417
AXNT20 KNHC 121016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Feb 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning:
A tight pressure gradient between high pressure SE of Bermuda and
lower pressure over northwest Colombia is supporting gale force
ENE winds offshore Colombia near Barranquilla early this morning,
along with seas of up to 11 ft (3.5 m). The gradient will relax
later today as the high pressure moves farther east, allowing
gales to end.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: ttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php
for more details on these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N23W, then continues to 02N22W.
The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 00N32W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is evident from 00N to 02N between 29W and 32W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A nearly stationary front resides along the northern Gulf coast
from the Florida Panhandle to Deep South Texas. South of this
boundary, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 26N92W is
dominating the weather over the basin. A generally light,
anticyclonic flow is established over the basin, except for gentle
NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 3 ft or less.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Fri, bringing light
to gentle SE winds. Southerly winds will increase to moderate to
fresh speeds Fri night ahead of a cold front that will moves cross
the west and central waters Sat night and Sun. Strong winds and
rough seas are possible in the northern Gulf with this frontal system.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

See the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.

A surface trough that extends along 68W through the Mona Passage
is leading to scattered moderate convection within 120 nm south of
Puerto Rico. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail, with moderate to
fresh trades across most of the basin, with the except of the NW,
where gentle to moderate NE to E winds are ongoing. Seas are 5 to
7 ft in the central and eastern basin, 5 to 9 ft in the SW, and 3
to 5 ft in the NW.

For the forecast, gale-force winds will end early this morning
offshore Colombia, but will pulse to near gale-force again tonight
due to the pressure gradient between the Colombia/Panamanian low
and high pressure centered N of the region. Winds will continue to
pulse to strong nightly thereafter. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
trades will prevail through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Large NW swell over the central Atlantic continues to decay this
morning and seas have now fallen below 12 ft. Still, the long-
period-swell is leading to widespread rough seas of 8-11 ft for
all waters E of 60W. Across the same area, S of 25N, moderate to
fresh trades dominate. A dissipating cold stationary front from
31N31W to 25N45W separates two high pressure centers that are
providing waters N of 25N with mainly gentle winds.

Waters W of 60W and S of 25N are being dominated by ridging
associated with the western high pressure, centered near 30N50W
with 1022 mb. This is inducing gentle winds above moderate seas. N
of 25N, SW winds have increased to strong ahead of a cold front
that is sagging southward to just N of the area. Already rough
seas in this area of strong winds continue to build.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will enter NW waters
this morning. Ahead of the front, strong SW to W winds will
prevail N of 28N, along with rough to very rough seas. These
hazardous conditions will spread east through tonight, then
diminish Fri as the front weakens. By Fri night the cold front
will extend from near 31N55W to the SE Bahamas, and the boundary
will sag SE and out of the area Sat night. On Sun, S winds will
increase to strong offshore Florida, in advance of another cold
front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon.

$$
Konarik
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)

386
AXNT20 KNHC 010949
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0925 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A broad subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic will support strong to near gale-force easterly
trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean during
the next several days. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate
gale-force winds off Colombia at night starting Mon and continue
through at least next weekend. Locally very rough seas are expected
with these winds.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A strong high
pressure of 1033 mb located SW of the Azores near 33N38W is
maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the eastern and
central Atlantic. Wind waves associated with these winds will
continue to generate seas of 8 to 14 ft across most of the waters
between 20W and 60W, with highest seas E of 50W. This swell event
will persist through early next week.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N18W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is observed
south of 08N and between Africa and 44W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends across the SE Gulf waters,
producing a few showers ahead of this boundary. The weak pressure
gradient across the basin supports moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the storm activity will continue southeastward
across the far SE Gulf this morning. The stationary front will
transition to a weakening cold front this morning, slowly move
southeastward and exit the basin. Afterward, a strong high
pressure system will build west- southwestward over the area from
the N Atlantic beginning tonight, with the related gradient
generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds
across the Gulf. Locally strong winds will occur at night off the
northern Yucatan Peninsula starting Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad high pressure over the central Atlantic extends into the
Caribbean Sea, supporting strong to near gale-force easterly winds
and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong
easterly breezes and rough seas are found in the SE Caribbean.
Rough seas are noted in the Atlantic passages of the Lesser
Antilles. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
evident in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
will support fresh to near gale-force easterly trades and moderate
to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through the
forecast period. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale-
force winds off Colombia at night Mon through at least late this
week and support locally very rough seas. Fresh to strong
northeast winds will begin in the Windward Passage starting late
Mon night. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical
N Atlantic through the forecast period, with seas to 12 ft
reaching 55W Mon. Elsewhere, little change is expected, with
moderate to fresh trades continuing through the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from 31N74W to SE Florida. A
band of showers with embedded strong thunderstorms is ahead of the
front between 67W-78W. A strong high pressure of 1033 mb situated
SW of the Azores near 33N38W extends a ridge across the remainder
of the Atlantic forecast waters. This system is maintaining fresh
to strong winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic,
particularly E of 60W, with rough seas. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and moderate seas are noted on the western periphery of the
ridge. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will slowly move southeastward
reaching from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas tonight and from
31N62W to the SE Bahamas Mon morning as it weakens. Elsewhere,
high pressure over the central Atlantic continues to maintain control
over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas prevail over
the SE waters. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern
waters early this week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken.
Fresh to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough
seas, peaking to around 13 ft, are forecast behind the front Mon
through Tue night north of 27N. High pressure will build by the
middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough
seas over much of the basin.

$$
Delgado
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)

672
AXNT20 KNHC 021031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Mar 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will continue to
support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough to very
rough seas across the south-central and portions of the SW
Caribbean through at least Sat. Winds will pulse to gale-force
over these waters at night with the added component of nocturnal
drainage flow.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A previous
gale force wind event off the Canary Islands generated a large NE
swell with very rough seas greater than 12 ft. The swell has
propagated from this source region, with these very rough seas
currently over the waters from 09N to 23N between 33W and 52W.
The seas, currently peaking near 12 ft will gradually subside from
east to west through Tue night while rough seas to 10 ft are
forecast to subside E of the Lesser Antilles late on Sun.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ
extends from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S40W.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 360 nm
on either side of the boundaries.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail of a weakening stationary front extends across the
Straits of Florida to the SE Gulf near 25N87W while a broad
surface ridge prevails elsewhere. Winds N of 23N are moderate to
locally fresh from the E to SE over the NW Gulf. Seas are mainly
slight to 3 ft basin-wide.

For the forecast, the tail of the weakening stationary front will
dissipate over the SE Gulf today. Afterward, an expansive area of
strong high pressure will build WSW from the central N Atlantic
and hold through the weekend. Its related pressure gradient will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Gulf. Locally
strong winds will occur at night off the northern Yucatan
Peninsula starting Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in the south-central Caribbean.

Surface ridging from strong high pressure over the E CONUS and
also the Azores High extends across the northern Caribbean, thus
supporting the continuation of fresh to strong winds over the
eastern and central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE winds in
the lee side of Cuba. Seas in the regions of highest winds are
moderate, except rough offshore Colombia and slight seas over the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
will support fresh to near gale-force trades and moderate to
rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri
night. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale-force winds
off Colombia at night beginning tonight and continuing through at
least Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds will also begin in the
Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba this evening and will
continue through Fri. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong E
winds will begin to pulse at night from Thu through Sat.
Otherwise, rough to very rough seas in mixed NE to E swell over
the tropical N Atlantic will subside on Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features above for information on a significant swell event.

A strong Azores high extending a ridge into the deep tropical
waters continue to support a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E
winds and rough to very rough seas from the coast of W Africa all
the way to the Lesser Antilles and between the ITCZ and 27N.
Northwest of the Canary Islands, a cold front brings fresh to
strong N to NE winds and rough seas in NW swell. Lastly, a weak
stationary front extends from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail ahead of the front
and a pre-frontal trough to about 60W. Moderate NE winds and seas
follow the front.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken
further as it slowly moves southeastward before becoming diffuse
tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
prevail over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas will
continue over the southeastern waters. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast behind the
remnants of the aforementioned front through Tue night north of
27N. An expansive area of strong high pressure will build across
the north-central Atlantic by the middle of the week resulting in
moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin.

$$
Ramos
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (21:1/175)