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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
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+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+
WW 506 SEVERE TSTM NE 130100Z - 130700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Number 506 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 700 PM MDT Fri
Jul 12 2019
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Nebraska
* Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 700 PM
until 100 AM MDT.
* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70
mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter
possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread eastward across the watch area
this evening into an extremely unstable air mass. Storm mergers
may result in a few severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts
and hail.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles west of Mullen
NE to 25 miles east southeast of Imperial NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.


AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60
knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion
vector 25025.
...Hart
WW 0506 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 506
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE MCK TO
15 ESE LBF TO 20 NNE LBF TO 15 WNW MHN.
..GLEASON..07/13/19
ATTN...WFO...LBF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 506
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-017-041-063-071-089-091-111-113-115-117-149-171-183- 130540-
NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAINE BROWN CUSTER FRONTIER
GARFIELD HOLT HOOKER LINCOLN
LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON ROCK THOMAS
WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER
TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
MD 1452 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST
LA...FAR SOUTHERN MS...MOBILE BAY
Mesoscale Discussion 1452 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019
Areas affected...southeast LA...far southern MS...Mobile Bay Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 130653Z - 130800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A storm or two may acquire transient rotation/weak
supercell characteristics overnight. A brief/weak tornado cannot
be ruled out. The forecast coverage/magnitude of the tornado risk
will probably preclude a tornado watch issuance unless observational
trends change.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KLIX shows a storm with weak
supercell structure southeast of New Orleans moving north within an
outer convective band from Tropical Storm Barry. The 06z Slidell,
LA raob depicted weak buoyancy (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE) with a very
moist profile and poor lapse rates. However, inputting the observed
storm motion of storms near the central Gulf Coast is yielding
between 200-300 m2/s2 0-1km SRH. Given the quasi-discrete storm
mode in the aforementioned environment in the northeast quadrant
of Tropical Storm Barry, it is possible weak low-level mesocyclones
could episodically develop over the next several hours. A brief/weak
tornado is the main threat.
..Smith/Guyer.. 07/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 29298974 30579056 30988933 30508702 30028702 29868834
28788873 29298974
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257
AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected during
the late afternoon and evening across the northern Rockies/Plains
region with damaging wind and large hail the main threats. An
isolated tornado threat will exist in association with tropical
cyclone Barry along the central Gulf coastal region.
...Northern Rockies through northern Plains region...
Western extension of a front will remain stalled across IA into NE
today where richer low-level moisture with dewpoints in the upper
60s to around 70 F will reside. Farther north and west moisture
will be more limited across MT with dewpoints generally in the 50s,
with 60s farther east toward the ND border. An elevated mixed layer
will remain situated across this region resulting in MLCAPE ranging
from 1500 J/kg across MT to 3000 J/kg over the central and northern
Plains. A broad upper trough will reside over much of the northern
Plains, but with embedded weak vorticity maxima. Diabatic heating
over the higher terrain and forcing accompanying the weak vorticity
maxima will promote thunderstorm initiation over the mountains,
and this activity will subsequently spread east into the moderately
unstable environment across the High Plains. A belt of modest winds
aloft along the northern periphery of the upper ridge will support
30-40 kt effective bulk shear. Both multicell and a few supercell
structures are likely with storms eventually evolving into line
segments and clusters, eventually reaching the western Dakotas during
the evening. Damaging wind and large hail will be the main threats.
...Central Gulf coast region...
Tropical storm Barry is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to
move in a general north northwesterly direction while strengthening
to hurricane strength just prior to landfall later today. Low-level
wind shear continues to strengthen, and some of the convection
developing within the outer bands may become capable of producing
a few tornadoes, especially if sufficient destabilization of the
boundary layer occurs.
...Lower Great Lakes into western New York region...
Shortwave trough will move southeast through the lower Great Lakes
accompanied by a cold front. Weak instability will develop ahead
of this boundary within a moderately sheared environment (35-40 kt
effective bulk shear). A few strong storms with gusty winds will
be possible through early evening, but overall threat should remain
limited by the expected marginal thermodynamic environment.
..Dial/Squitieri.. 07/13/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233
AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MT AND THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be noted in the lower
Mississippi Valley region in association with remnants of
Barry. Isolated severe storms are also expected across Montana and
the upper Red River Valley. A few strong storms may also develop
in association with Barry.
...Barry...
Tropical Storm Barry is forecast to advance slowly north across LA
into southern AR by the end of the day2 period. While boundary-layer heating/buoyancy will be limited, latest model guidance suggests
a notable LLJ will extend across LA into southern AR just east of
low center. This will aid low-level shear for possible weak tornado
development with small supercell structures. For latest information
...MT/Upper Red River Valley...
Late-evening model guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will
emerge over MT late in the day1 period before ejecting into ND early
Sunday. This feature will aid a cluster of convection that should
advance east across the northern Plains early, possibly progressing
into eastern ND/northwestern MN by peak heating. It's not entirely
clear whether the early-day convection will maintain its intensity
or strengthen late afternoon as boundary layer heats downstream
over the upper Red River Valley. Either scenario would likely pose
some risk for isolated severe wind gusts, or perhaps some hail. This
activity will propagate into the upper Great Lakes region during the
overnight hours as veered LLJ focuses into northern WI after sunset.
Upstream across the northern Rockies, 500mb speed max is forecast to
translate across eastern OR/northern ID into western MT during the
early afternoon. This feature should suppress the height field across
the northern Rockies aiding eastward progression of a surface front
into MT during the latter half of the period. Strong boundary-layer
heating is expected across MT which should result in convective
temperatures being breached by 22-23z time frame. While deep-layer
shear would seem to favor supercells, large-scale forcing may
contribute to thunderstorm clusters that will propagate toward the
ND border late. Wind/hail are the primary threats with this activity. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Darrow.. 07/13/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132
AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of
the northern Rockies/Plains region. A few strong storms may also
develop across the upper Great Lakes and in association with the
remnants of Barry.
...Northern Rockies/Plains...
Notable mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to progress across
the northern Rockies Monday as a 50kt 500mb speed max translates
into central MT by 16/00z. Large-scale forcing for ascent should
spread across ID into MT during the day which will aid convective
development along/immediately post frontal over southwestern MT by
mid afternoon. Latest guidance suggests southwest-northeast oriented
boundary will extend from southwestern MT into northwestern ND by
late afternoon. Strong heating along this wind shift should provide
the focus for aforementioned convection to spread downstream. Shear
profiles will be more than adequate for sustained rotating updrafts
and initial activity may be supercellular in nature. Thereafter,
several thunderstorm clusters could emerge during the evening across
the Plains.
...Upper Great Lakes...
Late day2 short-wave trough is expected to advance across the upper
MS Valley into WI by the start of the period. Convection will likely
be ongoing at 15/12z along the nose of veered LLJ. Marginally severe
hail and locally damaging winds may accompany this activity as it
spreads east ahead of the mid-level disturbance. It's not clear how
much, if any, convection will develop in the wake of the short wave. ...Remnants of Barry...
Strong low-level shear will gradually advance north across LA through
AR into southern MO just east of remnant low center. Will maintain
5% severe probs along eastern hemisphere of Barry to account for
brief weak tornadoes and gusty winds with more sustained convection.
..Darrow.. 07/13/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will gradually translate
eastward across the western CONUS, with an upper-level trough
traversing the Pacific Northwest through the period. Stronger
mid-level flow associated with the aforementioned upper-level trough
will overspread portions of the northwestern Great Basin/Pacific
Northwest, atop a deep, well-mixed boundary layer. Here downward
momentum transport may foster 15-25 mph sustained westerly
surface winds amidst critically low RH and fuels at least
marginally receptive to fire spread, where an elevated area was
delineated. East-northeast of the elevated area, mid-level monsoonal
moisture will meander across portions of the northern Rockies, down
into the Great Basin into parts of the Four Corners area, also atop a
well heated/mixed boundary layer. While most storms east-southeast
of the stronger flow aloft across the Pacific Northwest will likely
have slow motions, 0.50-75 precipitable water values and a sfc-500
mb sub-cloud layer may compensate to support enough strikes to
warrant an elevated dry thunderstorm delineation across portions
of the northern Great Basin into eastern Oregon, where fuels are
receptive enough to support wildfire-spread potential.
..Squitieri.. 07/13/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Everyone knows that dragons don't exist. But while this simplistic
formulation may satisfy the layman, it does not suffice for the scientific mind. The School of Higher Neantical Nillity is in fact wholly unconcerned with what ____does exist. Indeed, the banality of existence has
been so amply demonstrated, there is no need for us to discuss it any
further here. The brilliant Cerebron, attacking the problem analytically, discovered three distinct kinds of dragon: the mythical, the chimerical,
and the purely hypothetical. They were all, one might say, nonexistent,
but each nonexisted in an entirely different way ...
-- Stanislaw Lem, "Cyberiad"

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