ACUS11 KWNS 011549
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011549=20
TXZ000-011745-

Mesoscale Discussion 0632
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Areas affected...south-central Texas to upper Texas Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011549Z - 011745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail (1.0-1.5"
in diameter) will be possible with training, elevated thunderstorms
from late morning into this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch
is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a vigorous, short-wave trough moving through
far west TX, clusters of elevated thunderstorms are ongoing from
portions of the Edwards Plateau east into the TX coastal plain. Warm
advection within the 2-4-km layer (per regional VWPs) coupled with
increased DCVA downstream from the approaching trough are likely to
sustain clusters of thunderstorms within the same general corridor
through this afternoon.

12z observed soundings and more recent, RAP-based sounding data
indicate that poor mid-level lapse rates at the latitude of the
ongoing storms are limiting parcel buoyancy despite a moist,
low-level air mass, with MUCAPE estimated in the 500 to perhaps 1000
J/kg range. However, deep-layer shear remains strong across the
discussion area, which is contributing to some observed, mid-level
rotation in the strongest storms. As such, the potential will exist
for isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail (1.0-1.5" in
diameter) with any more sustained, supercell structures. A locally
strong wind gust or two cannot be ruled out with any more intense
downdrafts that can penetrate the stable, near-surface layer.

Given the expected limited areal coverage and marginal nature of the
severe weather threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not currently
expected.

..Mead.. 05/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7cIV06budMh10pjOEGpDcMvIb1S7-nIbONUBRYALzXh8yP6QsufOpgEebFtGQNFLwoFBGRuIP= vVHXb3pK8eoK2zIoW8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28440047 29240085 29959663 30139525 29949457 29399436
29059465 28509551 28269677 28099787 27929994 28440047=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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