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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145
PM CDT Fri Aug 02 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon over the northern High Plains. A few storms producing
strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out from Oklahoma into north Texas. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian
Prairies, with a flattening of an upper ridge over MT. Midlevel winds
of 30-35 kt will progress across MT and into the western Dakotas,
with 500 mb temperatures cooling to around -10 C. At the surface,
a weak front/wind shift will approach the MT/ND border during late
afternoon, providing lift of an unstable air mass with dewpoints
near 60 F.
To the south, an upper high will remain centered over the Four
Corners states, with northerly midlevel winds of 25-30 kt from the
central Plains into north TX. Here, a plume of upper 60s to low
70s F dewpoints will remain, providing sufficient instability for
areas of thunderstorms despite warm temperatures aloft. The primary
focus for daytime storms will be near an inverted surface trough,
roughly from north TX into central OK.
Elsewhere, scattered daytime storms will occur over parts of the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic, well east of the upper high and where
temperatures aloft will be relatively cool.
...Northern High Plains... Strong heating combined with cooling
aloft will result in steep lapse rates through a deep layer, with
an uncapped air mass near a north-south oriented boundary moving
across eastern MT. A band of 35 kt midlevel westerlies, increasing
to 50-60 kt near 300 mb, will provide long hodographs favoring
splitting cells as little if any low-level jet is expected. A few
storms will be capable of severe hail, likely developing around 21Z,
from the eastern border of MT toward the Black Hills. Storms are
not expected to get too far east into the Dakotas due to capping. A
few strong wind gusts are also possible.
...Central OK into north TX... Areas of showers and
thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing early in the morning over central/east-central OK, and possibly approaching the Red River and
into northeast TX by late morning. West of this non-severe activity,
stronger heating will occur. Only weak surface convergence will
exist over western north TX into southwest OK, but it will likely
support isolated afternoon redevelopment. Forecast soundings show
perhaps 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with weakly veering winds with height and
little shear. While a few strong storms producing localized wind
gusts cannot be ruled out, at this time the severe threat appears
too low for a risk area.
..Jewell/Nauslar.. 08/03/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND...NORTHEAST SD...AND NORTHWEST MN...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm are possible across portions of
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday.
...Synopsis... Upper ridging centered over the southern High Plains
early Sunday is expected to slowly drift westward/southwestward
throughout the day. Northeastern portion of this upper ridge is
expected to dampen in response to a shortwave trough moving through
the Canadian Prairie Provinces and into northwest Ontario and the
adjacent Upper Midwest. In contrast, some building of the ridge is
anticipated across the Pacific Northwest. At same time, broad and
generally weak cyclonic flow is anticipated across the eastern CONUS.
Surface pattern will predominantly be characterized by a weak
gradient and diffuse baroclinicity. The only exception is across the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest, where a cold front is expected
to move through Sunday afternoon and evening.
...Northern Plains...Upper Midwest... A cold front is expected to
move through eastern portions of the northern Plains and into the
Upper Midwest on Sunday afternoon and evening. Ample low-level
moisture will likely exist ahead of this front, with dewpoints
likely in the mid to upper 60s. This favorable low-level moisture
coupled with convergence along the front and steep low-level lapse
rates is expected to result in thunderstorm development.
Mid-level lapse rates will be modest but the warm and moist surface
conditions will help support moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely
around 2000 J/kg. Additionally, enhanced mid-level flow will be
spreading into the region, contributing to strengthening vertical
shear. As a result, the environment will likely support strong to
severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and strong wind gusts.
Farther west (across the western Dakotas and adjacent portions
if southeast MT and northeast WY), early morning showers and
thunderstorms will likely give way to mostly clear skies and strong
diurnal heating. Convergence near a triple-point-like feature at
the intersection of the cold front and lee trough is expected to
result in convective initiation. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderate vertical shear support a severe thunderstorm threat with
any storms that do develop. Coverage uncertainty precludes higher probabilities with this forecast, but increased probabilities may
be needed in future outlooks.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Mosier.. 08/03/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The Four Corners high remains in place with
mostly wet thunderstorms developing across the region this
afternoon/evening. An upper-level shortwave trough will move
across southwest Canada and likely result in downslope flow across northwest/north-central Montana. Locally elevated conditions will
likely develop with westerly sustained winds around 15 mph and
RH values of 20-30%. Elevated conditions may also develop across
portions of southern California as very dry and breezy conditions
are expected during the afternoon and evening including possible
Sundowner winds.
..Nauslar.. 08/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 03 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The Four Corners high will weaken slightly as an
upper-level shortwave trough tracks southeast across the northern
Plains on Sunday. However, the upper-level ridge will likely amplify
into British Columbia in the wake of this trough passage. Weak
mid-level troughing off the West Coast will help transport moisture
northward in the Intermountain West, including the inland Pacific
Northwest.
While upper-level heights will likely rise over Oregon on Sunday,
guidance suggests the increase of sub-tropical moisture aided by a
weak mid-level disturbance could result in isolated dry thunderstorms
in central/eastern Oregon. However, given the low predictability
of this forecast, no areas were included. Additionally, elevated
conditions may develop across inland portions of southern California
Sunday afternoon/evening.
..Nauslar.. 08/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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