ACUS11 KWNS 290105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290105
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-290230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...Parts of eastern NC/VA into the Delmarva region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527...530...

Valid 290105Z - 290230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527, 530
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind, marginally severe hail, and
possibly a tornado will continue into late evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to locally severe storms are ongoing
this evening from across parts of central/eastern NC/VA. The 00Z GSO
and MHX soundings depict a favorable environment for organized
storms, with rich boundary-layer moisture, MLCAPE in excess of 2500
J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer shear. Short-term guidance and area
VWPs depict increasing flow in the lowest 3 km, with associated
low-level theta-e advection potentially supporting an increase in
storm coverage from eastern NC into far southeast VA with time this
evening.

Occasional supercells will continue to be possible into late
evening, with an attendant threat of damaging wind, marginal hail,
and possibly a tornado. Increasing storm coverage may result in some
increase in wind-damage potential with time, with enlarging
low-level hodographs continuing to support some tornado potential,
if surface-based convection can be maintained.

..Dean.. 07/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_vzbiUEIkLH9wxK2Bp9FdzkOE0OX0KKov59q864ZDpxya0MiTX9HMi2vWxvh65iyu_iyx2Gw1osJsnPklQE6lVbNzF8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

LAT...LON 37907562 35287611 34277786 34427837 34997887 36067917
36627871 37907765 38017631 37907562

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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