• ADVISORY: TS Julia 9

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Sat Oct 8 11:03:00 2022
    014
    WTNT33 KNHC 081449
    TCPAT3

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Julia Advisory Number 9
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
    1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 08 2022

    ...JULIA A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...

    ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE FROM HEAVY
    RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...


    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...12.6N 79.9W
    ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
    ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
    for the entire Pacific coast of Nicaragua.

    The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
    the Pacific coast of Honduras, including the Gulf of Fonseca.

    The government of El Salvador has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
    the entire coast of El Salvador.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
    * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
    * Nicaragua from Bluefields to Puerto Cabezas

    A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
    * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Nicaragua south of Bluefields to the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border
    * Nicaragua north of Puerto Cabezas to the Honduras/Nicaragua border
    * Pacific coast of Nicaragua
    * Pacific coast of Honduras

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Honduras from the Nicaragua/Honduras border to Punta Patuca
    * Coast of El Salvador

    A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
    somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
    36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
    tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
    preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
    and property should be rushed to completion.

    A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
    within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
    before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
    winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
    dangerous.

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
    possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
    products issued by your national meteorological service.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Julia was
    located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 79.9 West. Julia is
    moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A general westward
    motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through
    Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Julia is expected to
    pass near or over San Andres and Providencia Islands later today
    and then move inland along the coast of Nicaragua early Sunday
    morning. Julia is then expected to cross Nicaragua on Sunday, and
    move near or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and
    El Salvador Sunday night and Monday.

    Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
    with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Julia
    is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is
    forecast after the center moves inland over Nicaragua on Sunday,
    but Julia could still be at tropical storm strength when it moves
    near or along the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El
    Salvador Sunday night and Monday. Julia is forecast to become a
    remnant low by late Monday and dissipate by Tuesday.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    Key messages for Julia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
    Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
    and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

    WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on the Colombian islands of
    San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina by this evening, with
    tropical storm conditions beginning this afternoon. Hurricane
    conditions are expected along the coast of Nicaragua within the
    hurricane warning area early Sunday morning, with tropical storm
    conditions beginning by tonight. Hurricane conditions are possible
    along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane watch area
    early Sunday morning.

    Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Caribbean coast of
    Nicaragua within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight or
    early Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the
    coast of Honduras within the watch area on Sunday.

    Tropical storm conditions are expected along the Pacific coasts of
    Nicaragua and Honduras by Sunday afternoon. Tropical storm
    conditions are possible along the coast of El Salvador by Sunday
    night.

    RAINFALL: Julia is expected to produce the following rainfall
    accumulations through early Tuesday:

    San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches.
    Nicaragua...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
    Remainder of Central America...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches.
    Isthmus of Tehuantepec in Mexico...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

    This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides
    through this weekend. Flash flooding is possible across the Isthmus
    of Tehuantepec in Mexico early next week.

    STORM SURGE: A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as
    much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
    coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and
    Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be
    accompanied by large and damaging waves.

    A storm surge is likely to raise water levels by as much as 4
    to 6 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
    Nicaragua in areas of onshore winds. Large and damaging waves will
    likely accompany the storm surge near the coast.

    SURF: Swells generated by Julia are affecting Jamaica, Providencia,
    and San Andres, and will reach portions of the coast of Central
    America later today into Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
    products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


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