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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 551 SEVERE TSTM MN ND 050420Z - 051200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 551 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 PM CDT Sun
Aug 4 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northwestern
Minnesota Parts of northern and eastern North Dakota
* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 1120 PM until
700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms will likely increase in an east-west
band and move southeastward overnight across central and eastern
North Dakota, potentially reaching northwestern Minnesota during the
early morning hours. The initial storms, some of which could be
supercells, will pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds.
The damaging wind threat could increase some with storm clustering
overnight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north of
Dickinson ND to 30 miles northeast of Fargo ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
30030.
...Thompson
WW 0551 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 551
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..08/05/19
ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 551
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC027-107-119-167-050740-
MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY NORMAN POLK WILKIN NDC003-005-017-021-025-027-031-035-039-043-045-047-049-053-055- 057-061-063-069-071-073-077-081-083-091-093-097-101-103-105- 050740-
ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARNES BENSON CASS DICKEY
DUNN EDDY FOSTER GRAND FORKS
GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCHENRY
MCKENZIE MCLEAN MERCER MOUNTRAIL
NELSON PIERCE RAMSEY RANSOM RICHLAND
SARGENT SHERIDAN STEELE STUTSMAN
TRAILL WARD WELLS WILLIAMS
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243
AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY BY THIS EVENING...
...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of thunderstorms may
develop across parts of the Upper Midwest, southwestward into the
middle Missouri Valley, posing a risk for swaths of potentially
damaging wind gusts and hail today through tonight.
...Synopsis... Models indicate little general change to the
large-scale pattern through this period.
Subtropical ridging, centered over the Four Corners states, appears
likely to remain prominent across much of the Intermountain West,
Rockies and central/southern Plains. In the wake of perturbations
migrating around the western through northern periphery of this
circulation, there may be further drying across parts of the
Great Basin into the Rockies, but remnant monsoonal moisture is
still expected to support at least scattered thunderstorm activity
across the Mogollon Rim vicinity, the higher terrain of southeastern
Arizona, the Wasatch, and much of the Rockies.
Downstream, a gradual progression of troughing east of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley, toward the mid/south Atlantic Coast, is expected
to continue. Somewhat cooler air aloft associated with this feature
probably will again support considerable diurnal thunderstorm
activity, as it overspreads lingering seasonably high moisture
content across much of the Southeast.
At the same time, in higher latitudes, blocking is forecast to
remain prominent within the westerlies, across much of the eastern
Pacific into Gulf of Alaska, with a long fetch of northwesterly
mid/upper flow downstream, from Alaska and the Yukon Territory
through the central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. A significant
leading short wave trough within this regime is forecast to turn
eastward across northern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region
today through tonight, while another digs southeast of the Canadian
Northwest Territories.
A somewhat more subtle perturbation trailing the lead wave is
currently contributing substantive (30+ meter) 500 mb height falls
near the North Dakota/Minnesota international border area. This may
develop southeastward through much of North Dakota into the Upper
Midwest by daybreak. Coupled with another impulse digging around
the northeastern periphery of the subtropical ridge, mid-level
ridging may become suppressed as far south/west as the mid to
lower Missouri Valley by late tonight. Associated forcing for
ascent may contribute to considerable thunderstorm development,
ahead of a cold front advancing southeast of the international
border through much of the Great Lakes region, middle Mississippi
Valley and central Plains by 12Z Tuesday. This activity appears
likely to be accompanied by the primary risk for severe weather.
...North central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Mid/upper forcing for ascent is contributing to increasing
thunderstorm activity across North Dakota, which may continue to grow
upscale and organize while developing southeastward into stronger
instability across southern/eastern North Dakota through daybreak.
Due to sizable spread in model output, the extent of continuing
severe weather potential near and beyond 12Z this morning remains
unclear, as activity progresses toward the Upper Midwest, beneath
sheared northwesterly mid/upper flow.
Regardless of whether activity maintains intensity or weakens,
models generally indicate that a moistening boundary layer ahead
of the cold pool will become characterized by moderate to large
CAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) by early this afternoon across parts of the
Upper Midwest into the middle Missouri Valley. Aided by mid/upper
support, moderate to strong shear and inflow of increasingly unstable
air, substantive intensification of convection appears possible
across parts of southeastern Minnesota into Wisconsin by midday.
Thereafter, a southwestward propagation or redevelopment of vigorous
and upscale growing convection into the mid Missouri Valley is
expected through this afternoon and evening. Although northwesterly
deep-layer ambient mean wind fields may be modest to weak in strength
(around or less than 20 kt), thermodynamic profiles appear favorable
for the development of strong cold pools, which will pose a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts while tending to surge southeastward
and southward.
..Kerr/Karstens.. 08/05/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252
AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2019
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal severe
threat will be possible across parts of the central and northern
Plains on Tuesday.
...Central and Northern Plains... An upper-level trough is
forecast to move eastward across the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday as northwest mid-level flow remains established across the north-central states. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward across the northern Plains. By late afternoon,
the front should be located from near Rapid City, SD northeastward
to near Fargo, ND. Ahead of the front surface dewpoints are forecast
to range from the mid 50s F near Rapid City to the mid 60s F in
the mid Missouri Valley. As surface heating takes place, a pocket
of moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the front
from central Nebraska into southeastern South Dakota. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible near the instability axis during
the late afternoon. A few thunderstorms should also develop along
the front further to the northwest. The instability combined with
steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear (owing to
directional shear in the low to mid-levels), should be enough for
an isolated severe threat. Cells that move southeastward across the
central and northern Plains may organize into short line segments
capable of marginally severe wind gusts. A supercell also can not
be ruled out but will be conditional upon if a storm can initiate
in the strongest instability. Large-scale ascent will be limited
across the region keeping development isolated. For this reason,
a marginal risk area should be sufficient for this outlook.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Broyles.. 08/05/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... High pressure located over the Desert Southwest/Four
Corners region will remain quasi-stationary throughout the day,
with a highly amplified/diffuse ridge present over much of the
West. Consequently, mid-level flow is anticipated to be marginal
at best. Despite hot/dry conditions at the surface, winds should
remain generally light in areas of the West with receptive
fuels. Additionally, the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms
appears low for most areas west of the Rockies where fuels are
receptive, and thus, no fire-weather highlights have been included
at this time.
..Karstens.. 08/05/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2019
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... High pressure will remain anchored in the Desert
Southwest/Four Corners region, along with a highly amplified/diffuse upper-level ridge extending into the upper Great Basin/Pacific
Northwest. Consequently, surface winds should generally remain
light over the region.
In addition, a subtle short-wave trough should propagate through the
crest of the upper-level ridge by early evening. This feature may
coincide with isolated convective development over portions of the
Pacific Northwest/upper Great Basin by mid-afternoon. However, no
highlights have been included at this time. A north-south gradient
in PWAT values will exist, and the most recent high-resolution
guidance suggests convection will mostly occur in areas where PWAT
values exceed 0.75 inches. There may exist a narrow corridor where
convective potential overlaps PWATs near and below 0.75 inches,
and should this become evident in forthcoming convection-allowing
guidance, an area indicating dry/isolated thunderstorm potential
may be needed.
..Karstens.. 08/05/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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