ACUS11 KWNS 010123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010123=20
TXZ000-010400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0630
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0823 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwestern and south-central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 010123Z - 010400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A localized wind and large hail threat will be possible
through late this evening as supercells move out of Mexico across
the Rio Grande.

DISCUSSION...Storms are noted to be occasionally intense on
satellite and radar across the eastern Sierra Madre in Mexico this
evening. Hi-res CAM guidance suggests that a few of these storms may
persist and move across the Rio Grande into the Edwards Plateau
region and perhaps portions of south-central Texas. The air mass
across southern Texas is moderately unstable with strong deep layer
shear ahead of the ejecting wave to the west across Baja California.
Storms would likely be elevated in nature, given diurnal inversion
layer, with the main hazards being large hail and strong to severe
wind. Given some uncertainty in thunderstorm maintenance and the
localized nature of this threat, a watch remains uncertain. Trends
will be monitored through the evening.

..Thornton/Hart.. 05/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-JwSZ8WTpQ29J5roS2hAUrMhu4fQosw6rM7JjydRE5yOUzfgxqvSWTmqNs3nd-fZJwvav3K5H= sxAPElyLDc1eaOaXFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28480052 28609975 28609861 28119815 27789836 27509875
27409958 27449973 28480052=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)