ACUS02 KWNS 081658
SWODY2
SPC AC 081656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the
Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday,
resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity
is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests
that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south
of the FL Keys.

To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move
quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High
Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb)
surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold
front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the
Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop
within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains
during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday
night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust
potential currently appears unlikely.

..Dean.. 12/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081705
SWODY2
SPC AC 081703

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a cold frontal passage, a surface ridge across the
Southeast will suppress any Gulf moisture return on Tuesday,
resulting in generally dry/stable conditions and negligible inland
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Some thunderstorm activity
is possible over the Florida Straits, but current guidance suggests
that this will largely remain offshore of the FL Peninsula and south
of the FL Keys.

To the north, a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move
quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies and northern High
Plains towards the Upper Midwest. A strong (near/below 990 mb)
surface cyclone will accompany this system, as an attendant cold
front moves through parts of the northern Plains and eventually the
Upper Great Lakes region. Very weak/shallow convection may develop
within an intensifying wind field across the northern Great Plains
during the day/evening, and across parts of the Midwest Tuesday
night, but any organized convective contribution to wind gust
potential currently appears unlikely.

..Dean.. 12/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090506
SWODY2
SPC AC 090504

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that another mid-level high will begin
to build near the Aleutians during this period, but little change is
forecast to the general downstream flow, inland across the Pacific
coast into portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains,
through at least Wednesday night. Farther downstream, it still
appears that large-scale mid/upper troughing will be reinforced
across and east of the Mississippi Valley by at least a few digging
short wave perturbations. There remains notable spread concerning
the smaller-scale developments, including at least one compact, but
vigorous, perturbation digging toward the Great Lakes region, after
emerging from the southern Hudson Bay vicinity, and a couple of
others of northern mid-latitude Pacific origin progressing through
the flow to its south through southeast. Regardless, related
surface developments are not likely to promote a southerly return
flow off the Gulf Basin, where boundary-layer modification in the
wake of the prior front will only be gradually underway. Stable
conditions will generally prevail across the U.S., with negligible
risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091648
SWODY2
SPC AC 091646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Despite the presence of a deep cyclone moving across the Northeast
on Wednesday, low-level moisture return will continue to be
suppressed in the wake of an earlier frontal passage, resulting in
negligible thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. Weak buoyancy
may develop across parts of far south FL and the Keys, but with
generally weak ascent and dry air aloft across this region, any deep
convection is expected to remain offshore.

..Dean.. 12/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100502
SWODY2
SPC AC 100501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high building near
and to the north of the Aleutians, mid-level developments across the
eastern Pacific into western North America are still forecast to
include a belt of strong flow veering to an increasing northwesterly
component across British Columbia and adjacent portions of the
Pacific Northwest, through portions of the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains during this period. One or two short
wave perturbations on the leading edge of this regime will begin to
reinforce broad downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley
into western Atlantic.

Mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as the Gulf
Coast states, but heights across much of the South may tend to rise
in the wake of a significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone forecast
to migrate out of the Northeast through the Canadian Maritimes.
While progressing farther offshore to the north, it still appears
that the primary trailing frontal zone may stall/retreat
northeastward across the southern Atlantic Coast through Tennessee
Valley vicinity, while advancing southward through the lower
Missouri Valley and central Great Plains vicinity by late Thursday
night. At the same time, much colder air probably will continue to
gradually nose southward to the lee of the Canadian and northern
U.S. Rockies.

Models indicate that a remnant preceding front will become more
diffuse across the central through northwestern Gulf Basin, and a
gradual boundary-layer modification may continue across the
northwestern Gulf as a weak southerly return flow begins to develop.
Some boundary-layer moistening appears possible inland across Texas
coastal areas, but forecast soundings indicate that this will occur
beneath pronounced warm/dry layers in the lower/mid-troposphere,
precluding appreciable destabilization through this period.

..Kerr.. 12/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101654
SWODY2
SPC AC 101652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

A broad expanse of northwesterly flow aloft will stretch from the
Pacific Northwest to the Southeast on Thursday as an upper ridge
builds over the eastern Pacific and an upper trough moves offshore
the Atlantic coast. Prior surface cold frontal intrusions into the
Gulf will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the
Rockies. With a dry and stable boundary layer in place,
thunderstorms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 12/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110530
SWODY2
SPC AC 110529

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Friday through Friday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of
the Aleutians, it still appears that the evolving flow may include a
shortwave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the
Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short
wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level
troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great
Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the
persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies may gradually
lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient
tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of
colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the
Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday
night.

In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern
periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern
Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the
northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath
this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening
will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to
develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is
possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become
conducive to scattered deepening convective development prior to 12Z
Saturday.

...Texas coastal areas...
Latest guidance, including available forecast soundings from various
models, still suggests that the environment may become increasing
conducive to convection capable of producing lightning near lower
through middle coastal areas late Friday night. Highest
probabilities for the initiation of at least a couple of weak
thunderstorms may be around 12Z Saturday, just east of the coastal
waters. At least for now, thunderstorm probabilities will be
maintained at less than 10 percent, but, depending on trends in
later model runs, it is possible than minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may still need to be reintroduced.

..Kerr.. 12/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111658
SWODY2
SPC AC 111656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Friday through Friday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will persist near the Pacific coast while broad upper
troughing continues across the eastern U.S. Stronger flow aloft will
be displaced from the only appreciable, albeit modest, moisture
along the Texas coastal plain. A surface low over the OH/TN Valleys
will shift east toward the Mid-Atlantic late in the period, allowing
a weak cold front to develop south toward the western and central
Gulf coasts. Some thunderstorm activity could develop late in the
period over the western Gulf waters as a weak shortwave impulse
moves across northeast Mexico. However, thunderstorm activity is
expected to remain offshore, precluding 10 percent general thunder probabilities.

..Leitman.. 12/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120601
SWODY2
SPC AC 120559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across South Florida
and the Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
The large-scale pattern on Saturday will feature a ridge across the
western CONUS with troughing across the east. This mid-level trough
will amplify on Saturday as a strong mid-level jet streak moves from
the northern Plains to the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front
will sharpen from the Ohio Valley to the Plains and move south
rapidly Saturday evening.

...South Florida...
Tropical moisture will start to advect northward across the southern
Florida Peninsula on Friday. If this advects far enough north during
the day, a few thunderstorms may be possible on the eastern sea
breeze. During the overnight period, storm chances will increase
across the western Florida Peninsula as a mid-level shortwave trough
traverses the Gulf. Limited instability should preclude any severe
weather threat from this activity.

Shallow convection may develop along the southward moving cold front
from southeast Texas to central Alabama late Saturday night, but
warm temperatures aloft should limit lightning potential.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121711
SWODY2
SPC AC 121709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of
the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the
Keys Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

...Gulf Coast...

An upper trough will deepen over the eastern half of the CONUS on
Saturday, though stronger west/northwesterly flow will be displaced
well to the north of the region. At the surface, strong high
pressure will build over the Plains into the Midwest, shunting a
weak cold front south across the western and central Gulf Coast
vicinity during the overnight hours. Modest moisture will be in
place along the TX coast into the central Gulf coast vicinity, with
richer tropical moisture across South FL and the Keys. This will
allow for modest destabilization ahead of the boundary. Weak forcing
for ascent, warm midlevel temperatures, and weak instability will
preclude strong updrafts. Nevertheless, isolated thunderstorm
activity will be possible near the TX coast into southwest LA, as
well as South FL and the Keys.

..Leitman.. 12/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130554
SWODY2
SPC AC 130552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.

...Discussion...
An upper trough will move from the Great Lakes to the western
Atlantic by Sunday night/early Monday. At the surface, strong high
pressure will continue to build south and east from the Midwest to
the Tennessee Valley. This expansive high pressure will push a cold
front into the Atlantic and the Gulf. Richer boundary layer moisture
will remain confined to South Florida and the Keys where showers and
isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning. This activity
may persist into the afternoon while shifting southeast with time.
However, weak instability should limit overall severe weather
potential.

..Bentley.. 12/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131712
SWODY2
SPC AC 131711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1111 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys,
as well as the western Gulf Coast tomorrow (Sunday).

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as
another upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest tomorrow
(Sunday). Surface high pressure and an associated statically stable
airmass will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Rockies,
limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. The best chance
for any isolated thunderstorm development will be along a surface
cold front. At the start of the period (12Z Sunday), a few
thunderstorms may develop along the cold front across the western
Gulf Coast as the front encounters low-level moisture and moves
offshore. Later in the day, the cold front will encounter a
low-level moisture-driven, marginally unstable airmass across the
southern FL Peninsula/FL Keys, where isolated thunderstorms will
also be possible.

Across the Pacific Northwest, cooler temperatures aloft (and
accompanying scant buoyancy) will impinge on the shoreline toward
the end of the period (06-12Z Monday morning). While a couple of
lightning flashes may occur during this time frame, the current
thinking is that the overall coverage of lightning will likely be
too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140644
SWODY2
SPC AC 140642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in western Oregon and Washington on
Monday.

...Discussion...
A strong area of high pressure will dominate the eastern CONUS on
Monday with rich low-level moisture pushed well south into the Gulf.
Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected for most of the CONUS on
Monday. The only exception will be western Oregon/Washington. A
strong surface low will move into British Columbia, with some modest
northward moisture push ahead of a cold front. This low-level
moisture advection, combined with cooling temperatures aloft with
the associated mid-level trough, should result in weak instability
on Monday. A few lightning flashes will be possible.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141706
SWODY2
SPC AC 141705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur in western Oregon and Washington
tomorrow (Monday).

...Synopsis...
A broad but low-amplitude upper ridge will become established east
of the Rockies while a de-amplifying upper trough overspreads the
northwestern U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Surface high pressure/colder
air will prevail east of the MS River, while dry, statically stable
air becomes predominant across the Plains into portions of the
Interior West. Thunderstorm potential will therefore be limited
across most of the U.S. One exception will be portions of the
Pacific Northwest, where colder temperatures aloft will accompany
the aforementioned de-amplifying upper trough. This will yield scant
buoyancy, amid appreciable forcing for ascent, to support a few
lightning flashes wherever deep-moist convection can develop.
Furthermore, 50+ kt flow, within a few hundred m above ground level,
will develop with the passage of the upper trough. If a stronger
storm core can materialize, enough downward momentum transport may
take place to support a few damaging gusts. However, confidence in
this scenario is too low for the introduction of severe
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150700
SWODY2
SPC AC 150659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur over parts of the Pacific Northwest
on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms also
possible over the Texas Coastal Plain early Wednesday morning.

...Pacific Northwest...
A strong mid-level jet streak will approach the Pacific Northwest
coast Tuesday evening. At the surface, a strong cold front will move
onshore and bring the potential for some stronger thunderstorms.
Weak instability is forecast to develop ahead of the surface cold
front off the OR/WA coast Tuesday afternoon/evening. A stronger line
of convection is expected to develop along the front as it
approaches the coast Tuesday evening. Given the very strong wind
field (nearly 100 knots at 500mb), some stronger wind gusts may
develop within the convective line. Forecast instability is quite
weak (100 to 200 J/kg MLCAPE) which casts some doubt on the
efficiency for the stronger mid-level flow to mix to the surface.
This is the primary factor precluding a 5% wind area at this time.
Instability will wane quickly inland and therefore, any stronger
wind gusts will likely be confined to areas along the coast.

...Texas Coastal Plain...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across Texas during the
day on Tuesday. Mid-level forcing will be weak, but a modest
low-level jet will develop across East Texas and persist through the
day. This will bring some return moisture to the Texas Coastal
Plain. Eventually, likely after 06Z, the combination of moistening
low-levels and slightly cooling temperatures aloft will result in
sufficient destabilization for a few isolated thunderstorms within
the zone of isentropic ascent across East Texas.

..Bentley.. 12/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151622
SWODY2
SPC AC 151621

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Tuesday).

...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the northern CONUS
tomorrow (Tuesday), prompting surface troughing across the central
U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Cool temperatures aloft will
overspread the northern OR into WA coastline areas, promoting scant
buoyancy amid deep-layer ascent to support the potential for a few
lightning flashes. Across the western Gulf Coast, adequate return
flow of moisture, driven by aforementioned surface troughing, will
support marginal buoyancy and associated potential for isolated
thunderstorms early Wednesday morning.

..Squitieri.. 12/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160655
SWODY2
SPC AC 160654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
and the northern Rockies vicinity Wednesday morning. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the
Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak and associated mid-level trough over
the Pacific Northwest will amplify as it advances east through the
day. A very strong surface low (~985mb) will move from British
Columbia to the Upper Midwest through the period. A strong cold
front will extend southwest from this surface low. This surface low
will begin the day in the vicinity of northern Idaho/eastern
Washington into eastern Oregon. It will move quickly southeast
through the day. It will move across the Plains Wednesday evening
and into the Midwest by early Thursday morning.

...Northern Rockies Vicinity...
A line of shallow convection will likely exist along a strong cold
front at 12Z Wednesday somewhere across eastern OR/WA into northern
Idaho. Forecast soundings show only limited instability, but with
additional forcing along the front, some stronger cores within the
line may deepen enough for some lightning generation. In addition, a
very strong wind profile is present which may result in some gusty
winds within this line. Very weak instability is the primary
limiting factor for a Marginal Risk.

...Midwest...
Moisture will advect northward from the southern Plains and into the
Ozarks Wednesday and Wednesday evening. At the very end of the Day 2
period (09-12Z Thu) this moisture is expected to interact with the
rapidly advancing cold front. Instability will be weak, but
sufficient for storm development along the frontal zone by 12Z
Thursday. In addition, a low-level jet will rapidly strengthen
Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Isentropic ascent
within this low-level jet axis, combined with increasing elevated
instability, may be sufficient for isolated storm development
between 06Z and 12Z.

..Bentley.. 12/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161720
SWODY2
SPC AC 161718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over much of the northern
Rockies on Wednesday, with a greater probability across the Texas
Coastal Plain. Sporadic activity may also occur Wednesday night into
the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. Severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough and cold front will move across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies on Wednesday, with substantial
cooling aloft and strong winds. Daytime heating will lead to areas
of weak instability, with scattered lightning possible especially
over ID and western MT/WY. Overnight, a strong cold front will surge
south across the Great Plains, and sporadic lightning may occur with elevated/weak convection.

Southeast of this system, a low-latitude wave will be located over
southern TX, with cool midlevel temperatures present. This will aid destabilization despite relatively cool surface temperatures.
Dewpoints in the 60s F will be common across the Coastal Plain and
perhaps toward the ArkLaTex late, however, given the surface high to
the east, low-level trajectories will favor cool surface
temperatures and elevated instability in most areas.

..Jewell.. 12/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170653
SWODY2
SPC AC 170651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the mid-level
trough across the central Plains early Thursday and emerge across
the Ohio Valley by Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will
continue east and take on a more neutral to perhaps negative tilt by
early Friday across the East Coast. A strong (sub 990mb) surface low
will move from the Upper Midwest to southern Quebec with a trailing
cold front sweeping from the Midwest to the East Coast.

...OH/TN Valleys...
The cold front is expected to interact with the richer low-level
moisture early in the period across Illinois and Missouri with a
shallow line of thunderstorms expected to develop. In addition, some
weak elevated instability may develop ahead of this front as cooling
mid-level temperatures result in sufficient elevated instability for
storms. Low-level instability ahead of the front is expected to
remain quite weak (100 to 200 J/kg). A strong frontal circulation
should overcome the weak instability and produce sufficient lift for
lightning. Any updrafts deep enough to produce lightning, and with
minimal inhibition (seemingly around 55F surface dewpoint) may also
have at least some isolated damaging wind threat given the 60 to 70
knot low-level jet around 1km.

Greater instability is expected south of the TN/MS/AL border where
upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are forecast. However, despite the
more favorable thermodynamics, the upper-level forcing will be
weaker. Therefore, it is unclear whether the line of storms will
continue that far south, and additional convection ahead of the
front will likely struggle given the weak lapse rates/minimal
heating.

...Eastern Virginia into North Carolina...
Strong storms and potential supercells are expected over the warm
Gulf Stream waters Thursday evening. Some guidance indicates surface
based instability may advect inland across far eastern North
Carolina which would allow some of these stronger storms to move
inland. Current expectation is for stronger storms and 60+F
dewpoints to remain mostly offshore, so no marginal risk will be
added.

Late in the period, as the cold front crosses the Appalachians,
some increase in storm strength is anticipated as mid 50s dewpoints
east of the Appalachians provide weak instability to fuel the
storms. If more aggressive inland moisture advection occurs, similar
to the scenario mentioned above, some marginal damaging wind threat
could materialize given the strong wind field.

..Bentley.. 12/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171726
SWODY2
SPC AC 171725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential will be limited on Thursday, but isolated strong
wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough will move across Midwest on Thursday with low
pressure moving across the Great Lakes. A cold front will extend
south from this low with wind shift moving across the OH and TN
Valleys during the day and into the evening. Minimal destabilization
is forecast ahead of the front as clouds and early day precipitation
hamper heating. Mostly elevated instability is forecast, though
shear profiles will be strong. Despite a marginal/cool boundary
layer across the warm sector, deeper ascent along the cold front
could support shallow moist convection capable of augmenting gusts
with the frontal passage.

Elsewhere, moisture and instability will increase overnight well off
the NC Coast, but supercells developing over the water may
eventually skirt the Outer Banks of NC toward the end of the period.
At this time it appears the instability gradient will remain
offshore.

..Jewell.. 12/17/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180656
SWODY2
SPC AC 180655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night.

...Discussion...
A line of thunderstorms is expected along a strong cold front
extending from eastern New York to eastern North Carolina Friday
morning. This line of storms is expected to be mostly elevated from Pennsylvania northward. From northern Virginia southward, some weak
instability is possible ahead of the front as upper 50s to near 60s
dewpoints advect northward. Forcing will be weaker farther south,
and 00Z CAM guidance supports this with a more broken line of storms
that far south. If a more consolidated, strong frontal band can
continue where the near 60s dewpoints are present, a few isolated
strong wind gusts may occur for a few hours in the morning before
the front moves offshore.

In the wake of this front, benign conditions are expected across
most of the CONUS on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible
across western Washington and far northwest Oregon, but this
thunderstorm activity should remain weak.

..Bentley.. 12/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181715
SWODY2
SPC AC 181714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night. Severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large negative-tilt upper trough will extend from the upper Great
Lakes into the Southeast Friday morning, and will eject
northeastward across Mid Atlantic and New England late in the day.
At the surface, low pressure will move across southern Quebec, with
a cold front extending south from NY into the eastern Carolinas
Friday morning. This front will quickly push into New England by
midday and will already be off the NC Coast. Southerly surface winds
will bring 50s F dewpoints as far north as NJ ahead of the front,
with low 60s F into eastern NC and VA.

...Northeast...Eastern VA and NC...
Strong lift along the cold front will likely support a higher
reflectivity line of precipitation and possibly shallow convection
from eastern PA into MD and eastern VA/NC Friday morning, which will
rapidly move east toward the Hudson Valley and extending southward
and offshore between 15-18Z. Forecast soundings indicate a cool
boundary layer and zero SBCAPE over northern parts of the frontal
zone, with minimal SBCAPE farther south. There may be a short window
of convectively augmented wind gusts prior to the line moving
offshore, but instability, early time of day and limited lapse rates
aloft suggest minimal overall risk.

..Jewell.. 12/18/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190652
SWODY2
SPC AC 190650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across coastal sections of
Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a shortwave trough
over Ontario/Quebec Provinces will shift eastward across the Great
Lakes and Northeast on Saturday as an upstream trough approaches the
Pacific Northwest Saturday night. Slowly rising heights will extend
across the southern U.S. through Saturday night in association with
an upper-level high centered over northern Mexico.

As modest height falls develop across the Pacific Northwest Late
Saturday, very weak buoyancy (on the order of 100 J/kg) may develop
along the immediate coastal areas. Isolated convective elements may
deepen sufficiently for charge separation/lightning production.

Modest low-level moisture should begin returning to the upper
Texas/LA coast Saturday on strengthening southerly flow, with 50s to
near 60 deg F surface dewpoints as far north as the Arklatex region.
The presence of a capping inversion and lack of notable ascent
suggests negligible chances for thunderstorms through Saturday
night.

..Bunting.. 12/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191728
SWODY2
SPC AC 191726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out near coastal sections of
Washington and northwest Oregon Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
A benign pattern for thunderstorms will exist on Saturday across
most of the CONUS with a broad belt of westerly winds aloft and high
pressure over the East. While a trough amplification will develop
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes, antecedent dry
surface trajectories around the surface high will maintain stable
conditions across those areas.

To the west, minimum weak thunderstorm potential may approach
coastal WA into Sunday morning as a low-amplitude wave approaches. A
sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated instability cannot be
ruled out as well farther south across western OR into northern CA,
but the overall risk of thunderstorms is quite low.

..Jewell.. 12/19/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200549
SWODY2
SPC AC 200548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Discussion...
Progressive/generally zonal upper-level flow will prevail over the
CONUS on Sunday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move inland
over the Pacific Northwest, with thermodynamic profiles potentially
becoming conducive for a few low-topped thunderstorms mainly for
coastal portions of Washington. East of the Rockies, surface high
pressure and continental trajectories will be prevalent with
essentially nil thunderstorm potential. Gradual air mass
modification and low-level moistening will occur over the western
Gulf. However, a limited forcing regime and residual capping are
currently expected to preclude thunderstorms along the Texas coast.

..Guyer.. 12/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201705
SWODY2
SPC AC 201704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow aloft will become modestly more amplified on Sunday.
Upper-level ridging will become more prominent in the central U.S. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move into the Northwest during
the evening. Isolated low-topped thunderstorms may impact coastal
areas of Washington and far northwest Oregon. Along the central Gulf
coast, a cold front will slow and become nearly stationary inland. A
weak warm/moist advection regime could lead to development of
showers. Given the slight rise in mid-level heights, residual
capping, and lack of greater low-level forcing, potential for
thunderstorm development within this regime still appears low.

..Wendt.. 12/20/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210637
SWODY2
SPC AC 210635

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Model guidance continues to show an upper-level ridge and quiescent
conditions influencing weather across much of Lower 48 states on
Monday. A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the eastern
Pacific into WA and British Columbia during the period.
Increasingly cool mid-level temperatures will support pockets of
scant instability near the Pacific Northwest coast. Widely
scattered showers and perhaps a few low-topped thunderstorms may
develop along the immediate coast. Farther southeast along the
lower coast of TX within a seasonably moist airmass, weak convection
may develop but negligible forcing will likely limit convective
potential with this activity.

..Smith.. 12/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211648
SWODY2
SPC AC 211646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1046 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Minimal thunderstorm potential remains evident across much of the
CONUS on Monday, as upper-level ridging is maintained over the
central U.S. One exception may be across parts of coastal WA/OR as a
mid-level shortwave trough progresses eastward from the eastern
Pacific into British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest through
Monday afternoon/evening. Even though daytime heating and low-level
moisture are forecast to remain limited, cool temperatures aloft and
weak MUCAPE associated with the shortwave trough may support
occasional lightning flashes with low-topped convection moving
inland along the immediate WA/OR Coast.

A plume of mid-level moisture and associated precipitation will
impact parts of northern/central CA through the period, although
warmer mid-level temperatures compared to locations farther north
and negligible forecast instability suggest little potential for
lightning. Elsewhere, very weak forcing aloft should limit
thunderstorm potential across coastal TX to the central Gulf Coast,
even as low-level moisture gradually increases across these areas.

..Gleason.. 12/21/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220635
SWODY2
SPC AC 220633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...California...
An upper trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the West
Coast on Tuesday. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale trough will likely reach the central and northern CA
coastal areas late Tuesday night. A surface low will develop and
migrate northeast reaching the OR-CA border by early Wednesday
morning. Flow will increase during the period as a 100-kt 500-mb
jet impinges on the central coastal areas of CA. Yet, only scant
instability is currently progged. This meager buoyancy will
generally focus near the coast but sporadic pockets will probably
develop farther inland over the central valleys late Tuesday night.
Low-topped convective showers and isolated thunderstorms will
gradually increase in coverage coincident with increased forcing for
ascent and instability. Given the dearth of buoyancy forecast, will
preclude the introduction of low-severe probabilities.

Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across the Lower 48.

..Smith.. 12/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221714
SWODY2
SPC AC 221712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
An expansive and unseasonably strong upper ridge will dominate the
mid and upper-level flow pattern across the CONUS Day2/Tuesday. As
the ridge intensifies, troughing on the flanks of the ridge will
also strengthen. The western most trough, and a mid-level shortwave
trough embedded within it will likely reach the central and northern
CA coastal areas late Tuesday night. Strong ascent and flow aloft
will support a deepening surface low which will support onshore flow
and some thunderstorm potential over much of coastal CA/OR.

...West Coast...
As the upper trough deepens over the West Coast, strong onshore flow
will develop and support inland transport of low-level moisture
across much of coast and the CA central Valley. Cooling mid-level
temperatures and strong ascent associated with the embedded
shortwave will overspread this air mass contributing to weak
destabilization late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Low-topped
convection, capable of occasional lightning, is expected to increase
in coverage overnight. While a stronger storm is possible,
especially along and ahead of the surface cold front, the scant
buoyancy and overnight timing suggest severe potential is very low.

Elsewhere, moisture advection is likely over parts of the southern
Plains and far south TX beneath the upper ridge as the surface
reflection shifts eastward. Despite persistent southerly flow and
increasing surface dewpoints, little to no ascent and warm mid-level temperatures should preclude thunderstorm development outside of far
south TX.

..Lyons.. 12/22/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230702
SWODY2
SPC AC 230700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND INLAND IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, hail and
potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into
Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland
across the San Jouquin Valley.

...California...
A ridge aloft will move eastward across the central U.S. on
Wednesday, as a mid-level trough moves eastward across the eastern
Pacific. Ahead of this large-scale feature, a subtle shortwave
trough will approach the California coast Wednesday afternoon. As
heights gradually fall, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture
will overspread most of California during the day. Thunderstorm
development will be possible along the central and southern
California coast, and inland across the San Joaquin Valley. The
greatest chance for severe storms will be as the left exit region of
a 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet moves across the San Joaquin Valley
during the mid to late afternoon. Near this feature, very strong
deep-layer shear will exist and MUCAPE is expected to peak in the
500 to 750 J/kg range. This should be enough for a few
semi-organized storms with a threat for hail and marginally severe
gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. An isolated severe
threat is expected to continue into the overnight period, and may
shift southward along the coast into southern California, as a
second minor impulse approaches and moves inland.

..Broyles.. 12/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231725
SWODY2
SPC AC 231724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts, small hail and
potentially a brief tornado will be possible from Wednesday into
Wednesday night along parts of the California coast, and inland
across the San Joaquin Valley.

...California Coast...
West of an imposing upper ridge building over the central US, deep
troughing will intensify Wednesday and Wednesday night over the
eastern Pacific. Several embedded disturbances will track onshore
over parts of the West Coast. Strong ascent and strengthening
onshore flow will aid in modest destabilization, first near the
southern CA coast/LA Basin and eventually farther north and inland.

A band of storms will likely be ongoing over southern CA and
adjacent waters early Wednesday morning. Strong flow aloft (1km AGL
wind 50+ kt) may mix to the surface supporting strong gusts and the
potential for a brief tornado. A second more potent shortwave and
surface low (sub 985 mb) will intensify and move near the
central/northern CA Coast into early Thursday. A broken, low-topped
band of storms along the advancing cold front may eventually move
onshore overnight with a risk for occasional strong gusts.

...San Joaquin Valley...
Across central CA, cold mid-level temperatures (-24 to -27 C),
strong height falls and the left exit of a 100+ kt mid-level jet
will overspread 50s F surface dewpoints across the northern and
central San Joaquin Valley Wednesday afternoon and evening. Model
soundings show modest MUCAPE (max around 500 J/kg) amid veering wind
profiles and enlarged hodographs. Despite the limited buoyancy, a
few semi-organized supercells are possible. Damaging gusts, hail and
a brief tornado are possible with the strongest storms before
convection gradually moves eastward into the higher terrain and
weakens.

..Lyons.. 12/23/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240657
SWODY2
SPC AC 240656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential to produce marginally severe wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado, will be possible on Thursday along
parts of the central California Coast.

...California Coast...
A mid-level low and an associated trough over the eastern Pacific
will gradually approach the West Coast on Thursday. Ahead of the
trough, a stream of moisture will feed into California, where
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the day. At
the surface, a front is forecast to move southward along the central
California coast. To the south of the front near the coast, surface
dewpoints will be in the 50s F. In addition, a 50 to 60 knot
low-level jet is forecast to be in proximity to the higher surface
dewpoints. This feature will create strong low-level shear along the
central California coast, where some forecast soundings have curved
hodographs and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity above 250 m2/s2. This
could support a marginal severe threat, with cells that rotate
within short line segments. A brief tornado or isolated severe wind
gust will be possible.

..Broyles.. 12/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241730
SWODY2
SPC AC 241728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential to produce marginally severe wind gusts
and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible on Thursday along parts
of the central California Coast.

...Central California Coast...
A broad upper low with multiple embedded disturbances will continue
to linger over the West Coast Thursday. Ahead of the trough, a
stream of moisture associated with an ongoing atmospheric river will
continue overspreading much of California where numerous convective
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during
the day and continuing into early Friday. Buoyancy will be weak, but
MUCAPE peaking around 400 J/kg amidst the strong westerly flow could
support a couple marginally severe storms.

One of the more intense embedded features will likely move onshore
across parts of central CA early in the period before lifting
northward across southern WA Thursday evening. A strong offshore low
and cold front will likely support a broken band of low-topped
storms moving onshore early. Beneath a 50 to 60 knot southwesterly
low-level jet, flow aloft may mix down to the surface supporting
marginally severe gusts. Additionally, moderate shear in the lowest
few km could support a brief tornado with any transiently organized
storms.

A second embedded impulse is forecast to approach the coast farther
south into early Friday. Ascent ahead of the trough and a second
weaker cold front will help support another band of low-topped
storms. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding buoyancy for this
round given the overnight timing and multiple rounds of rain prior.
Still, some CAM guidance shows a narrow frontal band of low-topped
storms capable of damaging gusts or a brief tornado moving onshore
over the central Coast before 12z Friday.

..Lyons.. 12/24/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250657
SWODY2
SPC AC 250656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or
Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level ridge will move across the central U.S. on Friday, as a
trough moves into the western states. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible during the day from near the trough in central California
eastward into southwest Nevada. Additional thunderstorms will be
possible in the afternoon across parts of the Intermountain West as
surface temperatures warm. A third area with thunderstorm potential
will develop in parts of the central Appalachians as a shortwave
trough moves southeastward across the region. No severe threat is
expected over the continental U.S. on Friday or Friday night.

..Broyles.. 12/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251718
SWODY2
SPC AC 251717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or
Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A persistent mid-level ridge will begin to weaken as it moves across
the central U.S. Friday. At the same time, a broad trough over the
West Coast will finally move onshore and into the western states.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day across
coastal California eastward into the Great Basin/Intermountain West,
as moisture associated with the trough streams inland. Weak buoyancy
and only minimal surface heating from remnant cloud cover and
multiple days of precipitation should greatly limit severe
potential.

...Eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic...
A secondary trough on the eastern periphery of the ridge will
intensify as it moves out of the Great Lakes and into the
Northeastern US late Friday into early Saturday. A modest surface
low and low-level warm advection will allow for weak elevated
destabilization and isolated storms over parts of eastern MI and OH,
into the central Appalachians Friday evening. Buoyancy will become
increasingly scant farther east into the Mid Atlantic. While a few
storms remain possible into early Saturday, peak MUCAPE below 500
J/kg suggests severe potential is very low.

..Lyons.. 12/25/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260546
SWODY2
SPC AC 260544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Midwest...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible on
Saturday night/early morning Sunday, within a broad low-level warm
conveyor ahead of an expansive positive-tilt upper trough across the
West. Guidance does differ in the degree of coverage prior to 12Z
Sunday, with greater convective potential expected on D3. This
appears largely tied to the degree large-scale ascent and attendant moistening/removal of prior inhibition. Small hail seems plausible
given adequate effective bulk shear, centered on the Mid-MS Valley
vicinity. But meager elevated buoyancy is anticipated where
convection forms, rendering negligible severe hail potential.

..Grams.. 12/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261725
SWODY2
SPC AC 261723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging over the central US is forecast to weaken as
broader troughing over the West begins to move eastward. A
positive-tilt lead shortwave will move from the central Rockies over
the Plains, into the upper OH Valley Saturday and Saturday night.
Lift from this feature will deepen a surface low over the MO Valley
allowing for some return moisture and an increase in low-level warm
advection Saturday night. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop and
support isolated thunderstorms ahead of the trough from eastern
KS/OK into the upper OH Valley. Severe potential appears limited
owing to MUCAPE generally below 500 J/kg and the potential for any
stronger storms to mainly exist beyond 12z Sunday (Day 3).

..Lyons.. 12/26/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270639
SWODY2
SPC AC 270637

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO THE
OH AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A low-probability severe thunderstorm threat is forecast from Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night from Missouri-Arkansas into the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.

...MO/AR to the OH/TN Valleys...
Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of
an upper trough, mainly on Sunday night, as it progresses from the
High Plains to the Great Lakes. This will induce deepening of a
surface cyclone from the Lower MO Valley towards Lake Huron.
Attendant cold front will accelerate Sunday night as it quickly
sweeps east into the Upper OH Valley and south into the northwest
Gulf by 12Z Monday.

Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms are most likely on
Sunday morning across parts of the Mid-MS Valley to the southern
Great Lakes within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor. It is
plausible that a few updrafts might weakly rotate, but meager
buoyancy atop the stable surface and cluster convective mode appears
supportive of only small hail.

Primary forecast challenge is the degree of surface-based
destabilization by Sunday afternoon, which will largely influence
tornado and severe thunderstorm wind potential. Latest guidance
remains split into two paths. This evening's RRFS/RAP/HRRR/HRW-ARW
suggest that a plume of meager buoyancy with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg
should become established ahead of a cold front across the Ozarks to
a portion of the Mid-MS Valley near the surface cyclone by
afternoon. Meanwhile the NAM and HRW-NSSL indicate little to no
surface-based buoyancy in the warm-moist sector along the front.
Guidance consensus does suggest at least a low-topped, thin QLCS
should become established along the front from IL/IN towards AR by
early evening.

The progressive nature of the front along with the paucity of
surface-based instability downstream renders large uncertainty in
whether lightning-producing convection will be maintained Sunday
night along the front. However, kinematic fields will become
increasingly impressive, with strong gusts likely accompanying
low-topped convection along the front. CAM consensus though is for
convection to wane early morning Monday as instability remains
negligible. As such, have maintained the prior level 1-MRGL risk for
wind, with a subset of low tornado probabilities from MO to IN.

..Grams.. 12/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271735
SWODY2
SPC AC 271733

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN
TENNESSEE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO
AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of the middle
Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon, accompanied by at least some
risk for severe weather while spreading into lower Ohio Valley
through Sunday evening. This may include potential for a tornado or
two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana.
Otherwise, potentially damaging wind gusts appears the primary
severe threat.

...Discussion...
Much of the interior U.S. remains anomalously warm, as westerlies
across the Pacific into western North America undergo amplification.
Later today through Sunday, models indicate that this will include
mid/upper ridging building inland across British Columbia and the
Pacific Northwest, through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies and
adjacent Prairies/northern Great Plains. Downstream, it appears
that a pair of short wave troughs will come in phase while migrating
across and east of the Rockies, and provide support for strong
cyclogenesis. By late Sunday night, guidance generally indicates
that the center of a deep, occluding surface low will reach the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity, with a strong trailing cold front
advancing through the western slopes of the Appalachians and
northwestern Gulf/Gulf coast region.

...Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley...
There remains notable spread within/among the various model output
concerning the evolution of the developing surface cyclone across
the lower Missouri Valleys through Great Lakes region, including
timing of periods of more rapid deepening Sunday through Sunday
night. This could substantially impact the location, timing and
extent of any associated thunderstorm development and accompanying
severe weather potential.

In general, it does appear that the pre-frontal warm sector will be
relatively moist, with surface dew points near/above 60F likely as
far north as a developing warm front, east of the deepening surface
low, across parts of middle Mississippi Valley into southern Great
Lakes region, by Sunday afternoon. Convection allowing guidance and
other model output suggests that forcing for ascent along the warm
front, near and east of the low, may be the focus for highest
thunderstorm probabilities through the period. However, based on
forecast soundings, relatively warm mid-level temperatures will tend
to minimize CAPE, and the risk for severe hail and wind for
convection rooted above the cool/stable boundary layer appears
negligible.

Relatively warm air aloft appears likely to be problematic within
the surface warm sector as well, particularly given forecast weaker
mid/upper forcing for ascent. However, there does appear a
consensus in model output that a corridor of weak pre-frontal
boundary-layer destabilization could develop by early Sunday
afternoon across parts of south central/east central Missouri into
central Illinois. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer wind
fields/shear and perhaps a period of glancing mid/upper support for
upward vertical motion, there may be a window of opportunity for
strong thunderstorm development, which could spread just ahead of
the front into the Ohio Valley before diminishing Sunday evening.

Based on forecast soundings, low-level hodographs to the
east-southeast of the deepening cyclone may become conducive to
low-topped supercells posing the risk for a tornado or two across
parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana late Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, low-level hodographs, trending more linear
along the front to the southwest, will generally support a narrow
line of convection with potential mix down 40-50 kt mean flow in the
lowest 3 to 6 km.

Once thunderstorm development wanes, the potential for convectively
enhanced gusts will diminish, but strong wind gusts associated with
the cold frontal passage are likely through much of the remainder of
the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys.

..Kerr.. 12/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271755
SWODY2
SPC AC 271754

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...ADJACENT NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN
TENNESSEE...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO
AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WESTERN AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop across parts of the middle
Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon, accompanied by at least some
risk for severe weather while spreading into the lower Ohio Valley
through Sunday evening. This may include potential for a tornado or
two across parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana.
Otherwise, potentially damaging wind gusts appear the primary severe
threat.

...Discussion...
Much of the interior U.S. remains anomalously warm, as westerlies
across the Pacific into western North America undergo amplification.
Later today through Sunday, models indicate that this will include
mid/upper ridging building inland across British Columbia and the
Pacific Northwest, through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies and
adjacent Prairies/northern Great Plains. Downstream, it appears
that a pair of short wave troughs will come in phase while migrating
across and east of the Rockies, and provide support for strong
cyclogenesis. By late Sunday night, guidance generally indicates
that the center of a deep, occluding surface low will reach the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay vicinity, with a strong trailing cold front
advancing through the western slopes of the Appalachians and
northwestern Gulf/Gulf coast region.

...Middle Mississippi/Ohio Valley...
There remains notable spread within/among the various model output
concerning the evolution of the developing surface cyclone across
the lower Missouri Valley through Great Lakes region, including
timing of periods of more rapid deepening Sunday through Sunday
night. This could substantially impact the location, timing and
extent of any associated thunderstorm development and accompanying
severe weather potential.

In general, it does appear that the pre-frontal warm sector will be
relatively moist, with surface dew points near/above 60F likely as
far north as a developing warm front, east of the deepening surface
low, across parts of middle Mississippi Valley into southern Great
Lakes region by Sunday afternoon. Convection allowing guidance and
other model output suggest that forcing for ascent along the warm
front, near and east of the low, may be the focus for highest
thunderstorm probabilities through the period. However, based on
forecast soundings, relatively warm mid-level temperatures will tend
to minimize CAPE, and the risk for severe hail and wind with
convection rooted above the cool/stable boundary layer appears
negligible.

Relatively warm air aloft appears likely to be problematic within
the surface warm sector as well, particularly given forecast weaker
mid/upper forcing for ascent. However, there does appear a
consensus in model output that a corridor of weak pre-cold frontal boundary-layer destabilization could develop by early Sunday
afternoon across parts of south central/east central Missouri into
central Illinois. Coincident with strengthening deep-layer wind
fields/shear and perhaps a period of glancing mid/upper support for
upward vertical motion, there may be a window of opportunity for
strong thunderstorm development, which could spread just ahead of
the front into the Ohio Valley before diminishing Sunday evening.

Based on forecast soundings, low-level hodographs to the
east-southeast of the deepening cyclone may become conducive to
low-topped supercells posing the risk for a tornado or two across
parts of central Illinois into north central Indiana late Sunday
afternoon. Otherwise, low-level hodographs, trending more linear
along the cold front to the southwest, will generally support a
narrow line of convection with potential mix down 40-50 kt mean flow
in the lowest 3 to 6 km.

Once thunderstorm development wanes, the potential for convectively
enhanced gusts will diminish, but strong wind gusts associated with
the cold frontal passage are likely through much of the remainder of
the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys.

..Kerr.. 12/27/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280545
SWODY2
SPC AC 280543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday Night.

...Discussion...
A deep surface cyclone near Lake Huron at 12Z Monday will occlude as
it tracks into QC. A full-latitude occluded/cold front will arc
across NY to the FL Panhandle and western Gulf on Monday morning,
before clearing the entire Atlantic Seaboard by Monday night.

Scant elevated buoyancy may be present in two regimes on Monday
morning. One within the low-level warm conveyor ahead of the
occluded portion of the front across parts of eastern NY into New
England. The second immediately behind the cold front along the Rio
Grande in Deep South TX. Thunderstorm probabilities, while nonzero,
still appear to be below 10 percent in both areas. In between, weak
mid-level lapse rates should support only shallow convection across
the Southeast as the front moves east.

..Grams.. 12/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281720
SWODY2
SPC AC 281718

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley, the risk for
thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Within one branch of westerlies emanating from the northern
mid-latitude Pacific, models indicate that broad mid-level ridging
will be maintained across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest
through the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies and adjacent
Prairies/Great Plains through this period. Downstream troughing may
undergo further amplification as a surface cold intrusion progresses south/southeastward through the Gulf Basin. However, the primary
embedded short wave perturbation is forecast to rapidly pivot east
and northeast of the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley toward the
Canadian Maritimes and northwestern Atlantic Monday through Monday
night. While the center of an associated broad, slowly deepening
and occluding surface cyclone shifts east-northeast of Lake
Huron/Georgian Bay through southern Quebec, it appears a secondary
surface low may develop across northern New England into the lower
St. Lawrence Valley. In its wake, the trailing cold front is
forecast to rapidly advance east/southeast of the Appalachians, and
well offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard by 12Z Tuesday.

....Lower Great Lakes into New England...
NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that
lower/mid-tropospheric warming and moistening, preceding the
secondary surface frontal wave development, will contribute to weak
elevated destabilization across portions of eastern New York state
through New England during the day Monday. This may contribute to
deeper convective development embedded within an evolving broader
precipitation shield. The extent to which this could become capable
of producing lightning remains a bit unclear, but probabilities for
weak thunderstorms still seem best characterized as less than 10
percent.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley...
NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, and other model output,
suggest that widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible
along or just behind the cold front as it advances across Deep South
Texas late tonight. Timing of the frontal passage and associated
convection through the lower Rio Grande around Brownsville remains
uncertain, but low thunderstorm probabilities may linger an hour or
two beyond 12Z Monday.

..Kerr.. 12/28/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290534
SWODY2
SPC AC 290532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.

..Grams.. 12/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291645
SWODY2
SPC AC 291644

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
In the wake of multiple cold-frontal passages, dry and stable
conditions are expected to preclude thunderstorm development across
the CONUS through the period.

..Dean.. 12/29/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300543
SWODY2
SPC AC 300541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New
Year's Day along coastal southern California.

...Coastal southern CA...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will approach but remain offshore
of coastal southern CA through 12Z Thursday. The compact mid-level
cold core might reach the Channel Islands, with generally slight
cooling farther east. This may be sufficient for charge separation
near the end of the period, as low-topped convection is expected to
increase overnight ahead of the trough. Despite modest low-level
hodograph curvature, weak effective bulk shear amid a meager
buoyancy profile suggests convection should remain too
shallow/disorganized for an appreciable severe threat.

..Grams.. 12/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301725
SWODY2
SPC AC 301723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible during the early morning of New
Year's Day along coastal southern California.

...Coastal southern CA...
An initially slow-moving upper low is forecast to eject
northeastward as a shortwave trough and approach coastal southern CA
by the end of the period. The primary midlevel cold core is forecast
to still be offshore at the end of the period (12Z Thursday).
However, some moistening beneath modest cooling aloft could support
isolated thunderstorm potential late in the period across the
Channel Islands and eventually coastal areas of southern CA. Some
enlargement of low-level hodographs is expected as this system
approaches, but with scant buoyancy and only modest effective shear,
organized severe potential appears low.

..Dean.. 12/30/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310655
SWODY2
SPC AC 310653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL
SOUTHERN CA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a
portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning.

...CA and the Southwest...
Guidance continues a decidedly northward trend to the evolution of
the compact shortwave trough, currently west of southern CA. Latest
indications are for this wave to reach the San Joaquin Valley around
midday Thursday, before slightly dampening over the southern Great
Basin. Thunderstorm potential appears greatest on Thursday morning
with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across southern
CA. Despite the early time of day, activity along the coast should
be surface-based along the periphery of low 60s dew points. Buoyancy/instability will remain meager, given the expected
northerly track of the wave and attendant mesoscale cold core
displaced from the richer moisture plume. But guidance is consistent
with the depiction of 40-50 kt 700-mb flow across the Transverse
Ranges through midday. With some low-level hodograph curvature and
several CAMs suggestive of at least one rotating cell in the LA
Basin vicinity, have opted to include a small level 1-MRGL risk for
wind and tornado.

Confidence remains low in the degree of thunderstorm potential
farther north and east. Lower-level moisture east of CA should be
greater across AZ, but this may remain displaced too far south of
the latest consensus for the mid-level cold core. It is plausible
that much of the convection from the Central Valley to AZ will
remain low-topped, with thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent
or less.

..Grams.. 12/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 311726
SWODY2
SPC AC 311724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
SOUTHERN CA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a
portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning.

...Southern CA...
A compact midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts
of southern CA toward the San Joaquin Valley through the day, before
dampening somewhat as it approaches the Great Basin during the
evening. The strongest DCVA and cooling aloft will generally be
displaced north of the most favorable low-level moisture, but some
thunderstorm potential will continue to accompany this system for at
least the first part of the day.

The greatest relative potential for surface-based convection appears
to be across immediate coastal areas of southern CA and adjacent
offshore regions, where surface dewpoints are forecast to increase
into the low 60s F. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly
strong, but 30-40 kt of 700 mb flow and modest enlargement of
low-level hodographs could support potential for weakly rotating
storms. While confidence in sufficiently robust convection is not
high, locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out with any stronger cells near the coast, primarily during the
morning.

..Dean.. 12/31/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010643
SWODY2
SPC AC 010642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.

...Central Gulf Coast and the Deep South...
A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should move across the Mid-South
to the southern Appalachians. An upstream shortwave trough will
progress from the Four Corners east-southeast across north TX. The
00Z NAM is an outlier with its phasing of these features, while
other guidance maintains separate impulses. Weak elevated MUCAPE is
anticipated with the lead impulse, along the northern periphery of
lower-level moisture return emanating northeast of the northwest
Gulf. Sufficient saturation/ascent should occur for increasing
convection on Friday evening across parts of the interior Deep South
to TN Valley. The southern portion of this activity may yield
isolated thunder coverage on Friday night.

Farther south, the outlier NAM appears aggressive with early morning
Saturday convective development near the central Gulf Coast, amid
strong deep-layer shear and modest near-surface buoyancy. However,
most other parametrized guidance and especially CAMs struggle to
generate deep convection through 12Z Saturday given weak lapse rates
and rather dry mid-levels. Unconditional probabilities for hazard
still appear to be below level-1 MRGL risk thresholds.

...Northern CA and southwest OR...
A deep mid/upper trough will gradually approach the Pacific Coast
through early Saturday, as an intense jet spreads into northern CA.
Despite an initially pronounced low-level warm conveyor, instability
is expected to remain negligible until Friday night. Gradual
steepening of mid-level lapse rates should occur along coastal areas
of northern CA and southwest OR, and potentially reach the
Sacramento Valley prior to 12Z. This may support very isolated
thunderstorm development overnight to early Saturday morning. Any lightning-producing convection could be coincident with strong
gradient winds, but the convective contribution to damaging-wind
potential will likely be limited by the expected scant buoyancy.

..Grams.. 01/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011714
SWODY2
SPC AC 011712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the
south-central Plains toward the TN Valley through the period, while
a somewhat more vigorous shortwave progresses east-southeastward
from the Four Corners region toward the lower MS Valley. The
combination of these features will result in an elongated surface
low that will extend from northern MS/AL toward southern LA by
Friday evening.

Returning low-level moisture will result in a somewhat conditionally
favorable environment Friday afternoon from parts of LA into
southern MS, as MLCAPE increases to around 500 J/kg amid
strengthening deep-layer shear. However, poor midlevel lapse rates
and generally weak ascent across the warm sector may tend to limit surface-based storm potential, with most guidance showing no diurnal development across this area. A strengthening low-level jet will aid
in the development of elevated convection Friday evening, mainly
across parts of central/northern MS/AL/GA. Weak buoyancy should tend
to limit the organized severe threat with any elevated storms.
Convection may also tend to increase along the immediate central
Gulf Coast near the end of the period, but warm midlevel
temperatures are expected to limit storm depth and intensity in this
area through 12Z Saturday morning.

...Northern CA into southwest OR...
A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded deep-layer cyclone will
gradually approach the central and northern Pacific Coast through
the period. Within the large-scale trough, an embedded vorticity
maximum is forecast to approach northern CA and southwest OR by mid
to late evening. Colder temperatures aloft and some steepening of
midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region as this vorticity
maximum moves through, which will increase the threat for sporadic
lightning flashes with any stronger convective elements.

Most CAM guidance depicts development of a narrow rain band in
association with the lead vorticity maximum, which moves over
immediate coastal regions between 03-06Z. This band may be
coincident with gusty/locally damaging winds, given the
strengthening background wind field (50+ kt at 850 mb). However,
with stronger cooling aloft and steepening of low-level lapse rates
generally only expected in the wake of this band, the extent to
which any deeper convective processes contribute to wind-damage
potential is uncertain and may remain limited.

..Dean.. 01/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050635
SWODY2
SPC AC 050634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions may remain too dry/stable for lightning-producing
convection across the CONUS through the period. A couple areas of
very limited potential remain evident. One across the southern Great
Lakes where minimal elevated buoyancy might support a brief
thunderstorm on Tuesday morning within a mixed-phase precipitation
swath attendant to a low-amplitude shortwave impulse. Another area
will be over northwest WA where scant buoyancy may develop towards
12Z Wednesday. Large-scale ascent with an upstream shortwave trough
should strengthen mainly later Wednesday morning, suggesting that
thunder probabilities for D2 appear to be below 10 percent.

..Grams.. 01/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051717
SWODY2
SPC AC 051715

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm potential remains limited across the country for
tomorrow and tomorrow night. Latest guidance continues to show dry
and/or stable conditions across the CONUS, which will limit the
potential for lightning production. Isolated lightning strikes
appear possible along/just off the WA coast between 9-12 UTC
Wednesday as an upper low approaches the coast. However, model
consensus is limited regarding the degree of inland buoyancy, so
confidence remains low in thunderstorm potential. A sporadic
lightning flash or two may also be possible across the lower Great
Lakes within a weak warm advection regime, but as with the WA coast,
confidence in any appreciable buoyancy remains too limited for 10%
thunderstorm coverage.

..Moore.. 01/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060658
SWODY2
SPC AC 060656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WEST AND NORTH TX INTO OK...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night from
west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.

...Southern Plains...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near Baja California is
forecast to eject east-northeastward and take on a negative tilt as
it approaches the Southern Plains Wednesday night. Previously slower
guidance (such as the EC-AIFS and GFS) has trended toward a somewhat
faster solution with this system. A surface low is forecast to
deepen over the south-central High Plains during the evening.
Low-level moisture will spread northward, with 60s F dewpoints
potentially reaching the Red River region prior to the end of the
period.

As ascent attendant to the shortwave trough impinges upon the
increasing low-level moisture, thunderstorm development is expected
Wednesday night across parts of west/north TX into OK, which may
spread toward the Ozark Plateau prior to 12Z Thursday.
Initial MUCAPE of near/above 500 J/kg and increasing deep-layer
shear could support some storm organization.

There may be a brief window for near-surface-based development
near/after 03Z across parts of west-central TX, but the bulk of
convection will likely be somewhat elevated. The buoyancy profile
will be hampered by poor mid/upper-level lapse rates, and lingering near-surface stability will likely persist across most of the warm
sector, resulting in uncertainty regarding severe potential with any
organized cells/clusters. However, given the expectation for
strongly forced convection Wednesday night within a favorably
sheared environment, a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Isolated strong/damaging gusts will be possible, and hail cannot be ruled out
with initial development, before buoyancy becomes increasingly
depleted with time. Given the strength of low-level shear/SRH, the
potential for near-surface-based development will continue to be
monitored regarding any tornado threat.

...Pacific Northwest coast...
Low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be
possible through at least the morning and afternoon near the Pacific
Northwest coast, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across
the region. Cold temperatures aloft (less than -30C at 500 mb) will
support meager buoyancy (with MUCAPE generally 100-200 J/kg),
primarily near and in the wake of a cold front. Relatively strong
low-level flow could support gusty winds with this convection,
though the very weak buoyancy is expected to limit organized severe
potential.

..Dean.. 01/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061717
SWODY2
SPC AC 061716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night into
Thursday morning from west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.

...Southern Plains...
A low-latitude shortwave trough will advance east-northeastward
across the Southwest through the day, reaching the southern High
Plains late in the period. Related lee cyclogenesis will favor a
strengthening nocturnal low-level jet and the northward return of
weakly modified Gulf moisture into a cool/statically stable boundary
layer over the southern Plains overnight. This, combined with
modestly steepened midlevel lapse rates preceding the trough, will
yield around 500 J/kg MUCAPE across the developing warm sector.

A band of warm-advection-driven showers and widely scattered
thunderstorms will develop from west-central TX into OK during the
06-12Z time frame. Despite limited buoyancy, 50-60 kt of effective
shear may promote a couple loosely organized cells and small line
segments, though most of this activity is expected to remain
slightly elevated. Marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts
will be possible with the more organized storms that evolve.

...Pacific Northwest...
In the left-exit region of a robust midlevel jet impinging on the
Pacific Northwest Coast, a strongly forced, low-topped convective
band is expected along a cold front overspreading the region. While
locally strong gusts will be possible, the combination of weak
buoyancy and lack of stronger low-level flow limits confidence in
severe-gust potential.

..Weinman.. 01/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070702
SWODY2
SPC AC 070700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into parts of the ArkLaTex and lower/mid MS
Valley...
A negative-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough and associated
surface low will move quickly northeastward from the southern High
Plains towards the Great Lakes on Thursday. This shortwave will
impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and MUCAPE of near/above
500 J/kg from late D1/Wednesday into early D2/Thursday morning,
resulting in thunderstorm development. Deep-layer shear will be
quite favorable, and the strongest morning storms may be capable of
producing localized severe gusts and perhaps some hail. The Marginal
Risk area has been expanded westward across OK and southern KS, with
recent guidance indicating a slightly slower shortwave timing. Most
guidance suggests morning convection may remain slightly elevated,
but low tornado probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence
increases in surface-based storm development from central OK into
southeast KS.

With time, the morning storms will encounter decreasing buoyancy,
but if organized convection can be sustained, then some threat for
localized damaging wind could spread toward the mid MS Valley and
possibly a larger portion of the Midwest and lower OH Valley, in
conjunction with the ejecting shortwave. The northeast extent of
severe potential remains uncertain, with the shortwave expected to
eventually outpace returning low-level moisture.

Farther south, severe potential becomes more conditional from parts
of the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South, with stronger ascent expected to
remain north of this region. While buoyancy will remain weak,
low-level and deep-layer shear will be strong. Guidance remains
inconsistent regarding the development of deep convection in this
region, with the ECMWF and RRFS being somewhat more aggressive,
while other guidance is generally more muted. If robust convection
can develop within this environment, then some threat for locally
damaging wind and possibly a tornado could evolve from late
afternoon into part of Thursday night.

...Arizona...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day
across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail
could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is
currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe
threat.

..Dean.. 01/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071724
SWODY2
SPC AC 071723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from Oklahoma into
parts of the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains into the Lower/Mid MS Valley...
Within a belt of broad/enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow, a
negative-tilt shortwave trough and accompanying surface low will
track northeastward from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes
through the period.

Strongly forced thunderstorms will be ongoing/spreading
east-northeastward across OK at the start of the period. While poor
midlevel lapse rates and only partially modified Gulf moisture will
limit buoyancy for these storms, 50-60 kt of effective shear will
support a few organized clusters/line segments and perhaps transient
supercell structures. Isolated large hail will be the primary
concern, though locally damaging gusts and a brief tornado will be
possible with any surface-based storms that can evolve.

This activity will spread/develop northeastward into the Ozarks and
eventually the Lower OH Valley vicinity through the
afternoon/evening, in tandem with the midlevel trough and surface
low. Here, boundary-layer moisture and related buoyancy will become
more limited with northward extent, though strengthening deep-layer
flow/shear (to include a 50-kt low-level jet) will continue to
support a risk of severe storms capable of damaging winds and
possibly a brief tornado. Multiple rounds of storms will be possible
through this corridor into the overnight hours ahead of an
approaching front. Farther southeast, recent high-resolution
guidance depicts a band of storms developing within broad/moist
confluent low-level flow over the Lower MS Valley late in the
period. While these storms will be on the eastern edge of the warm
sector, strong low/deep-layer shear will yield a conditional severe
risk.

...Arizona...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to increase through the day
across parts of AZ, as a midlevel shortwave trough moves
east-southeastward across the region. Gusty winds and/or small hail
could occur with the strongest convection, though buoyancy is
currently expected to remain too meager for an organized severe
threat.

..Weinman.. 01/07/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080701
SWODY2
SPC AC 080659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF LA/MS
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from Louisiana into
parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.

...East TX into the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South...
In the wake of a departing mid/upper shortwave trough and surface
low, a cold front is forecast to slow down by afternoon and perhaps
become nearly stationary from near the ArkLaTex region to the
Mid-South. As an upstream mid/upper trough approaches from the west, cyclogenesis is expected along this front, with the surface low
expected to move east-northeastward toward the TN Valley by Saturday
morning.

Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place within the warm
sector of this cyclone, and low-level and deep-layer shear will
increase with time as the frontal wave develops. However, guidance
continues to vary somewhat regarding the extent of phasing between
the approaching shortwave trough across the southern Plains and a
strong shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian
Prairies. There are also varying solutions regarding the coverage of
early-day convection, and the extent to which it hampers warm-sector destabilization as low-level and deep-layer shear strengthens.

Early-day storms within the modest warm-advection regime from east
TX into the lower MS Valley could pose a low-probability threat of
all severe hazards. An increase in the severe potential could evolve
from late afternoon into the evening, as low-level and deep-layer
shear begin to strengthen in response to the approaching trough.
Organized clusters and a few supercells will be possible, with an
attendant damaging-wind and tornado threat that may continue into
late Friday night. However, if early-day convection becomes
widespread with increasingly prominent outflow (as indicated by some
00Z HREF members), the magnitude and north/east extent of the
organized severe threat may be relatively limited. The greatest
relative confidence in an organized severe threat is currently
across parts of LA into central/southern MS, with a more conditional
threat to the north and east of this area.

..Dean.. 01/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081729
SWODY2
SPC AC 081728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are forecast on Friday from the central Gulf
Coast into parts of the lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio
Valleys.

...East TX into the Lower MS/TN/OH Valleys...
At the start of the period, a midlevel shortwave trough and
accompanying surface cyclone will be departing the Great Lakes
region, while a southwestward-extending cold front moves eastward
across the OH and TN Valleys -- stalling with southward extent
across the lower MS Valley and western Gulf Coast. Bands of
thunderstorms will be ongoing within a plume of low-level warm
advection along/ahead of the front -- within an environment
characterized by strong deep-layer flow/shear and limited buoyancy.
Given the expected linear nature of these storms amid strong
low-level flow, damaging gusts will be the primary concern before
this activity outpaces the warm sector with eastward extent.

Farther south and west, a broad midlevel trough will move eastward
across the southern Plains toward the MS Valley through the period.
Guidance has trended generally slower with this feature in recent
runs, with only modest midlevel height falls impinging on the
frontal zone and warm sector during the peak convective period. As a
result, the overall low-level mass response appears to be somewhat
muted compared to earlier runs, with initial frontal-wave
development farther south near LA.

Nevertheless, strengthening low-level warm advection east of the
developing frontal wave/surface cyclone will yield an uptick in
thunderstorm coverage and intensity within confluence bands from the
central Gulf Coast northward into the lower MS and TN Valleys during
the afternoon into the evening/overnight hours. Here, upper 60s to
near 70 dewpoints (already in place along the central Gulf Coast)
will spread northward and destabilize the inland air mass. Despite
modest buoyancy, this rich moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear
(with increasing low-level hodograph size/curvature) will favor a
mix of semi-discrete supercells and clusters -- posing a risk of
damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. Depending on the strength of
the low-level jet/mass response, a corridor of higher severe
potential will be possible from parts of LA into southern/central
MS.

Additional thunderstorm development/intensification is possible in
east TX along/ahead of the stalling front during the afternoon,
where sufficient buoyancy and a long/straight hodograph will support
a couple organized storms and attendant risk of damaging winds and
severe hail.

..Weinman.. 01/08/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090642
SWODY2
SPC AC 090640

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

...Southeast/Carolinas/Southern Virginia...
At the start of the period, a large-scale upper-level trough will be
located from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest, with an
associated 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet over the mid-Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valleys. The southern edge of the stronger mid-level flow
will be over the Southeast, where a moist airmass will be in place
Saturday morning. Within this airmass, low-level convergence ahead
of a cold front will contribute to the development of scattered to
numerous thunderstorms from the lower Mississippi Valley
northeastward into the southern Appalachians. Weak instability along
the moist axis along with moderate deep-layer shear, will likely be
sufficient for an isolated severe threat early in the day. This
threat is expected to develop into parts of the Carolinas and
southern Virginia by midday, as a low-level jet translates
northeastward. A brief tornado could occur near the low-level jet.
However, the primary threat should be wind damage with the stronger
short line segments. Lapse rates are forecast to remain poor, which
should keep any severe threat marginal.

..Broyles.. 01/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091730
SWODY2
SPC AC 091728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are forecast on Saturday across the
central Gulf Coast and Southeast.

...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Along and south of an outflow-reinforced cold front extending across
central AL into southern MS, scattered thunderstorms will be ongoing
across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast at the start of the
period. These storms will generally be focused along a 30-40-kt
southwesterly low-level jet and ahead of a northeastward-moving
frontal wave.

Despite modest buoyancy, ample boundary-layer moisture (middle/upper
60s dewpoints) and around 50 kt of effective shear will continue to
promote organized storm clusters, to include the potential for a
couple supercells. Damaging winds will be a concern, though enlarged clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (upwards of 200-250 m2/s2
effective SRH) within the moist axis will yield some risk for a
couple tornadoes as well. The tornado risk will be largely dependent
on the degree of convective overturning in the warm sector. The
window of greatest severe risk appears to be from 12Z-18Z -- before
low-level flow veers ahead of the approaching front and departing
frontal wave. A SLGT risk was added for this corridor of heightened
severe potential.

Thunderstorms will generally spread northeastward across GA into the
Carolinas in tandem with the northeastward-advancing low-level jet
and frontal wave, where they will eventually outpace the
surface-based warm sector during the afternoon.

..Weinman.. 01/09/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100645
SWODY2
SPC AC 100643

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough over the mid Mississippi Valley will move to
the Atlantic Seaboard on Sunday, as northwesterly mid-level flow
becomes established over much of the central and eastern part of the
U.S. At the surface, an area of high pressure will remain over the south-central and southeastern U.S. The pattern will keep a dry and
cool airmass in place over most of the continental U.S., making
thunderstorm development unlikely in the U.S. Sunday and Sunday
night.

..Broyles.. 01/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101707
SWODY2
SPC AC 101705

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid/upper trough and attendant deep-layer cyclone will move
across the eastern CONUS during the day on Sunday, and then over the
Canadian Maritimes and off of the Atlantic Coast by Sunday night.
The primary cold front will move through coastal NC and the FL
Peninsula through the day. While weak buoyancy may be in place at
the start of the period near the NC Outer Banks and portions of the
FL Peninsula, weak ascent and lapse rates are expected to limit
thunderstorm potential.

An embedded midlevel shortwave trough and secondary cold front will
move through parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Mid
Atlantic through the day. In association with these features,
shallow convection is expected to develop across parts of the Ohio
Valley and Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. Thunderstorm
potential appears generally limited by very meager to negligible
buoyancy, though gusty winds and perhaps very sporadic and isolated
lightning flashes could accompany these shallow convective bands.

..Dean.. 01/10/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110659
SWODY2
SPC AC 110658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Monday and Monday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow will be in place from the northern
Rockies southeastward to the Appalachians on Monday, as a shortwave
trough moves southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, high pressure will remain over the south-central and
southeastern U.S. keeping dry and cool conditions in place over much
of the nation. This will be unfavorable for thunderstorm development
across the continental U.S. Monday and Monday night.

..Broyles.. 01/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111650
SWODY2
SPC AC 111648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper shortwave trough and attendant strong jet will move
southeastward from the Canadian Prairies towards the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest through the period. This system will be
accompanied by cooling aloft and steepening midlevel lapse rates,
but available moisture appears insufficient for appreciable
buoyancy, resulting in limited thunderstorm potential.

An upper low is forecast to move across northern Mexico and approach
southwest TX. Limited moisture is expected to result in negligible
to only very weak elevated buoyancy, and thunderstorm potential
appears low at this time.

Some low-level moistening and weak destabilization will be possible
across far south FL and the Keys, but poor lapse rates and weak
forcing are expected to hamper development of deep convection.

..Dean.. 01/11/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120659
SWODY2
SPC AC 120657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Tuesday or
Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
Cyclonic northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across much
of the central and eastern U.S. on Tuesday, as an embedded shortwave
trough digs southeastward into the Upper Midwest. A relatively cool
and dry airmass will be in place over most of the nation. The only
exception will be in south Florida, where surface dewpoints are
forecast to be in the lower to mid 60s F. As temperatures warm
during the day, isolated non-severe thunderstorms will be possible
over the Florida Keys and in the vicinity of Miami. Elsewhere across
the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected to develop
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/12/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121653
SWODY2
SPC AC 121651

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify across the
central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday. Within the large-scale trough,
multiple embedded shortwaves will move across parts of the northern
Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes, while a weak upper low initially
over southwest TX will eject eastward as a shortwave trough. A
surface low is forecast to move across parts of Ontario and southern
Quebec. A weak cold front will move across parts of the central
Plains into the Ohio Valley, while a stronger reinforcing front will
move across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
late in the period.

Moisture return within the warm sector of the primary cyclone is
expected to remain too meager for any appreciable destabilization
and thunderstorm threat. One area where thunderstorm development
cannot be ruled out is across far southeast FL and the Keys, where
some low-level moistening beneath cooling midlevel temperatures may
support MUCAPE of around 500-1000 J/kg. Generally weak large-scale
ascent and a warm layer around 700 mb are expected to limit
thunderstorm coverage, but a storm or two may develop, especially
near or just offshore of the southeast FL coast, within a low-level
convergence zone.

..Dean.. 01/12/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130658
SWODY2
SPC AC 130657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the
east-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front moves quickly across
the southeastern U.S. In its wake, a large area of high pressure
will settle in across the central states. This will reinforce dry
and cool conditions over much of the nation. In response,
thunderstorms will be unlikely over the continental U.S. Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/13/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131718
SWODY2
SPC AC 131716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the
Keys on Wednesday.

...Southeast FL and the Keys...
Within the base of an amplified large-scale trough encompassing the
eastern half of the CONUS, a midlevel shortwave trough will advance
eastward across the Gulf of America toward the FL Peninsula. In
response, an initially stalled front will move eastward across
Southeast FL and the Keys during the afternoon. Most guidance (with
the exception of the RAP) depicts marginally sufficient buoyancy for
isolated thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front during the
day. A secondary/stronger cold front will approach western FL late
in the period, though thunderstorms are not currently expected owing
to limited buoyancy.

..Weinman.. 01/13/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140506
SWODY2
SPC AC 140504

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1104 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast.

...South Florida...

Pronounced upper trough will dominate the eastern CONUS during the
upcoming day2 period. Latest model guidance suggests a strong
surface front will have advanced across all but the southern most
part of the FL Peninsula by 15/12z, then quickly surge offshore
around 18z. At this time it appears the prospect for deep
convection, capable of generating lightning, will be minimal as poor
lapse rates and westerly flow ahead of the front do not look
favorable for thunderstorms. Forecast soundings depict weakly
buoyant profiles that rapidly stabilize by mid morning across the
southern Peninsula. Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10
percent.

..Darrow.. 01/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141715
SWODY2
SPC AC 141713

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday.

...Far Southern Florida and the Keys...
Within the base of a highly amplified trough over the eastern CONUS,
an embedded shortwave trough will advance eastward across the
central Gulf Coast and northern FL Peninsula early in the period.
The tail end of a related cold front will move southeastward across
southern FL and the Keys during the morning and afternoon hours --
where scattered showers/shallow convection is expected. However,
poor lapse rates/limited buoyancy along/ahead of the front should
generally limit thunderstorm potential.

..Weinman.. 01/14/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150550
SWODY2
SPC AC 150548

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A series of disturbances will move cyclonically through a longwave
mid-level trough over eastern North America. Farther west, a
mid-level anticyclone will be stationary to the west of the Pacific
Northwest coast. A surface ridge will extend southward along the
spine of the Rockies/High Plains and cool/stable conditions will
prove hostile for thunderstorm development across the Lower 48
states on Friday.

..Smith.. 01/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151701
SWODY2
SPC AC 151659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States
on Friday.

...Discussion...
Embedded within a large-scale trough encompassing the eastern
two-thirds of the CONUS, a shortwave trough will overspread the
mid-Mississippi Valley into the lower Great Lakes during the
afternoon. Strengthening large-scale ascent and steepening of
deep-layer lapse rates may yield weak and shallow buoyancy. However, thermodynamic profiles appear insufficient to support deep
convection or lightning at this time.

..Weinman.. 01/15/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160601
SWODY2
SPC AC 160600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...

A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the
southern Rockies will pivot east on Saturday, becoming positioned
from the Great Lakes to the western Gulf by Sunday morning. At the
surface, a cold front will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest
and southern Plains. Gulf moisture will remain cut-off, precluding
thunderstorm activity for most of the CONUS. With the approach of
the upper trough and stronger height falls, low pressure may develop
near the FL Straits and toward the Bahamas late in the period.
Sufficient boundary layer moisture will exist to support weak
buoyancy amid increasing southwesterly flow above 700 mb. This could
foster a couple of thunderstorms approaching the upper FL Keys to
the southeast coastal FL Peninsula after 06z, though the bulk of any thunderstorm activity should mainly remain offshore. Severe storms
are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161701
SWODY2
SPC AC 161700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.

...Discussion...
A midlevel shortwave trough initially over the central High Plains
will move into the base of a larger-scale trough encompassing the
eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. In response, a weak surface front
and related moisture will move northward into southeastern FL during
the overnight and early morning hours. While buoyancy will be
limited (especially over land areas), isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across the Upper Keys and far southeastern FL. Most
guidance depicts the bulk of this activity remaining offshore, and
eventual removal of the TSTM area may be warranted if this trend
continues.

..Weinman.. 01/16/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 170631
SWODY2
SPC AC 170630

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will move across the eastern U.S., moving offshore
the Atlantic coast Sunday night. Meanwhile, broad upper troughing
will be maintained across much of the CONUS, reinforced by shortwave
impulses over the northern Rockies and Upper Midwest. At the
surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula
through the afternoon, while a second cold front moves southeast
across parts of the Midwest and Plains overnight.

A dearth of boundary layer moisture and a cold/stable airmass will
preclude thunderstorm activity across most of the CONUS. The
exception may be across portions of the southeast FL Peninsula and
the Keys. Modest boundary layer moisture will support weak buoyancy
near the coast and just offshore as the upper trough and surface
front provide forcing for ascent. A few lightning flashes are
possible, but the bulk of thunderstorm activity is expected to
remain offshore where better instability will support deeper
updrafts.

..Leitman.. 01/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 171705
SWODY2
SPC AC 171703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1103 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorms are not expected for much of the country on Sunday
with the exception of the southern FL coast. A cold continental air
mass is noted in mid-morning surface observations surging southward
across the Plains in tandem with an upper wave/jet. These features
will shift southeastward into the northeastern Gulf by 12z Sunday,
and will likely support an uptick in anafrontal stratiform
precipitation across the Southeast states through the day. However,
negligible buoyancy is expected owing to poor lapse rates and modest
low-level moisture, which should preclude thunderstorm development.
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible along and just off the
southern FL Atlantic coast Sunday afternoon within a weak warm
advection regime ahead of the primary cold front. Offshore storm
motions should further limit the duration of convection over land.

..Moore.. 01/17/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 180531
SWODY2
SPC AC 180529

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

Broad upper troughing and expansive surface high pressure will
envelop much of the CONUS on Monday. Continental low-level
trajectories and cold temperatures will result in a dry and stable
boundary layer, precluding thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 01/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 181659
SWODY2
SPC AC 181657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1057 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.

...Discussion...
Surface high pressure will dominate the Northwest to South-Central
States on Monday, supporting cold/continental low-level trajectories
across much of the CONUS. Conditions will be too stable/dry for lightning-producing convection through the period.

..Grams.. 01/18/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 190605
SWODY2
SPC AC 190604

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...

The next in a series of upper shortwave troughs will migrate from
the Rockies toward the Upper Midwest and Plains on Tuesday. Surface cyclogenesis will occur across the northern and central High Plains
as a result. This area of low pressure will lift northeast overnight
toward the Great Lakes. Southerly surface winds will develop in
response to these features across the western Gulf Basin, allowing
for meager airmass modification and northward transport of minor
boundary layer moisture across portions of South TX and the coastal
plain vicinity by early Wednesday. However, poor instability and
weak forcing for ascent will preclude thunderstorm potential.
Elsewhere, a cold, dry, and stable airmass will preclude
thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 01/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 191707
SWODY2
SPC AC 191706

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through
Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent.

...Discussion...
Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America
(across and east of the Rockies). While little change in amplitude
is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an
initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening. As a
developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of
this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it
appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical
eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central
Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex...
It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late
Tuesday through Tuesday night. This is likely to mainly emanate
from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a
modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels. While
forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing
layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to
negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection
capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas
coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 01/19/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 200612
SWODY2
SPC AC 200610

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorm are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night
across portions of southeast Texas and Louisiana.

...Synopsis...

Broad upper troughing will envelop much of the CONUS on Wednesday.
An upper shortwave trough embedded within the large-scale trough
will pivot east across the south-central to southeast states on
Wednesday into early Thursday. As this occurs, some minor modified
Gulf moisture will impinge on southeast TX into LA/MS ahead of a
southward sagging cold front. This will support minor
destabilization (MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg) from southeast TX into
LA. Cool temperatures aloft and modest large-scale ascent may be
sufficient for isolated weak thunderstorm activity late Wednesday
afternoon into the nighttime hours. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 201646
SWODY2
SPC AC 201645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday
into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the
lower Mississippi Valley.

...Discussion...
While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of
the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will
undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate
that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained
across much of interior and eastern North America. It appears that
this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from
the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western
periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border
area. This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis
across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable
reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in
the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf
Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday

At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of
the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of
westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes
of the eastern Pacific. Within this regime, a notable developing
mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern
California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave
ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. While forecast
soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading
band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture
return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and
relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to
remain offshore through this period. This will minimize the risk
for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential
for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of
coastal areas.

Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to
continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. Although, in
lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf
boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath
the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to
somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated
destabilization. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this
may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing
lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas
east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by
forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave
perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow.

..Kerr.. 01/20/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 210645
SWODY2
SPC AC 210644

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

Broad upper troughing will persist across most of the CONUS on
Thursday. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across portions of south/southeast TX into the central Gulf Coast and central/southern
FL on the southern periphery of strengthening surface high pressure
over the Plains and Midwest. Some very modest instability could
develop over the southeast FL Peninsula. However, nebulous
large-scale ascent and modest lapse rates will limit thunderstorm
potential inland. A couple of thunderstorms are possible offshore,
but coverage of lightning flashes near the coast appears limited,
precluding 10 percent general thunder delineation. Elsewhere, cold
and/or stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 01/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 211704
SWODY2
SPC AC 211702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the risk for a few weak thunderstorms near southeastern
Florida coastal areas, potential for thunderstorm development
appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
A vigorous short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic
latitudes is forecast to dig southeast of the international border,
across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, and
contribute to the maintenance of larger-scale mid-level troughing
across the northern U.S. Great Plains through northern and middle
Atlantic Seaboard. Beneath an increasingly confluent regime in its
wake, models continue to indicate that a rather prominent, cold
surface ridge will build southeastward along an axis across the
middle/lower Missouri Valley into lower Ohio Valley by late Thursday
night.

It appears that a preceding surface frontal zone will stall and
perhaps strengthen across the Carolinas through northern portions of
the Gulf Coast states into southern Great Plains. Another is
expected to slowly weaken across the Florida Peninsula and northern
Gulf Basin, as much of the southern tier of the U.S. continues to
come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the
mid- to subtropical eastern Pacific.

Downstream of fairly sharp building mid-level ridging across the
eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models have come in better agreement
concerning a digging mid-level trough and embedded low offshore of
the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It is becoming
more certain that the cyclonic circulation and colder temperatures
associated with an elongating mid-level cold core will generally
remain offshore of the southern California, before turning inland
across northern Baja after 12Z Friday.

...Southern California...
Models continue to indicate coldest offshore mid-level temperatures
at a somewhat modest -22 to -24C around 500 mb. However, based on
the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, weak
destabilization supportive of short-lived weak thunderstorm
development may not be entirely out of the question near coastal
areas, particularly where forcing for ascent is aided by orography
near the Transverse and perhaps Peninsular Ranges. Certainty does
not yet appear high enough for the minimum 10 percent threshold, but
this will continue to be monitored.

...Gulf Coast States...
Given the general tendency for warming mid-levels, and the lack of
both more substantive further low-level moistening off a slowly
modifying Gulf boundary layer and mid/upper support for ascent, the
risk for thunderstorm activity still appears minimal Thursday
through Thursday night. The primary exception still appears near
southeastern Florida coastal areas, in response to increasing
boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, near developing
surface troughing and the remnant surface front, perhaps aided by
forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical
westerlies.

..Kerr.. 01/21/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 220606
SWODY2
SPC AC 220605

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday afternoon
into Friday night across parts of central Texas.

...Synopsis...

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough off the southern
CA/northern Baja coasts Friday morning will develop east toward
northwest Mexico and lower CO Valley by Saturday morning. As this
occurs, increasing midlevel moisture will spread northeast across
the southern Plains as an arctic cold front dives southward across
OK/TX. As forcing for ascent increases Friday afternoon into the
overnight hours, mainly wintry precipitation is expected across OK
and the northern half of TX. Near and to the south of the arctic
cold front, sufficient low-level moisture will be in place to
support modest instability, especially as midlevel temperatures
cool. This could result in isolated thunderstorms near the
southward-surging cold front, or within the transition zone just to
the cool side of the boundary where sleet and freezing rain are
possible.

..Leitman.. 01/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 221711
SWODY2
SPC AC 221709

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible Friday into
Friday night in a corridor across the Texas Big Bend into central
Texas.

...Discussion...
A confluent mid-level regime will generally be maintained
across and east of the Rockies through this period, downstream of
amplified split flow across the central/eastern Pacific into far
western North America. Although models continue to indicate that
peak surface pressures within the center of initially prominent,
cold surface ridging will begin to fall while it slowly shifts east
of the Missouri Valley, appreciable modification of the Arctic air
will be slow, and it is likely to continue surging southward across
the remainder of the southern Great Plains, through much of south
central and southwestern Texas by late Friday night.

The leading edge of this air mass is also forecast to advance
further offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, but slower
southward through the eastern Gulf Coast states and lower
Mississippi Valley. Models indicate that this will occur beneath a
broad building mid-level ridge east of the Rio Grande Valley into
the Southeast, downstream of digging mid-level troughing across the international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and
a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern
Pacific.

There is notable continuing spread concerning the eastward
acceleration of the southern perturbation, generally toward Baja,
Friday through Friday night. However, an increasingly moist and
strengthening downstream southerly return flow still appears
probable across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas
coastal areas, particularly during the latter half of the period.

...Southern Great Plains across/northeast of Red River Valley...
Forecast soundings and other model output continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric thermal and moisture advection may lead to
thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least very weak to weak
conditional instability in a sizable swath from the northern Mexican
Plateau across the southern Great Plains, including north and
northeast of the Red River Valley. However, particularly with north-northeastward extent, above the southward surging cold surface
air, these same soundings generally exhibit little in the way of
convective instability, with profiles tending to becoming saturated
while also warming aloft. So the extent of potential for convective development capable of producing lightning remains unclear Friday
through Friday night.

Modestly steeper mid-level lapse rates, and perhaps better potential
for weak thunderstorm activity, may remain confined to a corridor
across the Texas Big Bend into Edwards Plateau, and adjacent
portions of central Texas, where mid/upper support for convective
development may be aided by a short wave perturbation emanating from
the subtropical eastern Pacific.

..Kerr.. 01/22/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 230637
SWODY2
SPC AC 230636

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday
through Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify
significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates
behind a departing East Coast upper trough. Several short wave
perturbations (over the Southwest, northern Mexico, and southern
Canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level
troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains by late Saturday
night.

As upper troughing becomes established, a strong Arctic cold front
will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in
its wake. An extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant
latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern Mex and
the southern Gulf Coast. This will greatly limit inland moisture
return. Still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top
the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some
possibly with isolated lightning) over the Plains and south-central
US much of Saturday.

...South Texas Coast...
As the strong Arctic high pressure building over the southern Plains
forces the cold front to surge south, the Arctic air mass will
rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of Far South
TX. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will
allow for modest elevated destabilization. However, poor mid-level
lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) and the overnight arrival of the more
consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger
buoyancy. Thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the
immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe
risk appears quite limited.

..Lyons.. 01/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 231700
SWODY2
SPC AC 231659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western
North America, it still appears that several short wave troughs will
gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across
the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley through this
period. This is likely to include at least a couple of merging
perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the
international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great
Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific
before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the
southern Great Basin. Yet another impulse, emerging from the
southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and currently in the form of
a mid-level low as it digs toward Baja, is forecast to undergo
considerable deformation while being forced eastward, then
northeastward, across the northern Mexican Plateau into the southern
Great Plains by late Saturday night.

This is being preceded by the southeastward development of an
expansive cold surface ridge across much of the nation to the east
of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity. While
highest surface pressures centered across the Upper Midwest, Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes at the outset of the period are forecast to
continue to fall while shifting northeastward, it appears that the
residual Arctic air mass will impede significant inland surface
cyclogenesis.

Models do still indicate modest deepening of surface troughing in
one corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower
Ohio Valley (as well as in another near/offshore of the Carolina
coast) by late Saturday through Saturday night. Elevated moisture
return above the cold air to the north and northwest of this feature
appears likely to be accompanied by weak destabilization. However,
appreciable boundary-layer destabilization along the surface trough
axis, inland across southeastern Louisiana through southeastern/east
central Mississippi and adjacent western Alabama by 12Z Sunday,
appears unlikely. This is expected to minimize the risk for severe
weather.

...Southern Great Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley...
Convection allowing output and other guidance suggest that the most
substantive potential for thunderstorm development will largely
focus just to the cool side of the surface frontal zone, near/inland
of mid/upper Texas Gulf coastal areas through Louisiana and central/southwestern Mississippi Saturday through Saturday night..
Layers of developing weak conditional and convective instability
further aloft, and to the west through north, might become
supportive of convective development capable of producing lightning,
anywhere from the Texas South Plains and Big Country into the Mid
South. The extent of this potential remains a bit unclear due to
spread evident in the model output. However, further adjustments to
the 10 percent thunder line may be needed in subsequent outlooks for
this period.

..Kerr.. 01/23/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240701
SWODY2
SPC AC 240659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts
are expected to be the primary risk.

...Synopsis...
A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the
central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and
absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and
western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features
will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast,
northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by
Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly
cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface
low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly
flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of
a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air
damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band
of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms
through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon.

...Eastern Gulf Coast States...
Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern
LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong
isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely
support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of
East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With
time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified
warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the
moisture return through the day.

Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will
overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow
for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where
the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature
owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear
plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and
evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in
the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but
less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the
day as the main ascent lifts away to the north.

..Lyons.. 01/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 240715
SWODY2
SPC AC 240713

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST...

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts
are expected to be the primary risk.

...Synopsis...
A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the
central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and
absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and
western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features
will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast,
northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by
Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly
cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface
low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly
flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of
a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air
damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band
of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms
through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon.

...Eastern Gulf Coast States...
Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern
LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong
isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely
support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of
East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With
time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified
warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the
moisture return through the day.

Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will
overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow
for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where
the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature
owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear
plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and
evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in
the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but
less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the
day as the main ascent lifts away to the north.

..Lyons.. 01/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday)
morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the
Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A
constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a
progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over
southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon
hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting
in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a
severe threat along the Gulf Coast.

...Southeast Gulf Coast States...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z
Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a
linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the
development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned
somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning,
delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to
upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints.
Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km),
resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt
west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level
jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will
support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level
curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will
precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon
across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the
severe threat is expected to be greatest.

While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH
ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells
cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg
over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and
400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts
and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be
with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level
hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell
manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the
storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface
low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector.
With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from
central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane
through the day.

..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 250652
SWODY2
SPC AC 250650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper trough initially centered across the Plains and Great
Lakes will move off the East Coast by early Tuesday. A second upper
trough over the Canadian Prairies will subsequently move southward
and intensify over the northern US as ridging builds over the West.
At the surface, a strong cold front will sweep across the central
and southern FL Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a
thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the FL Atlantic
coast, deep-layer ascent will diminish as the primary ascent departs
with the offshore trough. This will limit thunderstorm development
inland as the expansive Arctic air mass forces the remaining
instability offshore.

..Lyons.. 01/25/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 251709
SWODY2
SPC AC 251708

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough in the Upper Midwest will shift eastward and
phase with the broader synoptic trough within the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Monday. This will push a reinforcing
surface high pressure system southward into the southern
Plains/lower Mississippi Valley regions. A cold front will also
continue to sag southward in the Florida Peninsula. South of the
front, modest buoyancy will remain. Even so, forcing for ascent will
become increasingly removed from the region and thunderstorm
development does not appear likely. Elsewhere, cold air/offshore
trajectories will similarly prohibit thunderstorms.

..Wendt.. 01/25/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 260650
SWODY2
SPC AC 260649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Eastern US troughing will continue Tuesday as multiple perturbations
move from the Rockies, Great Lakes and southern Canada toward the
Eastern US. At the same time, building ridging over the West will
favor northwesterly flow over much of the continent. This will
continually reinforce an expansive and cold Arctic high pressure
over the lower 48. This will negate meaningful inland moisture
return and thunderstorm potential for the next several days.

..Lyons.. 01/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261638
SWODY2
SPC AC 261636

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will move from the Rockies into the
central/southern Plains on Tuesday, bringing with it a reinforcing
shot of cold air to the middle part of the CONUS. At the surface,
high pressure will persist, resulting in continental trajectories
and maintaining a cold, dry, and stable airmass. As a result,
thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday.

..Leitman.. 01/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270625
SWODY2
SPC AC 270624

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing will continue over the eastern half of the CONUS
Wednesday. Mid-level ridging over the Rockies and Great Basin will
weaken slightly as a subtle mid-level perturbation moves inland from
the eastern Pacific. However, ridging will quickly rebound with the
amplified flow pattern favoring continued northwesterly flow aloft
over the continent. This will reinforce a cold dry and stable air
mass over much of the country. With no inland moisture
return/destabilization, thunderstorm potential is negligible.

..Lyons.. 01/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271643
SWODY2
SPC AC 271642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

A series of upper shortwave troughs within broader northwesterly
flow aloft will move across the Southeast and from the Rockies into
the Plains on Wednesday. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to develop
over the central High Plains in response to the ejecting upper
shortwave trough, with the low eventually migrating toward OK.
Southerly flow will increase across the southern Plains in response,
but surface high pressure over TX into the Southeast will prevent
modified Gulf moisture from returning northward. As a result, a
cold, dry, and stable airmass will remain over much of the CONUS,
precluding thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 01/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280656
SWODY2
SPC AC 280655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Broad-scale troughing over the eastern US is forecast to continue
Thursday as a shortwave perturbation moves out of the
Rockies/southern Plains into the Southeast. This will allow a weak
surface low to deepen over the lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast with a
cold front moving through the southern Plains. A second stronger
trough will move south out of Canada and deepen over the northern US
as western ridging continues to build. This will intensify surface
high pressure over the northern US as a reinforcing surge of Arctic
air moves south. This will keep inland moisture return and
thunderstorm chances minimal Thursday.

..Lyons.. 01/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281610
SWODY2
SPC AC 281608

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent for Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will build inland of the
Pacific coast, across the Sierra Nevada through the Canadian Rockies
and western Prairies, through this period. As this occurs, a series
of short wave perturbations emerging from evolving large-scale
upstream troughing are forecast to approach the British
Columbia/Pacific Northwest, within deep-layer southwesterly flow.
Continuing low/mid-level moisture return is likely to support
another round of precipitation with an inland migrating baroclinic
wave. However, beneath relatively warm mid/upper levels, saturating thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to become supportive of
thunderstorm development.

Meanwhile, an inland migrating short wave trough, preceding the
building ridge, is forecast to dig across the Great Basin and
Rockies, through the south central Great Plains and lower
Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, as a much more prominent
short wave trough pivoting southwest of Hudson Bay progresses across
the international border into the Upper Midwest. Beneath a
confluent regime in the wake of the latter perturbation, it appears
that another cold surface ridge will begin building across the
international border through the northern Great Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley. In advance of the perturbation emerging from
the West, a weak developing lee surface low may be maintained across
the Red River and lower Mississippi Valleys, while perhaps another
weak wave develops along a remnant preceding frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, models indicate that western Gulf boundary-layer modification and inland moisture return will be quite
limited, with little potential for destabilization supportive of an
appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 01/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290653
SWODY2
SPC AC 290652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale ridging will generally be maintained across the western
US as a broad, multi-component upper trough over the eastern half of
the US is forecast to rapidly consolidate and strengthen Friday into
early Saturday. A prominent shortwave impulse emanating from
southern Canada will merge with several smaller perturbations over
the southern MS Valley and Gulf Coast vicinity. The net result will
be a large and intense positive tilt upper trough over the
southeastern CONUS. This strong trough and 100+ kt mid-level flow
will aide the development of an initially weak surface cyclone over
the eastern Gulf and FL Peninsula. The low will rapidly deepen late
Friday into early Saturday off the Atlantic coast as a cold front
moves offshore. Ahead of the front, modest low-level
moistening/destabilization is possible over parts of southern FL and
the keys. However, this appears short lived and without more
substantial ascent/destabilization, thunderstorms are unlikely.

..Lyons.. 01/29/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291702
SWODY2
SPC AC 291700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday
night appear less than 10 percent.

...Discussion...
There appears little change from prior model runs concerning the
general mid/upper flow evolution through this period. A lower
latitude blocking regime may become a bit more prominent
near/offshore of southern California and the Baja California
Peninsula, with larger-scale ridging being maintained within the
primary belt of westerlies across the Pacific coast through Rockies.
This is forecast to include short wave ridging building along the
British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough
progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S.
Rockies, and downstream of a large upper trough and broad/deep
cyclone migrating northeastward across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific.

Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous
digging impulse (emanating from the Hudson Bay vicinity), are
forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted
larger-scale troughing encompassing much of the lower Mississippi
Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late
Friday night. It still appears that this will be accompanied by
only weak surface frontal wave development along a strengthening
low-level baroclinic zone across the northeastern Gulf Basin during
the day Friday. There appears to be better consensus among the
various models concerning modest cyclogenesis initiating along the
same frontal zone offshore of the Carolina coast, and along a
remnant surface frontal zone across and northeast of the Bahamas, by
late Friday night.

...Pacific Northwest...
In the wake of a weak inland advancing frontal precipitation band,
models indicate that a modest mid-level cold pool will overspread
coastal areas during the day Friday. However, forecast soundings
indicate that this will not lead to boundary-layer destabilization
supportive of an appreciable risk for convection capable of
producing lightning.

...South Atlantic Seaboard...
Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that some
further boundary-layer moistening is possible near southeastern
Florida coastal areas and parts of the Keys, where near-surface flow
may maintain an easterly component into the day Friday. It is
possible that this may contribute conditionally unstable
thermodynamic profiles in the lower- to mid-troposphere, which could
become supportive of scattered showers. However, it still appears
probable that a substantive warm/dry layer further aloft will
suppress thunderstorm development, before the boundary-layer
stabilizes in response to cooling/drying, as near-surface winds back
to north/northwesterly.

Otherwise, through at least this period, it appears that
destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development, associated
with the developing low offshore of the Carolina coast, will remain
focused near the Gulf Stream.

..Kerr.. 01/29/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291707
SWODY2
SPC AC 291705

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday
night appear less than 10 percent.

...Discussion...
There appears little change from prior model runs concerning the
general mid/upper flow evolution through this period. A lower
latitude blocking regime may become a bit more prominent
near/offshore of southern California and the Baja California
Peninsula, with larger-scale ridging being maintained within the
primary belt of westerlies across the Pacific coast through Rockies.
This is forecast to include short wave ridging building along the
British Columbia coast, in the wake of a short wave trough
progressing inland across the Canadian and adjacent northern U.S.
Rockies, and downstream of a large upper trough and broad/deep
cyclone migrating northeastward across the eastern mid-latitude
Pacific.

Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous
digging impulse (emanating from the Hudson Bay vicinity), are
forecast to consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted
larger-scale troughing encompassing much of the lower Mississippi
Valley and Gulf Basin through southern Atlantic Seaboard by late
Friday night. It still appears that this will be accompanied by
only weak surface frontal wave development along a strengthening
low-level baroclinic zone across the northeastern Gulf Basin during
the day Friday. There appears to be better consensus among the
various models concerning modest cyclogenesis initiating along the
same frontal zone offshore of the Carolina coast, and along a
remnant surface frontal zone across and northeast of the Bahamas, by
late Friday night.

...Pacific Northwest...
In the wake of a weak inland advancing frontal precipitation band,
models indicate that a modest mid-level cold pool will overspread
coastal areas during the day Friday. However, forecast soundings
indicate that this will not lead to boundary-layer destabilization
supportive of an appreciable risk for convection capable of
producing lightning.

...South Atlantic Seaboard...
Both NAM and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that some
further boundary-layer moistening is possible near southeastern
Florida coastal areas and parts of the Keys, where near-surface flow
may maintain an easterly component into the day Friday. It is
possible that this may contribute conditionally unstable
thermodynamic profiles in the lower- to mid-troposphere, which could
become supportive of scattered showers. However, it still appears
probable that a substantive warm/dry layer further aloft will
suppress thunderstorm development, before the boundary-layer
stabilizes in response to cooling/drying, as near-surface winds back
to north/northwesterly.

Otherwise, through at least this period, it appears that
destabilization supportive of thunderstorm development, associated
with the developing low offshore of the Carolina coast, will remain
focused near the Gulf Stream.

..Kerr.. 01/29/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300643
SWODY2
SPC AC 300641

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Saturday and
Saturday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move through the Southeast on Saturday,
as high pressure settles into the western Gulf Coast states and
Mississippi Valley. Low-level northerly flow will keep a dry and
cool airmass in place over the central and eastern U.S., making
conditions unfavorable for thunderstorm development Saturday and
Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 01/30/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301700
SWODY2
SPC AC 301658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. tomorrow (Saturday).

...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper trough will amplify along the East Coast as a
second upper trough impinges on the Pacific Northwest tomorrow
(Saturday). The amplification of the East Coast trough will
reinforce surface high pressure and an associated polar airmass
across most of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm potential. Strong
surface cyclogenesis is anticipated off of the Carolina Coastline,
which may promote the development of thunderstorms. However, these
storms should remain far enough east of the coastal waters to
warrant the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 01/30/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 310649
SWODY2
SPC AC 310647

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday
night.

...Discussion...
Along the northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered on the
Great Basin and Intermountain West, a low-amplitude shortwave trough
will overspread the Pacific Northwest early in the period.
While cold midlevel temperatures accompanying the trough will yield
very weak buoyancy, thunderstorm potential appears limited at this
time. Elsewhere, cold/stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms
across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 01/31/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 311650
SWODY2
SPC AC 311648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A large and powerful cyclone initially offshore of the Carolina
coast will move northeastward over the western Atlantic on Sunday,
with cold, dry, and stable conditions expected in its wake across
the eastern CONUS. Elsewhere, a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave
trough will move across the Pacific Northwest early in the period.
Cold temperatures aloft and very weak buoyancy will accompany this
system, and very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes cannot be ruled
out, but it currently appears that convection will be too
weak/shallow for a more substantial thunderstorm threat.

..Dean.. 01/31/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010650
SWODY2
SPC AC 010649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday
night.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A shortwave trough will advance eastward across the southern Plains
through the period -- gradually phasing with a midlevel trough
moving into the MS Valley. In response, positive low-level theta-e
advection will strengthen across east TX into the Arklatex vicinity
ahead of an evolving surface low and attendant cold front. While
weak elevated buoyancy may develop within the warm-advection regime
toward the end of the period, only weakly modified Gulf moisture
(lower/middle 50s dewpoints) and lingering static stability should
preclude thunderstorms.

..Weinman.. 02/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011650
SWODY2
SPC AC 011648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday
night.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a deep upper trough moving across the western
Atlantic, one shortwave trough is forecast to move southeastward
across the northern Great Plains, while another low-amplitude
shortwave trough will move eastward across TX. A weak surface low is
expected to develop across the southern High Plains, resulting in
modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the 50s F) across
central/south TX. However, surface-based buoyancy is expected remain
very weak to negligible. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop late in
the period across parts of east TX and the ArkLaTex region. The
shortwave trough moving across TX may aid in the development of
convective showers early Tuesday morning, but any such convection is
expected to remain too weak/shallow for thunderstorm development
prior to the end of the period.

..Dean.. 02/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020634
SWODY2
SPC AC 020633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...East TX into the lower MS Valley...
A series of shortwave troughs will move through/into the base of a
larger-scale trough covering the eastern half of the CONUS through
the period. As this occurs, a related cold front will move
southeastward across east TX into the lower MS Valley during the
afternoon and evening/overnight hours. Despite poor deep-layer lapse
rates, sufficient boundary-layer moisture return (middle 50s to near
60 F dewpoints) will yield weak surface-based buoyancy ahead of the
front. This will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
from east TX into LA, though the weak buoyancy and limited
large-scale ascent over the warm sector should limit the severe
risk.

..Weinman.. 02/02/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021647
SWODY2
SPC AC 021645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...East TX into the lower MS Valley...
A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will cover most of the
central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday. Multiple embedded low-amplitude
shortwave troughs are expected to move across parts of the
central/southern Plains, Midwest, and lower/mid MS Valleys. A weak
surface low is forecast to move across the TN Valley vicinity, as a
trailing cold front moves through parts of the southern Plains into
the Mid-South and lower MS Valley.

Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the mid 50s to near
60 F) is expected along/ahead of the front, though the strongest
forcing will likely be displaced north and east of the more
favorable moisture. Generally weak to modest lapse rates will limit
buoyancy (with MLCAPE generally expected to remain below 500 J/kg),
but convection may become sufficiently deep for isolated afternoon
thunderstorm development near the front from parts of east TX into
LA. Elevated convection may also develop into parts of the ArkLaMiss
region. The weak buoyancy and very modest ascent across the warm
sector are still expected to limit severe potential.

..Dean.. 02/02/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030656
SWODY2
SPC AC 030654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A positively tilted large-scale trough encompassing the eastern half
of the CONUS will undergo amplification as an embedded shortwave
trough digs southeastward across the Southeast into the northern
Gulf of America. As this occurs, a weak cold front will move
east-southeastward along the central Gulf Coast during the morning
and afternoon. Current thinking is that buoyancy over land will be
too weak/shallow for any more than an isolated lightning flash with
convection along the front.

..Weinman.. 02/03/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031632
SWODY2
SPC AC 031631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
A highly amplified upper pattern is anticipated Wednesday with a
longwave trough over the East and an anticyclone/ridge in the West.
A positive-tilt shortwave impulse digging through the basal portion
of the trough will yield weak cyclogenesis over the Southeast. A
surface cold front will trail southwestward from this cyclone into
the northwest Gulf on Wednesday morning. A combination of 50s
boundary-layer dew points and weak mid-level lapse rates should
support only scant surface to slightly elevated buoyancy near the
front. Low thunder probabilities are apparent during the morning to
afternoon, along a portion of the Gulf Coast from far southeast LA
to the FL Panhandle. The paucity of instability and modest
lower-level shear should minimize severe-storm potential.

..Grams.. 02/03/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040651
SWODY2
SPC AC 040649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Discussion...
A midlevel trough will move from the eastern U.S. into the western
Atlantic, while a related cold front and low-topped convection move
across the central/southern FL Peninsula. A lack of buoyancy will
preclude deep convection capable of producing lightning.

..Weinman.. 02/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041637
SWODY2
SPC AC 041636

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1036 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.

..Grams.. 02/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050659
SWODY2
SPC AC 050657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.

...Southern/Central CA...
Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the West Coast,
an embedded midlevel low will move east-southeastward along the
southern CA coast through the period. Broad large-scale ascent and
steepening deep-layer lapse rates accompanying this feature may
yield sufficient (albeit weak) buoyancy for a couple thunderstorms
across the region -- with the best potential over the higher terrain
late in the day.

..Weinman.. 02/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051654
SWODY2
SPC AC 051652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.

...Southern CA...
Within the base of a large-scale trough near coastal CA, an embedded
mid-level low should modestly amplify to the west of northern Baja
CA by early Saturday. Cool mid-level temperatures (around -22 C at
500 mb) in conjunction with marginal boundary-layer moisture should
yield scant buoyancy at peak heating Friday over parts of coastal
southern CA. Weak orographic ascent across the Transverse Ranges
vicinity might support a couple thunderstorms during the late
afternoon to early evening. Overall thunder probabilities appear to
be around 10 percent.

..Grams.. 02/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060531
SWODY2
SPC AC 060530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper ridge will envelop much of the western two-thirds of the
CONUS on Saturday, though an embedded southern stream shortwave
trough will develop east across portions of northwest Mexico and the
Southwest. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will move offshore the Atlantic
coast through early Sunday. At the surface, Gulf moisture will
remain cut-off as high pressure persists over the eastern half of
the CONUS. After 00z, weak surface lee troughing across the High
Plains will allow for modest south/southeasterly return flow to
spread across the western Gulf and the southern Plains. Some minor
increase in boundary-layer moisture will occur over south TX,
however this moisture is expected to remain shallow and
thunderstorms are not expected given weak forcing and warm midlevel temperatures.

..Leitman.. 02/06/2026

$$

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