean storm movement.
MLCAPE has been lowering per SPC mesoanalysis trends between 00Z
and 03Z but 500-1000 J/kg likely remained along and south of the
outflow boundary.

Some ascent will remain across the region ahead of a mid-level
shortwave located over the MO Bootheel at 03Z, with 20-30 kt of
southwesterly 925-850 mb flow overrunning the outflow boundary
from MS into AL and GA. While the window for flash flooding is
shrinking, there will remain some limited potential for an
additional 1-3 inches of rain from portions of central AL into
west-central GA.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8cb38SomtAxAHQ4y82lrqMJ0hKANJTS6kQvBRMpFHDlf8E51PDWUYt1xclqDrxVXj8sO= Hl2LrorvMmZK8mizs5DebHw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34078419 34008362 33598306 33148295 32628342=20
32388406 32398492 32608646 33028760 33638818=20
34038770 33848674 33768601 33738512=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102104
FFGMPD
TXZ000-110300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0055
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
503 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...Hill Country into Central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102103Z - 110300Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing and
expanding in coverage going through the evening hours. High
rainfall rates capable of exceeding 2 inches/hour along with some
periodic cell-training concerns will support a threat for some
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E WV suite shows a well-defined
southern stream closed low and associated mid-level trough
ejecting across northern Mexico. This energy will be gradually
crossing the Rio Grande Valley going into the evening hours, but
will be interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass pooled
across large areas of central TX, including the Hill Country.

MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are already in place across the
region with effective bulk shear values of as much as 40 to 50
kts. Already CI appears to be underway based on the latest
satellite and radar data west of a line from Del Rio to San
Angelo. As the upstream shortwave energy gradually arrives, and
what is left of the warm mid-level CAP erodes, convection should
expand rather rapidly near and to the east of a dryline.

A combination of multicells and supercells are expected within an
anomalously moist environment characterized by PWs of 1.25+
inches, with these values running about 1 to 2 standard deviations
above normal for this time of the year.

Rainfall rates will be capable of locally exceeding 2 inches/hour
with the stronger and more organized convective cells, and some
upscale growth into an elongated MCS is generally expected by
later this evening. This will be supported by a convergent
low-level jet reaching 30 to 40+ kts. Some cell-mergers and
periodic cell-training can be expected, with some localized swaths
of 2 to 4 inches of rain possible.

These rains will pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas of
flash flooding given the high rainfall rates and locally sensitive
terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-lC1A621pQswQp_M-xmUpnsH_VOPGMbO157Q0JLugxibBst1mQP3Sm5pQQiUFwjHJWHG= cimM2CDb3vHpCd6zyBWqsG8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33039909 32909793 31959754 30329885 29430014=20
29290111 29920205 30890183 32310052=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102131
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-110330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0056
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
530 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...Extreme Southeast WI...Northern IL...Northwest
IN...Southwest Lower MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102130Z - 110330Z

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop and increase
in coverage this evening. High rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches/hour coupled with cell-training concerns will drive a
threat for flash flooding, including for the Chicago metropolitan
area, going into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest RAP analysis along with surface
observations shows a quasi-stationary front draped from southeast
IA through northern IL and into southern Lower MI. Multiple waves
of low pressure are transiting the front. Meanwhile, the boundary
layer along and south of the front continues to rapidly
destabilize with MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg seen nosing up
across northeast MO through central IL. This is also occurring
ahead of a wave of low pressure over southern IA.

Upstream shortwave energy along with the eastward advance of this
surface low will drive the development and expansion of strong to
severe thunderstorms across sizable areas of the Midwest over the
next several hours. This convection is then expected to gradually
evolve into a couple of larger scale MCS clusters this evening.
The 18Z HREF guidance and recent special RAOB soundings shows a
strongly sheared kinematic environment, including along the
aforementioned front, which coupled with the available instability
should strongly support supercell thunderstorms at least
initially. Cell-mergers and upscale growth of MCS activity will
favor heavy rainfall totals in addition to the severe hazards.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour are expected which will be
aided by a strong low-level jet of 40 to 50+ kts. This enhanced
moisture and instability transport into the front should persist
well into the evening ahead of the approaching low center which
will favor convective sustenance. Cell-training concerns will
exist in time given nearly parallel alignment of the deeper layer
steering flow with the front. This will support concerns for as
much as 2 to 4 inches of rain locally which will drive a threat
for areas of flash flooding.

This threat will extend across the more urbanized locations
including the Chicago metropolitan area. The primary concern for
excessive rainfall totals for this period will be across northern
IL, but expect northwest IN and southwest Lower MI to also see
this threat materialize late this evening and into the overnight
period.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4tkbRv6AWfHvB_Pfak0CkgURwQLo4u8dMnTMDSaPAgHKgx0kTTqrTSpdB9DQhfin_EFR= f-PCtqkDF8E4XGzveS7td40$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42718717 42588590 41908557 41268601 40648747=20
40488904 40759037 41419074 42089016 42548857=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110216
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-110700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0057
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1014 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...southeastern KS into central MO/western IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110212Z - 110700Z

SUMMARY...Training of thunderstorms is likely to produce a SW to
NE oriented stripe of heavy rain from southeastern KS into
central/northern MO. Flash flooding will be possible in a few
areas with 1 to 2 in/hr rates at times over the next 3-5 hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0150Z showed thunderstorms
expanding in coverage near Wichita, KS, which was the location of
a surface low and attendant cold fronts. Another group of
thunderstorms was located near a surface low in northern MO while
additional thunderstorm development was expanding between the two
surface lows along the frontal boundary from eastern KS into
north-central MO. SPC mesoanalysis and area 00Z soundings within
the warm sector showed PW values of 1.0 to 1.3 inches and MLCAPE
of 1000 to 2000+ J/kg from southeastern KS into MO.

The cold front is forecast to slowly by steadily advance toward
the southeast over the next few hours but a strengthening low
level jet with 850 mb wind speeds increasing in coverage and
magnitude into the 50-60 kt range from southeastern KS into MO,
will support increasing convergence of storms along the boundary.
Mean storm movement parallel to the boundary will allow for
training of cells and 1 to 2 in/hr rainfall rates as the
cluster(s) of thunderstorms advance eastward with time. Storm
total rainfall through 07Z of 1 to 3 inches is expected, but much
of that could fall within 1 to 2 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7bKxiNe35-zdAn05yFCfxvJMNpMjns8sui7UVs8Igzc1H0RcQ9HeB3pmsvKrA6aQ_GWE= JyQD74mTWjIZ3B7e4U5yxeo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...OUN...SGF...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41239017 40708960 39628964 38639149 37709417=20
37089624 36969803 37449813 38119730 39309487=20
39849352 40659244 41159108=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110327
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-110900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0058
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1125 PM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...northeastern IL into northern IN, northwestern OH
and southern MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110324Z - 110900Z

SUMMARY...Training thunderstorms are likely to result in a few
areas of flash flooding from northeastern IL into northern IN,
northwestern OH and southern MI through 09Z. 1 to 2 in/hr rates
and 2 to 4 inches of storm total rainfall can be expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous coverage of thunderstorms was
ongoing over portions of the Midwest at 03Z with a training axis
of cells from west to east through south-central Lower Michigan
(locally 2+ in/hr), a forward propagating segment from southern
Lake Michigan into northeastern IL and additional thunderstorms
upstream. These storms were a combination of surface based and
elevated with sufficient instability and moisture to produce 1 to
2 in/hr rain rates where training was occurring.

Ahead of the approaching upper trough, strengthening 850 mb winds
of 40-50 kt will spread northward through the Midwest into Lower
Michigan with overrunning of the front and rain-cooled boundaries
within the warm sector. These storms will propagate overall in an
eastward fashion, ahead of large scale ascent associated with an
amplifying northern stream mid-level trough over the northern High
Plains. However, areas of training are likely where cells orient
with the mean steering flow from the west to southwest. A second
round of convection is expected to approach northern IL from the
southwest in the 07-10Z time frame tied to thunderstorms moving
across the mid-MS Valley. 1 to 2 in/hr rain rates will be common
within areas of training and storm total rainfall of 2-4 inches is
expected where cell training maximizes through 09Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_YXQzp0WBLGmq37RbsyrVGLD9nd4E_oCY6E_eeiefE_GPYR8u8X96yci7Mb734hL8dC0= IIqkh2POK96yvvxoPpY5ee8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...CLE...DTX...DVN...GRR...ILX...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44198346 44028268 43358224 42558233 41758268=20
41128434 40858614 40758764 40878921 41898928=20
42468705 43528596 43958454=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110528
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-111000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0059
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
127 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...central to northeastern TX, southeastern OK and
southwestern AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110526Z - 111000Z

SUMMARY...Training of heavy rain from SW to NE is becoming
increasingly likely from portions of central/northeastern TX into
southwestern AR and possibly southeastern OK. Rainfall rates of
1-2 in/hr and storm totals of 2-4 inches through 10Z along with
isolated flash flooding will be possible.

DISCUSSION...05Z infrared satellite imagery showed two regions of
colder cloud tops over the Southern Plains, one over eastern OK
and another over south-central TX. Radar imagery and surface
observations showed an outflow boundary between these two regions=20
of convection which extended from just west of Clarksville, TX to
near Corsicana and southwestward to near Gatesville where the
boundary intersected an eastward advancing line segment over
central TX.

A 50-60+ kt 850 mb low level jet (sampled via VAD wind data from
KEWX and KGRK) will help to slow the southward advancement of the
outflow over northeastern TX, and will likely support increasing
thunderstorm development along and north of the boundary. Low
level moisture transport will also act to reduce a relative dry
layer between 850-700 mb as seen on OSPO LPW and RAP analysis
point soundings across the northern Piney Woods section of
northeastern TX. Mean steering flow oriented parallel to the low
level axis of convergence will likely support areas of training as
the advancing convection presently over central TX makes its way
eastward. Additional, more discrete convective development will
also be possible over portions of east-central and northeastern
TX, out ahead of the advancing convective line, but this potential
is a bit uncertain. With or without the development of discrete
cells out ahead of the main cluster, it is appearing more likely
that areas of training will occur through 10Z from northeastern TX
into southwestern AR with 1 to 2 in/hr rain rates from training.
Localized flash flooding will be possible with 2 to 4+ inches of
peak storm total rainfall expected.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4fbnMO9VYH8iZH3LBiBz9oypgjNWu-931qlX_Mi7QkuuYxAras5dIugajCII3BK1K8LK= O87OCJH8M8shVaHD2v452IE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LZK...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34779291 34469230 33709240 33309280 32509363=20
31679442 30919577 30989736 31349792 31629802=20
32099777 32729687 33229614 33829530 34609432=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110853
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-111400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0060
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
452 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...eastern IL, central IN into northern OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110851Z - 111400Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training will increase the potential for
localized flash flooding from portions of eastern IL into central
IN and northern OH through 14Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr and
storm total rainfall of 2 to 4+ inches can be expected.

DISCUSSION...0830Z regional radar imagery showed a broken and
elongated axis of thunderstorms from near St. Louis into central
IL and western IN, followed by another linear segment over
northeastern IN into northwestern OH. These convective axes were
located within the warm sector of a WSW-ENE oriented frontal
boundary, represented by 500 to 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE from
south-central IL into northwestern OH along with PWs of about 1.0
to 1.5 inches (08Z SPC mesoanalysis).

Some minor strengthening of 925-850 mb southwesterly flow (up to
~60 kt) is expected to advance from southern IL into IN and
eventually western OH over the next few hours, helping to focus
one more more axes of convergence near convectively induced
outflow boundaries which will at times be in general alignment
with the mean steering flow from the WSW to SW. This setup will
support training of heavy rain at times with 1 to 2 inches per
hour likely within any axes of training.

Forecasts of instability from the RAP are for a gradual reduction
through 14Z across IL/IN/OH which will act to decrease rainfall
intensity but strong divergence within the right-entrance region
of a powerful 150+ kt upper jet max to the north may help to
compensate for the forecasts of lessening instability. Therefore,
a chance for localized flash flooding seems plausible across the
Midwest over the next 3-6 hours with potential for storm totals of
2 to 4+ inches.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_Z8cFphTvW_N8XFRMYwpQkbaXxErJGIprrWPEANPT9DQhVwQmEJMv9LGPheKZYpsmAo5= hBXdZ-oVJ1wK-8GuROINSvE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42108112 41728081 41108194 40548310 39458592=20
39148846 40248901 41158743 41688553 41668451=20
41668360 41718284=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110956
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-111500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0061
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
555 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...northeastern TX into central/southern AR and
northwestern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110954Z - 111500Z

SUMMARY...A continued increase in thunderstorm intensity and
potential training appears likely over the next few hours from
northeastern TX into central/southern AR and northwestern LA.
Training of thunderstorms will support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+
inches and possible flash flooding through 15Z.

DISCUSSION...Trends in GOES East infrared satellite imagery over
northeastern TX through 0930Z have shown an increase in colder
cloud tops over the past hour, related to an increase in rainfall
intensity along a narrow convective axis, out ahead of a forward
propagating convective line extending from the southern OK/AR
border into east-central TX. This activity was located to the
north of a weakly defined outflow boundary which has made it all
the way to the Houston metro and the recent uptick appears to be
related, at least in part, to increased low level moisture seen
advecting north on OSPO ALPW imagery in the surface to 700 mb
layer over eastern TX/western LA. Confluent flow just above the
surface located beneath modestly diffluent upper level winds was
observed over the TX/AR border where 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE was
estimated on the 09Z SPC mesoanalysis with little to no inhibition.

Low level moisture transport into the region and low level
confluence appear to remain in the short term forecast across the
ArkLaTex and eastward into southern AR and northwestern LA. Given
sufficient instability looks to remain present across the region
over the next 3-6 hours via recent RAP forecasts, an axis of heavy
rain looks likely to setup from northeastern TX into AR/LA. While
this expected SW to NE axis of heavy rain should generally move
from west to east, there is the potential for the southwestern
flank of the axis to stall, supporting the potential for increased
training and rain rates that could exceed 2 in/hr. However, more
likely rain rates within training should fall in the 1-2 in/hr
range. Through 15Z, 2 to 4+ inches of rain will be possible, much
of which could fall within 2-3 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9uI-asL2kWpYIuDXduHCMxNuxYzA8JgQ7Ajo5KuVy07eO8Qqht4G9OoHK1K5yMdEgfj6= 8Bl-L0RfqDeiXC9FeahlHVw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35309103 34999037 33429120 31619338 31059480=20
31729528 33069475 34859258=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111652
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-112250-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0062
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111650Z - 112250Z

SUMMARY...Broken clusters of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon hours. Locally
high rainfall rates, moistening antecedent conditions and some
cell-training concerns will maintain a threat for additional
runoff problems including isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E satellite imagery along with radar
shows broken clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms advancing
across the OH Valley and Lower Great Lakes region. More broadly,
this activity is associated with strong warm air advection and
moisture transport continuing to lift northeastward ahead of a
wave of low pressure over southern Lower MI by also with the
advance of multiple shortwave impulses across the region.

Warm-sector diurnal heating with increasing solar insolation is
noted over central and southern OH and extending back to the
southwest over northern KY, southern IN and southeast IL. This has
allowed for these areas to increasingly destabilize, and MUCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are noted here with 3-hour MUCAPE
differentials of locally 250 to 500+ J/kg seen from far southern
IN and northern KY through central WV. This is allowing for a
well-defined differential heating/outflow boundary to establish
itself which is expected to become an increasing focus for
convection going through the afternoon hours. This will further be
facilitated by arrival of a new shortwave impulse from the Midwest
which should yield favorable 400 to 700 mb DPVA within the broader
warm air advection regime to drive deeper layer ascent.

Meanwhile, areas downstream over western PA and far western NY are
under the influence of a lead shortwave impulse with focused warm
air advection and DPVA yielding broken areas of convection. Some
hints at mesocyclone activity is noted in radar over Lake Erie,
and this may help to bring locally focused rains into far western
NY in a couple of hours. The 12Z HREF/06Z REFS guidance does
attempt to bring the upstream convection back over some areas of central/southern OH through northern WV and southwest PA later
today.

Expecting a gradual uptick in rainfall rates capable of reaching
1.5"/hour with the stronger storms. Given the cell-training
concerns near the aforementioned differential heating/outflow
boundary, some additional rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches will be
possible. This will pose a threat for isolated to scattered areas
of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4epEr0m_uTWVSbIfLr7vCQwmeFuPccCynI3AOkF4kTvyEbQ64setvRY_4fU5ij9gNgh0= Y3tb4NkGOR-qT7LFqWi1mCs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...JKL... LMK...LSX...PAH...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42827882 42437812 40997863 39528042 38428376=20
37878744 38018892 38448943 38948890 40148540=20
40948307 42168059=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 151842
FFGMPD
FLZ000-160000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0063
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...South FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 151840Z - 160000Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving clusters of showers and thunderstorms with
extreme rainfall rates may cause flash flooding going through
early this evening. This could include some urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
radar shows slow-moving clusters of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms impacting portions of Miami-Dade and Collier
Counties.

This convection is focusing within a moist and unstable
environment characterized by MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg
and PWs of 1.5 to 1.7 inches. Some modest shear is in place with
as much as 20 to 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Much of the
activity recently though is tending to get its focus along the
presence of multiple mesoscale boundaries including outflow and
sea-breeze boundaries where there is small-scale convergence
working with the favorable thermodynamic environment.

Some modestly divergent flow aloft is noted also given proximity
of a weak shortwave west of the FL Straits and Cuba. This modest
deep layer ascent coupled with colliding surface boundaries should
tend to keep the convective threat maintained going into the
evening hours before sufficient levels of instability exhaustion
occurs to promote a weakening trend of the convection.

Already parts of the FL Everglades in Miami-Dade County have seen
over 5 inches of rain, with much of the activity staying away from
the urban areas. However, over the next few hours there will still
be a threat locally for some of these stronger thunderstorms and
heavier rainfall rates to impact the more populated areas of
southern FL which in this case will extend to the the southwest
coast including areas from Ft. Myers down through Naples. The
southeast coast of FL meanwhile from Miami down to Homestead will
still need to closely watch some of these slow-moving cells.

Rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches/hour and storm totals locally
exceeding 5 inches are expected where any cells become anchored.
Earlier runs of the HRRR and RRFS were suggesting this near parts
of southwest FL in particular. As such, some areas of flash
flooding will be possible given the very high rainfall rates and
totals which may include some urban impacts.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6VYKq4ZHl918Q3pvMYHNoqpOeYvAl-jH0wrrSGBnRCSi1o3jC2LsBNc7NHfFUTvg-7RE= -pJF1ZBRxkXB7uyLw6uPMHo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...KEY...MFL...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27018174 26468098 26118014 25657992 25178031=20
25298104 26088186 26738218=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262047
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-270230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0064
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
446 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Areas affected...Northern Ohio...Western & Central PA... Southwest
NY...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 262045Z - 270230Z

SUMMARY...Saturated upper-layer soils/low FFG may be locally
exceeded given potential for quick burst thunderstorms capable of
.5-.75"/hr rates and localized totals of 1.5-2", especially
in/near corridor or two of repeating cells.

DISCUSSION...A strong 150-180kt 250mb zonal jet is streaking
across the northern Great Lakes into southern Quebec with a subtle
but sufficiently diffluent right exit region across the Lower
Great Lakes this afternoon. In response, strong southwesterly
warm-air advection regime is drawing higher moisture and slightly
above normal higher theta-E air across the northern Ohio Valley
into the Allegheny Plateau. Low level flow is solid per VWP with
35-45kts of 925-850mb flow from the southwest with sufficient
veering through 700-500mb to allow for a fairly unidirectional
steering flow, with allowable for upstream redeveloping cells to
potentially repeat across the area of concern late this afternoon
into evening.=20

At the surface a well defined front extends from the main surface
low in SE IA across the southern LP of Michigan where secondary
weaker wave exists, likely responding to the mid-level
shortwave/diffluence pattern aloft. Surface moisture convergence
in proximity to the surface front is further enhanced by cooler
Lake Breeze and sharper low level temperature gradient along the
southern coasts. This isentropic boundary in the low level flow
regime will support enhanced moisture convergence at the
northwestern nose of the mid-level instability pool upstream over
IL/IN/NW OH. Available moisture is slightly above average with
total Pwat values AoA 1.25", though the bulk is below 700mb and
any thunderstorm development will help to load in the lower
profiles providing some increased rainfall potential. Forward
propagation will be very fast limiting overall duration, but
Hi-Res CAMs include recent WoFS runs suggest isolated but broader
updrafts capable of the very quick bursts of .5-.75" in 15-30 minutes...particularly further west and deeper into the more
unstable (1500+ J/kg MUCAPE), higher moisture.=20

However, the hydrological ground conditions are very sensitive as
green-up is just about to start. FFG values are below average
with hourly values about 1" reducing to .5-.75" across northern PA
into S central PA. NASA SPoRT LIS products show 0-40cm saturation
values over 60% increasing to over 80% where the lowest FFG value
are; so even less vertically intense showers/thunderstorms capable
of .25-.5"/hr rates downstream into NY/Central PA are likely to
shed nearly all rain toward runoff. The overall magnitudes and
coverage are likely to be limited in scope and lower end, but
still pose a possible incident or two of flash flooding. This is
also a concern across the larger urban centers of NE OH toward
Pittsburgh metro later this evening.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9JCEIU5YItr7GdI7YePu8DnzptH-WUp77K6dlDwxPSN7BGp-1c-UvyeeyqpzQ03SeznQ= 4fb5sFTjjRsN87RHTbZVBP8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...IWX...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42667650 42057570 41177590 40477698 40127924=20
40008191 39968419 40858437 41558200 42068053=20
42287976 42627812=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 310826
FFGMPD
NYZ000-311425-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0065
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Western and Central New York

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 310825Z - 311425Z

SUMMARY...An broken and fairly organized band of heavy showers and thunderstorms will move into western and central New York going
through the morning hours. Locally heavy rainfall rates and some
potential cell-training concerns will couple with moist antecedent
conditions and areas of melting snow to foster a threat for
localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar mosaics and GOES-E infrared
satellite imagery indicate that previously scattered convection
over southern Ontario and Lower Michigan has congealed into a
broken, linear band of semi-organized convection. Cloud tops have
cooled significantly, denoting vigorous, sustained updrafts and
thus a trend toward heavier rainfall rates.

This activity is being driven by multiple upstream waves of low
pressure over Lower Michigan that are transiting a stalled surface
boundary draped across the Lower Great Lakes. Out ahead of these
surface waves, the kinematic and thermodynamic environment is
favorable for heavy, and locally training areas of convection
which should enter western New York over the next couple of hours.
A robust 50+ kt west-southwesterly low-level jet is nosing
directly into the region, and this is generating intense speed
convergence and enhanced warm air advection. The resultant
isentropic ascent and forcing along the front coupled with the
nose of modest instability with MUCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg
should allow for the upstream convective mass to advance east
across western and eventually parts of central New York going
through the morning hours.

Rainfall rates are expected to climb into the 0.50" to 1.0"/hr
range which is supported by the 00Z HREF guidance. Given the
cell-training concerns, some rainfall totals this morning may
reach 1.5 to 3.0 inches. The HREF guidance shows the highest
probabilities of this generally near the Lake Ontario shoreline
and the I-90 corridor.

NASA SPoRT soil moisture and USGS streamflow data suggests an
increasingly moist and sensitive environment that will be
conducive for this morning's rainfall leading to an increase in
runoff concerns. Some snowmelt over the Tug Hill Plateau region is
ongoing and will further contribute to the risk. Thus, the threat
for at least localized areas of flash flooding will exist which
will include the highly urbanized I-90 corridor (Buffalo to
Syracuse) and some of the adjacent steeper terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8AHCzXz7s8TCfOg5ZP_VnIr4GREdIeEiVWfpL-qrMuZ5n0hODg8DcruXkoSt3K8v-wao= 1Z5e0VivG1oCnPGwt5-e5gw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44027576 43927446 43487388 42797394 42387468=20
42307618 42467812 42797920 43377915 43497815=20
43557751 43597685=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 311733
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-312330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0066
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
132 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...West-Central New York...Northern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 311730Z - 312330Z

Summary...Training thunderstorms along a stationary front will
support additional instances of flash flooding this afternoon as
they overlap with moist antecedent soil conditions in west-central
New York and northern Pennsylvania.

Discussion...Airmass recovery is underway across portions of
west-central New York and northern Pennsylvania as remnant heavy
showers and thunderstorms from this morning depart the area ahead
of a weak shortwave. Within the first round of storms, periodic
cell-training led to an estimated 1-3" of rainfall near the Tug
Hill Plateau per recent MRMS and NYS Mesonet data, which led to at
least one report of flooding near Phelps, New York earlier this
morning.

While the first round exits, elevated thunderstorms are
approaching upstream from the Midwest and Ontario as a 40 kt low
level jet interacts with a shortwave and right entrance region
ascent amid widespread 7-8 degree mid-level lapse rates. Over the
next 3-4 hours, the RAP suggests this forcing will lift into the
Northeast and support an environment characterized by 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear.

Accordingly, CAMS are in good agreement for upstream storms to
intensify and train with new development expected over western New
York and northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon, even if they are
too slow with the activity in the Ohio Valley. As these training
storms eclipse 1-1.5"/hr rainfall rates at peak intensity this
afternoon, additional instances of flash flooding are possible
owing to the low FFG values over portions of west-central New York
and northern Pennsylvania -- as low as 0.25-0.5"/hr in places.

Asherman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5EJ-CgQX9tgN6nfLF0Fa6tiHXcmuxFoMcHFultO3zE69V3JEza4xWbKeQtuTn9gKjaR6= KwIuCGdxbVLgYyQfTr9zw60$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...CLE...CTP...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44307567 44047418 43257383 42387405 41997487=20
41857593 41787794 41977970 42797992 43527915=20
43647722=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 312248
FFGMPD
OHZ000-INZ000-010300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0067
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
647 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Indiana and Northern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 312247Z - 010300Z

SUMMARY...A line of training showers and thunderstorms could cause
localized flash flooding across northeastern Indiana and northern
Ohio.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms, demarcated by a pair of segments of
much more intense convection, has set up across northern Indiana
and Ohio this afternoon. The initial segment of storms is
weakening across far northeast Ohio and far western PA. The back
segment of storms is closing in on Ft. Wayne, IN. In between, some
weaker showers and storms have set up in an east-west line, with
the storms also tracking east, resulting in training. The stronger
storms in the back segment over Indiana have a history of
producing rainfall rates to 1.5 inches per hour.

Most high-resolution model guidance, while behind where the storms
actually are by about 2 hours, still suggest that the back segment
in Indiana will "fill-in" as it moves east, resulting in an
east-west oriented cluster of more intense convection where
individual cells embedded within the cluster train over the same
areas. PWATs are over 1.25 inches into the Ohio Valley, and CAPE
values are between 1,000 and 2,000 J/kg into central Illinois and
Indiana. Combined with sufficient forcing along the front, the
setup suggests that the storms will have no trouble keeping storms
intense and capable of heavy rainfall through the late afternoon.
Flash flood guidance of 1.5-2 inches in 3-hours over most of
northern Ohio should be exceeded given the 1.5+ in/hr rates
already seen with the storms over Indiana, especially as the area
in between the segments of storms fills in over the next couple
hours or so.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9katCsrILRBviETCD9baUTBW-entNocx3aUDfVX0zPtQ1-_gWeFWjQKpZxCjtuj3LBoR= n5aJas2ZuX-LnVZ95p0DOIY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41428566 41388486 41388354 41338219 40998116=20
40188133 39788205 39858257 40018339 40278406=20
40528477 40908555=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 312334
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-010500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0068
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
733 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Western New York and Northwestern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 312332Z - 010500Z

SUMMARY...Additional convection moving into western Pennsylvania
and New York will likely cause more flash flooding into the
evening as additional line segments of storms move over previously
hard-hit and low FFG areas.

DISCUSSION... A series of line segments of showers and
thunderstorms are quickly moving eastward out of Ohio and the
Ontario Peninsula towards western New York and Pennsylvania. Very
low FFGs are in place across much of western New York from ongoing
or recently ended storms. As the next round of storms approaches,
additional rainfall will be moving over areas with ongoing
flooding, or in the case of portions of western Pennsylvania, over
areas with low FFGs such that new flooding is likely as the storms
continue to produce occasional rainfall rates exceeding 1" per
hour. Diminishing daylight will help to gradually lower the
instability and potential rainfall rates, however, even somewhat
lighter rainfall under an inch per hour, with sufficient duration,
will cause flash flooding.

As the storms move across New York and Pennsylvania, they remain
likely to align in a roughly west-to-east line, allowing training
from multiple heavier rain cells to move over the same areas.
Thus, while rainfall rates may decline with time, training over
low FFG areas should still result in some flooding. This is in
large part due to a 40-50 kt LLJ tracking WNW across the region,
supplying moisture and instability to the warm environment ahead
of the front, but at an angle sufficiently parallel to the front
to support multiple rounds of training thunderstorms.

Late this evening, all the activity is expected to sink south
across Pennsylvania and weaken with time as nocturnal, more stable
air builds, thus ending the rain threat.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5e9nYAagNkdaLmiARDmb5B-J7MLVifvbNFdGo3hkmYXuJtkjw9XZ1oWUyCPemCjLUfDu= WEZ4i5EVs1mqfDGjSL66QBI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43427851 43347775 43287753 43307704 43307683=20
43087627 42977548 42837468 42627382 41957389=20
41857413 41547507 41197581 40797663 40507758=20
40447868 40357938 40508016 41008064 41948069=20
42547933 42847890 43047908 43307904=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 010256
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-010855-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0069
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Indiana...Ohio...Western
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010255Z - 010855Z

SUMMARY...Organized clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will continue to track across the Ohio Valley overnight. Training
of convective cells will lead to additional localized rainfall
amounts of 2 to 3 inches. Given wet antecedent conditions,
isolated to scattered flash flooding is likely, particularly in
urban areas and locations that have seen prior rainfall.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics indicate a broad, active
corridor of convection extending from central Indiana through Ohio
and into western Pennsylvania. This activity is being driven by a
persistent 40 to 50 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet that is
maintaining strong moisture convergence and isentropic ascent over
convectively induced outflow boundaries south of a slow-moving and
largely stalled synoptic front.

While absolute instability and moisture are modest, the highly
favorable kinematics and the continuous convective regeneration
along these boundaries are resulting in localized pockets of
cell-training. Current MRMS instantaneous rainfall rates are
generally 0.50 to 1.0 inch per hour, but are peaking as high as
1.0 to 1.5 inches per hour occasionally with the strongest and
most anchored cores.

High-resolution guidance, including the 18Z HREF and latest HRRR
runs, indicates this low-level jet will remain robust through much
of the overnight hours before gradually weakening after 09Z. As a
result, this regenerative convective threat will tend to be
sustained at least over the next several hours. In time,
additional slackening of the instability will tend to weaken the
activity and lessen the rain rates. Nevertheless, additional
localized rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected along the
primary training axes overnight.

Recent rainfall has left antecedent soil conditions wet to
saturated across portions of the region, promoting significantly
lower FFG thresholds. The combination of primed basins, fairly
efficient rainfall rates, and rainfall duration will lead to areas
of rapid runoff. As a result, isolated to scattered instances of
flash flooding are considered likely, with an elevated threat for
urban corridors and the sensitive terrain of western Pennsylvania.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5Cqq3Qkxda1cDhhl-m2210Q2IB8-1NPKXUSotooev16O4acN3ywmZbbQOEeHSEHgNphV= lpQWRHzZa9mdWjIbBM7F6J0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41917964 41667841 41117789 40387837 40058033=20
39898267 39958431 40068543 40418605 40978622=20
41488551 41678458 41628250 41868093=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020001
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-020600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0070
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Areas affected...Northeastern Oklahoma & Southeast Kansas into
Central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020000Z - 020600Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of storms developing along a nearly stationary
frontal boundary and developing area of low pressure are training
and merging within the clusters as they track northeast. Despite
very dry antecedent soil conditions, rainfall rates to 2 inches
per hour with each strong cell will cause widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Cyclogenesis along a stationary frontal boundary is
underway across southeast Kansas this evening. A cluster of storms
have developed southwest of the low, and is quickly congealing
with other storms that have developed roughly along the
Kansas-Missouri border south of Kansas City. The storms across
Oklahoma have a history of producing rainfall rates to 2 inches
per hour. Any hail with the storms should diminish with time as
the atmosphere more fully saturates in and around the cluster of
storms. Thus, the heavy rainfall threat will increase into the
night. The low center will likely merge with a second low and
Pacific front which is back to the west (not shown). These two
features approach to each other will stall the eastward
progression of the storms over the next several hours, allowing
additional time for training convection to produce heavy rain.

Antecedent soil conditions are bone dry across all of the
highlighted area, so it may take another couple hours of heavy
rainfall across the warned area before flooding can occur. Locally
however, any areas under an extended duration of heavy rain could
see localized flash flooding occur sooner. PWATs to 1.6 inches are
being advected into the low on 30-40 kt southerly winds at 850 mb,
which will sustain the storms into the overnight as that same
low-level-jet intensifies above 50 kts once the second Pacific
front catches up to the storms.

More substantive eastward progression of the complex is expected
late tonight, after 06Z, as the Pacific front catches up to the
stationary boundary of storms and pushes everything off to the
east. This will substantially diminish the flash flooding threat
for this portion of the Plains.

Wegman

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!67PWvjvzgF5U3nymtUVCkJZO5-yAqUJy5QknMaWNxx8umxVicCfAnM6P3mTvaFirmEm1= VPlHiKZWo96NK2E-cjjv8po$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39889203 39669129 39089118 38339159 37269250=20
36149391 35629503 35399613 35509702 35949717=20
36489724 37049714 37489664 37869625 38649564=20
39219497 39359466 39519416 39629374 39789302=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 020531
FFGMPD
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-021029-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0071
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
129 AM EDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...far eastern Kansas, western/central/southern
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020529Z - 021029Z

Summary...Locally significant flash flooding continues -
particularly across west-central Missouri. Another 2-3 hours of
moderate to heavy rainfall are expected, potentially exacerbating
ongoing flash flooding.

Discussion...An axis of training convection has persisted along a southwest-to-northeast oriented line from just west of Columbia to
about 50 miles north of Joplin. Along this axis, persistent
rainfall has resulted in around 2-6 inches of rainfall in the past
6 hours. The rainfall is being supported by strong southerly
low-level flow (~40 knots at 850mb) impinging on a remnant outflow
boundary from earlier storms. Deep southwesterly steering flow
aloft was enabling additional convective elements to develop
initially from a slightly more buoyant airmass over southeastern
Kansas and move northeastward along this axis. Heavy rain has
resulted in numerous road closures tonight.

Additional heavy rainfall is expected across the impacted region.=20
Deep convection extends from near Joplin southwestward to the
Oklahoma/Kansas border near Bartlesville that will migrate
east-northeastward. The clearing line behind this activity is
roughly along US 75 (near a propagating MCS) and will take another
2-4 hours to clear the region. Flash flooding is expected to
continue (and perhaps worsen) through 10Z/5a central.

Farther south and east, dry antecedent conditions and the
forward-propagating nature of the Oklahoma/Kansas linear
segment/MCS should result in lower chances for flash flooding
overall. Low-water crossing and sensitive spots will have the
greatest risk of isolated flash flooding in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!96GsjcHescerhJ3lgQ1A_gnKd4VW2UJIOnsXQXRJG4FnT6XwEYGU8_Q5qKm5fK_XSf6x= XQ3WmURy7ynKUQ7yom-iMMo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39379336 39269155 37939119 36669237 36579402=20
37059514 37569530 38519466=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021906
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0072
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Thu Apr 02 2026

Areas affected...Southern WI...Eastern IA...Northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021900Z - 030030Z

SUMMARY...Periods of heavy rainfall within approaching
thunderstorms may result in localized flash flooding this
afternoon, potentially impacting the afternoon commute.

DISCUSSION...A narrow band of heavy rainfall north of I-80 is
making its way through eastern IA, northwest IL, and southern WI.
This focused area of mesoscale enhanced rainfall is due to strong
50-60kt 850mb winds out of the SW that are intersecting the
surface warm front as it lifts north. The Midwest is also feeling
the effects or a negatively-tilted 500mb vorticity maximum that is
crossing east of the MO River this afternoon, generating
exceptional upper-level divergence atop the atmospheric column.
The highlighted region features >1.25" PWs, values that are above
the 99th climatological percentile. Meanwhile, strong
thunderstorms have flared up along the surface cold front in
southern IA and northern MO. MUCAPE is likely to range between
500-1,000 J/kg this afternoon as the warm sector races in aloft.
These storms are progressive, but are heading northeast towards
the same section of southern WI, northern IL, and eastern IA that
are seeing MRMS radar estimated rainfall rates over 0.5"/hr. HRRR
sampled soundings show warm cloud layers as deep as 10,000ft, so
while rates may not be overly impressive, the rainfall itself
features some supportive warm-rain processes aloft.

In most cases, these areas would handle 0.5"/hr rainfall rates
fairly well. That said, 1-hr FFGs are generally between 1.0-1.5"
and with MUCAPE values gradually increasing as the warm sector
encroaches, the band of rainfall currently in progress and the
approaching storms could generate hourly rainfall rates up to
1"/hr over the next several hours. Showers and storms remain
progressive, thus limiting the areal extent and capping the
severity of the potential for flash flooding. However, any areas
that contend with both the ongoing band of heavy rain in eastern
IA, northwest IL, and southern WI that then see the more intense
storms pass through this afternoon could encounter some localized
flash flooding and ponding. Any ponding on roadways could cause
some trouble for motorists during the afternoon commute. More
heavily urbanized locations containing a larger concentration of
hydrophobic surfaces are particuarly prone to flash flooding, as
well as low-lying areas and typical spots that drain poorly.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4kI67TM1hzkNwiHmOSK6m1yN5LwLWpPS3lCNlXFC-Yg9N8M29zrJZ7LNa5kbZ4sXjl3B= DOoNLcqj2eA1r7UuMCigUkk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...GRB...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44098771 43658752 43058766 42608790 41848894=20
41488991 41449125 41799184 42539174 42929097=20
43488964 44088827=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031949
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-040150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0073
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Lower Great Lakes & Western PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031950Z - 040150Z

SUMMARY...Progressive but potentially training thunderstorms have
the potential to generate rainfall rates over 1.5"/hr. Locally
saturated soils could be particularly at-risk for flash flooding
this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating and low-level theta-e advection has
destabilized the atmosphere from central IN all the way to western
PA with as much as 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE having become
available in the past 3 hours per RTMA. Mesoscale guidance is
showing as much as 1.5" PWs will be available over the western
half of the at-risk region while PWs range between 1.2-1.5" over
eastern OH and western PA. All PWs referenced are comfortably
above the 90th climatological percentile. Mean winds within the
850-300mb layer are running nearly parallel to a quasi-stationary
front located over northern OH and along the Chautauqua Ridge.

As differential heating along the front strengthens and convective
temperatures over the OH Valley are reached, widespread showers
and storms will develop and track WSW to ENE this afternoon and
evening. Storms tracking parallel to the front with no change in
the mean storm motion will support the potential for training and
even back-building storms this afternoon. Soils in the region have
grown increasingly saturated, particularly eastern OH and western
PA where MRMS soil moisture values are between 50-75% saturated.
12Z HREF shows low chances (10-30%) for 3-hr QPF totals surpassing
3-hr FFGs in northern OH between 21Z and 00Z this afternoon, with
similar low chance probabilities in far western PA. Eastern IN is
farther east of the better probabilistic guidance, but some recent
CAMs runs have shown some potential for 1.5"/hr rainfall rates in
developing cells.

The progressive motion of these cells should limit storm residency
times, but with redeveloping storms expected to the south and
west, training of storms containing up to 1.5"/hr rainfall rates
are possible. 1-hr FFGs for much of the area range between
1.0-1.5" as well, making it possible for areas of flash flooding
to occur this afternoon. Low-lying and poor drainage areas are
at-risk, including more urbanized locations.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8l5tZCQ8U5jzSFpiqd3uD1sg9sw9HuwEmBUXx4_VUkwfn2SsR8DwDeLNy7zNTLlPDV96= lh7H6-9qcXBSYaN0UwToY5s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...ILN...IND...IWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41877921 41557891 41047925 40688006 40088151=20
39928202 39508341 39318469 39408562 40318614=20
40828559 40998427 41158336 41368168 41728016=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032102
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-040300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0074
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
501 PM EDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Southern OK & Northern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032100Z - 040300Z

SUMMARY...Strong-to-severe thunderstorms flaring up along and
ahead of the dryline and an approaching cold front will back-build
this afternoon and produce rainfall rates up to 2"/hr. Instances
of flash flooding are likely.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar and GOES East satellite imagery show
thunderstorms erupting along the cold front over southern KS and
near the dryline from the Red River on south and west. There is no
shortage of instability as RAP mesoanalysis shows anywhere from
2,000-3,000 J/kg of MLCAPE present. PWs currently are less than
1.5" where storms are initiating. That will soon change as
southerly low-level flow sustains the ongoing 850mb theta-e
advection. Meanwhile, the cold front diving south will slow down
as southerly low-level winds intersect the boundary, allowing for
a prolonged window of low-level forced ascent into a highly
unstable environment. PWs will soon top 1.5" as the LLJ
strengthens and warm cloud layers gradually deepen as the evening
approaches.

Excellent vertical wind shear aloft (40-50 kts effective bulk
shear) and increasingly curved low-level hodographs containing as
much as 100-200 m2/s2 of effective SRH will support supercells at
the onset before congealing into a more organized linear cluster
of storms this evening. Where mesocyclones develop, rainfall rates
can be enhanced and exceed 2"/hr in some cases. The concern for
locally significant flash flooding is due to the slowing of the
cold front and the receding dry line as it backs up to the west.
Several hours worth of southerly flow into these frontal
boundaries combined with beneficial vertical wind profiles can
give rise to back-building thunderstorms from north TX into
central and northeast OK through this evening. 12Z HREF guidance
does show low-to-moderate chances (20-50%) for storms that are
capable of producing 6hr QPF > 6-hr FFGs through 06Z tonight. The
20Z run of the WoFS (15km neighborhood probabailities) also showed
some >50% probabilities for >2" of rainfall just north and south
of the OKC metro area through 02Z.

Soils in the Southern Plains welcome the rain given much of the
region's D1-D3 drought status. However, these kind of excessive
rainfall rates over very dry/hard soils can struggle to soak in
rainfall right away and act more as like a hydrophobic surface.
This can lead to rapid rises in water both in poor drainage areas
and near by creek beds. Any metropolitan areas with a greater
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces are also vulnerable. The
combination of excessive rainfall rates up to 2"/hr and what is
appearing to be multiple rounds of thunderstorms into this evening
favors the likelihood for flash flooding. In cases where
back-building and training occur, locally considerable instances
of flash flooding are possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6AiuvJ3eOGnAlJe23itflsM8uEAPnBo3alG2JInTg3_-1idawiIBf7s1ydK8mL7Kuvt2= 5xfQLpIeifP-eGgyqd8U1u4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...OUN...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36929643 36649567 35409609 33489996 33020080=20
32610173 32840212 33650126 34480022 35369909=20
36499793 36859739=20

=3D =3D =3D
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