ACUS11 KWNS 281831
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281830
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-282030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...Southern Pennsylvania into northern New Jersey and
far southern New York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...

Valid 281830Z - 282030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525
continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of corridors of relatively greater severe wind
potential have emerged across portions of WW 525. These corridors
will continue to be the primary axes for severe weather over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar and velocity imagery depicts a
consolidating cold pool within a loosely organized MCS across far
eastern PA and northern NJ. This line has reached sufficient
intensity to produce 50 mph gusts (recently measured at KABE), and
will continue to reside within a thermodynamic environment adequate
for MCS maintenance for at least next 1-2 hours (MLCAPE remains near
1000 J/kg downstream where temperatures are warming into the 80s).
Marginal deep-layer wind shear and a relatively narrow effective
warm sector should modulate overall storm intensity, but the
potential for damaging wind gusts should persist downstream. Local
expansions of WW 525 have been made to address this potential.

Further west, a cluster of thunderstorms across south-central PA has
displayed signs of a slowly deepening and organizing cold pool.
Immediately downstream, a narrow corridor of partly cloudy skies has
allowed temperatures to warm into the low 80s and MLCAPE to increase
to near 1500 J/kg. This more buoyant air mass, coupled with around
25 knots of 0-6 km BWD sampled by KCCX, may promote further organization/intensification of the emerging line over the next 1-2
hours with an attendant threat for damaging winds.

..Moore.. 07/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5726oNvnn7rpb7eTHnhyba3RGfCqVgYEgMPcbgCd8uGKoLjxx39oVvXADaoX7ylYJffxY2Hy9qUoFtOiRqxJC6-X5Oc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40187886 40327859 40497800 40607742 40597646 40717578
40957524 41147493 41637441 41697407 41587373 41307357
40727398 40387417 40107453 39737549 39637611 39637700
39677782 39807854 39957885 40187886

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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