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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258
AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into
Wednesday night across portions of the upper Great Lakes and
southern Plains.
...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the
central Plains will continue eastward through the Upper Midwest
and Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday. Surface low attendant to this
upper system will move eastward across western Ontario. A second,
weaker low may develop over the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday evening
as height falls promote secondary cyclogenesis. An associated cold
front will sweep southeastward/southward across the central/southern
Plains, Upper Midwest and middle MS Valley. By 00Z Thursday, this
cold front is expected to extend from eastern Upper MI southeastward
through central IL, central MO, northern OK and into the northern
TX Panhandle.
Upper ridging will remain in place across the southern third of the
CONUS with the western portion of this ridge (centered near the Four
Corners) expected to build throughout the period. A shortwave trough
will move through the northwestern periphery of this ridge across
the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Additionally, area of
low pressure currently over the central FL Panhandle is expected
to continue drifting southward, moving into the western Gulf of
Mexico early Wednesday. Some organization/strengthening of this low
is expected as it moves gradually westward across the northern Gulf.
...Upper Great Lakes to Mid-MS Valley... Thunderstorms will
likely develop along the cold front as it pushes through the region
Wednesday afternoon. The strongest forcing for ascent is anticipated
across the Upper Great Lakes, where frontal convergence and height
falls will be maximized. Strongest flow aloft and vertical shear
will also exist across this area. The resulting combination of
forcing for ascent, favorable vertical shear, and ample low-level
moisture will support organized thunderstorm development. Primary
threat will be strong wind gusts with some hail also possible. A
tornado or two is possible, particularly if areas of enhanced
southerly surface wind develop.
Farther south, less convergence along the front, displacement south
of the strong large-scale forcing for ascent, and warmer temperatures
aloft, will temper thunderstorm coverage. Even so, ample low-level
moisture will foster strong buoyancy and any storms that do develop
could pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and hail.
...Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau... Strong cold pool
generated by early morning storms across the central Plains is
expected to surge quickly southward/southeastward, augmenting the
cold front, with this composite boundary reaching the northern TX
Panhandle, northern OK, and southeast MO by the afternoon. Very
moist and unstable air mass will be in place ahead of this outflow
and guidance is in good agreement that convective initiation occurs
along much of this boundary around 18Z. Vertical shear is weak,
but steep low-level lapse rates and relatively high LCLs amidst a
very moist environment support the potential for strong downbursts.
...Central Gulf Coast... Very moist profiles (with PW values
over 2.25") will limit instability, with predominantly warm-rain
processes anticipated. Even so, a few stronger updrafts may result
in enough water-loading to product damaging wind gusts. Additionally,
as this area of low pressure organizes and deepens, low- to mid-level
flow is expected to gradually strengthen. The amount of deepening
and resulting low- to mid-level wind speeds is uncertain, but the
potential exists for enough vertical shear to develop to support
an isolated tornado threat.
..Mosier/Wendt.. 07/10/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148
PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU/UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND ADIRONDACKS REGION...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing a risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts are expected to develop across parts of the
upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region Thursday afternoon,
then gradually spread across and east of the Appalachians through
Thursday evening.
...Synopsis... A broad area of mid-level subtropical ridging,
centered over the southern Rockies, appears likely to remain
prominent across much of the western and central U.S. through
this period. While broad troughing lingers within the mid-latitude
westerlies across the northeastern Pacific, this flow will transition
to broadly anticyclonic inland of the Pacific Northwest coast
through the Canadian/U.S. border area and Upper Midwest. A short
wave impulse emanating from the troughing, may accelerate eastward
within this regime. However, it still appears most probable that
associated forcing for large-scale ascent will remain north of the international border through 12Z Friday.
Downstream, an initially more significant short wave trough is
expected to progress east and southeast of the Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley region Thursday through Thursday night. As it does, models
continue to indicate that there may be some weakening, with the
strongest embedded smaller-scale impulse, initially northeast of
Lake Huron/Georgian Bay, migrating into and through southern Quebec.
But, a fairly well defined cold front is still forecast to advance
east of the lower Great Lakes, and across/south of the Ohio River
by the end of the period.
...Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley into Mid Atlantic... The
pre-frontal environment likely will be characterized by seasonably
high moisture content (including surface dew points in the upper
60s to lower 70s F), with a corridor of stronger surface heating
contributing to at least moderate mixed-layer CAPE on the order of
1000-2000+ J/kg across the Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau region
through much of the Allegheny Plateau and Adirondacks by Thursday
afternoon. Given this destabilization, forcing for ascent ahead
of the upper troughing probably will be sufficient to support the
initiation of considerable thunderstorm development.
As activity gradually grows upscale through the afternoon,
consolidation and strengthening of surface cold pools is expected to
lead to an increasing risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. It
appears that this risk, and convective organization, will be enhanced
by modest deep layer shear beneath 30+ kt southwesterly/westerly
flow in the 700-500 mb layer. Clusters of storms developing across
the upper Ohio Valley may spread across and east of the Allegheny
Mountains with a continuing risk for damaging wind gusts before
diminishing late Thursday evening.
...Central and eastern Gulf Coast... There remains at least a modest
signal in latest model output that intensifying southerly low-level
wind fields, on the eastern flank of a strengthening tropical
cyclone, may impact the region by late Thursday/Thursday night.
There may be coinciding enhancement of low-level convergence, and
enlarging low-level hodographs, near immediate coastal areas to
support convection capable of producing either relatively brief/weak
tornadoes, or locally strong surface gusts.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Kerr.. 07/10/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will continue to build in the
Four Corners region today. Widespread weak winds across the Great
Basin and Desert Southwest will keep fire weather concerns to a
minimum. Locally elevated conditions may occur in southern/central
Nevada as a thermal surface low enhances southerly flow during
the afternoon. A few isolated thunderstorms are also possible
along/north of the Mogollon Rim from east-central Arizona into
north-central Arizona. Slow storm motions and recent rainfall,
particularly in eastern portions of the Rim, will limit overall
spatial extent of lightning ignition risk. Furthermore, 100/1000-hour
fuel moisture remains near normal according to latest SWCC guidance.
..Wendt.. 07/10/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will continue to be centered
over the Four Corners region on D2/Thursday. Monsoonal moisture will
lift northward into Arizona and Utah. At least isolated coverage of thunderstorms is expected across much of the Mogollon Rim into the
central mountains of Utah with the aid of subtle mid-level shortwave
troughs. A dry sub-cloud layer is expected to develop prior to
convection in the afternoon with RH falling as low as 10-15%. A more
mixed wet/dry mode is expected across the Mogollon Rim where PWAT
will be greater as well as storm motions being slower. A higher
concentration of drier storms will occur in central Utah on the
edge of the mid-level moisture where storm motions are forecast
to be faster. Continued drying of fuels at higher elevations,
particularly heavier fuels, will support at least a marginal risk
of lightning ignitions in the highlighted area.
..Wendt.. 07/10/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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