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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
https://slacko.home.blog +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220
AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms may impact the
northern High Plains, much of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota
this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for potentially damaging
wind gusts and large hail.
...Synopsis... Downstream of a blocking mid/upper high centered
near/south of the Gulf of Alaska, models indicate that the
westerlies will trend northwesterly during this period, across
the Yukon Territory into the central Canadian prairie provinces.
Within this regime, a significant short wave trough, currently
progressing through the Canadian prairies, appears likely to continue
eastward and southeastward, across Manitoba and adjacent portions of
the Canadian/U.S. border area into northwestern Ontario and portions
of the upper Great Lakes region by 12Z Monday. Stronger mid-level
height falls may remain north of the international border through
much of the day today, but at least some suppression of mid-level
ridging is forecast into areas south of the border, across parts
of the Upper Midwest and northern U.S. Plains this evening into
the overnight hours.
Otherwise, subtropical ridging appears likely to remain prominent
inland of the Pacific coast, centered over the Four Corners states,
but encompassing much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and
central/southern Plains. Farther east, weak mid-level troughing
will prevail within the subtropical westerlies, east of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley into the mid and southern Atlantic Coast region.
A gradual eastward progression of the trough is likely, but it
is forecast to lag to the south and west of troughing within the
mid-latitude westerlies progressing across and east of the Canadian
Maritimes and New England.
Low-level cooling and drying associated with the lead wave in
the mid-latitude westerlies is expected to overspread much of the
Northeast today. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
along or ahead of the cold front, across parts of the lower Great
Lakes region into northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England.
However, seasonably high moisture content probably will remain
confined to the Gulf and south Atlantic Coast states, with richer
tropical moisture also in a narrow plume across southern portions
of the Florida peninsula into the western Atlantic, focused on
the western periphery of ridging over the subtropical Atlantic.
This moisture is expected to contribute to more substantive potential
for thunderstorm activity, which will be mostly diurnal in nature.
Around the western periphery of the Western subtropical high, models
suggest that there may some eastward progression of drying across
the Great Basin, but remnant monsoonal moisture may still support
fairly widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening
across the higher terrain of the eastern Great Basin into Rockies.
Lee surface troughing across the northern Plains, and a cold front
near the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity, are expected to
provide focus for additional thunderstorms today into tonight.
This activity is expected to pose the most substantive risk for
severe wind and hail.
...Northern Plains... There is expected to be sufficient boundary
layer moisture to support CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, beneath
fairly steep lapse rates associated with elevated mixed-layer air.
Models suggest that this will become focused within a corridor of
stronger daytime heating, ahead of the stalling or slow moving
surface front near the Canadian/U.S. border, and perhaps in the
vicinity of a thermal low developing near the Black Hills region.
The Black Hills region remains a little more unclear, with model
output indicating potential for early convective development,
possibly aided by forcing for ascent associated with a perturbation
migrating around the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge.
Otherwise, mid/upper forcing for ascent south of the international
border prior to this evening remains unclear, but strengthening of
westerly mid/upper flow (including 30-40+ kt near or above 500 mb)
probably will contribute to sufficient deep-layer shear for organized convection, including isolated supercells, capable of producing
severe hail and strong surface gusts. Mid-level inhibition may
weaken sufficiently near/after peak daytime heating to support
the initiation of at least scattered thunderstorm activity, with
potential for at least some upscale growth through this evening,
before boundary-layer instability wanes with the loss of daytime
heating.
..Kerr/Nausler.. 08/04/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255
AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the Middle
Missouri River Valley into the Upper Midwest on Monday.
...Synopsis... Expansive upper ridging will remain centered over the
Four Corners on Monday. Some dampening of the northeastern periphery
of this upper ridge (i.e. over the northern Plains/Upper Midwest)
will likely occur as low-amplitude shortwave troughs move through
the persistent northwesterly flow aloft. Over the eastern CONUS, a
shortwave trough initially extending from the central OH Valley to
the central Gulf Coast progresses slowly eastward. The progression
of this shortwave will help maintain broadly cyclonic flow aloft
over the eastern CONUS.
At the surface, a cold front will likely extend from far northeast
Ontario southwestward through the MN Arrowhead and central MN to
a low over south-central SD early Monday morning. Expectation is
for this front to push southeastward throughout the day, reaching
Lower MI, the mid MS Valley, and the central Plains by early
Tuesday morning.
...Central Plains...Upper Midwest...Upper Great Lakes...
A moist air mass will be in place ahead of the approaching front,
with dewpoints likely in the upper 60s/low 70s during the early
afternoon. Relatively warm mid-level temperatures aloft will keep
lapse rates modest but the ample low-level moisture will still
support moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE likely over 2000 J/kg. The
highest instability is anticipated to occur across IA and eastern
NE. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will increase
across the region as a shortwave trough moves through Ontario,
with a resulting increase in vertical shear.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front during the
afternoon and evening. Environment supports organized storms and,
given the linear forcing, an initially cellular development will
likely transition quickly to bowing line segments. Large hail and
strong wind gusts are the primary threats.
...Central/Northern High Plains... Moist post-frontal upslope flow
will help destabilize the air mass amidst diurnal heating. Steep
mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate buoyancy. Forcing
provided by a combination of moist upslope flow and convergence
along the lee trough or a subtle, low-amplitude shortwave trough is
expected to result in convective initiation. Strengthening vertical
shear will be strong enough to support a few severe storms. Coverage uncertainty precludes higher probabilities with this forecast,
but increased probabilities may be needed in future outlooks.
...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic... A broad shortwave trough is
expected to progress eastward off the East Coast on Monday. This
shortwave will likely move into the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic during
peak heating, resulting in numerous thunderstorms. Weak shear will
preclude an organized severe risk, with short-lived multicells as
the predominant storm mode.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Mosier.. 08/04/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2019
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...Synopsis... The Four Corners high will weaken slightly as an
mid-level shortwave trough tracks southeast across the northern
High Plains today. Upper-level ridging will amplify into British
Columbia behind the upper-level trough passage over Saskatchewan
and Manitoba with weak troughing off the West Coast.
Guidance suggests a weak mid-level shortwave/disturbance is forecast
to move over northern California/Oregon today and water vapor
imagery shows a feature off the California coast currently. The
slight increase of sub-tropical moisture and weak forcing for ascent
may offset larger-scale height rises across the region and help
initiate isolated dry thunderstorms during the afternoon/evening.
Coverage will be quite isolated and not all forecast guidance
suggests storms develop. However, given the dry fuels and likely
dry nature of the storms, an area was maintained.
..Nauslar.. 08/04/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The Four Corners high will remain in place on Monday
with a negatively tilted upper-level ridge stretching into British
Columbia and weak upper-level troughing off the West Coast. Hot,
dry conditions will prevail across inland portions of the West Coast
into the Great Basin with thunderstorms likely remaining confined
to the Southwest, Utah, and the Rockies. There is a chance for
isolated dry thunderstorms from far northern California into Oregon,
but there is too much uncertainty to include an area at this time.
..Nauslar.. 08/04/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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