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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242
AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Severe storms with large hail and damaging wind are
possible this afternoon into this evening from the northern Rockies
into the northern Plains.
...Northern Rockies into the northern Plains... Low-level
southeasterly flow is expected to develop across the northern High
Plains this afternoon, to the south of a cold front draped from
eastern MT into ND. Meanwhile, a gradual increase in southwesterly
midlevel flow is expected as an upper trough moves slowly eastward
across the interior Northwest. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop
sufficient low-level moisture will support moderate to locally
strong buoyancy this afternoon, with MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg
possible south of the front and to the east of a surface trough
across southeast MT, eastern WY, and the Dakotas. This instability,
combined with effective shear of 30-40 kt, will support the potential
for a few supercells as scattered thunderstorms develop by late
this afternoon. Large hail and localized downburst winds will be
the primary threat within the first couple of hours after storm
initiation. With time, some upscale growth is possible this evening, potentially spreading some severe wind risk into the central Dakotas
later tonight.
Further west, instability will be weaker across the higher terrain of
the northern Rockies, but still sufficient to support multiple rounds
of convection as the upper trough moves eastward. The strongest
storms in this region will be capable of localized severe winds
and perhaps some hail.
...Great Lakes into the OH Valley and PA... Low-level moisture is
expected to increase through the day today south of a quasistationary
frontal boundary from near the upper MS Valley region into the lower
Great Lakes and PA. Buoyancy will be limited somewhat by generally
poor midlevel lapse rates, but at least modest heating should allow
for steepening low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE values generally
in the 1500-2500 J/kg range by afternoon. Negligible convective
inhibition should allow for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to
develop in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Storm organization
should be limited by effective shear generally less than 25 kt,
though some localized enhancement to the shear will be possible near
any small-scale vorticity maxima traversing the region. Damaging
winds should be the primary threat.
...Central/eastern ME... A vorticity maximum and attendant strong northwesterly jet will move across northern New England later
today. Modest destabilization across central/eastern ME will allow
for scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon along
and east of a weak surface trough. Effective shear of 30-40 kt
will support some storm organization, with an attendant threat of
locally damaging wind and perhaps some hail.
...Eastern NE into IA... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon along a quasistationary frontal boundary
draped from eastern NE into IA. While effective shear will be weak
and storms should generally remain disorganized, moderate-to-strong
buoyancy and substantial PW values will support a threat of isolated
wet microbursts during the late afternoon into early evening.
..Dean/Nauslar.. 07/02/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235
AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms with wind damage and
hail will be possible on Wednesday across parts of the northern
Plains. A few damaging wind gusts will also be possible from the
Upper Midwest into the Ohio Valley.
...Northern Plains... West to southwest mid-level flow will be
in place across the northern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface,
a front is forecast to become quasi-stationary from southern and
eastern South Dakota into north-central Minnesota. Surface dewpoints
near the front in the upper 60s F may contribute to pockets
of moderate instability by afternoon. Thunderstorm development
appears most likely in the northern High Plains during the day
with convection spreading eastward across western and central South
Dakota during the late afternoon. Other storms may develop along the
front from eastern South Dakota into north-central Minnesota. Hail
and marginally severe wind gusts will be possible with storms that
interact with areas that destabilize sufficiently.
...Upper Midwest to Upper Ohio Valley... An upper-level ridge will
move across the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. At the surface,
a moist airmass should be in place from the mid Missouri Valley
eastward into the upper Ohio Valley. Surface dewpoints in the
lower to mid 70s F will likely contribute to moderate instability
across much of the region by afternoon. As storms initiate along
pre-existing outflow boundaries and near zones of enhanced low-level convergence, marginally severe wet downbursts will be possible.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Broyles.. 07/02/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2019
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level trough in the Pacific Northwest will
deepen as it slowly slides south/east today. A weak Pacific cold
front will move southeast into northern Nevada with a surface low
remaining near the Nevada/Utah border. The surface pressure gradient
will strengthen across the Great Basin into the Southwest as the
cold front approaches and via strong daytime heating in/around the
Lower Colorado River Valley.
...southern Nevada...southern Utah...northern Arizona... Elevated
conditions will develop across portions of southern Nevada, southern
Utah, and northern Arizona this afternoon/evening with sustained
southwest winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 5-20% expected. Locally
critical conditions are likely across this region as well. ERCs are
mostly near/above average for this time of year across the area with
a couple of stations above the 90th percentile. This is also around
the climatological peak fuel dryness for the region. Fine fuels will
likely be the main carrier of any fire, but some of the 100/1000-hour
fuels may be dry enough given the forecast conditions. Holdovers
are a concern given the recent lightning across the region.
..Nauslar.. 07/02/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing will remain over the Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday with heights continuing to slowly lower
across the western CONUS. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded
within this troughing is forecast to move over California and into
Nevada on Wednesday, which will help strengthen 700-500 mb flow
across the region. Surface troughing will extend northeast out of
the Lower Colorado River Valley into Utah.
...southern Nevada...southern Utah...northern Arizona... Elevated
conditions are likely to develop again on Wednesday across southern
Nevada, southern Utah, and northern Arizona. Southwest sustained
surface winds of 15-25 mph and RH values of 5-20% are expected during
Wednesday afternoon/evening with locally critical conditions also
possible if not likely. Winds will likely be stronger on Wednesday
than previous days given the presence of the relatively stronger
flow aloft. Elevated conditions may also expand farther south,
especially across southeast Arizona.
Elevated/critical winds will likely extend farther into Utah, but
fuels conditions preclude expanding the elevated into this area.
ERCs and dead fuel moisture values are mostly near to above/below
normal, respectively, across the region. Additionally, this is
around the climatological peak of fuel dryness for the region.
Holdovers also remain a concern given the recent lightning and
forecast winds/RH.
..Nauslar.. 07/02/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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One cannot make an omelette without breaking eggs -- but it is amazing how
many eggs one can break without making a decent omelette.
-- Professor Charles P. Issawi

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