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+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
WW 489 SEVERE TSTM NE WY 050555Z - 051200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 489 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM MDT Thu
Jul 4 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Northern
Nebraska Far Eastern Wyoming
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1155 PM
until 600 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated
very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered
damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Initially, an isolated supercell will continue to pose
a severe risk into the Nebraska Panhandle early in the overnight,
with other storms expected to develop across northern Nebraska
overnight. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary risks
across the region.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
35 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north
northwest of Torrington WY to 15 miles east of Oneill NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 487...WW 488...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion
vector 27025.
...Guyer
WW 488 SEVERE TSTM SD 050435Z - 050900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 488 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 PM CDT Thu
Jul 4 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1135 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph
likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving bow echo over western South Dakota will
track across the watch area overnight, posing a risk of damaging
wind gusts and hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest
of Pierre SD to 35 miles east of Chamberlain SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 487...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 27040.
...Hart
WW 487 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 050310Z - 051000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Thu
Jul 4 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado
Northwest Kansas Central Nebraska
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 1010 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread northeastward out of Colorado,
while new storms form over parts of Nebraska and Kansas. All of
this activity will pose a risk of damaging winds and hail through
much of the night.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and
75 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of
Imperial NE to 40 miles south southeast of Broken Bow NE. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483...WW 484...WW 485...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26030.
...Hart
WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377.
..MARSH..07/05/19
ATTN...WFO...CYS...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC013-015-017-031-045-071-089-103-123-149-157-161-165-183- 050740-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOX BUTTE BOYD BROWN CHERRY
DAWES GARFIELD HOLT KEYA PAHA
MORRILL ROCK SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX
WHEELER
WYC015-050740-
WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GOSHEN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION
ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
WW 0488 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 488
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW VTN TO
45 S PIR TO 5 NNW PIR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377.
..MARSH..07/05/19
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 488
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-015-017-023-043-053-059-069-073-085-121-123-050740-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AURORA BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES
MIX DOUGLAS GREGORY HAND HYDE
JERAULD LYMAN TODD TRIPP
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 487
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW HLC TO
30 WSW MCK TO 35 SE AKO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1377.
..MARSH..07/05/19
ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...GID...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 487
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC075-095-115-121-125-050740-
CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LOGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON
YUMA
KSC137-147-183-050740-
KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NORTON PHILLIPS SMITH NEC005-009-019-029-041-047-049-057-061-063-065-069-073-075-083- 085-087-091-099-101-111-113-115-117-135-137-145-163-171-175- 050740-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WW 0486 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE MHN TO
30 SW ANW TO 10 N ANW.
WW 486 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 050300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION
..WENDT..07/05/19
ATTN...WFO...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 486
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC009-017-171-050300-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BROWN THOMAS
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0484 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 484
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW CYS TO
45 NNE LAR TO 25 SSE CPR.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375
..WENDT..07/05/19
ATTN...WFO...CYS...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 484
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC007-013-045-157-165-050340-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BANNER BOX BUTTE DAWES SCOTTS BLUFF
SIOUX
WYC009-015-021-027-031-050340-
WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CONVERSE GOSHEN LARAMIE NIOBRARA
PLATTE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW CDR TO
5 W RAP TO 60 SSE Y22.
..BUNTING..07/05/19
ATTN...WFO...UNR...RIW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-055-071-102-103-050440-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT HAAKON JACKSON OGLALA LAKOTA
PENNINGTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1377 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 487...488...489... FOR
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1377 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2019
Areas affected...South Dakota and Nebraska
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487...488...489...
Valid 050643Z - 050845Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 487, 488,
489 continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms -- some severe -- continue this morning
across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska. Large hail and gusty
winds are possible with the Nebraska storms, with strong, damaging
winds likely with the storms across South Dakota. The severe threat
will continue through the morning hours.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue this morning across portions of
South Dakota and Nebraska within two separate regimes. Storms across
South Dakota are moving east-southeast while producing measure
winds in excess of 70 mph. The southern storms, across Nebraska,
have been producing very large hail and gusty winds.
The overall large-scale environment will remain very conducive for
severe thunderstorms this morning with most-unstable CAPE ranging
from 1000 J/kg across central South Dakota to greater than 3500
J/kg across southern Nebraska. Additionally, effective-bulk shear
remains between 40-50 knots across both regimes.
Despite the storms across South Dakota and northern Nebraska should
continue into the morning, increasing surface-based inhibition and
cooling boundary-layer temperatures should decrease the potential
for widespread significant wind, although the potential will remain non-negligible for several more hours.
To the south, storms across southern Nebraska appear to be associated
with remnant outflow boundary from earlier 04 July convection. These thunderstorms are tapping into an abundant CAPE reservoir to the
south of the outflow boundary and, although likely slightly elevated
in nature, will continue to pose a risk for very large hail and
gusty winds.
..Marsh.. 07/05/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU... CYS...
LAT...LON 39540370 39980371 39980347 40490345 40500351 40980355
41000261 41420263 41420332 41670336 41690401 41540404 41580465
42590467 42610403 42970403 43010124 43780124 43830106 44160102
44150115 44740113 44760062 44580062 44599972 44879966 44859871
44249869 44209831 43529833 43499815 42889811 42879834 41749826
41729873 39999874 39999851 39579849 39540370
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253
AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are expected across the
central Plains Friday.
...Central Plains/MS Valley...
Weak mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to eject across
WY into the western Dakotas by 06/00z. Ahead of this feature,
multiple clusters of convection are forecast to spread across the northern/central Plains by sunrise Friday morning. This early-morning convection should aid southward push to a surface front that should
settle into southeast NE-northern KS-CO by mid afternoon. Latest
thinking is this boundary will be the primary low-level focus
for strong/severe thunderstorm development by late afternoon,
in addition to upslope regions in the lee of the Rockies.
Early in the period, an MCS will likely be ongoing across SD/NE.
While isolated severe wind gusts or perhaps some hail could be
noted with this early activity, it appears the MCS should be
mostly sub-severe at daybreak. There is some concern that renewed
development along the leading edge of the remnant MCS could lead to
a few severe storms downstream over southern MN/northern IA. Several
CAMs support this scenario and SLGT Risk may need to be added to
this region if confidence in afternoon intensification increases.
Farther south along a front over the central Plains, strong
boundary-layer heating is expected across KS into southeast CO.
Forecast soundings across this region suggest surface temperatures
will soar into the mid 90s which will result in convective
temperatures being breached by 21-22z. There is some concern that
convection developing along this boundary will not be particularly
sheared, however large CAPE and high-PW air mass suggest robust
updrafts are possible. Scattered strong storms should evolve along
the front arcing across the central Plains. Severe wind gusts and
large hail are possible. Farther northwest, upslope flow into the
lee of the CO/WY terrain should aid isolated supercell development.
Activity that develops along the I-25 corridor into northeast
WY will be adequately sheared for deep rotation which should
produce primarily hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Convection
that evolves along the KS boundary could grow upscale into an MCS
during the overnight hours with slow southeast movement expected
toward southwest MO by daybreak Saturday.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 07/05/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157
PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2019
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the northern Rockies
into adjacent northern High Plains, as well as much of the Northeast,
Saturday into Saturday evening, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts.
...Synopsis... A mid-level high, becoming centered near the Texas
Gulf coast by 12Z Saturday, may remain a prominent influence across
much of the south central and southeastern U.S. through this period.
Across much of this region, east of the southern Rockies, lower/mid tropospheric wind fields will be generally light, with the broadly
anticyclonic westerlies to the north only seasonably weak to
modest in strength across the northern Rockies and Plains, east
southeastward into the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic region.
One of the more prominent short wave troughs within the westerlies
is forecast to pivot across Quebec into the Canadian Maritimes
and Newfoundland and Labrador. This may contribute to modest
strengthening of west-northwesterly mid-level flow (30-40+ kt at 500
mb) across the lower Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Valley through
much of New England Saturday into Saturday night. An associated
cold front may overspread much of this region, the upper Ohio Valley
and Mid Atlantic by 12Z Sunday.
Upstream, a fairly significant mid-level low is forecast to gradually
dig inland across the Pacific Northwest coast. As it does, there
may be some south-southeastward amplification of mid-level troughing
along an axis near/just west of the Sierra Nevada. One or two
perturbations may emerge from this troughing, and progress through
the larger-scale downstream ridging across the northern Rockies.
...Northern Rockies into adjacent High Plains... Models indicate
the presence of a sufficiently moist boundary layer to support
weak to moderate CAPE with daytime heating Saturday. Coupled with
steepening low through mid-level lapse rates, the environment is
expected to become conducive to the initiation of at least widely
scattered strong storms capable of producing severe hail and locally
strong surface gusts across the higher terrain. With substantial
veering of low through mid-level winds with height, vertical shear
may become sufficient for isolated supercells, as storms gradually
propagate off the higher terrain into the northern High Plains.
Whether activity will become concentrated enough, and perhaps able to
grow upscale into an organizing convective system, remains unclear.
A substantial signal does exist in the 05/00Z NAM, for example, that
forcing for ascent and destabilization may become maximized east of
the Laramie and Big Horn Mountains into the Black Hills vicinity
late Saturday afternoon and evening. However, there has been and
remains considerable spread concerning this potential development,
and uncertainty remains too large to allow for more than 5 percent
severe probabilities at this time.
...Northeast... Although lapse rates may not become particularly
steep, seasonably high boundary layer moisture (surface dew points
in the upper 60s to lower 70s) may allow for at least modest
destabilization (CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) ahead of the cold front,
from parts of the upper Ohio Valley and lee of the lower Great Lakes
into New England. Models suggest that mid-level forcing for ascent
on the southern through southeast periphery of the Quebec short wave
trough may become sufficient to support considerable thunderstorm
development as this destabilization occurs. There appears potential
for slowly strengthening surface cold pools to gradually consolidate
and perhaps eventually become accompanied by a risk for potentially
damaging surface gusts, while spreading southeastward and southward
through late Saturday afternoon and evening.
This threat may extend as far south as northern Virginia/central
Maryland, where instability within surface troughing to the lee of
the Appalachians may be greater, but wind fields generally weaker.
More uncertainty concerning severe weather potential exists farther
to the south, beneath the mid-level ridging, near/east of the
southern Appalachians and adjacent piedmont.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Kerr.. 07/05/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2019
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will exist across CONUS east of
the Divide with upper-level troughing over the Pacific Northwest
today. Weak surface troughing within the Intermountain West will
also be in place. While hot and dry conditions will be likely across
parts of the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Southwest, surface
flow will generally fall below elevated/critical thresholds outside
of perhaps a few localized areas. A few lightning strikes will be
possible in eastern Oregon and northeast Nevada.
..Wendt.. 07/05/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2019
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal flow will continue across the eastern
two-thirds of the CONUS on D2/Saturday. The Pacific Northwest trough
will dig slightly southward, increasing the mid-level height gradient
and mid-level winds across portions of the Columbia Basin and Great
Basin. Elevated conditions may occur in the Columbia Gorge as well
as southeastern Oregon as afternoon RH falls to 15-20%, but the
duration of 15-20 mph winds will likely be too short to warrant any
highlights. Farther south into Nevada, slightly stronger mid-level
winds than the previous day will likely lead to locally elevated
conditions. Lack of better mid-level winds as well as upper-level
cloud cover reduces confidence in widespread elevated conditions
occurring, however.
..Wendt.. 07/05/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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