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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM
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WW 557 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 070120Z - 070800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 557 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 820 PM CDT Tue
Aug 6 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Parts of north central
and central Nebraska Parts of south central and southeast South
Dakota
* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 820 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of severe storms, including some supercells,
will continue to spread south-southeastward from South Dakota into
Nebraska overnight, with additional storm development also possible.
The storm environment will favor large hail and damaging gusts as
the primary severe threats through the early morning hours.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of
Chamberlain SD to 55 miles south southeast of Burwell NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 555...WW 556...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
32030.
...Thompson
WW 0557 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 557
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW ANW TO
20 NE ANW TO 25 NNW ONL TO 20 NNE ONL TO 45 W OFK TO 20 WNW OLU. ..EDWARDS..08/07/19
ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID...FSD...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 557
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-011-017-041-071-077-089-093-115-125-149-163-175-183- 070740-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BOONE BROWN CUSTER
GARFIELD GREELEY HOLT HOWARD
LOUP NANCE ROCK SHERMAN VALLEY
WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0556 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 556
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW PIR TO
45 SSW ABR TO 35 W BKX.
..JEWELL..08/07/19
ATTN...WFO...BIS...ABR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 556
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NDC031-103-070340-
ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FOSTER WELLS
SDC017-059-065-069-075-085-115-117-119-070340-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUFFALO HAND HUGHES HYDE
JONES LYMAN SPINK STANLEY
SULLY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1658 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL AL AND NORTHEASTERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1658 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0123 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019
Areas affected...portions of northern/central AL and northeastern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 070623Z - 070900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts, some near severe limits, may
occur with a southeastward-moving band of thunderstorms during the
next few hours. A watch is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION...A loosely organized, multicellular thunderstorm
cluster was evident at 06Z crossing from southern TN into portions
of northeastern MS and northern AL along an instability gradient.
The thermodynamic environment was characterized by rich low-level
moisture -- manifest in low/mid 70s F surface dew points, though
modified 00Z BMX RAOB and RAP soundings indicate only about 1.3-
1.5-inch total PW thanks to a dry layer above the surface. Nocturnal stabilization, and the presence of that dry layer, has offsetting
effects: 1. Rendering MUCAPE unrepresentative on the high side
while minimizing MLCAPE, with the latter ranging from around 1000
J/kg in central MS to only around 250 J/kg in northeastern AL,
and 2. Support evaporative cooling and downdraft acceleration
in that layer just above the surface. It is uncertain how much
such downward parcel acceleration can overcome a gradually cooling
near-surface layer (with associated increase in static stability)
to render severe wind at the surface, but damaging gusts cannot be
ruled out in the most intense cores.
Kinematically, low-level flow should remain very weak, with
west-northwesterly to northwesterly 850-mb winds minimizing
storm-relative flow in the inflow layer. Regardless, the
forward-propagational component of convective motion should be
sufficient to sustain some inflow for a few more hours, amidst about
30-40 kt ambient effective-shear magnitudes. While a severe (50+
kt) gust cannot be ruled out, the potential currently appears too
isolated and marginal for a watch.
..Edwards/Broyles.. 08/07/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34848893 34838883 34788818 34788747 34628674 33718643
33168655 32948804 33218903 34908918 34848893
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today into tonight
across parts of the Mid Atlantic Coast states into portions of
western New England, across parts of the Upper Midwest, and across
parts of the central Plains. These will pose are risk for large
hail and potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Synopsis... Blocking appears likely to remain prominent across
the mid-latitude eastern Pacific through this period, with a long
fetch of northwesterly mid/upper flow downstream, across Alaska
and the Yukon Territory through the central Canadian/U.S. border
vicinity. On the leading edge of this regime, a large short
wave trough and embedded mid-level closed low are forecast to
continue digging southeastward, across northern Ontario and the
upper Great Lakes region. Models indicate that this will be
accompanied by another notable cold front, which is forecast to
advance southeastward across much of the northern Plains, Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region by daybreak Thursday.
This will be preceded by another cold front, associated with
large-scale troughing within a weaker branch of westerlies at lower
latitudes, which is expected to continue gradually shifting east of
the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. The lead front
may progress southeastward into the Mid Atlantic coast, and more
slowly southward through the Tennessee Valley/Ozark Plateau region.
It may be reinforced by convective outflow, before stalling across
eastern portions of the central Plains.
A mid/upper subtropical high, centered over the Four Corners states,
may begin to weaken, but large-scale ridging is expected to remain
a prominent influence across much of the Intermountain West/Rockies
and southern Plains.
Subtle short wave perturbations progressing around the periphery
of the ridging, into the southern periphery of the broad troughing
over the Tennessee Valley/eastern Gulf states, may provide the
support and focus for organizing clusters of thunderstorms today
through tonight, in the presence of moderate to strong instability.
However, the predictability of these features remains relatively
low, resulting in only marginal severe probabilities, except
across eastern portions of the central Plains. Otherwise, forcing
for ascent associated with the more prominent short waves, and
destabilization ahead of their associated cold fronts, appear to
provide more certain support for severe thunderstorm development.
...Mid Atlantic Coast states into western New England... Although
the plume of tropical moisture has advected ahead an initial short
wave trough, well east of the Atlantic Seaboard (aside from the
southern Florida Peninsula), low-level moisture appears to remain
sufficient to support moderate CAPE along pre-frontal surface
troughing near/east of the Appalachians. As destabilization
commences with daytime heating, 20-40 kt south/southwesterly flow
in the 850-500 mb layer is expected to overspread the region and
contribute to at least marginally sufficient shear to organize
convection and support a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts
and some hail. This will be aided by forcing for ascent associated
with several smaller-scale perturbations. This may include one
mid-level cyclonic vorticity maximum and associated developing area
of low pressure, that could contribute to at least low probabilities
for a tornado or two across parts of Upstate New York into the
Hudson/Champlain Valleys.
...Upper Midwest... Mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent in
the exit region of a 50+ kt mid-level jet propagating around the
southern periphery of the vigorous digging upper trough will provide
support for thunderstorm development late this afternoon or evening.
With models generally suggest CAPE at least on the order of 1000-2000
J/kg across parts of eastern Minnesota into Wisconsin and portions
of upper Michigan, the environment is expected to become conducive
to isolated supercells and small organizing storm clusters posing
a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts.
...Eastern portions of the central Plains... Uncertainty exists
concerning the extent and intensity of a possible early period
cluster of storms now developing across parts of central/eastern
Nebraska. However, models generally indicate that an associated
outflow boundary/zone of stronger differential surface heating
will provide a potential focus for organized severe thunderstorm
development late this afternoon into tonight. Large CAPE along and
south of the boundary, coupled with favorable shear beneath at least
moderate northwest mid-level flow, may become supportive of isolated
supercells by early this evening. The nose of a strengthening
southerly low-level jet (including 30-40+ kt at 850 mb) may provide
the focus for an upscale growing and organizing convective system
across northeastern Kansas late this evening into the overnight
hours, which could pose a risk for strong surface gusts.
..Kerr/Dean.. 08/07/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259
AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL IN
INTO OH...THE NORTHERN WV PANHANDLE...WESTERN PA AND FAR WESTERN
NY...
...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail
and locally damaging wind gusts are expected Thursday afternoon
and evening across portions of the Midwest from Indiana to western
Pennsylvania and far western New York.
...Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...
An upper trough over the upper Great Lakes will pivot eastward across
the Midwest on Thursday, spreading strong northwesterly deep-layer
flow across the region. At the surface, west/southwesterly
low-level winds will transport mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
eastward across the Ohio Valley toward the lower Great Lakes ahead
of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Strong heating in this
corridor of richer boundary-layer moisture will result in moderate
instability (1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) in the presence of 30-40 kt
effective shear. Convection may be ongoing Thursday morning across
southwest MI and should increase and intensify by early afternoon
across OH/IN, shifting southeast toward western NY/PA through the afternoon/evening.
Vertical shear will support sustained cells with rotating updrafts
and perhaps even some supercell structures, and long, straight
forecast hodographs indicate a threat for large hail. While midlevel
lapse rates are modest (around 6.5 C/km), CAPE/shear parameters
should compensate some and most intense cells will be capable of
large hail. 0-3 km lapse rates are also modest, but relatively fast
storm motion could result in locally strong wind gusts.
The severe threat becomes more uncertain/conditional with westward
extent into west-central IN and IL. While steeper lapse rates and
stronger instability will be in place with similar shear profiles
as those to the east, forecast soundings indicate this area may
be under the influence of midlevel subsidence. This scenario would
suppress convection across the area. However, if storms do develop
further west, thermodynamic and kinematic parameters certainly
would support a severe threat.
...Portions of the High Plains into KS/OK...
The upper ridge will shift east on Thursday, becoming oriented over
the northern High Plains southward to western TX during the second
half of the period. This will keep the region on the southern fringes
of stronger northwesterly deep-layer flow. At the surface, a warm
front will stall near the OK/KS border and be a focus for potential
heavy rain. Some severe threat could develop in the vicinity of the
warm front, but several rounds of convection between now and then
is resulting in too much uncertainty in evolution of the boundary
layer across that area.
What does seem more likely is at least a low-end severe threat
across parts of the High Plains from northeast NM into eastern
CO/WY, southwest SD and perhaps as far east as the NE Panhandle far
western KS. Southeasterly upslope low-level flow will transport low
50s dewpoints westward along the I-25 corridor, with low to mid 60s
further east. Strong heating will result in storm development over
higher terrain by early afternoon. Midlevel flow will be somewhat
weak, but effective shear greater than 40 kt and MLCAPE as high
as 1500 J/kg should support sporadic strong cells capable of hail
and perhaps locally damaging gusts during the afternoon and early
evening.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Leitman.. 08/07/2019

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