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WW 451 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 270500Z - 271200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 451 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Thu
Jun 27 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern North Dakota
South Dakota
* Effective this Thursday morning from Midnight until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter
possible A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A well-organized line of storms is expected to continue
generally eastward overnight across northern/central South Dakota
and far southern North Dakota. Damaging winds and severe hail
are possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles northwest
of Rapid City SD to 30 miles south of Aberdeen SD. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 450...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
26035.
...Guyer
WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0451 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
WW 0450 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW VTN TO
30 SSW PHP TO 25 SE RAP TO 45 SE GCC.
A NEW WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
..KERR..06/27/19
ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...LBF...CYS...UNR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 450
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC007-019-033-055-063-071-081-093-103-270500-
SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT BUTTE CUSTER HAAKON
HARDING JACKSON LAWRENCE MEADE
PENNINGTON
WYC011-045-270500-
WY . WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CROOK WESTON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0449 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE 4BQ TO
20 S GDV. THE WATCH MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED FOR 1 HOUR FOR CARTER
COUNTY AND VICINITY. OTHERWISE, THE WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 04Z.
..COOK..06/27/19
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...GGW...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 449
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MTC011-025-270440-
MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CARTER FALLON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
WW 0448 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 448
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE OMK TO
50 ENE EPH TO 35 NW ALW TO 40 WNW PDT TO 35 SE YKM.
WW 448 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 270300Z.
..COOK..06/27/19
ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...MFR...PQR...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 448
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WAC001-005-021-025-043-270300-
WA . WASHINGTON COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BENTON FRANKLIN GRANT
LINCOLN
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234
AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MONTANA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of very large hail,
intense wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible
across portions of west-central into northeastern Montana Thursday
afternoon and night. Other severe storms with damaging wind will be
possible from southern Minnesota into a portion of the Great Lakes. ...Synopsis...
The synoptic upper pattern will remain characterized by a cutoff
upper low over the northwest states and a low amplitude ridge over
the northern Plains. The upper low will drift only very slowly
east during the period. A well-defined MCV associated with storms
ongoing over the central Plains early this morning will continue
through the upper ridge and into the Great Lakes region. At the
surface a quasi-stationary front will reside from the southern
Great Lakes westward into the northern High Plains. A cold front
will move slowly east through the northern Rockies, reaching eastern
MT toward the end of this period.
...Montana through western ND...
Easterly near-surface winds will persist over the northern Plains
north of the stationary front resulting in westward advection of
boundary layer moisture with dewpoints in the 50s F expected across
central MT and near 60 F in the eastern part of the state. With
steep lapse rates already in place, MLCAPE should climb to around
1500 J/kg as the surface layer warms during the day. Another
in a series of vorticity maxima will rotate through the upper
low circulation and into the northern Rockies during the time
of peak destabilization, and storms should redevelop over the
higher terrain and spread northeast into central and northeast
MT. A mid-upper jet along the southeastern periphery of the upper
low will contribute to 40-50 kt effective bulk shear supportive of
supercell storms as the initial mode. Very large hail and damaging
wind will be the main threats. Veering low-level wind profiles with
height will contribute to sufficient 0-2 km storm relative helicity
for low-level mesocyclones, and a few tornadoes will be possible
especially toward early evening north of the front across central
and northern MT where LCLs should be lower. Storms may eventually
congeal into an MCS and spread east, reaching western ND overnight
with a continued threat for damaging wind.
...Southern Minnesota into the Great Lakes...
An organized MCS ongoing over western SD will reach southern MN
between 12-15Z today and might pose an ongoing threat for damaging
wind. A well-defined MCV is associated with this MCS. The boundary
layer will become moderately to strongly unstable downstream along
and south of a warm front from southern MN into southern WI. Storms
may redevelop or ongoing storms may intensify as the atmosphere
destabilizes. Activity may reorganize as a forward propagating MCS
and continue east through the southern Great Lakes, generally in
vicinity of the warm front. Damaging wind will be the main threat.
Given potential for an organized wind event, an upgrade to enhanced
might be required for a portion of this region once uncertainties
regarding details of the convective and mesoscale evolution have
been mitigated.
..Dial/Cook.. 06/27/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256
AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MT INTO NORTHWEST ND...
...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms are expected across
parts of central to northeast Montana into western North Dakota on
Friday. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with
these storms.
...Montana into the Dakotas...
A lobe of the Pacific Northwest upper low will eject northeast into
Alberta on Friday, leaving a somewhat weaker/broader trough across
the Pacific Coast. Strong southwesterly 500 mb winds of 50-70 kt will
continue to stream across much of Montana, while easterly low-level
flow maintains mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints as far west as central
MT. Convection is likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the
period and could initially be strong to severe in the vicinity
of northeast MT/northwest ND, but is expected to decay rather
quickly during the morning. Strong heating and a continued stream
of moisture into the area beneath the upper ridge centered over the
Dakotas should result in airmass recovery from morning convection,
and 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast by most guidance by afternoon.
While the shear and instability parameter space will be favorable
for severe storms capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts,
some uncertainty regarding coverage exists as the upper level ridge
builds over the northern Plains and some warming occurs over eastern
MT. With the upper low ejecting northeast, upper forcing for ascent
and continued moist advection across the region should be sufficient
for storms to develop during the afternoon over higher terrain
of southwest/central MT. A low-level jet will modestly increase
during the evening as a weak surface low strengthens across WY,
and a Pacific cold front shifts eastward across MT overnight. This
should support upscale growth into one or more bands of eastward
progressing convection, posing a threat for damaging wind and hail.
The greatest threat during the afternoon and evening will likely
remain across central into northeast MT where capping will not be
as strong as further east.
...Mid-MO Valley to Great Lakes Vicinity...
Severe threat further east remains quite uncertain and will mainly
be driven by mesoscale features dependent in part on ongoing
convection at the beginning of the period. Guidance continues
to vary in where morning convective systems may be ongoing, but
somewhere from IA into WI/MI appears likely as a shortwave impulse
is expected to be located over the upper Great Lakes during the
morning. A belt of 30-40 kt midlevel west/northwesterly flow will
spread across the upper Great Lakes toward NY/PA by the end of the
period. Mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints will be maintained on south/southwesterly boundary-layer winds and strong heating ahead
of a southward sagging cold front/composite outflow will result in
strong instability and weak capping. Storms are likely to develop
in the vicinity of the surface boundary and near any remnant MCVs
and outflow boundaries from previous convection. Effective shear
appears somewhat marginal, in the 25-35 kt range, likely limiting
discrete cells to some degree. Storm clusters will still be able to
take advantage of large CAPE and steep lapse rates, in addition to
high PWs to produce large hail and damaging gusts. Given uncertainty
in where exactly the greatest severe threat may develop, Marginal
severe probs will be maintained for now.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Leitman.. 06/27/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...Synopsis... Persistent long-wave troughing along the western tier
of the CONUS and ridging across the central and southern Plains will
continue to promote enhanced mid-level flow aloft from California
through Montana this afternoon. Some of this flow will occur over
a continued low-level airmass over the Great Basin, with vertical
mixing processes promoting elevated to locally critical fire weather
conditions during peak heating hours. A few thunderstorms are also
expected in Oregon and New Mexico.
...Western Nevada eastward through the Four Corners Region...
Vertical mixing processes beneath stronger flow aloft and the
presence of a surface trough across the region will result in
several corridors of 20+ mph surface winds during peak heating
hours. RH values will also fall well below critical thresholds
and possibly reach single digits in northern Arizona and vicinity.
These atmospheric conditions are consistent with critical fire
weather, though fuels/ERCs suggest that large-fire potential will not
be very high except for on a localized basis. Thus, the elevated
fire weather delineation remains in place and accounts for locally
critical conditions where fuels are dry.
...Oregon... The proximity of the mid-level trough, mid-level jet
axis, and surface heating beneath relatively cool temperatures aloft
will continue to support thunderstorm potential especially during the
overnight hours - though isolated activity may also occur during the
morning and overnight. Shear/kinematic profiles support appreciable
storm motions (around 25 knots), although wetting thunderstorm cores
may also be realized. Isolated dry lightning strikes are possible
on the periphery of the thunderstorm cores along with gusty and
erratic winds.
...New Mexico... During the afternoon, surface heating and deeply
mixed boundary-layer profiles beneath weak mid-level buoyancy
will foster thunderstorm development during the afternoon and
early evening. Slow storm motions will support some wetting precip
potential with storms, although dry sub-cloud conditions will support evaporation and the potential for gusty winds near convection.
Isolated dry lightning strikes are possible with this activity.
..Cook.. 06/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CDT Thu Jun 27 2019
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...Synopsis... Although the Pacific Northwest mid-level low
is expected to slowly weaken on D2/Fri, a similar fire-weather
scenario will be in place across the West as enhanced mid-level flow overspreads portions of the western Great Basin. A surface trough
will also remain in place from western Utah southward through the
Lower Colorado River Valley. A few thunderstorms are also expected
across the southern Rockies.
...Southern Nevada eastward through the Four Corners Region...
Widespread areas of 20-25 mph southwesterly surface flow are expected
to develop once again across the region in response to surface
troughing and vertical mixing processes. RH values will also fall
below critical thresholds - perhaps as low as 5% in southern Nevada
and vicinity. Again, fuels/ERCs will likely be sub-critical except
for on a localized basis, with windiest conditions displaced from
the driest fuels. As a result, an elevated delineation remains
in place to account for locally critical fire weather conditions
where fuels support large-fire potential.
...New Mexico and east-central Arizona... High-based convection will
also likely develop across the region during peak-heating hours as
weak mid-level buoyancy develops atop a well-mixed boundary layer.
Though storms will be slow-moving, the dry boundary layer will
promote evaporation of precipitation beneath thunderstorm cores,
possibly supporting isolated dry lightning strikes and gusty,
erratic surface winds near downdrafts. Most convection should
weaken overnight with the loss of surface heating and stabilization.
..Cook.. 06/27/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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Over the years, I've developed my sense of deja vu so acutely that now I
can remember things that *have* happened before ...

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