ACUS11 KWNS 042046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042046
NMZ000-AZZ000-042215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1833
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 042046Z - 042215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are likely over parts of southeast
AZ and southwest NM this afternoon/evening. Some storms could
produce strong/severe gusts or isolated hail. A WW is possible, but
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Afternoon satellite and radar imagery across the
Southwest showed initial convective development is underway over the
higher terrain of southeastern AZ and southwest NM. Driven in part
by enhanced surface convergence near a thermally induced surface
low, thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage over the
next several hours. The air mass downstream is expected to continue
to destabilize, with surface temperatures near/exceeding 100 degrees
F amid mid to upper 50s F dewpoints supporting MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg.

With time, congealing outflow and modest easterly flow aloft should
allow for one or more clusters to move westward out of the higher
terrain. Additional storms may develop near the international border
and spread northwestward into the lower deserts. Isolated hail
(1-1.25 inches) will be possible with these initial updrafts, owing
to the moderate buoyancy and initially cellular storm mode. Steep
low/mid-level lapse rates ahead of this activity will also favor
plentiful evaporative cooling and strong downdrafts. The potential
for dry microbursts and associated outflow could support 60-80 mph
gusts with the most robust clusters through the evening. Given the
increasing coverage of thunderstorms and a risk for strong/severe
gusts this evening, a WW is being considered over parts of
southeastern AZ and southwest NM.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!50AW7i_zGigiDETPxX2is0jlJTJeasKZy01tZWF7KUoa-X58wdgaarilUIpM_pQyoE0ZKfqxH9709-maSqZeYh2CdjQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON 31621218 32251253 33171072 33790953 33790862 33290794
32620786 32340789 31890795 31570805 31380816 31200829
31140886 31140998 31151084 31181117 31621218

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)