ACUS11 KWNS 021212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021212=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-021345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0635
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 AM CDT Sat May 02 2026

Areas affected...Parts of north FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021212Z - 021345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in severe potential is expected through the
morning.

DISCUSSION...An extensive band of thunderstorms is ongoing this
morning from the northern Gulf into the FL Big Bend region. This
area of storms is oriented roughly parallel to a cold front that
will move southeastward through the day, as a midlevel shortwave
trough moves quickly eastward across GA/SC and north FL. Storms
affecting the Big Bend have been elevated thus far, though richer
moisture and stronger buoyancy will spread northeastward across
north FL, in association with a warm front and increasing low-level southwesterly flow.=20

Strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized storm
structures, including supercells and small bowing segments. If
ongoing convection can become surface-based as it moves across north
FL, an increase in the wind-damage and brief tornado threat will be
possible. However, ongoing storms may outpace more favorable diurnal heating/destabilization, resulting in uncertainty regarding the
magnitude and coverage of the severe threat. Watch issuance is
possible if short-term trends support maintenance of organized
convection through the morning across parts of north FL.

..Dean/Mosier.. 05/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-jiH1l3vJmC_LOQYgq5TVdp9JCA4ziPhLPKwu0LR0zRQdtnrPsUbEU500D-YXyIGMm5KbVW4l= w-krT4n-hO6TWWDYVI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON 29848367 30048374 30188333 30348283 30558208 30608178
29508134 29208155 28938204 28618280 29198342 29848367=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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