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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242
AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEAR NEW YORK CITY...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts
will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic to near New York
City this afternoon. A few severe storms will also be possible in
the northern High Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.
...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... An upper-level trough will
move across the eastern U.S. today. At the surface, a cold front will
move southeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic as a pre-frontal trough
strengthens during the day. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s to near 70 F will contribute to a pocket of moderate instability by midday. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the
foothills of the Appalachians, moving eastward toward the coastal
areas during the afternoon. The moderate instability combined with
steep low-level lapse rates should result in a wind-damage threat
with the stronger multicell line segments. A slight risk is added
to the outlook from the Mid-Atlantic northeastward to near New
York City, where the potential appears the greatest for damaging
wind gusts.
...Northern High Plains... An upper-level ridge will move
slowly eastward across the northern High Plains today. At the
surface, a cold front is forecast to move into eastern Montana and
northwestern North Dakota. Ahead of this feature, a corridor of
maximized low-level moisture will exist with surface dewpoints in
the mid 60s F. In response, moderate instability should develop
by midday. In spite of limited large-scale ascent, isolated
thunderstorms should initiate along the front during the mid to late
afternoon. Directional shear in the low to mid-levels and steep
lapse rates should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail
and strong gusty winds will be the primary threats.
...Lower to Mid Missouri Valley... Northwest mid-level flow
will be in place across the central U.S. today. At the surface,
a low will likely deepen across the central Plains as winds remain southeasterly across the lower to mid Missouri Valley. This will help
a corridor of maximized low-level moisture to develop across eastern
Kansas into southeast Nebraska, where moderate instability appears
likely by afternoon. Model forecasts develop convection near a minor
shortwave trough along the eastern edge of instability during the
late afternoon and early evening. Convection will be mostly likely
from near Omaha southward to near the Kansas City Metro early this
evening. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates should result in a marginal hail threat. A few damaging
wind gusts will be possible as well.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 07/31/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur
across parts of the northern and central Plains on Thursday.
...Synopsis... A convectively enhanced mid-level perturbation will
likely move around the apex of an upper ridge centered over the
Southwest and southern Plains on Thursday. This perturbation should
encourage convective development across parts of the northern/central
High Plains Thursday afternoon. Farther east, an upper trough will
move eastward off the East Coast and over the Canadian Maritimes.
At the surface, a cold front will decelerate and become nearly
stationary across parts of the Southeast by Thursday afternoon. At
least scattered thunderstorms should form along/ahead of the front,
but weak shear will likely preclude an organized severe threat
across this region.
Across the central Plains, a surface low should gradually deepen
over western/central KS through the day. A baroclinic zone will
likely reach across KS to the north and east of the low. A separate
weak surface boundary should also be present across parts of the
northern Plains. This front will probably extend from eastern MT
into ND and perhaps northern MN by Thursday evening.
...Central Plains... Mainly elevated convection should be ongoing
Thursday morning across eastern KS into western MO in a low-level
warm air advection regime. These storms should quickly weaken
as a low-level jet diminishes through the morning. Farther west,
modest low-level upslope flow across parts of the central High Plains
and weak ascent associated with the previously mentioned mid-level
perturbation should initiate convection across the higher terrain
of CO and southeastern WY by Thursday afternoon. As this activity
spreads eastward into the central High Plains, it should encounter
a weak to moderately unstable airmass along/south of a baroclinic
zone. Even though mid-level westerly flow is not forecast to be
overly strong across this region, a veering wind profile from the
surface through mid levels should result in enough shear to support
some updraft organization. Isolated large hail and damaging winds
may occur with the strongest storms.
Convective initiation along a baroclinic zone across KS and
southern NE Thursday afternoon appears highly uncertain due to
capping issues. But, any storm that develops would be capable of
producing severe hail/wind given strong instability and sufficient
shear forecast. A southerly low-level jet is expected to rapidly
strengthen to around 35-40 kt Thursday evening across KS into
southern NE. Robust convection appears likely along and north of
the surface boundary in response. Moderate to locally strong MUCAPE
and increasing shear should promote a risk for isolated large hail
in the early, more discrete stage of storm development. There
may also be a narrow window of opportunity for a tornado with
any surface-based storms along the surface boundary from parts of
north-central into northeastern KS early Thursday evening as the
low-level jet strengthens.
...Northern Plains... Isolated to widely scattered storms should
form by Thursday afternoon along a weak surface boundary extending
west to east across parts of the northern Plains. Although mid-level west-northwesterly flow should be limited to no more than 20-25 kt,
a moist low-level airmass to the south of this front will become
moderately to strongly unstable by peak afternoon heating. Loosely
organized thunderstorm clusters appear possible, and strong to
damaging winds may occur as storms develop east-southeastward in
a well-mixed boundary layer with steepened low-level lapse rates.
Marginally severe hail may also be noted with the strongest cores.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Gleason.. 07/31/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge is centered over the southern
Rockies with several mid-level shortwave troughs rounding the
periphery of this ridge. One of these shortwave troughs will support
isolated dry thunderstorms in portions of the northern Rockies with
another leading to weak lee cyclogenesis in the central High Plains
and thus the potential for elevated fire weather concerns.
...Central Idaho and southwest Montana... A similar pattern to the
last 2 days will bring another round of mostly dry thunderstorms to
central Idaho and southwest Montana this afternoon and evening. PWAT
values will be between 0.5 and 0.75" with high cloud bases and storm
speeds around 25 to 30 mph. Repeated days of convection across
this region may have moistened fuels in some parts of the area,
but a significant portion of the region likely still has receptive
fuels for fire starts.
...TX/OK Panhandles into southwest Kansas... Weak lee cyclogenesis
is expected in eastern Colorado/western Kansas this afternoon as
a weak shortwave trough moves through Colorado. The strengthening
pressure gradient as a result of this developing lee cyclone will
lead to 15 to 20 mph winds from the northern Texas Panhandle into
southwest Kansas. In addition to the breezy conditions, surface
relative humidity is expected to be around 20 percent and a lack
of recent rainfall has led to cured fine fuels across portions of
the area. Therefore, an elevated fire weather area is justified to
cover this threat.
..Bentley.. 07/31/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis... Thursday's pattern will be very similar to Wednesday
with the potential for dry thunderstorms in central Idaho and
southwest Montana and elevated fire weather conditions in the TX/OK
Panhandles into southwest Kansas.
...Northeast Oregon, most of Iowa, and southwest Montana... Isolated
dry thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening
from northeast Oregon eastward into eastern Idaho and southwest
Montana. These thunderstorms are expected to form in an environment
with PWAT values between 0.5" and 0.75". There is some uncertainty
regarding fuels after many days of thunderstorms across portions
of this region. In addition, there is forecast uncertainty related
to slightly deeper monsoon moisture trying to move northward into
eastern portions of the isolated dry thunderstorm area and slightly
slower storm speeds than previous days. Therefore, additional tweaks
to the IsoDryT area may be needed in future outlooks.
...TX/OK Panhandles into southwest Kansas... A weak surface
cyclone will be present Thursday morning in eastern Colorado/western
Kansas. Some weak lee cyclogenesis is expected through the day which
will lead to strengthening surface winds in portions of the southern
High Plains. This may lead to elevated fire weather conditions in
portions of the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest Kansas where wind
speeds are expected to be around 15 to 20 mph with relative humidity
around 20 percent.
...Northeast California, northwest Nevada, and far southern Oregon...
Breezy and dry conditions are possible in northeast California and
northwest Nevada into southern Oregon on Thursday afternoon/evening.
However, wind speeds are only marginally elevated at this time,
so did not include an elevated area with this outlook, but will
continue to monitor forecast trends in future outlooks.
..Bentley.. 07/31/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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