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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151
PM CDT Thu Aug 01 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND OVER MUCH OF WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are likely from central Kansas
into central Oklahoma. Damaging wind gusts or marginal hail are the
most likely threats. A brief tornado is possible over north-central
Oklahoma or south-central Kansas. Strong wind gusts are possible
over much of western Montana.
...Synopsis... An upper high will remain centered over the Four
Corners states, with modest northwest flow aloft across much of
the Plains. To the west, a shortwave trough will skirt across WA,
northern ID and northwest MT, providing increasing deep shear and
cooling aloft which will aid destabilization.
At the surface, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will generally exist
from the central and southern Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic,
with high pressure causing stable conditions from the Midwest into
the Northeast.
Low pressure will develop during the afternoon over western OK and
the TX Panhandle, with a north-south warm front from central KS
into northern OK. Hot conditions will be found over TX and western
OK, which will aid in storm development generally northeast of the
surface low.
...Central KS into central OK... Thunderstorms are likely to be
ongoing in the morning over much of eastern KS, with scattered
showers/storms into northeast OK as well. Much of this activity
is expected to thin out by early afternoon as mass fields focus
west toward the developing low. Strong heating will result in an
uncapped air mass from central KS into OK, with MLCAPE averaging
2000 J/kg within the theta-e axis. Storm initiation is expected near
21Z along the warm front in KS, and within the low-level lapse rate
plume into western OK which will also be near the low.
The corridor near I-35 and along the warm front will have lower
LCLs, and a band of 200+ m2/s2 SRH. Forecast hodographs are
sufficiently long to sustain south or even southwestward moving
cells, including a few supercells. Sporadic hail or a brief tornado
is possible. However, the most likely threat for the region is
expected to be a few damaging wind gusts as storms spread south and
into the steep low-level lapse rate environment. A small Slight
Risk cannot be ruled out in later outlooks should confidence in
storm coverage and positioning increase.
...Central ID into western MT... Strong heating will occur over
ID and MT, beneath strengthening southwest flow aloft along the
periphery of the upper ridge. At the same time, cooling aloft
will occur, and this will result in very steep lapse rates from
the surface through 500 mb. Given these profiles, moisture will
be sufficient for high-based thunderstorms to form over central
ID and into western MT during the afternoon. Deep-layer shear in
the cloud-bearing layer will favor both cellular activity and small
lines resulting in outflow, and a few wind gusts may approach severe
levels. Any cells will also be capable of mainly small hail given
the low moisture content.
..Jewell/Bentley.. 08/02/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243
AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop
Saturday across parts of the northern and southern Plains.
...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the Four Corners will
remain in place on Saturday, influencing the sensible weather
across much of the western and central CONUS. Modest flow aloft
will exist around this upper ridging, with westerly flow across
the northern High Plains veering to northerly across the central
and southern Plains. Weak cyclonic flow aloft will persist across
the eastern CONUS.
A predominantly nondescript surface pattern is anticipated across the
majority of the CONUS. The only exceptions are across the northern
High Plains, where the tail end of a cold front is expected to move
through Saturday evening, and the southern Plains, where a low is
expected to drift southward across northwest TX.
...Northern Plains... Despite strong boundary-layer mixing,
dewpoints will likely remain in the low 60s along and east of a lee
trough extending from southeast WY into eastern MT. The approaching
cold front will likely remain west of this region until late Saturday
evening and the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent will be
displaced north of the international border. Even so, convergence
along the lee trough coupled with favorable low-level moisture
is expected to result in isolated thunderstorm development. Steep
mid-level lapse rates and moderate vertical shear will support an
isolated severe threat with any storms that do develop.
...Southern Plains... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be
ongoing at the beginning of the period across eastern OK. Coverage
and location of this early day convection will influence severe
potential downstream across southern OK and northern TX. Current
expectation is for this early day convection to move southwestward
under the influence of a low-amplitude shortwave progressing through
eastern OK. As it does, increasing instability and vertical shear
could contribute to strengthening storms and the potential for a
few strong wind gusts.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Mosier.. 08/02/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis... A potent mid-level trough will be moving through
the Pacific Northwest today which will bring potential for both
elevated fire weather conditions and isolated dry thunderstorms in
portions of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies.
...Columbia Basin... Strengthening onshore flow will lead to gap
flow through the Cascades today. In addition, vertical mixing will
lead to breezy and dry conditions in eastern Washington. Therefore,
elevated fire weather conditions are possible with wind speeds
around 15 to 20 mph and relative humidity around 20 to 25 percent.
...Northern Montana... Some dry and breezy conditions are
expected in northern Montana today as a cold front moves through
the area. This may lead to elevated fire weather conditions this
afternoon and evening as relative humidity drops to around 15 to
20 percent and winds increase to around 15 mph.
...Isolated dry thunderstorms - Northeast Washington... Isolated
dry thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the beginning of
the period in northeast Washington with fast-moving storms in an
environment with PWAT around 0.6". These storms are only expected
to continue for a few hours of the morning with the dry thunderstorm
threat ending by mid morning.
...Isolated dry thunderstorms - Central Idaho into western Montana...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon from central
Idaho and northwest Montana along and near a cold front that is
moving through the region. While storm coverage is expected to be
scattered, kept the forecast isolated as storms are expected to be a combination of wet and dry. Also, fuels are likely a combination of
critical and moist, especially in central Idaho and far southwest
Montana where several consecutive days of thunderstorms have
occurred.
..Bentley.. 08/02/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Generally weak flow across much of the western
CONUS should limit the overall threat for dry and windy fire weather
conditions on Saturday. The best chance for elevated fire weather
conditions will be in north-central Montana, but forecast flow is
too weak (10 to 15 mph) at this time to include an elevated area. Thunderstorms, some of which may be dry, are possible in
south-central Montana, but fuels across much of this region are not
quite favorable at this time. Therefore, no isolated dry thunderstorm
areas have been included in this outlook.
..Bentley.. 08/02/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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