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MD 1595 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542... FOR
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MN...WEST-CENTRAL WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1595 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019
Areas affected...South-Central/Southeast MN...West-Central WI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542...
Valid 270546Z - 270715Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542
continues.
SUMMARY...Ongoing storms are expected to persist for the next hour
or two with an isolated strong wind gust and hail threat. Spatial
and temporally limited threat will preclude the need for another
watch downstream.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue along a weak cold front extending
from western Lake Superior southwestward through west-central WI
and south-central MN. Strongest storm is currently moving through
Dunn and eastern Pepin counties in west-central WI. Storms have
also recently intensified farther southwest along the front in
southeast and south-central MN.
Given the strong convective inhibition (i.e. -200 J/kg) in place for
any surface-based parcels, these ongoing storms are likely elevated,
supported by weak warm-air advection between 925 and 850 mb.
Moderate instability exists downstream, supported by lapse rates
between 800 and 600 mb near 7 deg C per km and ample low-level
moisture (100-mb mean mixing ratios around 14 g/kg). Moderate
vertical shear also exists, with mesoanalysis estimating effective
bulk shear around 35-40 kt. Expectation is for the ongoing storms
to persist for the next hour or two before eventually weakening as
the warm-air advection weakens. Before they weaken, a few strong
wind gusts and isolated hail are possible. Spatial and temporally
limited threat will limit the need for a downstream watch.
..Mosier/Grams.. 07/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43999511 44409334 44869214 45029097 44769042 44299042
43819105 43349311 43439502 43999511
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121
PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from
Lower Michigan into southern Wisconsin, and from eastern Wyoming
and western Nebraska into South Dakota. Marginal hail and wind are
most likely.
...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes
Saturday morning will weaken as it ejects northeastward toward
eastern Ontario, with a surface low over James Bay. During this
time, winds aloft will weaken, with 500-mb speeds south of this wave
decreasing from 40 to 25 kt by 00Z. A cold front will stall from
northern Lower Michigan into southern Wisconsin and northern Iowa,
with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints remaining just ahead. This front
will serve as a focus for scattered storms by late afternoon.
To the west, shortwave ridging will give way to height falls from
late in the day into the night as a shortwave trough moves east
across MT. Aiding lift will be a smaller lead wave that will move
from the WY/CO border across NE and SD. An east-west oriented front
along the NE/SD border will lift north across western SD and eastern
WY during the day, aiding moisture return with southeast surface
winds and dewpoints near 60 F. This will result in widespread
thunderstorms over the northern High Plains during the afternoon,
continuing into the Dakotas overnight.
...Eastern Wyoming, western Nebraska, South Dakota... Strong
heating will occur over CO and WY, near a weak lee trough and in
the vicinity of the returning front over WY/SD. Scattered storms
are likely to develop relatively early between 18-21Z both over the
high terrain and near the front. Deep-layer shear will be marginal
in terms of severe potential, with about 25kt winds at 500 mb.
However, substantial low-level moisture with low 60s F dewpoints
near the front will result in MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and will
support strong storms capable of marginally severe hail and wind.
Storms are likely to congeal into a somewhat disorganized complex
of storms and outflows as they continue across SD, with marginal
wind or hail possible overnight.
...Lower Michigan into southern Wisconsin and northeast Iowa...
Heating of a moist air mass ahead of the stalling front will lead
to moderate instability, especially over IA and WI with MLCAPE of
2500-3000 J/kg. Shear will weaken throughout the day but winds in
the 850-700 mb layer will still average 25-30 kt out of the west.
This, along with steep boundary-layer lapse rates, may support
sporadic hail and locally gusty winds with storms that form during
the late afternoon near the front, and persist through evening. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 07/27/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240
AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Few strong to severe storms could produce locally
damaging wind gusts across parts of the Upper Midwest Sunday
afternoon and evening.
...Portions of the Mid-MO and Upper MS Valleys... Overall
guidance has not changed considerably from previous 2-3 model
runs. South/southwesterly low level winds will maintain a seasonally
moist airmass across the region. Dewpoints in the mid 60s to low
70s F beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will result in weak to
moderate destabilization by early afternoon. A lead shortwave impulse
will spread across the region during the afternoon, while the main
lobe of the northern Plains upper shortwave trough overspreads the
region after 00z.
Convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
in association with a MCV over eastern SD. This feature will shift east/northeast along a surface trough, which extends southward into
the Upper Midwest from the main surface low over northern Manitoba.
Some strengthening of this feature is possible, and may have an
influence on overall severe threat. Either way, increasing ascent
and modest effective shear around 30 kt should support some stronger storms/bowing clusters capable of locally strong wind gusts. The
surface cold front will quickly shift southeast, extending from
northwest WI southwestward through western IA and into central
KS by mid evening. Some organization of a line along the front is
possible during the nighttime hours as a southwesterly low level
jet increases, but convection may struggle to remain surface based
with a lack of stronger instability/shear.
...Eastern OH into PA/NY and portions of New England...
Scattered storms are expected to develop by early afternoon along
a weak surface boundary from northeast OH into western PA/NY. 60s
surface dewpoints will aid in weak destabilization as a weak upper
trough garners just enough effective shear for semi-organized
clusters and line segments. Overall severe threat is expected to
remain low given modest environmental parameters.
Further northeast into parts of ME, somewhat stronger effective
shear could glance the area and storm structures could organize a
bit more than further southwest. This could result in a relative max
in strong storm potential with some gusty winds or perhaps small
hail possible. However, poor lapse rates and limited instability
combined with weak forcing should temper overall threat.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Leitman.. 07/27/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150
AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected
on Monday.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will linger over the upper Great Lakes/Midwest
vicinity on Monday. The main wave will accelerate into western
Quebec while a weaker southern branch becomes sandwiched between a
strong upper ridge centered over the Rockies and a ridge over the
western Atlantic. A surface cold front will continue east and south,
oriented from near Lake Michigan to northern KS by Tuesday morning.
Areas of thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the front
from the upper Great Lakes southwestward toward the Ozark Plateau
and parts of the southern Plains. A lack of stronger forcing
and generally weak deep layer flow will limit organized severe
potential. However, given a moist, unstable boundary layer along
the surface boundary, cannot rule out sporadic strong storms. Any
limited severe potential will be driven by mesoscale influences
both from prior day's convection and storm/boundary interactions,
which are uncertain and not resolved well at this time.
..Leitman.. 07/27/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN MONTANA...
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the
northwestern CONUS today. Strengthening mid-level flow associated
with this trough will lead to elevated fire weather conditions in
several locations in the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies,
critical conditions in northern Montana, and the potential for
isolated dry thunderstorms from central Idaho into southern Montana.
...Much of northern Montana... Strengthening downslope flow and deep
mixing will lead to strengthening surface winds and lowering relative
humidity across much of northern Montana during the afternoon and
evening hours today. Winds are expected to increase to 20 to 30 mph
across this region with relative humidity in the 15 to 20 percent
range. The strongest winds are expected to be in closer proximity
to the higher terrain in Toole and Liberty counties.
...Much of eastern Washington... While the strongest mid-level flow
will be in northern Montana by this afternoon, winds aloft will still
be strong enough for elevated wind speeds to mix toward the surface
in much of the Columbia Basin. Wind speeds are expected to be in the
15 to 20 mph range with relative humidities around 18 to 25 percent. ...Southern Oregon into Idaho... Mid-level winds are expected
to be much weaker in southern Oregon and Idaho this afternoon,
but the low-level air mass is expected to be much drier than areas
farther north. Therefore, while winds are only expected to be in
the 10 to 15 mph range in much of this region, very dry surface
humidity in the 8 to 15 percent range gives enough justification
for an elevated delineation.
...Dry Thunderstorms - East central Idaho into southwest Montana... Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain
in central Idaho during the afternoon and move eastward into the
evening. These storms are expected to form in an environment with
PWAT values around 0.75" and storm speeds around 25 mph. Therefore,
this combination of a relatively dry environment and moderate storm
speeds in an area with 100 hr fuel moisture less than 10% should
support a threat for lightning ignitions in portions of eastern
Idaho and southwest Montana.
..Bentley.. 07/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis... 35 to 40 knot mid-level northwesterly flow will be
present across the northern Rockies and northern Plains on Sunday. At
the surface, most of the northern Rockies and the western Dakotas
will be in a dry post frontal air mass. The combination of these
dry conditions and increasing surface winds due to deep mixing
transporting the stronger winds from aloft to the surface may lead
to elevated fire weather conditions in eastern Montana, southwest
North Dakota, and northwest South Dakota as well as eastern Idaho
and western Wyoming.
...eastern Montana, southwest North Dakota, and northwest South
Dakota... Northwesterly surface winds of 20 to 25 mph are expected
to develop by mid-afternoon from eastern Montana into the western
Dakotas. In addition, surface relative humidity is expected to drop
to the 20 to 25 percent range. Elevated conditions are not expected
to be all that long-lived in any one location as a reinforcing
shot of cool air will advect southward from Canada and increase
surface relative humidity from north to south across the elevated
area during the afternoon and evening.
...Eastern Idaho and western Wyoming... The stronger mid-level
flow is expected to remain over Montana and the Dakotas, but is
it is expected to be sufficient (30 to 35 knots) over portions of
the north-central Rockies for surface winds to increase to 15 to
20 mph during the afternoon and evening. In addition, a dry air
mass will be in place across this region with surface relative
humidity in the 10 to 20 percent range. Therefore, an elevated fire
weather area is justified from central Idaho eastward into central
Wyoming. Conditions may be less dry in the higher elevations of
northwest Wyoming and therefore, elevated conditions may be less
likely, but relative humidities are expected to be close enough
(20 to 25 percent) with slightly higher winds at elevation, that
this area was included within the broader elevated area.
..Bentley.. 07/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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