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WW 459 SEVERE TSTM MT ND 290350Z - 291100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 PM MDT Fri
Jun 28 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Montana
Northwest North Dakota
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 950 PM
until 500 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A linear band of storms will continue to move
east-northeastward through the late evening and overnight hours
across northeast Montana into northwest North Dakota. Locally
damaging winds and some severe hail will be the primary risks,
although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out in the presence of
strengthening low-level shear.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Wolf Point MT to 65 miles east of Williston ND. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 458...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Guyer
WW 0459 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 459
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/29/19
ATTN...WFO...GGW...BIS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 459
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC019-055-083-085-091-290540-
MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DANIELS MCCONE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT
SHERIDAN
NDC013-023-053-061-105-290540-
ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BURKE DIVIDE MCKENZIE MOUNTRAIL
WILLIAMS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MLS TO
65 S GGW TO 25 ESE GGW TO 60 NNW GGW.
..KERR..06/29/19
ATTN...WFO...TFX...GGW...BYZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 458
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC033-105-290540-
MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARFIELD VALLEY
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101
AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...AND NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with large hail, damaging wind
gusts, and a couple tornadoes will be possible across parts of the
Dakotas into Minnesota today. Additional severe storms with damaging
wind gusts and hail may occur across across parts of the Northeast
and Mid Atlantic.
...Northern Plains... Upper ridging centered over the Plains will
shift eastward towards the Upper Midwest today as upper trough/low
moves eastward over AB/SK and MT/ND. Mid-level west-southwesterly
flow will strengthen across the northern Plains through the
day. Southerly low-level winds will transport rich boundary-layer
moisture northward across the central/eastern Dakotas through the
afternoon ahead of an eastward-moving cold front. Surface dewpoints
will probably reach into the low to mid 70s across this region
along/south of a warm front, with steep mid-level lapse rates and
strong diurnal heating likely resulting in a corridor of moderate
to very strong instability by peak heating. Primary uncertainties
lie with the southward extent of early day convection across ND,
and the potential for capping to limit thunderstorm development
through much of the day.
The most probable scenario will be for early morning storms to
be located along/near the ND/Canada border in association with a
southerly low-level jet. This convection will probably weaken by
mid morning, although there is some potential for this activity
to persist and perhaps grow into a bowing complex that would move
southeastward along the warm front across eastern ND into western MN
by early afternoon. The warm front across ND will probably serve as
a focus for renewed convective development by late afternoon/early
evening as ascent attendant to the upper trough begins to overspread
this region. Effective bulk shear values around 35-45 kt should
support supercells initially, with large hail, damaging winds, and
a couple tornadoes all possible. Very large hail may occur across
parts of ND given the very strong instability expected.
With time, storms may grow upscale into a MCS that would probably
develop southeastward along the instability gradient across
eastern ND into western MN. Damaging winds would then become the
primary threat if this occurred. Considerable uncertainty remains
regarding the placement of greatest wind potential later today,
with a myriad of possible solutions suggested by high-resolution
guidance. Have expanded both the Marginal and Slight Risks across the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest to account for a wider envelope of
potential MCS development and evolution this afternoon into tonight.
Higher wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in
the placement of a damaging-wind-producing MCS today.
...Northeast/Mid Atlantic... A cold front will move eastward across
the Northeast today with northwesterly flow aloft associated with
an amplifying eastern CONUS upper trough. The pre-frontal warm
sector will become moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
and storms are expected to intensify along the front from PA into
southern New England by mid day into early afternoon. A belt of
30-35 kt westerly mid-level winds and the destabilizing boundary
layer should encourage strong to severe wind gusts as activity
develops southeastward through the late afternoon and early
evening. Isolated large hail may also occur where flow aloft is
forecast to be strongest.
...Central/East TX Vicinity... An upper low located over the lower
MS Valley early this morning is forecast to move southwest into
eastern OK and east TX today. At least scattered thunderstorms should
redevelop within a moderately to strongly unstable environment
in association with this feature and subsequently spread
southwestward. Shear will remain modest, with mainly multicell
clusters expected. Still, a favorable thermodynamic environment
will promote a risk for hail and a few strong to severe wind gusts
during the afternoon and early evening.
..Gleason/Nauslar.. 06/29/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235
AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated severe
threat will be possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts
of the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, southern Great
Lakes and High Plains.
...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
An upper-level ridge will move eastward into the western Great Lakes
region on Sunday as an anticyclonic mid-level flow pattern remains
over the north-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is forecast
to move slowly southward into the northern section of the central
Plains and into the upper Mississippi Valley Sunday afternoon.
Surface dewpoints along and to the south of the front should be in
the lower to mid 70s F which will contribute to moderate to strong
instability by afternoon. Although thunderstorms are expected to
develop along parts of the front by mid to late afternoon, warm air
aloft and limited large-scale ascent should keep convective coverage
isolated. If a few storms can become rooted in the boundary layer
during the late afternoon and early evening, then the instability
combined with deep layer shear around 35 kt, would be sufficient for
marginally severe wind gusts and hail. At this point, uncertainty
is too much concerning where the convective threat will maximize
to issue anything more than a marginal risk area.
...Central and Northern High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow
will be in place on Sunday across the western U.S. At the surface,
a corridor of low-level moisture is forecast from western Nebraska northwestward into southeast Montana where a pocket of moderate
instability could develop by Sunday afternoon. Convection that
initiates in the higher terrain on the western edge of the stronger
instability will move eastward into the lower elevations during
the late afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates should be enough for a marginal severe threat. Hail
and isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Broyles.. 06/29/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level low will remain over the Pacific
Northwest, but a shortwave trough will eject east-northeast out
of the Pacific Northwest today. Additionally, a weaker mid-level
shortwave trough will track over the Lower Colorado River Valley
into Utah this afternoon/evening. A surface front will remain
oriented southwest to northeast from central Nevada into Wyoming
with a surface pressure trough extending from the Lower Colorado
River Valley into east-central Nevada/northwest Utah.
...Southern Nevada/vicinity... Elevated conditions are likely to
develop across portions of southern Nevada into far southwest Utah
this afternoon. Sustained south-southwest winds of 15-20 mph and
RH values of 5-15% are likely across much of southern Nevada into
central Nevada and western Utah. However, fuel conditions preclude
an upgrade to critical and a expansion of the elevated area. A weak
mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the region
this evening/tonight, which should increase cloud cover and may
produce isolated showers with an outside chance of a thunderstorm
or two. This could curtail the duration of elevated conditions in
the evening.
...Northeast Arizona and northwest New Mexico... Isolated dry
thunderstorms are likely to develop again over northeast
Arizona and northwest New Mexico this afternoon/evening.
Storms will likely stay relatively tied to terrain and will
be slow moving, which may increase the likelihood for wetting
rains. Additionally, precipitable water values of 0.75-1" and
surface dewpoints approaching 50 F may limit the coverage of dry
thunderstorms. However, wetting rains have been isolated during
previous days and fire ignitions due to lightning and strong outflow
winds remain possible.
..Nauslar.. 06/29/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2019
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will remain over most of the
CONUS with troughing in the Pacific Northwest and over the Northeast
on Sunday. This will limit wind/RH concerns as mid-level flow
relaxes over much of the western CONUS. A weak mid-level shortwave
trough is forecast to move from the Desert Southwest through the
Great Basin on Sunday.
...Desert Southwest into the Great Basin... Dry/breezy conditions
are likely Sunday afternoon in desert locations of southeast
California into western Arizona, but should remain below critical
thresholds, especially in areas with enough receptive fuels. Dry
thunderstorms may develop across portions of eastern Nevada into
Utah as a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves over the Great
Basin. However, enough uncertainty remains regarding thunderstorm
potential, especially over areas with receptive fuels, to not
include a dry thunderstorm area at this time.
...Elsewhere... Thunderstorms are likely to develop again
across portions of northern Arizona and northern New Mexico, but
higher precipitable water values and multiple consecutive days of afternoon/evening thunderstorms should reduce the risk/potential
of dry thunderstorms. Additionally, thunderstorms in the Cascades
into the northern Rockies are less of a concern given marginal fuel
conditions in these areas.
..Nauslar.. 06/29/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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