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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
https://slacko.home.blog +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252
AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2019
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across
the northern Plains late this afternoon and evening, particularly
across parts of the central Dakotas, where a few storms may become
capable of producing very large hail and strong wind gusts.
...Synopsis... Models indicate that much of the Intermountain
West and Rockies, into the southern Plains, will remain under
the influence of mid/upper subtropical ridging, centered over the
Four Corners states. While lingering moisture beneath the ridge
may once again support scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity
across the Mogollon Rim vicinity, Wasatch, and southern Rockies,
weak perturbations progressing around the periphery of the ridge
may contribute to widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms across
the northern intermountain region and northern Rockies into portions
of the northern and central Plains.
Downstream of the ridging, the remnants of initial weak mid-level
troughing are forecast to accelerate northeast of the Atlantic
Seaboard. A preceding plume of tropical moisture will continue
advecting through the western Atlantic, although it may still trail
back into the Florida Peninsula, where scattered diurnal thunderstorm
activity appears likely. Despite low/mid-level drying in the wake of
the troughing, weak residual low-level moisture may remain sufficient
to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm activity across
the Gulf and mid/south Atlantic coast region, with daytime heating,
in the presence of relatively weak inhibition.
Meanwhile, it appears that larger-scale troughing east of the
Mississippi Valley into the Atlantic Seaboard may be reinforced
by a digging/amplifying perturbation across parts of the middle
Mississippi into lower Ohio Valley, today through tonight.
Forcing for ascent associated with this feature may contribute
to thunderstorm development along/south of an initial southward
advancing cold front, which is expected to reach the lower Great
Lakes and middle Mississippi Valley by 12Z this morning, before
continue into southern New England/northern Mid Atlantic coastal
areas and the Ohio Valley by daybreak Wednesday.
While blocking remains prominent within the mid/upper flow over
the mid-latitude eastern Pacific into the Gulf of Alaska vicinity,
a long fetch of northwesterly flow is expected to persist across
Alaska and the Canadian Rockies, into the central Canadian/U.S.
border vicinity. Within this regime, it does appear that another
significant short wave trough will dig across the central Canadian
provinces, with a deepening embedded closed low. Stronger forcing
for ascent likely will remain north of the Canadian/U.S. border
through much of this period, but an associated surface cold front
is forecast to advance south of the international border and may
provide a focus for increasing thunderstorm development tonight.
...Northern Plains... Moderate to strong northwesterly mid/upper
flow (including 30-50 kt at 500 mb) likely will contribute to strong
deep layer shear ahead of the cold front advancing across and south
of the international border, and within pre-frontal troughing across
the central Dakotas by late afternoon. Primary uncertainties with
regard to severe weather potential concern forcing for convective
development, and to a lesser extent boundary-layer destabilization
in the wake of a preceding surface front.
It does appear that there will be a narrow corridor of modest
moisture return on southerly low-level flow, east of the surface
troughing across the Dakotas during the day, and northeastward
ahead of the cold front into northern Minnesota by tonight.
This is expected to contribute to CAPE at least on the order
of 1000-2000 J/kg, with daytime heating, with some guidance
indicating even greater destabilization is possible. Even so,
most guidance indicates that mid/upper support for the initiation
of late afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity will likely be
associated with a subtle mid-level impulse rounding the periphery of
the subtropical ridge. The extent to which forcing associated with
such a feature can support convective development remains unclear.
Based on a consensus of model output, convective initiation
seems most probable within pre-frontal troughing, perhaps near a
developing thermal low, over parts of southwestern into south central
North Dakota by late this afternoon, before tending to propagate
southeastward and southward through portions of central/eastern
South Dakota this evening. Given wind profiles with generally
small low-level hodographs, but strong deep-layer shear, a few
supercells are possible, which may pose a risk for large to very
large hail and strong surface gusts, before convection wanes with
the loss of heating this evening.
With stronger destabilization, there may be at least some potential
for the evolution of an upscale growing, organized convective system
and southward development into Nebraska this evening/overnight,
accompanied by severe wind/hail potential. However, at this point, probabilities for this still appear low.
...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes... Wind
fields and shear are expected to be generally weak, but moderate
boundary-layer destabilization along/ahead of the lead southward
advancing front may contribute to considerable thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening, some of which may pose a
risk for potentially damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Dean.. 08/06/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WI...SOUTHEAST MN...EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and
locally damaging wind gusts across portions of the Upper Midwest
on Wednesday. Additional strong thunderstorms may produce areas
of strong wind gusts across portions of the Carolinas to the
Mid-Atlantic.
...Upper Midwest Vicinity...
An upper shortwave trough will track southeast from the northern
Plains to the upper Great Lakes in strong northwesterly deep-layer
flow. A warm and moist (mid/upper 60s F dewpoints) boundary layer
beneath modest midlevel lapse rates will result in a moderately
unstable airmass ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front.
Forecast soundings indicate long, straight hodographs with 25-35 kt
effective shear in the strongest profiles. This environment should
support marginal supercells capable of large hail and locally
damaging wind gusts with the strongest cells.
...Central Plains to the Mid-MO Valley Vicinity...
Further southwest, the severe threat becomes more unclear. Some
guidance suggests morning convection will be ongoing across parts
of KS/MO and may inhibit severe potential through peak heating.
Convection is expected to develop over higher terrain of CO and
eastern WY, but warm midlevels and weakening northwesterly flow
with westward extent should limit severe potential across eastern
CO and western KS. As the surface cold front surges southeast
across the Upper Midwest, it will become more nebulous across NE. East/southeasterly low level flow will transport moisture northwest
across KS/NE and pockets of moderate to strong instability are
forecast. A conditional threat for large hail and damaging wind
gusts is possible, and is dependent on evolution of possible
morning convection, eventual boundary locations and other mesoscale
processes that are not being resolved well between various guidance
at this time.
...Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England...
An upper trough will pivot eastward on Wednesday, spreading 30-40
kt midlevel southwesterly flow across the region. Surface dewpoints
in the mid 60s to low 70s will be transported northward across the
Piedmont of NC/VA into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong heating
through this corridor will result in moderate to strong instability
and thunderstorms will develop over higher terrain during the
early afternoon. As convection spreads eastward, some guidance
suggests upscale growth is possible, with one or more line segments
tracking across the region. Effective shear is somewhat marginal,
around 25 kt, and midlevel lapse rates modest. But higher PW values
and pockets of steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient
for storm organization along outflows and areas of damaging wind
will be possible. At this time, its still unclear where greater
potential will develop and will maintain Marginal probs at this
time, though upgrades could be needed in subsequent updates if
current trends continue.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Leitman.. 08/06/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2019
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across
the Southwest into the Great Basin today. A mid/upper-level
low is forecast to remain off of the Pacific Northwest coast
through the period, with one or more weak shortwave troughs
potentially moving northward into the interior Northwest and/or
western Great Basin between the low and the upper ridge to the
east. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across
the central/southern Rockies, with more isolated activity possible
into the interior Northwest.
...Northern California into Oregon... Strong heating/mixing
will support isolated thunderstorm potential across portions of
northern CA and much of OR this afternoon into the early evening. A
conditional risk of lightning-related ignitions will be present, with
receptive fuels in place and generally limited rainfall expected,
so the ISODRYT area has been maintained from the Cascade Range into
the Blue Mountains of northeast OR.
..Dean.. 08/06/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...Synopsis... Some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over
the Southwest and Great Basin is expected on Wednesday, as the
upper low off of the Pacific coast gradually shifts eastward and
smaller-scale shortwave troughs move around the periphery of the
ridge. Moisture will gradually increase into portions of the Great
Basin, supporting a threat of at least isolated thunderstorms.
...Interior Northwest into northwest NV... At least isolated
thunderstorm coverage is expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night across portions of the interior Northwest into northwest NV,
with some potential for greater coverage depending on the timing
and placement of shortwaves moving around the periphery of the
upper ridge. While some increase in moisture is forecast compared
to D1/Tuesday, substantial rainfall is generally not expected across
the region, and thunderstorm activity will pose a risk of ignitions
given the presence of receptive fuels.
..Dean.. 08/06/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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