ACUS11 KWNS 011708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011707=20
LAZ000-011900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0633
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana into extreme
southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011707Z - 011900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across
much of southern Louisiana. A couple of stronger storms may bring
some potential for isolated severe hazards, including marginally
severe hail, severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado, to portions of southeastern Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts ongoing
thunderstorms along/south of the Louisiana coastline, with a
stronger core currently noted south of Vermilion Parish, ahead of a
subtle (and potentially convectively-enhanced) mid-level
perturbation analyzed over eastern Texas. This convection is located
in close proximity to the analyzed location of a surface stationary
front, with latest mesoanalysis depicting 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE south
of this boundary, with little buoyancy to its north. Strong
mid/upper level flow (60+ kts at 5 km AGL per the HDC VWP) and
effective bulk shear of 60+ kts will support the potential for
supercell structures, with Bunker's motion favoring right-moving
supercell tracks along/parallel to the surface boundary. While weak
available buoyancy and marginal mid-level lapse rates (evident in
the 12z LIX observed sounding) are likely to limit the overall
severe potential, isolated marginally severe hail and strong wind
gusts (likely within the 40-50 mph range) are possible with stronger
cores that come onshore and/or persist on the cool side of the
boundary.

A brief tornado/waterspout may also be possible, especially along
and south of the surface boundary where organized storms may better
realize surface-based buoyancy. A gradual strengthening of low-level
southerly flow is anticipated with time later this afternoon/evening
ahead of a developing surface cyclone, and this should promote at
least some increase in low-level hodograph curvature and associated
tornado risk with time. Despite this, low-level shear is forecast to
remain modest at best. When coupled with the aforementioned marginally-favorable thermodynamic environment, this is expected to
limit the overall severe threat. Trends will continue to be
monitored, but watch issuance is not expected at this time.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 05/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8NHQGseCCWJ1XTpkheogTwIDpmCWSffv76G03E06pXAgFV6BLyWpWGqB3fmFBvhJBxNN3jPER= OeCSKVDDQ3wkxF_52M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29169149 29299180 29499185 29769123 29969031 30088919
30058873 29938856 29058897 28868921 28858976 29009074
29169149=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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