ACUS03 KWNS 081927
SWODY3
SPC AC 081926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Mon Dec 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Wednesday through
Wednesday night.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern
CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded shortwave trough moves from the Midwest/Great Lakes towards the Mid Atlantic/New England. A deep
surface cyclone will move from the eastern Great Lakes toward
northern New England, as a cold front sweeps through the Ohio Valley
and Northeast.

Gulf moisture will remain suppressed through the period, resulting
in dry/stable conditions and negligible inland thunderstorm
potential across the CONUS. Some weak buoyancy may develop over far
south FL and the Keys, though potential for deep convection will be
limited by weak ascent and dry air aloft. Gusty showers will be
possible from parts of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, in
association with the surface cyclone and cold front, but buoyancy is
forecast to remain negligible across these regions.

..Dean.. 12/08/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 090743
SWODY3
SPC AC 090742

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of an increasingly prominent, blocking high building near
and to the north of the Aleutians during this period, models
indicate that strong flow will take on an increasing northwesterly
component across southern British Columbia and adjacent portions of
the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Canadian Prairies and
northern U.S. Great Plains. It appears that a significant short
wave trough near the leading edge of this regime will begin to
reinforce broad mid-level troughing extending downstream into the
western Atlantic.

While mid-level flow is likely to remain cyclonic as far south as
the Gulf Coast states into the southern mid- to subtropical
latitudes of the western Atlantic, heights across the south are
forecast to begin to rise, as a prominent perturbation accelerates
rapidly east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region through the
Canadian Maritimes.

The primary surface front, trailing an evolving cyclone across the
Canadian Maritimes, may stall across the southern Atlantic coast
through Tennessee Valley, while progressing slowly southward through
the lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains by late Thursday
night, in advance of much colder air beginning to nose southward to
the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies.

As a remnant preceding front becomes more diffuse across the central
through northwestern Gulf Basin, Gulf boundary-layer modification
may gradually continue, as a weak southerly return flow begins to
develop across the Texas coast. However, beneath relatively warm
and dry lower/mid-levels, it does not appears that this will
contribute to appreciable destabilization during this period.

..Kerr.. 12/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 091849
SWODY3
SPC AC 091848

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 PM CST Tue Dec 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible Thursday through
Thursday night.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of multiple cold frontal intrusions across the central
and eastern CONUS, generally dry and stable conditions are expected
on Thursday, with negligible thunderstorm potential. Early-stage
moisture return may commence across parts of Deep South TX and the
adjacent coastal plain, but in the absence of any appreciable
ascent, deep convection is not expected through the end of the
period.

..Dean.. 12/09/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 100727
SWODY3
SPC AC 100726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Friday through Friday night, aside from some possible weak
thunderstorm activity near Texas coastal areas prior to daybreak
Saturday.

...Discussion...
Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of
the Aleutians, it appears that the evolving flow may include a short
wave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific
Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short wave
troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level
troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great
Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the
persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies will continue
to lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient
tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio
Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of
colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the
Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday
night.

In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern
periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern
Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the
northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath
this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening
will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to
develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is
possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become
conducive to weak thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 12/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 101830
SWODY3
SPC AC 101829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper ridge over the eastern Pacific will meander east
through the forecast period while broad upper troughing persists
across the eastern U.S. At the surface, a weak low over the Ohio
Valley Friday morning will move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast late
Friday night/early Saturday morning. A trailing cold front will
develop south across TX and the Lower MS Valley. While modest
boundary layer moisture will reside across the TX coastal plain, any appreciable instability will remain offshore over the western Gulf.
A few thunderstorms could occur late in the forecast period
offshore, but any lighting activity along the coast and immediately
inland should remain limited.

..Leitman.. 12/10/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 110733
SWODY3
SPC AC 110732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered, mostly weak, thunderstorm activity is possible across the
Gulf Coast states Saturday into Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the blocking high will generally maintain
strength just to the north of Aleutians through this period. The
evolution of a lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone to its east, across
the northeastern Pacific, is more unclear, but guidance indicates
that a downstream ridge will broaden eastward, inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast through the southern Canadian
Prairies and northern U.S. Great Plains. Farther east, it still
appears that a vigorous digging short wave trough will once again
contribute to larger-scale mid-level trough amplification across the
Upper Midwest into Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday through
Saturday night.

An increasingly confluent mid-level regime, in the wake of the
amplifying trough, is forecast to support the southeastward
development of an expanding cold surface ridge to the east of the
Rockies, across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley
through western slopes of the Appalachians. By late Saturday night,
a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone, near the leading edge of
the colder air, is forecast to approach southern Mid Atlantic
through Gulf coastal areas.

In lower latitudes, beneath a weak branch of westerlies emanating
from the subtropical eastern Pacific, a remnant preceding surface
frontal zone may shift northward across the Florida Keys and
southern peninsula by 12Z Sunday, downstream of broad mid-level
troughing overspreading the Gulf Basin.

...Gulf Coast states...
Although weak lapse rates and rather weak lower/mid-tropospheric
wind fields seem likely to minimize the risk for severe weather, a
substantive increase in boundary-layer moisture, in the presence of
increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, may support increasing
scattered thunderstorm development along the front, near the Florida
Keys and southern peninsula, by late Saturday night.

Elsewhere, guidance suggests that scattered thunderstorm development
is possible near/offshore of lower through middle Texas coastal
areas, at least early Saturday. Farther northeast, a narrow plume
of elevated moisture return, off the modifying northwestern Gulf
boundary layer, might contribute to weak destabilization sufficient
for convection capable of producing lightning, mainly just ahead of
the front as it approaches the Gulf coast late Saturday night.

..Kerr.. 12/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 111900
SWODY3
SPC AC 111859

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across near South
Florida and the Keys Saturday night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough over the eastern U.S. will deepen as the western
upper ridging moves inland through the forecast period on Saturday.
A surface boundary extending along the western and central Gulf
coast vicinity will move offshore by the end of the period. Weak
warm advection and some modestly increasing midlevel westerly flow
in the vicinity of this boundary may support isolated showers from
the TX coast into portions of the central Gulf coast. However,
forecast soundings indicate minimal instability (100-200 J/kg
MUCAPE), largely stunted by warm midlevel temperatures. While
shallow convection is possible, lightning appears unlikely.

The exception may be across far southern FL and the Keys late in the
period where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place. This
will support greater instability (around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) amid
modest vertical shear ahead of the upper trough. A few thunderstorms
may approach the Keys and South FL coast in the 08-12z time frame.

..Leitman.. 12/11/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 120812
SWODY3
SPC AC 120811

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will advance from the Great Lakes to the western
Atlantic on Sunday. To the west, a ridge will remain centered across
the western CONUS. On the eastern periphery of this ridge, a
secondary mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Upper
Midwest. A very strong (1040mb+) area of high pressure will build
into the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS Sunday and push a strong cold
front into the Gulf by Sunday evening.

...South Florida...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough will approach the west coast of
Florida on Sunday morning. As this trough advances east, isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across far south
Florida. Weak lapse rates should limit storm intensity overall.
Storms should wane by the evening as the boundary layer cools and
northerly flow strengthens and brings cooler, drier air by Sunday
night.

..Bentley.. 12/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 121845
SWODY3
SPC AC 121844

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms are possible across South Florida and the Florida Keys
on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will move across the eastern CONUS and offshore the
Atlantic coast Sunday night/early Monday. At the surface, strong
high pressure will continue to build south and east from the Mid-MO
Valley to the TN Valley. As this occurs, a weak cold front will move
southeast across GA/SC and FL. Richer boundary layer moisture will
remain confined to South FL and the Keys where showers and isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning. This activity may
persist into the afternoon while shifting southeast with time. Weak
instability and modest vertical shear will preclude severe
thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 12/12/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 130718
SWODY3
SPC AC 130717

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
Strong high pressure will dominate much of the eastern 2/3rds of the
CONUS on Monday with strong offshore flow into the Atlantic and the
Gulf, pushing rich moisture well offshore. Therefore, thunderstorm
activity is not expected across much of the CONUS. The only
exception may be across the Pacific Northwest coast where some weak
instability may develop. However, even within this area, lightning
activity should remain limited due to relatively warm air aloft.

..Bentley.. 12/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 131920
SWODY3
SPC AC 131919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will build over much of the central and eastern CONUS
as a mid-level trough de-amplifies over the Pacific Northwest on
Monday. Surface high pressure will sweep across much of the southern
and eastern CONUS with a statically stable airmass, while a cold
and/or dry surface airmass encompasses much of the Plains into the
Interior West. As a result, thunderstorm development should be
negligible over most of the CONUS. The one exception may be over
portions of the Pacific Northwest Coastline. Here, the de-amplifying
ridge will aid in the advection of colder temperatures atop a marine
boundary layer. Given at least modest forcing for ascent and scant
buoyancy, a few lightning flashes may occur.

..Squitieri.. 12/13/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 140829
SWODY3
SPC AC 140828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible in the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
As high pressure moves from the Southeast into the Atlantic, and
weak lee troughing develops across the High Plains, southerly return
flow returns across the Plains on Tuesday. Some showers may develop
within weak isentropic ascent across east Texas on Tuesday night,
but most guidance shows minimal instability until after 12Z
Wednesday. Therefore, thunderstorm activity is not expected.

Thunderstorms are possible in western Washington and far northwest
Oregon on Tuesday and Tuesday night as a strong mid-level trough
approaches the coast. Weak instability is expected during the
afternoon, but most forecast soundings suggest the equilibrium level
will be too low for charge separation which may keep any lightning
potential isolated. However, by late Tuesday night/early Wednesday,
as cold air aloft overspreads the region, sufficiently deep
instability is expected for lightning across western Washington and
perhaps into northwest Oregon. During this time, more frequent
lightning may be possible with a line of convection along the
surface front.

..Bentley.. 12/14/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 141907
SWODY3
SPC AC 141907

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few lightning flashes may occur over parts of the Pacific
Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday evening, with isolated thunderstorms
also possible over the Texas Coast Plain early Wednesday morning.

...Synopsis...
A series of mid-level troughs will progress across the northern
CONUS on Tuesday, resulting in pronounced surface troughs becoming
established across the Pacific Northwest and the central CONUS.
Cooler temperatures aloft will overspread the northern OR and WA
coastline, resulting in scant buoyancy amid deep-layer ascent to
support a few lightning flashes during the day Tuesday. A warm-air
advection regime should develop along the western Gulf Coast in
response to the glancing mid-level trough to the north, resulting in
the onset of moisture return. Elevated buoyancy should develop
within the warm-air advection regime after 06Z Wednesday morning,
which may support isolated thunderstorm development across the TX
Coastal Plain.

..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 150816
SWODY3
SPC AC 150815

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early
Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak and associated shortwave trough over
the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday morning will move quickly across
the Rockies and amplify as it enters the Plains late Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. A very strong surface low, associated with
this fast-moving trough, will move from British Columbia Wednesday
morning to the Upper Midwest by early Thursday morning.

A few thunderstorms may persist early Wednesday within a region of
weak isentropic ascent across East Texas. However, as the low-level
jet veers/weakens, this threat is expected to wane. High pressure
will continue to dominate much of the daytime period across the
eastern CONUS which should limit any thunderstorm potential.
However, by Wednesday night, thunderstorm potential is expected to
increase from the Texas Coastal Plain to the Lower Ohio River
Valley. As the mid-level trough amplifies across the Plains, a
low-level jet will rapidly strengthen from East Texas to the Ozarks.
This will advect low-level moisture northward during the evening.
After 06Z, weak to potentially moderate elevated instability is
expected within a broad region of weak isentropic ascent from
Arkansas to southern Illinois. Effective shear (based on an elevated
parcel) is expected to remain very weak early Thursday morning as
the primary mid-level jet streak is not forecast to emerge over the
warm sector until later Thursday morning. Therefore, no severe
weather is anticipated on Day 3/Wednesday.

..Bentley.. 12/15/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 151932
SWODY3
SPC AC 151931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain
Wednesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible early
Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the north-central
CONUS on Wednesday, prompting the rapid eastward progression of a
990 mb surface low along the U.S./Canada border. A trailing cold
front will extend from the surface low to the Rockies, preceded by
surface troughing and associated southerly moisture return from the
western Gulf. Low-level warm-air advection should take place across
eastern TX to the Ozarks through the day Wednesday, promoting
marginal buoyancy amid some synoptic ascent attributed to surface
troughing. By early Thursday morning, enough buoyancy should be in
place for the development of isolated thunderstorms across the
Sabine River Valley into the Ozarks.

..Squitieri.. 12/15/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 160830
SWODY3
SPC AC 160829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the mid-level
trough across the central Plains early Thursday and emerge across
the Ohio Valley by Thursday afternoon/evening. This trough will
continue east and take on a more neutral to perhaps negative tilt by
early Friday across the East Coast. A strong (sub 990mb) surface low
will move from the Upper Midwest to southern Quebec with a trailing
cold front sweeping from the Midwest to the East Coast.

...OH/TN Valleys...
A line of convection will likely be in its infancy along the cold
front in Illinois and Missouri at the beginning of the period.
Low-level moisture will continue to advect north ahead of this cold
front and result in some weak destabilization. The mid-50s dewpoints
will likely struggle to make it north of the Ohio River given the
snowpack across the region, despite very strong low-level moisture
advection. However, south of this snowpack there will likely be a
zone where the strong forcing along the cold front can overcome only
marginally unstable surface parcels. This strongly forced convective
line amid 60-70 knots of background flow (as low as 1km) will
support isolated damaging wind gusts through the afternoon.

Greater instability is expected south of the TN/MS/AL border where
upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints are forecast. However, despite the
more favorable thermodynamics, the upper-level forcing will be
weaker. Therefore, it is unclear whether the line of storms will
continue that far south, and additional convection ahead of the
front will likely struggle given the weak lapse rates/minimal
heating.

...Eastern Virginia into North Carolina...
Late in the period, as the cold front crosses the Appalachians,
moisture is expected to advect inland across eastern North Carolina
and eastern Virginia. A strong wind field will continue across the
region, and if sufficient instability can develop, a damaging wind
threat could materialize early Friday morning. However, the degree
of destabilization remains uncertain and will depend on how quickly
the cold air damming can erode. A solution such as the 00Z NAM (with
60F dewpoints into the DelMarva) would certainly result in some
threat, but most other guidance keeps dewpoints in the mid 50s with
minimal instability. Trends will be monitored closely in this region
in later outlooks and probabilities may be added if the forecast
trends towards greater instability.

..Bentley.. 12/16/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 161925
SWODY3
SPC AC 161924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the
Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A powerful upper trough will move from the Plains into the MS Valley
on Thursday, taking on a negative tilt late in the period as it
moves across the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. Strong
cooling aloft will occur with the greatest large-scale ascent across
the OH and TN Valleys.

At the surface, low pressure will move from Upper MI eastward into
southwest Quebec, with a cold front trailing south of the low and
reaching the northern Gulf of America overnight.

Ahead of the front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as
far north as the OH River, with lower 60s F possible near the
ArkLaMiss. Substantial clouds and areas of precipitation will limit
heating over most of the area, and SBCAPE will be quite low.
However, lift immediately along the cold front should at least
result in a low-topped forced line of convection. SBCAPE will be low
even south of I-40, despite higher dewpoints as temperatures aloft
will be warmer.

Despite these mitigating issues, favorable large-scale ascent during
the daytime along with at least marginal instability and strong flow
off the surface may yield locally strong to damaging gusts with
activity along the cold front.

..Jewell.. 12/16/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 170822
SWODY3
SPC AC 170821

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected along the East Coast Friday morning and
in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday night.

...Discussion...
A strong cold front will be moving quickly eastward Friday morning
with a shallow convective band along the front. A few stronger
storms are possible as the front interacts with slightly greater moisture/instability near the coast. However, it is unclear whether
storms will intensify before they move offshore. The best potential
for a few stronger cells with some gusty winds will be across
southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina.

In the wake of this cold front, cool/dry conditions associated with
a surface high will bring dry conditions to much of the eastern
CONUS. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the Pacific
Northwest as temperatures cool aloft.

..Bentley.. 12/17/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 171928
SWODY3
SPC AC 171927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may occur over the Mid Atlantic and Northeast early
Friday, and in the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through Friday
night.

...Discussion...
A deep upper trough will move from the Great Lakes across the
Northeast, with a strong cold front moving across New England and
the Mid Atlantic during the day. Widespread precipitation and clouds
are likely within the pre-frontal warm advection regime, and this
will limit heating and destabilization. Sporadic lightning flashes
are possible within the strongly forced shallow convective line
and/or with elevated pre-frontal convective elements.

..Jewell.. 12/17/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 180828
SWODY3
SPC AC 180827

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Washington and
far northwest Oregon on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-level jet streak over the northern Plains Saturday
morning will move east as a mid-level trough amplifies across the
Great Lakes. As this occurs, a surface cold front will move from the
Plains Saturday morning to near the Appalachians and extending back
into East Texas by early Sunday morning.

...East Texas into Louisiana...
Low-level moisture return will bring low to mid 60s dewpoints
northward across East Texas and Louisiana on Saturday and Saturday
evening. Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to
develop. However forcing will be minimal with rising heights aloft
and a weakening low-level jet. In addition, forecast soundings show
warm mid-level temperatures which will likely keep the airmass
capped. Therefore, thunderstorms are not expected across East Texas
and Louisiana on Saturday night/early Sunday.

...Pacific Northwest..
Persistent onshore flow with cool temperatures aloft will result in
persistent convective activity across western Washington and
northwest Oregon on Saturday. Forecast soundings show weak
instability and equilibrium levels near or slightly above -20C which
may support some isolated thunderstorms.

..Bentley.. 12/18/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 181913
SWODY3
SPC AC 181912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across western Oregon and
northern California late Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
A broad cyclonic flow regime aloft will develop from the central
into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, with an upper trough amplifying
from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Gradual height rises
will occur over the West, with weak flow aloft across the southern
tier of states. Late in the period into Sunday morning, height falls
will begin across the Pacific Northwest with an approaching wave.

At the surface, high pressure will exist along the East Coast with
southerly winds across the western Gulf and into the southern
Plains. While some degree of low-level moisture return will occur,
another cold front will push south across the Plains behind the
developing Great Lakes system. As a result, any instability over
coastal TX/LA should remain capped.

Chances for thunderstorms will develop late in the period across the
Pacific Northwest as a plume of midlevel moisture arrives out of the
west. This moistening and warming in the 850-700 mb layer will
result in weak elevated instability sufficient for isolated
lightning.

..Jewell.. 12/18/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 190829
SWODY3
SPC AC 190828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized areas of thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough over the Northeast U.S./Quebec Province will
move east on Sunday, as an upstream upper trough approaches the
Pacific Northwest coast. A surface cold front will move across the eastern/southeast U.S. as an expansive high pressure system becomes
established behind the front.

Generally weak buoyancy may develop near the TX and LA coastal areas
where heating of 60s surface dew points takes place, however little
in the way of large-scale ascent is expected in this region. Thus,
while an isolated thunderstorm will be possible across the lower MS
Valley in the vicinity of the front, the overall potential for
thunderstorms appears too limited for the introduction of a 10
percent area with this outlook.

..Bunting.. 12/19/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 191924
SWODY3
SPC AC 191923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Minimal thunderstorm activity is expected on Sunday across the USA.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will move across the Northeast on Sunday, with
generally zonal flow extending to the west. At the surface, high
pressure will move eastward across the Midwest during day, and
toward the Mid Atlantic by Monday morning. As result of the dry air
mass, stable conditions will be prevalent over much of the central
and eastern CONUS.

To the west, a weak midlevel feature will approach the Pacific
Northwest with cooling aloft as a cold front approaches the WA/OR
Coast around 00Z. Little if any instability is forecast to be
present except primarily over the ocean. Farther south, southwest
flow with midlevel moisture and lift will be prevalent across much
of northern CA, and weak elevated instability is forecast by some of
the models. However, overall thunderstorm/lightning coverage will
likely be quite low.

..Jewell.. 12/19/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 200727
SWODY3
SPC AC 200726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
The large-scale pattern will undergo modest amplification on Monday
via additional upper ridging over the south-central CONUS and
northern Mexico. As a surface high continues to transition
east-southeastward along the Eastern Seaboard/Southeast, moderate
low-level moistening will occur north-northeastward across
Louisiana/eastern half of Texas toward the ArkLaTex. A few
thunderstorms could occur within this warm/moist advection regime,
but it currently appears that upper ridging and related mid-level
capping should considerably limit thunderstorm potential. In the
Pacific Northwest, a few lightning flashes could occur near coastal
Washington, but this potential should remain limited/isolated while
also trending less thermodynamically favorable by late in the day.

..Guyer.. 12/20/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 201922
SWODY3
SPC AC 201921

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0121 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will continue across much of the CONUS on
Monday. A compact, moderately strong shortwave trough will move into
the Pacific Northwest by mid/late afternoon. As the surface high
continues to move south and east through the Mid-Atlantic, moisture
return will occur in the western/central Gulf Coast regions. Very
isolated thunderstorm activity could occur near the Texas Gulf
Coast, but this potential should be quite limited given ridging
aloft and weak low-level forcing. Within the coastal Northwest, cold temperatures aloft are expected to support isolated, low-topped
thunderstorm activity late afternoon into early evening.

..Wendt.. 12/20/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 210809
SWODY3
SPC AC 210809

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Synopsis...
A dominant mid- to upper-level ridge will remain steadfast across
central portion of the Lower 48 states. An upper trough will
encroach on the West Coast, and a lead mid-level trough will move
quickly northeast from the eastern Pacific into the northern CA
coastal area late Tuesday night. Scant to weak buoyancy will
gradually develop Tuesday night in the vicinity of the CA coast and
coastal range from near Point Conception to near the OR border.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually spread
inland concurrent with increasing large-scale forcing and
instability. Some forecast soundings depict a deep,
lower-tropospheric moist layer co-located with intense low-level
shear, which could imply storm organization being possible with the
strongest low-topped storms. Uncertainty is high at this time for
such a scenario given appreciable model variability. Farther east,
a weak upper trough near the lower Rio Grande Valley will undercut a
mid- to upper-level ridge over the central US. Weak convection is
possible in association with this upper feature, but confidence in
attaining 10-percent thunderstorm probabilities is low at this time.

..Smith.. 12/21/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 211925
SWODY3
SPC AC 211924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
contiguous United States on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...California...
Within large-scale upper troughing over the eastern Pacific, a
mid-level shortwave trough and associated jet will overspread much
of northern/central CA Tuesday through Tuesday night. An attendant
surface low is forecast to develop northward along/near the coast of northern/central CA late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.
Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will be present over this
region owing to strengthening flow aloft with the approaching
shortwave trough. However, considerable uncertainty still exists
regarding the depth/quality of low-level moisture and whether enough instability will exist to support a meaningful change for
surface-based thunderstorms given the unfavorable time of night and
generally modest lapse rates.

Some of the more aggressive guidance (12Z RRFS) suggests that weak
but sufficient MLCAPE may develop late Tuesday into early Wednesday
to support some threat for strong/gusty winds with thunderstorms as
mid-level temperatures gradually cool with the shortwave trough
overspreading the CA Coast. Based on a consensus of other available
guidance, this potential still appears a bit too
uncertain/conditional to include low severe probabilities along the
CA Coast at this time. Regardless, the chance for elevated
convection remains apparent, and the general thunderstorm area has
been expanded across more of CA with this update.

..Gleason.. 12/21/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 220829
SWODY3
SPC AC 220828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE CALIFORNIA
CENTRAL VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of California.

...California...
An upper trough over the eastern Pacific and upper ridge over the
Great Plains will maintain a belt of strong to intense cyclonic flow
across CA north-northeastward into the Interior West. A lead
shortwave trough will move from the OR/CA border northward into WA
during the day, while an upstream disturbance moves from the eastern
Pacific northeastward into central and northern CA after dark. A
prolonged period of scattered showers and episodic periods of
isolated thunderstorms are forecast across CA on Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Relatively cold mid-level temperatures (-20 to -24
deg C at 500 mb) will aid in the development of weak instability
during the afternoon across portions of the central valley.
Elongated hodographs coupled with the potential for a short-duration
period of modest surface-based destabilization could yield an
isolated risk for a couple of weakly rotating storms. A risk for
localized squalls moving inland near the immediate coast from parts
of southern into central CA may focus primarily late Wednesday into
Wednesday night ahead of the approaching disturbance.

Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will prevail across much of the
CONUS.

..Smith.. 12/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 221928
SWODY3
SPC AC 221927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms are possible on
Wednesday and Wednesday night across portions of California.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced upper ridge will remain anchored over the central and
eastern US while strong troughing persists over the West Coast. A
series of embedded impulses will move onshore Wednesday and
Wednesday night, coincident with their attendant deepening surface
lows. A cold front and persistent southwesterly low-level flow
should support isolated thunderstorms over much of the West Coast
through early Thursday.

...California...
As troughing deepens over the eastern Pacific, several embedded
disturbances will propagate eastward overspreading modest low-level
moisture from the CA coast to the central valley. Robust forcing for
ascent and cold temperatures aloft (-24 to -26 C) overspreading 50s
F dewpoints will likely support weak buoyancy along the southern CA
coast and central Valley. A prolonged period of scattered showers
and episodic periods of isolated thunderstorms are possible
Wednesday morning and afternoon. Of these storms, sufficient CAPE,
strong flow aloft and locally enlarged hodographs may allow for a
few semi-organized/weakly rotating storms to mature. Sporadic
damaging gusts, small hail and a brief tornado would be possible
with the strongest storms before convection weakens into the evening
and first part of the overnight hours.

Additional low-topped linear storms/localized squalls are also
possible ahead of the advancing cold front near the immediate
coastal portions of central and northern CA primarily late Wednesday
into Wednesday night. A few strong gusts are possible, though
instability should quickly decrease inland.

Elsewhere across the US, the prominent ridging will favor dry and
unseasonably warm conditions with little potential for
thunderstorms.

..Lyons.. 12/22/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 230816
SWODY3
SPC AC 230815

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado, will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central and
southern California Coast.

...California...
A large-scale mid-level trough will move slowly eastward toward the
California coast on Thursday. Strong flow aloft will maintain a
stream of mid-level moisture into the region, as large-scale ascent
continues to support scattered thunderstorm development. At the
surface, a cold front will approach the central California coast
during the day. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front will be in the
50s F, southward into parts of southern California. This should be
enough for weak destabilization near the coast during the late
morning and afternoon, which could result in a marginal severe
threat. Strong low to mid-level flow and modestly steep low-level
lapse rates could support isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado.

..Broyles.. 12/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 231923
SWODY3
SPC AC 231922

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado, will be possible on Thursday along parts of the central and
southern California Coast.

...California...
Large-scale mid-level troughing is forecast to persist across the CA
coast and move onshore Thursday and Thursday night. Within the
broader trough, several embedded impulses will move onshore within
strong southwesterly mid-level flow. One of these stronger impulses
will start the day moving onshore over northern CA before quickly
lifting north into southern OR. A strong surface low and cold front
associated with this impulse will move quickly toward the coast
prior to 12z Thursday. A band of low-topped storms along the front
may be ongoing at the start of the forecast period, and persist for
a few hours Thursday morning. Confidence in sufficient buoyancy for
a sustained severe threat farther inland is low. Still, strong low
to mid-level flow and modestly steep low-level lapse rates could
support isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado early
along the coast.

The severe threat will likely shift southeastward toward southern CA
coast through the day as a second mid-level impulse and the main
core of the upper trough approach. Strong onshore flow and
persistent low-level moisture transport will allow for weak
destabilization near the coast during the afternoon and continuing
into the evening. 90+ kt of mid-level flow and locally enlarged
hodographs could allow for occasional stronger storms capable of
damaging gusts or a brief tornado despite the weak buoyancy.

..Lyons.. 12/23/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 240831
SWODY3
SPC AC 240830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe storms are expected to develop across the continental U.S.
on Friday or Friday night.

...DISCUSSION...
At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward across the central U.S. on
Friday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the Northeast. A few
storms may form ahead of the trough Friday afternoon and evening
across parts of the central Appalachians. Out west, a trough will
move inland across the Pacific Northwest, with southwesterly flow
being in place across the Intermountain West. Isolated storms will
be possible across parts of California and in the Intermountain
West. No severe threat is expected to develop Friday or Friday
night.

..Broyles.. 12/24/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 241921
SWODY3
SPC AC 241920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the continental U.S. Friday or
Friday night.

...Synopsis...
An expansive upper ridge centered over the Plains States will begin
to weaken as it moves eastward Friday. Flow aloft will become
increasingly zonal as broad troughing over the West Coast moves
inland. With continued moisture transport and southwesterly flow in
place over much of the West, isolated storms could be ongoing across
parts of the West Coast and southern CA early. However, little to no
severe threat is expected given the weak buoyancy. Troughing is
forecast to move farther inland quickly, limiting the thunderstorm
threat Friday and Friday night.

...Upper OH Valley...
A secondary low-amplitude upper trough will develop over the
northeastern US late Friday. As it moves southeastward, a weak,
clipper-style, surface low will deepen across the upper OH Valley
and central Appalachians. Cool mid-level temperatures and modest
low-level moisture ahead of the low and trailing cold front could
support weak elevated buoyancy into early Saturday. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible into early Saturday. However, with less
than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE, severe storms appear unlikely.

..Lyons.. 12/24/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 250816
SWODY3
SPC AC 250815

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. on Saturday or Saturday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the mid Mississippi and
Ohio Valleys on Saturday, as a trough moves through the
Intermountain West. Thunderstorms will be possible, mainly Saturday
night within anticyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow from the
southern Plains to the lower Ohio Valley. Additional storms may form
along the lower to middle Texas coast.

..Broyles.. 12/25/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 251928
SWODY3
SPC AC 251927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. on Saturday or
Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level ridging will continue to deamplify Saturday as a broad
Pacific trough ejects over the central CONUS. A positive-tilt lead
shortwave will move over the southern/central Plains and into the
Midwest Saturday afternoon into early Sunday, while several other
perturbations coalesce over the Rockies. A lee low and increasing
low-level warm advection/moisture transport should allow for weak
elevated destabilization overnight Saturday into early Sunday from
the Plains States to the lower OH Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may
develop along a stalled frontal zone over KS/OK, spreading east
northeastward overnight. Additional storms may form along the lower
to middle Texas coast. With only weak buoyancy for elevated
thunderstorms and modest deep-layer shear overlap, severe potential
appears negligible.

..Lyons.. 12/25/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 260812
SWODY3
SPC AC 260811

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO
TN/KY/OH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday into Sunday
night from Arkansas and Missouri into parts of the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys.

...MO/AR to TN/KY/OH...
Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of
an upper trough, as it progresses from the High Plains to the
North-Central States. This will induce deepening of a surface
cyclone from near the Ozarks to the eastern Great Lakes. Attendant
cold front will accelerate on Sunday night as it quickly moves east
across the OH Valley and south into the Northwest Gulf.

Isolated to scattered elevated convection within the strengthening
low-level warm conveyor should persist, yielding a northern limiter
to potential severe thunderstorms later in the day through Sunday
night. Outside of the likely too cool/stable 00Z NAM, bulk of
preferred guidance suggest weak surface-based destabilization may
occur as a broad plume of upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints
becomes established ahead of the front and deepening cyclone. Richer boundary-layer moisture with at least mid 60s surface dewpoints
should largely hold over the Lower MS Valley and Deep South.

Late afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the Mid-MS
Valley/Ozarks vicinity. Amid broadening large-scale ascent, upscale
growth into a thin but long QLCS seems plausible along the front
given the orientation of the deep-layer winds. Despite only minimal
to meager surface-based instability on Sunday night, intensifying
wind fields throughout the troposphere could support a convective
line with/without lightning. This may yield a threat of sporadic
strong to severe gusts producing at least isolated damaging winds.

..Grams.. 12/26/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 261931
SWODY3
SPC AC 261930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday night
from the Southern Great Lakes into parts of the Ohio and Mid
Mississippi Valleys.

...Mid MS to the OH Valleys...
An initially broad and multi-faceted positive-tilt upper trough over
the central US is forecast to undergo substantial amplification as
it moves eastward toward the Great Lakes Sunday and Sunday night.
The corresponding surface low will quickly intensify as it moves
eastward from KS/MO across northern IL. A trailing cold front will
also strengthen, with low-level moisture transport ahead of the
front (50s and 60s F surface dewpoints) aiding in modest
destabilization Sunday evening.

Elevated convection is likely to be ongoing over the MO valley
vicinity early in the period associated with the strong low-level
theta-E advection. This convection may remain elevated for much of
the day as it tracks along a stalled frontal zone from northern
MO/IL vicinity eastward into OH/IN and southern lower MI. Still,
some elements may eventually become near-surface based with weak
MUCAPE (100-200 J/kg) potentially supporting a few stronger gusts
near the surface.

Additional surface-based storms will likely develop within the
moistening warm sector over the northern Ozarks and mid MS valley
late Sunday afternoon. A low-topped convective band could organize
along the front as it moves east/southeast from the MS/OH Valleys
toward the northern Gulf Coast. As the trough and surface low
deepen, flow aloft will also increase. A strong (45-55+ kt)
low-level jet will develop from the Mid South to the southern Great
Lakes, rapidly strengthening low and mid-level shear profiles. While
buoyancy will be marginal (250-500 J/kg MUCAPE), this should be
sufficient for stronger linear segments to organize along the
surging cold front. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado or two are possible as the line moves quickly eastward over
the Mid MS and eventually the OH Valley Sunday night.

..Lyons.. 12/26/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 270746
SWODY3
SPC AC 270745

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.

...Discussion...
A deep surface cyclone over Lake Huron at 12Z Monday should
gradually fill as it occludes and tracks into southern QC. Secondary cyclogenesis should occur over ME into the Canadian Maritimes. The
surface warm-moist sector will be confined to the Southeast, up to
near the VA Tidewater, ahead of a progressive cold front. Guidance
is consistent with negligible instability along/ahead of the front,
which should clear all but the FL Peninsula by late afternoon and
then shift entirely offshore Monday night. Shallow convection is
possible along portions of the front, with thunderstorm
probabilities appearing to be less than 10 percent.

..Grams.. 12/27/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 271920
SWODY3
SPC AC 271919

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0119 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Monday
through Monday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will be
maintained across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest into
portions of the Canadian Prairies and U.S. Great Plains Monday
through Monday night, but with little further amplification. At the
same time, some further amplification of large-scale downstream
troughing may continue, as a surface cold intrusion noses through
the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, the primary embedded short
wave perturbation and associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone are
generally forecast to progress northeast and east of the lower Great
Lakes region, toward the Canadian Maritimes.

In the wake of a secondary developing surface low, across parts of
northern New England into the lower St. Lawrence Valley, the leading
edge of the cold air is forecast to rapidly spread east/southeast of
the Appalachians and well offshore of much of the Atlantic Seaboard
by late Monday night. Along this frontal zone, models do indicate
the lingering presence of weak, elevated instability across parts of
Deep South Texas, the northeastern Gulf coast vicinity, and the
northern Mid Atlantic into New England early through midday Monday.
However, the extent to which forcing for ascent remains supportive
of convection capable of producing lightning remains unclear, and
thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10
percent.

..Kerr.. 12/27/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 280643
SWODY3
SPC AC 280642

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will not occur on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period.

..Grams.. 12/28/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 281845
SWODY3
SPC AC 281844

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the
U.S. for Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that the center of a broad and still deepening
cyclone will migrate north-northwest of the St. Lawrence Valley,
toward the southern Hudson Bay vicinity through this period. At
mid-levels, it appears that the broadening circulation will be
reinforced by a vigorous short wave perturbation digging from the
higher latitudes. Surrounding this low, cyclonic flow will likely
encompass most areas east of the Rockies through the offshore
western Atlantic, with some further amplification across the Gulf
Basin into the Caribbean and Bahamas. Beneath this regime, cool
surface ridging entrenched across much of the southern Great Plains,
Gulf Coast and Gulf Basin is forecast to only slowly begin to
weaken.

Upstream, a cyclonic circulation over the subtropical eastern
Pacific may gradually begin to consolidate in advance of more
notable short wave troughing digging across the mid-latitude eastern
Pacific. However, a substantive northeastward acceleration of the
low toward the California coast appears unlikely through at least
early Wednesday, and mid-level ridging will generally be maintained
across much of the interior West. While lower/mid-tropospheric
moisture return emanating from the lower latitude eastern Pacific
may overspread portions of the Southwest into Great Basin, it is
still not clear that this will yield sufficient destabilization to
support convection capable of producing lightning (although NAM
forecast soundings around the Las Vegas, NV vicinity late Tuesday evening/overnight suggest that this might not be completely out of
the question).

..Kerr.. 12/28/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 290635
SWODY3
SPC AC 290634

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning along coastal southern California.

...Southern CA...
A retrograding cutoff low currently near the central/southern CA
coast is consistently progged to eject back northeastward as a
shortwave trough towards the southern CA coast on Wednesday night.
Ahead of this trough, sufficient 850-700 mb moisture within the
modest warm conveyor combined with weak mid-level cooling may yield
scant elevated buoyancy by the 06-12Z period. This could support a
threat of isolated thunderstorms, mainly early morning Thursday.

..Grams.. 12/29/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 291846
SWODY3
SPC AC 291845

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late New Year's Eve into early
New Year's Day along coastal southern California.

...Southern CA...
An initially retrograding upper low off of the southern CA coast is
forecast to stall and then eject northeastward as a shortwave trough
through the period, approaching the coast by early Thursday morning.
A modest increase in moisture beneath cooling temperatures aloft
could support weak thunderstorm development, mainly late in the
period from the Channel Islands to the immediate southern CA coast.
With only very meager forecast buoyancy, convection is expected to
remain too shallow and disorganized for an appreciable severe
threat, despite some increase in deep-layer flow/shear with time.

..Dean.. 12/29/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 300734
SWODY3
SPC AC 300733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts
of southern California and Arizona.

...Southern CA to AZ...
While guidance has general agreement of a compact/lower-amplitude
shortwave impulse off the southern CA coast, models differ on its
spatial placement and potential dampening inland on Thursday amid a
broad ridge anchored across the West downstream of a longwave trough
in the northeast Pacific. This renders uncertainty over the degree
of mesoscale low-level flow enhancement along coastal southern CA
between 12-18Z, which will be crucial to any severe potential with
low-topped convection amid a meager buoyancy profile. In addition,
with latitudinal inconsistency in placement of the compact mid-level
cold core, confidence is low in the degree of thunderstorm
potential. The 00Z ECMWF appears to support potential for
low-probability severe on Thursday morning. Most other models, along
with the latest GEFS and yesterday's ECENS ML guidance, indicate
negligible severe potential.

Farther inland, buoyancy should remain scant east of the Peninsular
Ranges. But it may be adequate for sporadic lightning flashes that
yield very isolated thunderstorms across southwest AZ through
Thursday evening.

..Grams.. 12/30/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 301930
SWODY3
SPC AC 301929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts
of southern California and Arizona.

...Southern CA to AZ...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across parts of
southern CA Thursday morning, before dampening as it shifts eastward
across parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region later
in the period. Cooling aloft atop modestly increasing low-level
moisture will support some early-day thunderstorm potential across
coastal southern CA.

Guidance continues to vary regarding the strength, trajectory, and
magnitude of attendant flow fields of this system as it approaches
the coast. The somewhat stronger and farther south solutions (such
as the 12Z NAM/RRFS) depict potential for strong storm development
offshore, which could affect near-coastal areas of southern CA
during the morning before weakening. Other guidance (such as the 12Z
ECMWF) has trended northward, bringing stronger midlevel flow across
southern CA, but also greater displacement between substantial
cooling aloft and the more favorable low-level moisture. In general,
confidence in sufficient strengthening of flow within this weak
buoyancy regime remains too low to include severe probabilities.

Uncertainty regarding the evolution of the shortwave extends
downstream into parts of the Desert Southwest, but an area of
modestly enhanced low-level moisture across southwest AZ could
support isolated storm development later in the day into the
evening, as some cooling aloft overspreads the region.

..Dean.. 12/30/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 310829
SWODY3
SPC AC 310828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early
morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as
well as along a portion of the Pacific Coast.

...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South...
At least isolated thunderstorm potential should return across a
portion of the interior Deep South on Friday night. Meager elevated
buoyancy should develop as low-level moistening occurs ahead of a
leading shortwave impulse tracking across the Mid-South to TN
Valley. This impulse may dampen downstream of a shortwave trough
progressing from the Four Corners to north TX. The bulk of MUCAPE
should largely remain at around 500 J/kg or less, owing to modest
mid-level lapse rates.

Farther south towards the central Gulf Coast from southeast LA to
the FL Panhandle, richer low-level moisture should spread somewhat
inland ahead of the more prominent shortwave trough. Most convective-parameterized models suggest an increase in convective
development may occur at the end of the period within the low-level
theta-e gradient. Despite a generally zonal deep-layer wind profile,
adequate low-level hodograph curvature and robust speed shear
renders a conditional supercell concern. But poor mid-level lapse
rates renders concern for the degree of convective development prior
to 12Z, with the 00Z RRFS having minimal deep convective signal.
With minimal ML probabilities across this area as well, will defer
to later outlook cycles for a level 1-MRGL risk highlight.

...Coastal northern CA and southwest OR...
A large-scale upper trough will approach the Pacific Coast, with an
intense mid-level jetlet likely impinging on the northern CA coast
on Friday night. Fast deep-layer flow is anticipated within the
low-level warm conveyor, but should remain entirely meridional until
near the end of the period. Instability within the warm conveyor
appears minimal, suggesting that thunderstorm potential will remain
negligible amid strong gradient flow. Steepening mid-level lapse
rates may brush the northern CA to southwest OR coast in the early
morning Saturday. This should support scant buoyancy and potential
for very isolated thunderstorms.

..Grams.. 12/31/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 311932
SWODY3
SPC AC 311930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early
morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as
well as along coastal areas of central and northern California and
southwest Orgeon.

...LA/MS/AL vicinity...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move from
the south-central Plains towards the TN Valley on Friday. A somewhat
stronger upstream shortwave trough will move quickly
east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward parts of north/east
TX. A surface low initially over north TX is expected to move
eastward toward northern MS/AL by Friday night. Increasing low-level
moisture within the warm sector of this low will allow for modest
diurnal destabilization, with MLCAPE potentially increasing to
near/above 500 J/kg across parts of LA/MS, in advance of a trailing
cold front.

Strengthening deep-layer shear will become conditionally favorable
for organized convection, but potential for robust surface-based
development may be limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and
relatively modest large-scale ascent within the warm sector. It
still appears that the bulk of any thunderstorm development will be
somewhat elevated and occur near and north of the surface warm front
across northern MS/AL/GA and southern TN, primarily during the
evening and overnight. At this time, elevated buoyancy appears
insufficient to support an organized severe threat with this
activity. However, if confidence increases regarding development of near-surface-based storms within the warm sector of the
eastward-moving low, then severe probabilities may eventually be
needed.

...Coastal northern CA/southwest OR...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will gradually move eastward and
approach the Pacific Coast by Friday night, as a strong jet begins
to impinge upon areas of central/northern CA and the Pacific
Northwest. A deepening surface low associated with this trough is
expected to remain offshore through Saturday morning. The strongest
low-level flow (50+ kt at 850 mb) will occur within the warm
conveyor of this cyclone, where instability is expected to remain
negligible.

Late in the period, some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates
may approach coastal areas of central/northern CA and southwest OR.
This may allow for development of generally weak convection with
sproadic lightning flashes. Low-level flow is forecast to remain
rather strong (35-45 kt at 850 mb) as midlevel lapse rates begin to
steepen, and any lightning-producing convection could be coincident
with gusty winds. However, any convective contribution to
damaging-wind potential may be limited by very meager surface-based
buoyancy through the end of the period.

..Dean.. 12/31/2025

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 010828
SWODY3
SPC AC 010828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHERN CA TO COASTAL SOUTHWEST OR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento Valley to coastal northern
California-southwest Oregon during the late afternoon to evening.

...Southeast...
A lower-amplitude shortwave trough should progress east across the
Lower MS Valley on Saturday morning and off the South Atlantic Coast
by Saturday night. Attendant surface cyclone should remain weak and
track from central AL to off coastal SC by evening. Timing of
large-scale ascent with the trough should yield increasing
convective coverage by late morning to midday, focused along the
northeast Gulf Coast to the Savannah Valley. Much of the region
should remain within the MLCAPE gradient as a plume of moderate
buoyancy becomes established over the northwest Gulf to central Gulf
Coast. Guidance consensus suggests that low-level winds may
gradually dampen through the day and become displaced east of richer boundary-layer moisture as the surface low moves towards the coast.
With a predominately west-southwesterly wind profile, deep-layer
speed shear should be the primary driver of organized convection. A
mix of all hazards appears plausible, although a corridor of greater
damaging wind potential may be evident in later outlooks.

...Northern CA to coastal southwest OR...
Guidance appears to be converging towards multiple shortwave
impulses ejecting northeast from a large-scale trough off the West
Coast. The more vigorous impulse should impinge on coastal OR around
Saturday evening, while a separate impulse dampens from the Bay Area
to the Sierra NV Mountains on Saturday afternoon. The southern
impulse should be favorably timed with afternoon boundary-layer
heating over the Sacramento Valley, where meager MLCAPE of 250-500
J/kg may develop. Amid a swath of strong mid-level
south-southwesterlies, an elongated hodograph could favor splitting
weak supercell structures that pose a risk for a brief tornado and
small hail. The northern impulse should be accompanied by very
strong low-level southerlies from 60-70 kts at 850 mb. While
buoyancy will remain scant, low-topped convection along the northern
CA to southwest OR coast could pose a threat for severe gusts.

..Grams.. 01/01/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 011930
SWODY3
SPC AC 011929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND ALSO FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN CA INTO COASTAL
SOUTHWEST OR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to
coastal northern California-southwest Oregon during the late
afternoon to evening.

...Parts of the Southeast...
A positive-tilt mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
from the lower MS Valley toward the South Atlantic Coast through the
period, as an attendant surface low moves from parts of AL/GA to
offshore of SC by late evening. A trailing cold front will move
through parts of the Southeast and central Gulf Coast vicinity.

Guidance continues to vary regarding the timing of the front and
extent of heating/destabilization across the warm sector, but a
plume of weak to moderate MLCAPE is expected to be in place
along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon, as low-level
moisture spreads northeastward. Some veering/weakening of low-level
flow is forecast across parts of the warm sector with time
(especially with southwestward extent), but increasing midlevel flow
will result in sufficient effective shear for organized storms,
including some supercell potential.

Any lingering morning convection may intensify during the afternoon,
with additional storm development expected along/ahead of the cold
front, and near the primary buoyancy gradient and effective warm
front. This activity could pose at least a low-probability threat
for all severe hazards. A corridor of somewhat greater potential may
evolve within the broader Marginal Risk area, though uncertainty
remains regarding the magnitude of diurnal heating/destabilization,
and the strength/timing of the primary shortwave trough as it moves
quickly eastward.

...Northern CA to coastal southwest OR...
Latest guidance still depicts potential for multiple shortwave
troughs to eject northeastward from a deep mid/upper-level trough
off of the Pacific Coast. The southernmost shortwave is forecast to
move across central CA through the afternoon, while the more
vigorous northern shortwave is expected to affect coastal OR from
late afternoon into the evening.

The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal
convective development across the Sacramento and northern San
Joaquin Valleys, where cooling midlevel temperatures (dropping below
-20C at 500 mb) may support SBCAPE of 250-500 J/kg during the
afternoon. With relatively elongated hodographs, this generally
meager buoyancy may be sufficient for transient rotating cells to
develop, which could pose a threat for a brief tornado, small hail,
and locally gusty winds.

The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed
strengthening of low-level flow, potentially increasing to
near/above 60 kt at 850 mb over the ocean and along the northern
CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain meager, but cold
temperatures aloft will support low-topped convection that could
contribute to severe-gust potential. Transient rotating cells may
also develop offshore and approach the coast.

..Dean.. 01/01/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 050756
SWODY3
SPC AC 050755

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night.

...Coastal WA/OR...
A shortwave trough should reach the coastal Pacific Northwest by
midday/early afternoon Wednesday, before amplifying inland into the
Great Basin by 12Z Thursday. Cold mid-level temperatures of -30 to
-35 C at 500 mb in conjunction with onshore low-level flow should
yield scant surface-based buoyancy along the immediate coast by late
morning. Sporadic lightning flashes are possible through the
afternoon amid widely scattered low-topped convection near and in
the wake of trough passage.

...West TX to the Ozarks...
In response to the aforementioned amplifying upper trough, a
low-latitude shortwave trough will accelerate east-northeast from
west of Baja CA. How far downstream this trough reaches by 12Z
Thursday remains uncertain. The 00Z EC-AIFS has been quite
consistent with a slower ejection and appears more reasonable given
typical guidance biases. It is an outlier along with the 00Z GFS in
holding the trough over northwest Mexico, while the majority of
guidance has it ejecting onto the southern High Plains. This will
impact the initial amplitude of cyclogenesis over the OK/northern TX
Panhandles vicinity through Wednesday night.

Modified low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will
initially be modest beneath an elevated mixed layer. Forecast
soundings also suggest weak lapse rates with nearly saturated
upper-level profiles well downstream of the low-latitude trough. As
such, elevated buoyancy should increase but remain weak. Guidance
also has pronounced differences in the degree of convective
development prior to 12Z Thursday, likely related to the degree of
preceding MUCIN and timing of strengthening large-scale ascent.
Opted to broadly aligned with the low 03Z SREF calibrated
thunderstorm probabilities pending potentially greater guidance
consistency in later outlooks.

..Grams.. 01/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 051930
SWODY3
SPC AC 051929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
An upper low currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to
progress eastward into the southern Plains by late Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. Gradual low-level moistening will occur
through the day across TX and into OK as low-level flow strengthens
in response to steady cyclogenesis across the Plains. Additionally,
ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave will promote adequate destabilization for MUCAPE values of around 500 J/kg between 06-12
UTC across northern TX into OK and the Ozarks. While buoyancy
profiles will most likely remain too limited for substantially deep
convection, strengthening wind profiles may support transient
organized storms overnight across northern TX into parts of OK.
Confidence remains too limited at this time to introduce risk
probabilities, but highlights may be needed if new guidance trends
towards the more aggressive extended-range RRFS solutions.

...WA/OR Coast...
Strong ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with an
approaching upper trough will once again support adequate buoyancy
for isolated thunderstorms off and along the coast of the Pacific
Northwest through the day Wednesday. Lifted indices on the order of
-1 to -2 C suggest that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too
limited for strong convection and any appreciable severe threat.

..Moore.. 01/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 060827
SWODY3
SPC AC 060826

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas
and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi
Valley.

...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...

Guidance still varies somewhat regarding the timing and strength of
the primary synoptic features across the CONUS on Thursday. In
general, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to eject
quickly northeastward from the southern Plains towards the Great
Lakes on Thursday, as an upstream shortwave trough moves from the
Southwest toward the southern Rockies. In conjunction with the lead
shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to move from the
south-central Plains northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes by
the end of the period.

Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across
parts of OK/KS into the Ozarks, in association with the ejecting
shortwave. Despite the meager instability, some organized convection
may be ongoing Thursday morning, given the strength of the forcing
and deep-layer flow/shear. Gusty and locally damaging winds could
accompany any organized line segments as they approach parts of the
OH Valley, though lingering low-level stability will tend to limit
the magnitude of the threat, especially with northeast extent.

In the wake of the ejecting shortwave and early-day convection, a
relatively large and strongly sheared warm sector will extend from
the Gulf Coast into the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley.
However, with generally poor lapse rates, weak to modest buoyancy,
and a tendency for the strongest ascent to lift away from the warm
sector with time, organized-severe potential during the afternoon
and evening is uncertain.

There is a modest signal in ECMWF/GFS and related ensemble guidance
for storm development Thursday evening/night from near the ArkLaTex
into the lower OH Valley, with the deterministic ECMWF also
depicting robust elevated convection into parts of central TX late
in the period. If storms can mature within the favorably sheared
environment, then some threat for locally damaging wind, isolated
hail, and/or a tornado could evolve later in the period. A rather
conditional Marginal Risk has been included where ensemble and
calibrated guidance depicts at least a low-probability severe threat
through the period.

..Dean.. 01/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 061927
SWODY3
SPC AC 061926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas
and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi
Valley.

...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...

Guidance has come into relatively better agreement with the timing
and overall evolution of a compact midlevel impulse and accompanying
surface low ejecting northeastward from the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes through the period. This will result in the
development of an expansive warm sector characterized by partially
modified Gulf moisture and somewhat cool surface temperatures. Given poor/modest lapse rates, buoyancy will remain fairly limited --
especially with northward extent. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer
flow/shear will overspread the warm sector, resulting in an
expansive area of conditional severe potential.

Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms with a risk of marginally
severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be spreading
east-northeastward from the southern Plains into the lower/middle MS
Valley at the start of the period. There will be some potential for
this activity to become surface-based and intensify as it tracks east-northeastward though the afternoon, though this will be largely
dependent on the degree of surface heating in the warm sector. If
storms can root at the surface, a mesoscale corridor of higher
severe potential will be possible -- posing a risk of severe wind
gusts and perhaps a tornado.

Thunderstorms will generally spread northeastward toward the lower
OH Valley in tandem with the surface low through the day, and severe
potential becomes more uncertain with northward extent (given the
low CAPE/high shear parameter space). A small northward expansion of
severe probabilities was made where near-surface-based storms will
be possible amid strengthening low-level flow/shear, and depending
on destabilization, further expansions will be possible.

..Weinman.. 01/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 070831
SWODY3
SPC AC 070830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday
from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and
Southeast.

...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH
Valleys...
Within a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, an initial ejecting shortwave is forecast to
move from the Great Lakes toward northern New England. Upstream of
this system, two shortwaves (one initially over the southern Rockies
and the other over the Canadian Prairies) will progress eastward and potentially begin to phase, though some guidance spread remains
regarding the details. As this occurs, a surface low will develop
and gradually deepen as it moves from the southern Plains toward the
lower Ohio Valley.

Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F)
will already be in place within the warm sector of this developing
cyclone. A reservoir of moderate buoyancy is forecast to reside from
south/east TX into LA, with somewhat weaker buoyancy farther north
and east, where relatively widespread convection will result in
weaker lapse rates and muted diurnal heating. Deep-layer shear will
remain strong through the period, and a low-level jet is expected to
develop by late afternoon and intensify through the evening, in
response to the approaching shortwave trough and surface low.

Details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, with
multiple rounds of convection possible across much of the warm
sector. Some severe threat could develop through the morning and
into the afternoon, with guidance suggesting an increasing threat
from late afternoon into Friday night, in association with
increasing large-scale ascent and the strengthening low-level jet.
The moist and strongly sheared environment will support potential
for supercells and organized clusters, with an attendant threat of
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some hail will also be possible,
especially within the southwest portion of the primary threat area,
where somewhat stronger buoyancy is expected to be in place.

..Dean.. 01/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 071914
SWODY3
SPC AC 071913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MS
VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from the lower
Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.

...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH Valleys...
In the wake of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and related surface
low departing the Great Lakes region, a front will extend from the
surface low southwestward along the lower/middle OH Valley into the
Arklatex through the first half of the period. During this time,
broad low-level warm advection amid a relatively moist air mass
ahead of the front will support training thunderstorms beneath a
belt of strong, front-parallel midlevel southwesterly flow. Despite
poor deep-layer lapse rates and limited buoyancy, around 50 kt of
effective shear may promote a couple strong to severe storms capable
of damaging winds, isolated severe hail, and possibly a brief
tornado into the afternoon hours.

In the 21-03Z time frame, midlevel height falls accompanying a broad
upstream trough will impinge on the frontal zone over the Mid-South
vicinity. In response, a frontal wave will evolve into a surface low
while tracking east-northeastward across the TN Valley during the
overnight hours. Strengthening low-level warm-advection amid a plume
of moist/uncapped air (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will yield a
quick uptick in thunderstorm coverage across the lower MS and TN
Valleys. Around 50-60 kt of effective shear and enlarging low-level
hodographs ahead of the low will conditionally favor a mix of
organized clusters and semi-discrete supercell structures -- posing
a risk of damaging winds and possibly a couple tornadoes. However,
weak buoyancy and the potential for many storm interactions increase
the overall conditionality of the tornado risk.

..Weinman.. 01/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 080829
SWODY3
SPC AC 080828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

...Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia...
An upper trough will amplify and move eastward across the eastern
CONUS on Saturday, as an embedded midlevel cyclone moves across the
Great Lakes region. A surface low initially over the TN Valley will
move towards the Mid Atlantic, as another surface low develops
farther north near the lower Great Lakes.

Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Saturday morning from
parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians vicinity.
Deep-layer flow/shear will be strong, and seasonably rich low-level
moisture will be in place ahead of an eastward-moving cold front.
Organized cells/clusters that develop during the D2/Friday period
may persist through at least the first part of the day, with a
continued threat for at least locally damaging wind, and potentially
a tornado threat where vigorous surface-based convection can
persist. Longevity of the threat with time and eastward extent
remains uncertain, with an expected tendency for weakening buoyancy
and diminishing ascent across the warm sector. Some potential for
locally damaging wind could spread into parts of the Carolinas and
Virginia before the threat diminishes as the cold front moves
through.

A Marginal Risk has been included for areas forecast to be
along/ahead of the cold front at the start of the period and
near/south of the consensus surface-low track. A Slight Risk was
considered for parts of eastern MS into AL and western GA, as a
continuation of the severe threat from late D2/Friday into Saturday
morning, but deferred to future outlooks given uncertainty regarding
the impact of widespread convection within the warm sector by the
beginning of the D3/Saturday period.

..Dean.. 01/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 081928
SWODY3
SPC AC 081927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast into parts of the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

...Southeast into the Carolinas and Virginia...
Within a swath of broad/strong midlevel southwesterly flow across
the eastern half of the CONUS, a robust midlevel jet will advance
northeastward from the lower OH Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast -- while phasing with an upstream trough and
related midlevel jet. An accompanying frontal wave/weak surface
cyclone -- initially over the TN Valley -- will track northeastward
along a remnant frontal zone toward the Northeast in tandem with the
midlevel jet.

At the start of the period, broken bands of thunderstorms will
likely be ongoing across the central Gulf Coast into the Southeast,
along/east of the frontal zone/surface wave. While buoyancy will be
somewhat limited (especially with northward extent toward northern
AL), ample boundary-layer moisture and a focused low-level jet will
continue to promote a few strong to severe storms, with a risk of
damaging gusts and a tornado. While uncertain, there appears to be a
corridor of relatively higher severe potential from parts of
south-central AL into GA, and this area continues to be monitored
for a potential upgrade.

Thunderstorms will spread east-northeastward through the day, as the
midlevel jet and surface wave track northeastward. Buoyancy will
become limited with northward extent, though the
northeastward-moving low-level jet and strong deep-layer shear will
continue to yield a risk of damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado
with any stronger storms that spread into the Carolinas and southern
VA.

..Weinman.. 01/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 090817
SWODY3
SPC AC 090816

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected to develop across the U.S. Sunday or
Sunday night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move eastward to near the eastern
Seaboard on Sunday, as northwest flow aloft becomes established
across much of the central and eastern part of the U.S. At the
surface, a large area of high pressure will settle in across the
south-central and southeastern U.S., keeping conditions relative dry
and stable over most of the nation. For this reason, thunderstorms
are not expected to develop over the continental U.S. Sunday and
Sunday night.

..Broyles.. 01/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 091912
SWODY3
SPC AC 091911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Sunday.

...Discussion...
An amplified midlevel trough will advance eastward across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the period. Strong forcing for
ascent and steepening deep-layer lapse rates preceding the trough
could result in an isolated lightning flash with low-topped
convection overspreading the Mid-Atlantic. However, low confidence
in this scenario and expected limited coverage precludes a TSTM area
at this time. Upstream, an expansive cool/dry air mass will limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 01/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 100826
SWODY3
SPC AC 100825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday and Monday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will remain over the eastern U.S.
on Monday, as a mid-level shortwave trough moves southeastward into
the north-central states Monday night. At the surface, an area of
high pressure will remain anchored over the Gulf Coast states on
Monday, as a cool and dry airmass remains in place over much of the
continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorms are not expected to
develop over the nation Monday or Monday night.

..Broyles.. 01/10/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 101926
SWODY3
SPC AC 101925

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Dry and stable conditions will generally preclude thunderstorm
development across the CONUS on Monday. A vigorous mid/upper
shortwave trough is forecast to move southeast across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther south, an upper low is forecast to
move northeast across northern Mexico, and begin to influence parts
of southwest TX. Weak convective showers may accompany both of
these systems, but very meager and shallow elevated buoyancy is
expected to limit lightning potential.

..Dean.. 01/10/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 110830
SWODY3
SPC AC 110829

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast to develop across the U.S. on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the
east-central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated surface low deepens
across the Great Lakes. In response, a cold front will move
southeastward across the central U.S. This will reinforce cold and
dry conditions over most of the nation. For this reason,
thunderstorm development is not expected over the continental U.S.
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

..Broyles.. 01/11/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 111852
SWODY3
SPC AC 111851

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Tuesday. A large-scale
upper trough is forecast to amplify across the central/eastern
CONUS. An embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low are
forecast to move across the Great Lakes vicinity, while a weak upper
low initially near southwest TX is expected to evolve into a
low-amplitude shortwave trough and move eastward across the Gulf
Coast region.

A persistent surface ridge over the Gulf will inhibit moisture
return and destabilization within the warm sector of the surface low
moving across the Great Lakes. Modest low-level moisture and weak
buoyancy may reside across parts of south FL and the Keys for much
of the period. However, weak forcing and poor lapse rates will tend
to inhibit deep convection, with any appreciable thunderstorm
potential currently expected to remain offshore.

..Dean.. 01/11/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 120825
SWODY3
SPC AC 120825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are forecast across the U.S. on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the
east-central U.S. on Wednesday, as a cold front moves southeastward
into the Appalachians. A large area of high pressure will settle
into the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, reinforcing a cool and
dry airmass across the region. For this reason, thunderstorms are
not expected on Wednesday and Wednesday night across the continental
U.S.

..Broyles.. 01/12/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 121911
SWODY3
SPC AC 121910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough will remain in place across the central/eastern
CONUS on Wednesday. Within the large-scale trough, embedded
shortwave troughs will move through parts of the Midwest/Great
Lakes, central Gulf Coast/Southeast, and the Florida Peninsula. A
surface low initially over Quebec will move quickly northeastward,
with new surface low development expected near southern New England
later in the period, and frontal wave development possible offshore
of the Atlantic Seaboard. A reinforcing cold front will move through
much of the central/eastern CONUS through the period.

With the exception of south FL, prefrontal moisture return is
expected to be too meager for appreciable destabilization. Across
south FL, weak buoyancy may be in place Wednesday morning, but most
guidance suggests that thunderstorm potential will largely be
offshore by the start of the period (12Z Wednesday morning). Late in
the period, weak convection associated with the approaching
shortwave trough and cold front may affect parts of the FL
Peninsula, but forecast buoyancy by late Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning appears too weak/shallow for appreciable
thunderstorm potential.

..Dean.. 01/12/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 130827
SWODY3
SPC AC 130826

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Thursday and
Thursday night.

...DISCUSSION...
A large-scale upper-level trough will move eastward to the southern
Atlantic Seaboard on Thursday, as northwest flow remains in place
over much of the nation. At the surface, a large area of high
pressure will remain over the east-central U.S. As a result, dry and
cool conditions will be unfavorable for thunderstorms over the
continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.

..Broyles.. 01/13/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 131905
SWODY3
SPC AC 131904

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southern Florida and
the Keys on Thursday.

...Southern FL and the Keys...
A robust midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Southeast
into the western Atlantic during the day, while a related cold front
moves southeastward across far southern FL and the Keys. While
buoyancy will be limited, frontal convergence and at least modest
midlevel height falls should support isolated thunderstorms during
the morning and afternoon. Despite ample deep-layer shear, the weak
buoyancy should tend to limit updraft strength and related severe
potential.

..Weinman.. 01/13/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 140746
SWODY3
SPC AC 140745

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are anticipated across the US on Friday.

A large upper trough will dominate the weather across the
central/eastern United States on Day3 (Friday), with an upper ridge
along the west coast. Model guidance suggests that low-level
moisture will be quite limited,resulting in generally stable
conditions. Therefore, no thunderstorms are expected.

..Hart.. 01/14/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 141911
SWODY3
SPC AC 141910

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No thunderstorms are anticipated across the US on Friday.

...Discussion...
An expansive midlevel trough will encompass the eastern two-thirds
of the CONUS, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West.
This pattern will result in cool/dry/stable conditions, and
therefore, no thunderstorms are expected.

..Weinman.. 01/14/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 150742
SWODY3
SPC AC 150741

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.

A broad upper trough will prevail across most of the CONUS on
Saturday, with dry/stable conditions inhibiting thunderstorms in
most areas. A few afternoon storms are possible over south FL, but
weak CAPE and limited vertical shear should preclude severe storms.

..Hart.. 01/15/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 151902
SWODY3
SPC AC 151901

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Saturday.

...Southeast FL and the Keys...
A broad large-scale trough will amplify over the eastern half of the
CONUS through the period. In response, a weak warm front/surface
wave and attendant moisture will overspread southeastern FL during
the overnight hours. Related destabilization will support isolated thunderstorms along the immediate coastal areas and the Keys. Modest strengthening of low/deep-layer shear within the weak warm-advection
regime may favor an isolated strong storm or two, though the
stronger activity should generally remain offshore.

..Weinman.. 01/15/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 160706
SWODY3
SPC AC 160705

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will move across the eastern U.S. through Sunday
evening. Thereafter, broad upper troughing will persist across much
of the CONUS east of the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will
develop southeast across the FL Peninsula through afternoon.
Sufficient boundary layer moisture will be present to support weak
buoyancy. Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper
trough, and along the surface front, may support isolated
thunderstorm activity across portions of the Keys into the southeast
FL Peninsula during the morning and afternoon before the cold front
moves offshore. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/16/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 161913
SWODY3
SPC AC 161912

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Southeastern Florida...
An amplified midlevel trough will move across the eastern CONUS
through Sunday evening. The tail-end of a related cold front will
cross the southern FL Peninsula during the afternoon hours.
Along/ahead of the front, sufficient boundary-layer moisture and
buoyancy will support isolated thunderstorms before the front moves
offshore. While moderate deep-layer shear would be sufficient for a
strong storm or two along coastal areas of southeastern FL and the
Upper Keys, current thinking is that limited buoyancy and quickly
veering low-level flow will limit strong-storm potential over land
areas.

..Weinman.. 01/16/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 170746
SWODY3
SPC AC 170745

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure will spread across much of the CONUS on Monday
behind a prior cold frontal passage. Continental trajectories will
keep Gulf moisture cut-off, and a cold/stable airmass will preclude thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 01/17/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 171906
SWODY3
SPC AC 171905

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0105 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the country for
Monday. An extensive cold/dry continental air mass and building
surface high pressure over the central CONUS will promote dry
conditions for most regions east of the Rockies. Broad-scale upper
ridging will persist along the West Coast, maintaining low chances
for precipitation. A lightning flash or two appears plausible on the
eastern shores of the lower Great Lakes where cold 850-700 mb
temperatures may support mixed-phase hydrometeors within deep
lake-effect snow bands. However, this potential seems too spatially
limited and conditional to warrant broader 10% thunder probabilities
at this time.

..Moore.. 01/17/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 180713
SWODY3
SPC AC 180712

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

A shortwave embedded within broader-scale upper troughing will move
southeast across the Rockies into the Plains on Tuesday. As this
occurs, lee cyclogenesis is expected over the central High Plains.
This low will develop south/southeast into TX overnight and ensuing
low-level south/southeasterly winds will transport modest Gulf
moisture northward into portions of south TX late in the period.
Forecast soundings suggest moisture will be relatively shallow and
warmer midlevel temperatures will limit instability. While some warm
advection showers could occur over TX Tuesday night into early
Wednesday ahead of an southeastward advancing cold front,
thunderstorm potential appears low.

..Leitman.. 01/18/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 181854
SWODY3
SPC AC 181853

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Dry/stable conditions for lightning-producing convection should
persist across the CONUS through the period. The next in a series of
shortwave troughs should progress from the Canadian Rockies towards
the Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys. A weak surface cyclone should similarly
track from the northern High Plains to near Lake MI. This will
support onshore air mass modification along the TX Gulf Coast. Scant
but shallow buoyancy should reach the immediate south TX coast by
12Z Wednesday, with flimsy elevated buoyancy possible northward
across east TX. Given poor-quality thermodynamics and only weak
large-scale ascent, thunderstorm potential in TX appears negligible.

..Grams.. 01/18/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 190819
SWODY3
SPC AC 190818

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

The base of a trough oriented over the middle of the CONUS will
swing eastward across TX into the Lower MS Valley on Wednesday.
Modified Gulf moisture will be in place across the TX coastal plain
toward the Sabine Valley ahead of a surface cold front. Shallow convection/showers will be possible ahead of the front from coastal
and east TX into the Mid-South. However, instability will be very
weak inland and thunderstorm potential appears too low to include a
general thunderstorm area.

..Leitman.. 01/19/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 191918
SWODY3
SPC AC 191917

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of eastern Texas into
the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing will
generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North
America during this period. However, it appears that the southern
tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing
influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to
subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific.

Within an amplifying belt, including building mid-level ridging
across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a notable developing
mid-level low may continue to slowly dig toward the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast. It appears that this may be accompanied by initially elevated moisture return from the lower
latitude eastern Pacific, across coastal areas into the Sierra
Nevada. However, the mid-level cold core, supportive of better
boundary-layer destabilization and the development of thermodynamic
profiles potentially more conducive to thunderstorm development,
will likely remain offshore through at least this period.

Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return may continue to
overspread parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower
Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night. It appears
that weak boundary-layer destabilization, and one potential area of thunderstorm development, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of
an initial perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern
Pacific, will remain offshore of coastal areas. However, elevated
inland moistening beneath residually cold mid-level air might become
sufficient for convection occasionally becoming capable of producing
lightning by late Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

..Kerr.. 01/19/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 200746
SWODY3
SPC AC 200745

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east
toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs,
upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become
flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build
over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the
Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in
the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but
the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be
located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch
eastward toward the Mid-South.

Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated
convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front
late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK
within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is
expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further
south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be
limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude
destabilization.

..Leitman.. 01/20/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 201903
SWODY3
SPC AC 201902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the risk for a couple of thunderstorms near southern
Florida Atlantic coastal areas, potential for thunderstorms appears
minimal across much of the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a significant short wave trough emanating from
the Arctic latitudes will continue digging across and southeast of
the central Canadian/U.S. border through this period, reinforcing
broad, cold mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great
Plains through middle and northern Atlantic Seaboard. In lower
latitudes, flow is forecast to remain broadly cyclonic as far south
as the northern Gulf Basin, but with a continued slow/subtle warming
in mid-levels across much of the Gulf Coast states, downstream of a
slowly digging mid-level low offshore of the southern
California/northern Baja coast. It appears that the modest and
compact mid-level cold core of this low will remain offshore through
at least this period, as a sharp upstream ridge builds a bit further
northward through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific.

Beneath this regime, it appears that the primary frontal zone may
remain quasi-stationary across the Carolinas through northern
portions of the eastern Gulf Coast states. However, some further
southward advancement is possible across the Ark-La-Miss and central
Texas by late Thursday night, as a prominent cold surface ridge
continues to build along an axis across the Canadian Prairies
through middle and lower Missouri Valley.

Some further low-level moistening is possible to the south of this
front, off a slowly modifying Gulf and southwestern Atlantic
boundary layer. However, beneath slowly warming mid-levels, with
weak mid/upper support for convective development, the risk for
thunderstorms appears limited Thursday through Thursday night.

...Southern Florida...
A consensus of latest available model output, ranging from ECENS and
GEFS convective precipitation forecasts to NAM/Rapid Refresh
forecast soundings and NAM/RRFS convection allowing guidance,
suggests that at least minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities
may become focused during this period in the vicinity of weak
surface troughing developing near southern Florida Atlantic coastal
areas. This appears possible in response to increasing
boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, perhaps aided by
forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical
westerlies.

..Kerr.. 01/20/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 210715
SWODY3
SPC AC 210714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of Texas on Friday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough offshore southern CA and northern Baja
will quickly eject east to northwest Mexico and the Southwest on
Friday/Friday night. This will result in increasing southwesterly
mid/upper flow across the southern Plains as an arctic cold front
plunges southward across TX. Modest Gulf moisture will be in place
ahead of the front across portions of southern TX and the TX Coastal
Plain. As temperatures aloft cool and warm advection in the
midlevels overspreads the southward-advancing cold front, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. A few lightning flashes could even
accompany winter precipitation as the arctic airmass begins to
filter southward through the period. Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/21/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 211928
SWODY3
SPC AC 211927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday
through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern
Great Plains Red River Valley.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained
across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow
across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America.
Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may
begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri
Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the
leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across
the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern
Texas by late Friday night.

The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the
southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf
Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building
mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern
U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the
international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and
a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern
Pacific.

There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of
the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period.
However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing
low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow,
across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal
areas.

...Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley...
Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen
appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric
thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by
late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing
cold air. It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient
for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of
producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern
Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday.

..Kerr.. 01/21/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 220723
SWODY3
SPC AC 220722

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated weak thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday and
Saturday night across portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana and
southern Mississippi.

...Synopsis...

An arctic cold front will continue to develop southeast across the
western and central Gulf Coast vicinity on Saturday. Warm advection
atop the boundary and cooling aloft will support modest instability.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the
vicinity of the front from the Upper Texas Coast into southern LA.
Some thunderstorm potential may even accompany convective elements
within wintry precipitation to the cold side of the surface front.
Severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 01/22/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 221915
SWODY3
SPC AC 221914

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western
North America, models indicate that several short wave troughs will
gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across
the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley during this
period. This is likely to include at least a couple of merging
perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the
international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great
Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific
before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the
Great Basin. Yet another impulse, emerging from the southern
mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is generally forecast to accelerate
across Baja and the northern Mexican Plateau, into the southern
Great Plains by late Saturday night.

Preceded by the southeastward development of an expansive cold
surface ridge across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies,
as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity, the potential for
significant lee surface cyclogenesis appears low through this
period. However, latest guidance appears generally consistent
indicating modestly deepening surface troughing, accompanying
erosion of the cold air, in one corridor across the lower
Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley, and another
near/offshore of the Carolina coast by late Saturday night.
Associated destabilization still appears likely to remain elevated,
and generally weak, in nature inland of northwestern and central
Gulf coastal areas, with negligible risk for severe weather through
at least 12Z Sunday.

..Kerr.. 01/22/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 230831
SWODY3
SPC AC 230830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the
central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue
to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft
will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded
perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this
shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift
east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore
of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong
arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS.
Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability
and some potential for strong to severe storms.

...Gulf Coast...
As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing
shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface
dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into
southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface
warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the
advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening
boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day
across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA.

Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be
favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~
500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a
risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the
boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the
prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The
cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe
risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern
CONUS.

..Lyons.. 01/23/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 231917
SWODY3
SPC AC 231916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI,...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development appears possible across parts of the
eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night, accompanied by
some risk for severe weather.

...Discussion...
Within a broadly confluent regime across and east of the Rockies,
models suggest that positively tilted larger-scale mid-level
troughing may continue to consolidate while progressing across and
east of the Mississippi Valley during this period, downstream of
broad mid-level ridging within split flow developing inland of the
Pacific coast into Intermountain West. In its wake, it appears that
another notable cold surface ridge will build south-southeastward to
the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley by late Sunday night. Ahead of it, models
indicate that the remnants of a preceding Arctic intrusion will
undergo more substantive modification, but, coupled with weak inland
upper forcing, probably not enough to support significant frontal
surface cyclogenesis across the Allegheny Plateau or Southeast.

...Eastern Gulf Coast states...
Guidance currently suggests that low-level thermal and moisture
advection, supportive of weak boundary-layer destabilization, may be
confined to a narrow inland spreading corridor across southeastern
Louisiana through portions of southern/eastern Alabama and adjacent
Georgia during the day Sunday, before being undercut/cut off by a
developing cold front. It appears that this will coincide with, but
generally trail to the southwest of, a modest to weak developing
frontal wave across the Piedmont of Alabama into Georgia.

Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow overspreading the destabilizing environment will probably still contribute to shear potentially
conducive to organized convective development. This may include
sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs within the pre-cold
frontal warm advection regime. However, forecast soundings suggest
that these low-level hodographs will trend more linear, as the
initially stable boundary-layer destabilizes. So the risk for
tornadoes seems rather limited, but there may be a window for an
evolving line of storms with potential to produce strong surface
wind gusts, particularly across parts of southeastern Alabama and
the Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday
afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 01/23/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 240831
SWODY3
SPC AC 240830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing and strong cyclonic flow aloft will shift
southward over the US before gradually moving offshore Monday. A
second trough is expected to move south out of Canada into the Great
Lakes as it also intensifies. The mid-level flow pattern is forecast
to continue to amplify with troughing persisting over the eastern
US. In turn, ridging is forecast to build over the central and
western portions of the country with increasingly strong
northwesterly flow.

At the surface, a robust and widespread Arctic air mass with strong
high pressure will dominate the lower 48 as a cold front moves
offshore into the Atlantic and down the FL Peninsula. Widespread
winter weather and cold temperatures will largely preclude robust
inland surface moisture outside of coastal south FL. However, weak
lapse rates and only glancing ascent suggests thunderstorm potential
here is low. Thus, thunderstorms and severe weather appear unlikely
over the US on Monday.

..Lyons.. 01/24/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 241859
SWODY3
SPC AC 241858

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic on Monday, resulting
in widespread surface high pressure and an accompanying polar
airmass to overspread the CONUS, diminishing thunderstorm potential.
A surface cold front will sweep across the central and southern FL
Peninsula Monday morning and afternoon. While a thunderstorm or two
cannot be ruled, deep-layer ascent will remain primarily north of
the state, which will limit thunderstorm development, warranting the withholding of thunderstorm probabilities this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 250817
SWODY3
SPC AC 250816

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughing over the eastern US will be reinforced by
several smaller-scale perturbations emanating from southern Canada
and the Rockies. Western US ridging will also persist ahead of a
weak Pacific trough favoring northwesterly flow over the central
portions of the country. An expansive Arctic air mass with surface
high pressure will dominate much of the continent. Offshore flow
will limit inland moisture return and destabilization negating
thunderstorm potential Tuesday.

..Lyons.. 01/25/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 251915
SWODY3
SPC AC 251913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level troughing in the East and ridging in the West will be
maintained on Tuesday. This pattern will reinforce cold, dry, and
stable surface conditions across the CONUS. Thunderstorm development
is unlikely.

..Wendt.. 01/25/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 260829
SWODY3
SPC AC 260828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Persistent eastern US troughing will gradually consolidate with
pronounced northwesterly flow aloft developing over central and
eastern CONUS. Ridging to the west will further enhanced surface
high pressure over the Midwest. With Arctic air and widespread snow
cover in place, cool and dry surface conditions will negate
thunderstorm potential.

..Lyons.. 01/26/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 261841
SWODY3
SPC AC 261840

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure will persist beneath broad upper
troughing/northwest flow across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS
on Wednesday. This will maintain the modified arctic airmass across
much of the country. With a large area of snow and ice cover, cold,
dry and stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 01/26/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 270832
SWODY3
SPC AC 270831

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday.

...Synopsis...
Broad-scale troughing will continue across the eastern half of the
US as the primary upper trough moves off the East Coast into early
Friday. At the same time several shortwave perturbations, emanating
from southern Canada and the central Rockies respectively, will
begin to converge and strengthen over the central US. In the wake of
these systems, ridging will build over the West supporting continued
strong northwesterly flow aloft. A cold front and Arctic high
pressure will move south forcing offshore flow over the CONUS. This
will again negate thunderstorm potential through the forecast
period.

..Lyons.. 01/27/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 271859
SWODY3
SPC AC 271858

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Thursday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will migrate from the central/southern
Plains to the Southeast on Thursday. As this occurs, surface low
pressure will move from OK to the Lower MS Valley. Meanwhile, a
trailing cold front will surge southward across OK/TX. Southerly
low-level flow ahead of the surface low and cold front will allow
for modest Gulf moisture to work northward toward South TX and the
lower/middle TX Coast, though more substantial moisture will remain
offshore. Overall, thunderstorm chances are expected to be low, with
meager instability and warmer 850-700 mb temperatures forecast. Any thunderstorm potential is expected to remain offshore over the
western Gulf.

..Leitman.. 01/27/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 280831
SWODY3
SPC AC 280830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely Friday.

...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow over the US will continue to amplify as persistent
eastern troughing is bolstered by the arrival of a northern stream
shortwave from Canada and a deepening southern stream wave over the
Gulf Coast. As these systems merge, a strong upper low is excepted
to develop across the Southern US deepening a surface low over the
eastern Gulf and western Atlantic into early Saturday. At the same
time, strong ridging aloft will build over the West supporting
increasingly strong northwesterly flow. This will allow a strong
cold front and Arctic high pressure to move out of southern Canada
reinforcing offshore flow over the lower 48. As such, inland
moisture return and the potential for thunderstorms appears
unlikely.

..Lyons.. 01/28/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 281820
SWODY3
SPC AC 281819

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Friday through Friday
night appear less than 10 percent.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that large-scale mid-level ridging will generally be
maintained across the U.S. Pacific coast through Rockies, with short
wave ridging also building along the British Columbia coast, in the
wake of a short wave trough progressing inland across the Canadian
and adjacent northern U.S. Rockies. Precipitation accompanying an
associated baroclinic zone may linger into Friday across the Pacific
Northwest, with perhaps an upstream warm frontal band also
approaching coastal Washington by late Friday night. However,
forecast soundings suggest that thermodynamic profiles will not
become sufficiently unstable to support an appreciable risk for
thunderstorm activity.

Downstream, several short wave perturbations, including one vigorous
impulse emerging from the Hudson Bay vicinity, are forecast to
consolidate into amplifying, positively tilted large-scale troughing
across much of the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Basin through
southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Friday night. There remains
notable spread concerning associated surface cyclogenesis, but it
appears that this will remain weak across the eastern Gulf and
adjacent Southeast, before undergoing notable strengthening offshore
of the southern/mid Atlantic coast after 12Z Saturday. Along and
south of a strengthening frontal zone, a deepening moist
boundary-layer may become conditionally unstable across parts of the
Florida Keys and southeastern Florida Peninsula by Friday. However,
forecast soundings indicate that relatively warm and dry air in
mid/upper levels will tend to suppress thunderstorm development.

..Kerr.. 01/28/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 290829
SWODY3
SPC AC 290828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are unlikely Saturday.

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified flow pattern will persist across the CONUS
Saturday with a strong upper trough intensifying over the Southeast
and western Atlantic. As the trough matures, a deep surface low will
develop and lift northeastward along the Atlantic seaboard. An
associated cold front will move out to sea with offshore flow in its
wake as ridging and high pressure build across the western and
central US. This will suppress substantial inland moisture return
and reinforce a cold Arctic air mass over much of the continent. In
turn, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS, outside of the
offshore waters of far south FL and the Carolina Outer Banks.

..Lyons.. 01/29/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 291903
SWODY3
SPC AC 291902

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Saturday through
Saturday night appear less than 10 percent.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that short waves within split flow across the eastern
Pacific into western North America will remain progressive Saturday
through Saturday night. This includes a large and vigorous, but
slowly weakening, mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone
within the primary belt of westerlies, which are forecast to
approach coastal areas from Alaska into the Pacific Northwest.

While colder mid-level temperatures, potentially supportive of weak boundary-layer destabilization, are forecast to remain offshore, the
leading edge of stronger mid-level height falls may begin spreading
inland of the Pacific coast during the latter half of the period.
It appears an evolving mid-level high in the southern mid-latitudes
will be forced inland across southern California into the southern
Great Basin, with a trailing cyclonic circulation approaching
northern Baja. However, models indicate that amplified downstream
mid-level ridging will be maintained through at least this period
across the Canadian Rockies and adjacent Prairies into the northern
U.S. Intermountain Region and Rockies.

Digging short waves to the lee of this ridge will reinforce
large-scale troughing east of the Rockies through the U.S. Atlantic
Seaboard. However, the most prominent perturbation within this
regime is forecast to pivot across and offshore of the southern
Atlantic Seaboard. As it does, it appears that a broad offshore
surface low will undergo notable deepening.

While considerable spread remains evident in association with
developments across and offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard, it
appears that this may include at least a couple of areas of
significant embedded cyclogenesis by late Saturday night. One
cyclone may continue to deepen along a frontal zone northeast of the
Bahamas, across and north/northeast of the Bermuda vicinity, with
higher moisture content generally confined to areas along and
southeast of this track.

Along a stronger baroclinic zone closer to the Carolina coast, it
appears that a much more rapidly deepening and stronger, but
similarly compact, cyclone may develop to the east of the coastal
waters. However, within a cooler/drier environment, models suggest
that any destabilization potentially supportive of thunderstorm
development may be confined to areas well offshore, near the Gulf
Stream.

..Kerr.. 01/29/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 300832
SWODY3
SPC AC 300831

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday
night.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move from near the southern Atlantic
Seaboard into the western Atlantic on Sunday, as northwesterly
mid-level flow remains across much of the nation. At the surface,
dry and cool conditions will remain over much of the U.S., being
unfavorable for thunderstorm development.

..Broyles.. 01/30/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 301846
SWODY3
SPC AC 301845

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. on Sunday or Sunday
night.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will continue to migrate across the eastern U.S. on
Sunday. Meanwhile, an intense coastal low off the NC coast will lift
northeast across the northwest Atlantic, offshore from the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts. Further west, an upper ridge over
the western states will deamplify as it spreads into the Plains.
General surface high pressure will remain in place across portions
of the Rockies, the Mid/Lower MS Valley and the Southeast. This will
keep Gulf moisture offshore as another cold front passage delves
well south into the Gulf Basin. As a result, a mostly dry and stable
airmass will prevail across the CONUS, precluding thunderstorm
activity.

..Leitman.. 01/30/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 310805
SWODY3
SPC AC 310804

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday
night.

...Discussion...
A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the
southern Plains through the period, while a related surface low and
cold front move into the region. In response, weakly modified Gulf
moisture will spread northward ahead of the front, potentially
yielding weak buoyancy in the Arklatex vicinity by the end of the
period. However, the limited moisture/buoyancy and antecedent static
stability should limit thunderstorm potential.

..Weinman.. 01/31/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 311857
SWODY3
SPC AC 311856

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. on Monday or Monday
night.

...Synopsis...
Generally dry and stable conditions are expected to limit
thunderstorm potential across the CONUS on Monday. Multiple midlevel
shortwave troughs will move across parts of the Great Plains and
Southwest, as they reinforce a large-scale trough covering much of
the central/eastern CONUS. In response to these shortwave troughs, a
weak surface low is forecast to develop across the southern High
Plains. Modest low-level moisture return (with dewpoints in the 50s
F) will commence across parts of south and central TX, but this
moisture is expected to remain insufficient for appreciable
surface-based destabilization. Weak elevated buoyancy may develop
late in the period from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, but there
is currently little to no signal for deep convection prior to the
end of the forecast period.

..Dean.. 01/31/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 010808
SWODY3
SPC AC 010807

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A positively tilted midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward
from the central Plains/middle MS Valley into the eastern U.S.
through the period. At the same time, a weak surface low will move
eastward across the TN Valley, while a southwestward-extending cold
front overspreads east TX and the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the
front, initially shallow/elevated convection should gradually deepen
as the PBL destabilizes across east TX and LA during the afternoon.
While isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
along/ahead of the southeastward-moving front, weak buoyancy and
only modest deep-layer shear should limit the severe risk --
especially given weak large-scale ascent over the warm sector.

..Weinman.. 02/01/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 011850
SWODY3
SPC AC 011849

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

...East TX into the lower MS Valley...
A weak surface low is forecast to move across parts of the lower MS
Valley into parts of the TN/lower OH Valleys on Tuesday, as a
trailing cold front moves through parts of east TX into the ArkLaTex
and Mid-South. Modest low-level moisture return (dewpoints in the
50s to around 60 F) will spread from east TX into northern LA and
southwest MS ahead of the front, though buoyancy is expected to
remain weak, with MLCAPE generally remaining below 500 J/kg.
Early-day convection that develops within a low-level warm advection
regime may gradually deepen through the day, with isolated weak
thunderstorms becoming possible. Additional isolated afternoon storm development cannot be ruled out near the front across east TX,
though forcing is expected to remain weak in this area. The weak
buoyancy and generally limited ascent across the warm sector are
currently expected to limit severe potential.

..Dean.. 02/01/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 020827
SWODY3
SPC AC 020826

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday night.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the eastern half
of the CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough will advance
southeastward across the Southeast into the northern Gulf. In
response, an accompanying cold front will move east-southeastward
across the FL Panhandle and vicinity. Here, weak/shallow buoyancy
may support an isolated lightning flash with convection along the
front during the morning and afternoon, though most of this activity
should remain offshore.

..Weinman.. 02/02/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 021843
SWODY3
SPC AC 021842

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A large-scale, positive-tilt upper trough will cover much of the central/eastern CONUS on Wednesday. One embedded shortwave trough is
forecast to move across parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coast
vicinity, while another drops southward across the southern Plains.
Weak convection will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning near a cold
front from the FL Panhandle into parts of GA. This convection may
continue through the day across parts of SC/GA and north FL, as the
front advances southeastward. Buoyancy is expected to be quite weak,
and forecast soundings suggest that convection will generally be too
weak and low-topped for thunderstorm development. While very
isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out, coverage currently
appears too limited for any general thunderstorm areas.

..Dean.. 02/02/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 030818
SWODY3
SPC AC 030817

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A midlevel trough will move from the eastern U.S. into the western
Atlantic, while an amplified upper ridge persists along the Rockies.
This will yield dry/stable conditions and limit thunderstorm
potential across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 02/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 031851
SWODY3
SPC AC 031850

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday or Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across the CONUS through the period. Low-topped convection may
accompany the trailing portion of a cold front pushing through
central to south FL on Thursday morning into early afternoon. A
dearth of instability is expected to preclude thunder potential over
the peninsula, with any thunderstorm development limited to the Gulf
Stream east of the Southeast Atlantic Coast.

..Grams.. 02/03/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 040811
SWODY3
SPC AC 040810

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday and Friday night.

...Discussion...
Along the western periphery of an amplified upper ridge over the
Rockies, a weak, negative-tilt midlevel trough will advance
northward across the southern Great Basin. While an isolated
lightning flash cannot be entirely ruled out with convection
accompanying this feature, updrafts should generally be too
weak/shallow for an appreciable thunderstorm risk.

..Weinman.. 02/04/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 041843
SWODY3
SPC AC 041843

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential generally appears low on Friday and Friday
night.

...Southwest...
Multiple minor shortwave impulses should gradually evolve within a
broad, low-amplitude trough shifting inland from the West Coast.
Moisture for lightning-producing appears rather limited inland of
coastal southern CA, yielding insufficient buoyancy for thunderstorm probabilities at or above 10 percent over the Mojave Desert and
Lower CO Valley. Still, most 12Z guidance indicates late-day
convective potential over the western Transverse Ranges. Scant
buoyancy amid 500-mb temperatures near -22 C, along with
orographically augmented weak ascent, might foster a couple
thunderstorms.

..Grams.. 02/04/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 050807
SWODY3
SPC AC 050806

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.

...Discussion...
A dry and stable air mass encompassing most of the CONUS will
preclude thunderstorms on Saturday and Saturday night.

..Weinman.. 02/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 051839
SWODY3
SPC AC 051838

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday or Saturday night.

...AZ/NM...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough/mid-level low west of northern Baja
CA should drift east-southeast, approaching the peninsula through
Saturday night. A plume of eastern Pacific mid-level moisture should
spread into parts of eastern AZ and NM. However, this will likely be accompanied by weak mid-level lapse rates, inhibiting elevated
MUCAPE. Marginal boundary-layer moisture might yield scant buoyancy
into southeast AZ by peak heating Saturday. But with limited
large-scale ascent, thunderstorm potential seems negligible.

..Grams.. 02/05/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 060656
SWODY3
SPC AC 060655

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Arizona/New Mexico...

An upper shortwave trough within southern stream flow will move
across northern Mexico on Sunday. Increasing midlevel moisture
across southern AZ/NM, and cooling in the 500-700 mb layer will
support weak elevated instability from late morning through early
evening. This could result in isolated weak thunderstorms over parts
of southern AZ/NM within the cold core of the upper trough/low. Weak instability and relatively warm surface to 700 mb temperatures will
preclude severe potential.

..Leitman.. 02/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 061930
SWODY3
SPC AC 061929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
A large ridge across the western CONUS will suppress through the
period on Sunday as a jet streak extends from the Pacific into the
northern Rockies. Cooling air aloft across the Pacific Northwest may
lead to sufficiently deep instability for some lightning. At this
time, expect most of the lightning to remain offshore. Therefore, no
thunder area has been added to the coastal areas at this time.

Beneath the larger ridge, an upper low will move slowly east across
northern Mexico. Surface heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft
will result in modest instability across southeast Arizona into far
southwest New Mexico. Forcing will remain relatively weak, but the
uncapped environment, combined with some terrain influences may lead
to isolated thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon.

..Bentley.. 02/06/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 070740
SWODY3
SPC AC 070739

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low/trough will move across northern Mexico on Monday,
approaching the Rio Grand Valley in western TX by early Tuesday.
Downstream, upper riding is forecast across the Gulf Basin. As a
surface lee trough develops across the central/southern Plains,
southerly low-level flow will allow for modified Gulf moisture to
spread across southern/southeastern portions of TX toward the Lower
MS Valley (dewpoints in the 40s-50s F). Some scant elevated
instability may develop across the TX Big Bend vicinity during the
afternoon into evening as meager midlevel cooling occurs in
proximity to the upper trough over Mexico. However, thunderstorm
potential appears low given poor moisture further west across TX and
warm 850-700 mb temperatures.

..Leitman.. 02/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 071902
SWODY3
SPC AC 071901

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
Cool air aloft will remain across the Pacific Northwest, but
shortwave ridging aloft should limit overall thunderstorm potential.
An upper-level low across northern Mexico will drift slowly east
beneath a developing zonal pattern across the CONUS. Temperatures
aloft will start to warm across southern Arizona and New Mexico.
Therefore, expect the majority of the thunderstorm activity with
this upper low to remain south of the border, across northern
Mexico.

..Bentley.. 02/07/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 080645
SWODY3
SPC AC 080644

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will move east from northern Mexico toward central/eastern TX on Tuesday. This will result in increasing west/southwesterly flow across the southern Plains toward the TN
Valley. At the surface, low pressure over OK will meander eastward
and weaken. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow ahead of the low
will transport modest Gulf moisture north across eastern TX toward
the Lower MS Valley vicinity. Moistening thermodynamic profiles and
midlevel cooling ahead of the trough will support weak elevated
instability across far western TX. Isolated thunderstorms may
develop northeast from northern Mexico into western TX. This
activity is not expected to be severe.

Overnight, warm advection will result in elevated convection ahead
of a southward sagging cold front from the southern Ozarks toward
the TN Valley. While west/southwesterly flow will allow for
moistening in the midlevels, cooling aloft will be modest and how
much destabilization may occur is uncertain. A few elevated
thunderstorms could be possible late in the period over parts of the
Mid-South and/or TN Valley, but confidence in 10 percent coverage is
low, precluding a general thunder delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 081843
SWODY3
SPC AC 081842

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
The mid-level pattern across the CONUS will feature 3 mid-level
troughs on Wednesday, one over the Great Lakes, another near far
West Texas and another approaching the California coast. Within this
pattern, a broad region of southerly flow across the southern CONUS
will lead to surface warming/moistening.

Cooling temperatures aloft combined with low-level moistening will
lead to weak instability across parts of West Texas on Tuesday.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as the mid-level trough
accelerates and moves northeast.

On the northern periphery of low-level moisture return, likely
somewhere near Tennessee on Tuesday evening, a warm front will
become better defined. Along and north of this front, some elevated
convection may develop within a region of weak isentropic ascent.
Forecast soundings suggest limited lighting potential at this time.

Cooling temperatures aloft and northward transport of central
Pacific surface moisture may lead to some weak instability along the
central California coast Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, particularly as the primary
trough and cool air aloft moves overhead around 00Z Wednesday.

..Bentley.. 02/08/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 090744
SWODY3
SPC AC 090743

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper level ridge will develop east from the Rockies into the
Plains on Wednesday, while a shortwave trough weakens as it moves
from TX to over the Gulf. Thunderstorm potential appears low given a
generally stable airmass across the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS.
Meanwhile, a large-scale upper trough will overspread the western
U.S. Cooling aloft and midlevel moistening may be sufficient for a
couple of lightning flashes across the Great Basin vicinity as the
upper trough impinges on the region, but overall thunderstorm
potential is expected to be minimal.

..Leitman.. 02/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 091845
SWODY3
SPC AC 091844

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.

...Discussion...
An amplifying ridge across the central CONUS and building surface
high pressure east of the Rockies will limit thunderstorm potential
on Wednesday. Some lingering isolated thunderstorms will be possible
along the central California coast on Wednesday morning, beneath the
upper low. However, once it moves inland, it appears
moisture/instability will be too limited for a sustained
thunderstorm threat.

..Bentley.. 02/09/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 100736
SWODY3
SPC AC 100734

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

Upper level ridging will persist across central portions of the
CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, northwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the eastern states and an upper trough will move across
CA toward northwest Mexico. Lee low development is forecast across
the central/southern High Plains, supporting southerly low-level
flow across the western Gulf. Modest moisture will spread across
parts of the south-central U.S. in response, mainly after 00z.
However, upper ridging and surface high pressure across most of the
rest of the CONUS will preclude thunderstorm activity as stable
conditions prevail.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)

ACUS03 KWNS 101925
SWODY3
SPC AC 101924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Discussion...
A mid-level ridge will build across the southwest into the southern
Plains on Thursday. To the northeast of this ridge, surface high
pressure will build across the Midwest. The combination of these
stabilizing factors, in addition to low-level moisture mostly
suppressed into the Gulf, will limit the thunderstorm threat on
Thursday.

..Bentley.. 02/10/2026

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)