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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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MD 1697 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1697 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019
Areas affected...Parts of northern Kansas and adjacent southern
Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 110646Z - 110845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Barring substantive further strengthening of ongoing
thunderstorm activity, a watch may not be issued. But convection may
continue to pose a risk for at least occasional gusts approaching
or briefly exceeding severe limits, in addition to heavy rainfall,
along the Interstate 70 corridor of north central into northeast
Kansas, through 3-5 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A substantive surface cold pool appears to have
developed in association with the evolving convective system, with 8
mb 2-hour surface pressure rises observed at Hill City at 06Z (along
with 44 kt peak gusts). Convection is embedded with an environment characterized by large CAPE and weak to modest deep-layer shear
(largely due to veering of winds with height). Activity seems
likely to maintain intensity at least another couple of hours,
into the 08-10Z time frame, largely supported by forcing for ascent
associated with low-level warm advection and enhanced convergence,
on the nose of a 30-40 kt kt nocturnal low-level jet.
A continued gradual veering of this low-level jet from southerly to southwesterly during the next few hours is expected to support the
eastward development of ongoing activity near/north of the Interstate
70 corridor of north central into northeast Kansas. Relatively warm
mid-levels and modest to weak (up to 20 kt westerly deep-layer mean
ambient wind fields) are potentially limiting factors to severe
weather potential. However, it is possible that a sufficiently
strong surface cold pool and rear inflow may be maintained to
support a continuing risk for strong wind gusts approaching or
briefly exceeding severe wind gusts, until convection weakens as
low-level jet forcing diminishes toward daybreak.
..Kerr/Thompson.. 08/11/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39869888 40059785 39999660 39299588 38689660 38779891
39289891 39869888
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240
AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Areas of strong to severe storms are expected
over portions of the northern through central High Plains Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. Large hail and severe gusts are the
primary threats.
...High Plains...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level
short-wave trough over the Pacific northwest, shifting east in line
with short-range model guidance. This feature is forecast to shift
into western MT/ID by 12/00z which will result in roughly 30m 12hr
500mb height falls across the northern High Plains of MT/WY. In
response to the short wave, low-level flow should remain decidedly
easterly as a surface low develops over north-central WY. With
seasonally high-PW values expected to hold across this region,
instability should be more than adequate for robust updrafts. Latest
guidance suggests strongest boundary-layer heating will be noted
across ID/southern MT/western WY and forecast soundings depict
uncapped soundings by 19-20z over the higher terrain. Latest thinking
is discrete supercells should evolve over southwestern MT by early
afternoon. This activity should then spread/develop east toward
the High Plains where low-level moisture will be more conducive for
higher buoyancy and perhaps a tornado threat. Otherwise, damaging
winds and hail are expected with storms as they spread toward the
western Dakotas.
Farther south, low-latitude disturbance is gyrating north along the
AZ/NM border around the west side of an upper ridge. This feature
should translate into south-central CO late Sunday afternoon with a
corridor of stronger mid-level flow forecast to extend downstream
into the central High Plains. Large-scale forcing ahead of this
feature should encourage convective development across the higher
terrain early in the period. It appears robust thunderstorms will
evolve along the Front Range of CO into southeast WY by 20-21z then spread/develop east. This activity will propagate along cool side of
a pronounced surface boundary that should drape itself along the I-70
corridor across northeast CO/KS. Forecast soundings favor supercells,
and early activity should prove discrete. However, upward-evolving
complex of storms is expected and an organized squall line along
the leading edge of an MCS should advance east as LLJ focuses into south-central NE late. Damaging winds are possible if this activity
evolves as expected. Otherwise, hail and perhaps a tornado may be
noted with early supercells.
..Darrow/Cook.. 08/11/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION
OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible on Monday, mainly
from a portion of the Middle and upper Mississippi Valley to the
Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis...
Northern-stream upper trough will deamplify as it moves through
the northern Plains and upper MS Valley region Monday. The trough
will be accompanied by a cold front that should extend from central
ND southward through western NE by Monday evening. Farther south a low-amplitude, convectively enhanced shortwave trough will move from
the NE/IA area into the southern Great Lakes and OH Valley during the
evening into the overnight. At the start of the period, a cold front
will extend from a surface low in southeast NE into western KS. A quasi-stationary front will extend eastward from the low through
southern IA then southeast as a warm front toward the TN Valley.
...Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley regions...
Storms should be ongoing from eastern NE into IA in association with
the progressive, low-amplitude shortwave trough and will continue
east within zone of isentropic ascent north of the front and on nose
of an eastward-migrating low-level jet. Additional storms may be
ongoing farther southeast from northern MO into IL in vicinity of
the warm front. Current expectation is that much of this activity
will probably diminish as it spreads eastward toward the OH Valley.
These storms may reinforce the stationary/warm front or may result
in an effective boundary being farther south than the synoptic
fronts. The warm sector is expected to become moderately to strongly
unstable supported by surface dewpoints in the 70s F and diabatic
warming of the boundary layer. Eastward destabilization toward the
OH Valley will occur during the evening. Storms are expected to
redevelop in vicinity of the effective boundaries from the middle
MS Valley and toward the OH Valley. This region will reside within
belt of stronger winds aloft with 40-55 kt effective bulk shear
supportive of organized storms including supercells. Storms may
eventually evolve into an MCS as they develop eastward through the
OH Valley during the evening. All severe threats will be possible,
but primary threat will probably transition to damaging wind as
activity grows upscale. An upgrade to higher probabilities may
ultimately be needed for a portion of this region. However, ongoing uncertainties regarding mesoscale details related to evolution of
the morning convection precludes further refinement for this update. ...Northern Plains region...
The atmosphere may become at least marginally unstable east of a cold
front across the eastern Dakotas and into eastern NE where a belt of
stronger winds within base of the northern-stream shortwave trough
will reside. A few storms may redevelop in this region during the
afternoon, posing some risk for hail or locally strong wind gusts.
...Maine...
A few storms may develop along pre-frontal trough during the
afternoon where modest low-level moisture and mid-level lapse
rates will support marginal instability. This region will reside
within belt of stronger winds aloft within base of an amplifying
upper trough supporting 35-40 kt effective shear. A few storms may
produce locally strong wind gusts and small to marginally severe
hail, but overall threat should remain limited by the expected weak thermodynamic environment.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Dial.. 08/11/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions will gradually improve
compared to prior days. A longwave trough initially over Oregon
will continue to weaken and lift northeastward toward the northern
Rockies. As this occurs, a mid-level jet streak on the periphery of
the trough will migrate toward Idaho/Wyoming through peak heating
hours. Meanwhile, the widespread thunderstorms observed over Washington/Oregon/northern California and vicinity will diminish
significantly as the region comes under the influence of mid/upper
subsidence behind the trough.
...Eastern Idaho and western/central Wyoming... Vertical mixing
processes beneath the approaching mid-level jet streak will result
in areas of 15-25 mph surface winds during peak heating hours
- strongest over the Snake River Valley of Idaho and also into southwestern/central Wyoming. RH values will only fall to critical
thresholds on a localized basis and will be lowest in central Wyoming
(15-30% elsewhere). The atmospheric conditions are most consistent
with elevated fire weather thresholds, and the ongoing delineation
remains in place for this outlook given the existence of dry fuels
across the region.
..Cook.. 08/11/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... The northern Rockies mid-level trough responsible for heightened fire weather concerns the past few days will continue
to weaken and lift northeastward toward the Plains/southern
Canadian provinces. In the wake of this system, zonal mid-level
flow will extend across the northern tier of the CONUS along with
weaker mid-level flow compared to recent days. This pattern will
translate to weaker low-level flow across dry areas of the West.
Outside of locally elevated fire weather conditions across Wyoming
and vicinity, the overall pattern will be quiet and no highlights
are needed for this outlook.
..Cook.. 08/11/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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