ACUS11 KWNS 282031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282031
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-282230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Virginia...eastern North Carolina...portions of northern South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 282031Z - 282230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level cloud cover has been in place across much of
North Carolina to the coast through the morning/early afternoon.
This has led to slow air mass recovery behind morning convection. A
few breaks in the clouds are shifting eastward, with a few hours of
daytime heating left for recovery. Temperatures have warmed into the
mid to upper 80s. With additional heating, it is likely that at
least marginal to moderate instability will return across the area
ahead of the approaching front/thunderstorms from the east. This
along with strengthening deep layer shear may support potential for
a few organized clusters/embedded supercells and increasing severe
potential this evening. The main threats will be damaging wind,
large hail, and perhaps a tornado. A watch will be needed in the
next couple of hours to cover this potential.

..Thornton/Hart.. 07/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8U8ozm7nz2Ad_Mwwg1X-Qf025uAU5ab_ncYM3stTAQYkRSRKkrPaLdhHKsuz_sxI7OPOzG5f4OcaQNiKte3Hhv572Ak$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 35018023 36327888 36567839 36597781 37037710 37177664
37137613 36837566 36257560 35737534 34377594 34017762
33797848 34017927 34548009 34798038 35018023

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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