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MD 1627 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN
KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2019
Areas affected...Eastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 010457Z - 010700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Vigorous thunderstorm activity may continue to develop
across parts of eastern Kansas overnight and could pose at least
some continuing risk for severe hail and wind. It is not clear
that a watch is needed, but trends will continue to be monitored
for the possibility of increasing severe wind potential overnight. DISCUSSION...Vigorous ongoing thunderstorm development (in a corridor
southwest of Falls City NE into areas north of Bartlesville OK)
coincides with a zone of enhanced warm advection focused roughly
around the 700 mb level. This is near the eastern edge of warmer
and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer, beneath the eastern
periphery of a prominent mid-level subtropical high centered over
the central High Plains.
Although deep-layer northwesterly mean ambient flow is rather
modest, there appears sufficient turning with height to support
strong shear, mainly for isolated storms developing and becoming
rooted closer to the boundary layer, to the southwest of the warm
advection convection. In the presence of moderately large CAPE
in excess of 2000 J/kg, the stronger storms may continue to pose
a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.
Severe weather potential into the 06-09Z time frame may remain
isolated enough that a watch is not necessary. However, as a
nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet (30-40 kt at
850 mb) across the Panhandle region into central Kansas gradually
veers to an increasing southwesterly component, warm advection and
convergence on the nose of this feature may support new development
to the west/southwest of ongoing storms. A consolidation of
activity into an upscale growing, organizing convective system,
which could eventually pose an increasing risk for strong surface
gusts, might not be out of the question later tonight.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39759695 39669547 38099468 37069556 37359630 38339677
38909741 39759695
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246
AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
CO...FAR NORTHWEST KS...FAR SOUTHWEST NE...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong
wind gusts are possible across the central Plains this afternoon
and evening.
...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the southern High Plains
and extending into the Canadian Prairie provinces will remain the
primary upper feature today. A compact shortwave trough will move
into the Pacific Northwest/southern British Columbia tonight. A pair
of more subtle/low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to move
through the periphery of the upper ridge. The northernmost of this
pair is expected to move out of WY and into SD/NE this afternoon
and evening while the southernmost of the pair moves through the
middle MS Valley into the lower MS Valley. Both of these shortwave
trough will provide the impetus for thunderstorm development.
...Central High Plains into the Northern Plains/Northern High
Plains... Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon as diurnal heating destabilizes the air mass and previously
mentioned shortwave trough provides the forcing for ascent. Highest thunderstorm coverage is expected across the central High Plains
where the best overlap between favorable low-level moisture,
instability, and forcing for ascent exists. Effective bulk shear
will be around 35 kt, which is sufficient for organized storms. An
initially cellular/discrete mode will likely transition to a more
linear mode as cold pools amalgamate and upscale growth occurs.
Consequently, primary threat will initially be large hail with a
transition to strong wind gusts thereafter.
Farther north (eastern WY/western NE Panhandle/western SD),
shortwave trough may precede diurnal destabilization here, limiting thunderstorm coverage and intensity. Even so, a few strong to severe
storms are possible.
A somewhat different forcing mechanism is anticipated across eastern
MT, where convergence along a surface trough is expected to provide
the lift needed for convective initiation. Limited low-level moisture
and deep boundary-layer mixing will likely keep storm coverage
isolated, although modest directional shear could support a few
stronger updrafts capable of large hail and/or strong wind gusts.
...Lower MS Valley... Shortwave trough enhanced by convection
currently ongoing across eastern KS/western MO will progress
southward throughout the day. Some modest increase in the mid-level
southerly flow may accompany this shortwave as it rounds the upper
ridge in LA/east TX. Overlap between this stronger flow aloft and
afternoon thunderstorms may occur across portions of the lower
MS Valley, yielding a few strong storms capable of damaging wind
gusts. Even so, forecast uncertainty and low coverage result in
severe probabilities less than 5%.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 08/01/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF KS/OK...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur
Friday across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.
...Synopsis... A vorticity maximum associated with prior convection
will probably be located over NE and northern KS Friday morning. This perturbation should move southeastward across the central/southern
Plains on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the
Four Corners region. A weak surface low is forecast to gradually
deepen through peak afternoon heating across the southern High
Plains. A convectively reinforced baroclinic zone should extend
from central/eastern KS into eastern OK.
...Southern/Central Plains... The strength of the vorticity maximum
over the central Plains and associated mid-level northwesterly winds
still remains highly uncertain. 00Z guidance has generally trended
stronger with these winds aloft, especially the NAM. As ascent
attendant to the mid-level perturbation begins to overspread the
surface baroclinic zone by Friday afternoon, convective initiation
across parts of KS into northern OK may occur. With upper 60s
to lower 70s surface dewpoints expected to remain across the
warm sector, strong diurnal heating should support moderate to
perhaps strong instability developing along/south of the surface
boundary by late Friday afternoon. The placement of this boundary is
still uncertain, and will be dependent on the evolution of mainly
elevated convection ongoing Friday morning across eastern KS into
northeastern OK. Even with these uncertainties, any storm that
can develop along/near the baroclinic zone could become severe
given the strengthening winds aloft, with both large hail and
strong to damaging winds possible. This isolated severe threat
may continue into Friday evening across parts of central/eastern
OK as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens across this region.
Storms ongoing Friday morning across eastern KS into northeastern
OK should weaken as low-level warm air advection supporting them
gradually diminishes through the mid morning. Still, some guidance
suggests a small cluster of storms survives and subsequently
intensifies across southeastern OK into northeast TX by Friday
afternoon. If this occurs, it would be driven by mesoscale convective
processes and well ahead of large-scale ascent associated with the
previously mentioned vorticity maximum over the central Plains. This
scenario currently appears too uncertain and conditional to include
5% severe probabilities farther south.
...Northern Rockies... A positively tilted shortwave trough
will advance northeastward from the Pacific Northwest into
British Columbia and Alberta through the period. Glancing ascent
attendant to this upper trough should encourage at least isolated
storms to develop across parts of the northern Rockies by Friday
afternoon. Even through mid-level southwesterly winds should modestly strengthen across this region, low-level moisture is expected to
remain quite meager. This will probably limit an organized severe
threat.
...Elsewhere... Generally weak flow will likely limit severe
potential with thunderstorms that form Friday across parts of
the northern Plains, Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast,
and the central/southern Rockies.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 5%
- Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Gleason.. 08/01/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2019
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will be centered over the
southern High Plains today with an upper trough approaching the
Pacific Northwest. This trough will the potential for elevated fire
weather conditions from northeast California into southern Oregon
and isolated dry thunderstorms from northeast Nevada into southwest
Montana and northeast Washington.
The elevated area from Day 2 was dropped as high resolution forecast
guidance continues to show decreasing surface winds across the
region and thus less of a chance for elevated fire weather condtions. ...Northeast California, northwest Nevada, and southern Oregon....
A very dry airmass will be in place across portions of the western
Great Basin into California and Oregon. Mid-level southwesterly
flow will strengthen through the day, some of which will transport
toward the surface via deep boundary layer mixing during the
afternoon hours. This will lead to wind speeds around 15 to 20 mph
and relative humidity in the 8 to 12 percent range. Therefore, an
elevated fire weather delineation was justified to cover the threat. ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada into southwest
Montana... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will support isolated
storm coverage from northeast Nevada into southwest Montana this
afternoon. The IsoDryT delineation was adjusted to reflect where
storms are most likely in an airmass with sub 0.75" PWAT values. In
addition, fuels may be somewhat less receptive in some portions
of northeast Idaho and southwest Montana due to many consecutive
days of thunderstorms across this region. Have started to trend
the IsoDryT line westward to account for this, but am hesitant to
move much farther west as areas with very dry fuels likely remain
where scattered precipitation has been sparse.
...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Washington... Late tonight
(08-12Z), isolated dry thunderstorms may develop in northeast
Washington as a potent mid-level shortwave trough approaches the
region. PWAT values are expected to be around 0.75" and storm speeds
will likely be very quick (50+ mph). These factors in combination
with over a week of dry weather in eastern Washington may lead to
good strike efficiency with any storms that form late tonight.
..Bentley.. 08/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Thu Aug 01 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will be centered over the Four
Corners region on Friday with an upper-level trough exiting the
United States into southwest Canada. This trough may bring elevated
fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions
of the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
...Columbia Basin... A strengthening onshore pressure gradient will
lead to strong surface winds through Cascade gaps and the Columbia
River Gorge on Friday afternoon. The airmass west of the Cascades
will be moist enough to limit a greater fire weather risk near these
gaps, but farther east of the Cascades, deep mixing will lead to
dry surface conditions and will transport some stronger mid-level
flow to the surface. In this region is where elevated fire weather
conditions will be most likely Friday afternoon/early evening.
...Northern Montana... Dry downslope flow is expected in far
northern Montana Friday afternoon and evening as an upper-level
trough moves through southern Canada. In addition to 15 to 20 mph
surface winds that are expected in this region, thunderstorms are
also possible along the cold front which could trigger gusty outflow
winds and lead to lightning caused starts in this region.
...North central Idaho and western Montana... Thunderstorms are
expected along a cold front that will be moving through Idaho and
into western Montana on Friday. These storms are expected to form
in an environment with PWAT values around 0.75" and storm speeds
around 30 to 35 mph. This storm speed will likely limit rainfall in
any one location and increase the probability of lightning ignitions. ..Bentley.. 08/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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