ACUS11 KWNS 282215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282215
NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-282345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1789
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...Eastern TN/northeast GA into western NC and
northern SC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526...

Valid 282215Z - 282345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind, isolated hail, and perhaps a
tornado or two will spread southeastward through the evening.
Eventual downstream watch issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...A storm cluster with embedded supercells is moving
southeastward across eastern TN and western NC as of 22 UTC. A cell
near the TN/NC border has recently produced an apparent tornado with
a TDS, while other cells have produced occasional reports of wind
damage and isolated hail. This storm cluster is expected to spread southeastward ahead of a surface wave currently near the KY/TN/VA
border region. The downstream environment remains favorable for
supercells, with a warm and very moist boundary layer, MLCAPE of
2000-3500 J/kg, and increasing deep-layer shear within the
northwesterly flow regime, oriented orthogonal to the cold front
moving across the region.

Some upscale growth and an increase in damaging-wind potential is
possible with time, though the favorable wind profiles will continue
to support embedded supercells, with a threat of isolated hail. With
the rich boundary-layer moisture and at least modest low-level
hodograph curvature (as noted in recent VWPs from KMRX), some
tornado threat could persist into the evening, with both persistent
supercells, and with any line-embedded circulations if upscale
growth occurs.

With the severe threat expected to spread south of WW 526, eventual
downstream watch issuance is likely.

..Dean/Smith.. 07/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!55bM80EzVtVL1SmojVwKIw1c7j_Zbb-SBMN2_0YToOK7j1_i-R8rwGQEFeB7AWclOy3HX7AidWhLv5hNC-b_4CKTcPU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 35788450 35878436 36328145 36038037 35648009 34728042
34258074 34068164 34188249 34368319 34558367 34798412
35048446 35788450

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)