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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
SLACKWARE LINUX - HELLOCODELINUX@GMAIL.COM

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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100
AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
damaging wind will be possible from Montana into the Northern Plains
and Upper Midwest later today and tonight. A couple tornadoes will
be possible in association with Tropical Cyclone Barry across the
lower Mississippi Valley region.
...Northern Great Plains into the Upper Midwest... Elevated
convection may be ongoing at the start of the period across portions
of ND, and perhaps northwest MN. This initial activity will pose a
threat of large hail and locally damaging wind, given the presence
of moderate-to-strong MUCAPE and sufficient effective shear. There
remains a great deal of uncertainty regarding the coverage and
location of morning convection, but there is some potential for this
initial activity to grow upscale and become surface-based as it moves
into an increasingly unstable downstream airmass this afternoon. If
this scenario pans out, the threat for severe hail/wind may spread
into MN/WI by late afternoon/early evening.
Regardless of the evolution of morning elevated convection further
east, additional surface-based thunderstorm development is expected
across the western/central Dakotas later this afternoon, in the
vicinity of a weak surface trough. Moderate to locally strong
instability and effective shear generally in the 25-35 kt range will
support multicell clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells, with a corresponding risk of large hail and severe wind gusts. Some upscale
growth of this activity (with a corresponding severe wind threat) is
possible this evening into the central/eastern Dakotas and Minnesota,
but that potential is largely dependent on the amount of convective
overturning that occurs earlier in the day across this region.
...Interior Northwest into Montana... A shortwave trough initially
over the interior Northwest will move east-northeastward through
much of Montana later today into tonight. In conjunction with this
feature, scattered thunderstorms are expected by late this afternoon
across portions of the interior Northwest into Montana. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture will support
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg) across much of MT,
with somewhat weaker instability expected further west into portions
of OR/ID. Increasing midlevel flow will support effective shear
of 40-50 kt, sufficient for organized storm clusters and perhaps
a few supercells, especially across MT. Large hail and severe wind
gusts will be the primary threats this afternoon and evening.
...Lower Mississippi Valley -- TC Barry... TC Barry is expected to
continue weakening and moving slowly north-northwestward today across
LA into AR (for more information, in the eastern semicircle of the
circulation, but widespread rainfall will limit destabilization
across much of this area. The greatest relative tornado threat
will likely evolve just to the east of the primary rain shield,
where there is some potential for heating/destabilization later
today. Some potential will also be present with any convective bands
that redevelop south of the center over the northern Gulf of Mexico
and move inland.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/14/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200
AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of
the northern Rockies/Plains region into the upper Great Lakes. A
few strong storms may linger along the eastern periphery of the
remnants of Barry.
...Northern Rockies/Plains to Upper Great Lakes...
Fairly active flow regime will be noted along the international
border region into the day2 period with several embedded short-wave
troughs expected to aid convection. One short wave is expected to
generate storms across the northern High Plains Sunday and this
feature should nudge lee trough/front across the Dakotas into MN
where it may serve as the focus for renewed development later Monday
afternoon. Models suggest a narrow corridor of surface heating will
be maximized ahead of the wind shift which should aid buoyancy that
would assist convective initiation. However, longevity of late-day1
convection and potential convective debris/precip may negatively
influence convection. Even so, there appears to be enough threat
to include 15% severe probs for this region.
Upstream, strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the High
Plains of eastern CO into south-central SD. Forecast soundings
suggest mid 90s will be reached along a southwest-northeast
oriented wind shift by 21z...likely adequate for parcels to reach
their convective temperatures. Parcels will likely reach their
convective temperatures by mid afternoon across southwestern MT
and orographic influences should aid convection that should spread
east during the evening hours. Deep-layer shear appears adequate
for supercells from southern MT into the Black Hills region.
...Remnants of Barry...
Remnants of Barry will drift slowly north-northeast into the
day2 period with strongest corridor of low-level shear expected
to remain focused along the eastern hemisphere of the low. Latest
guidance suggests the greatest risk for weak supercells will occur
across MS into western TN where somewhat greater buoyancy may be
present. Even so, greatest risk with this convection will be brief
weak tornadoes or perhaps some gusty winds.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: <2% - None Wind: 15%
- Slight Hail: 15% - Slight
..Darrow.. 07/14/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149
AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across
the central Plains Tuesday.
...Central Plains...
Large-scale pattern is not expected to change appreciably into the
day3 period, though the remnants of Barry are forecast to finally
eject across the lower OH/TN Valley region. In it's wake, broad
upper ridging will dominate the southern Plains into KS where CINH
and subsidence should suppress deep convection. Of more concern is a
corridor from eastern WY into western IA, along the southern fringe
of seasonally strong westerlies. Latest model guidance suggests
several weak disturbances will translate across the northern
Great Basin into the High Plains region and LLJ is expected to
respond to these features modulated by nocturnal influences. Latest
thinking is a surface front will settle to a position from southern
MN-NE-WY, urged south by late day2 convection. This boundary should
serve as the focus for renewed thunderstorm development Tuesday,
especially across the High Plains where strong boundary-layer
heating is expected. Have introduced 5% severe probs to account
for late afternoon development that would organize and propagate
east during the overnight hours. If it becomes more clear that a
short-wave trough will time favorably to the diurnal heating cycle
then higher severe probs may be warranted in later outlooks.
..Darrow.. 07/14/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2019
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough, embedded within a
larger scale ridging pattern aloft, and with an associated belt
of 40-50 knot mid-level flow, will traverse the Pacific Northwest
and northern Rockies regions during the period. The stronger flow
aloft will coincide with a deeply mixed boundary layer across
northern and central portions of the Great Basin into the northern
Rockies area. Stronger flow aloft may be transported down to the
surface to promote dry, breezy conditions supportive of wildfire
spread. Portions of the northwest CONUS may also see isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development in association with mid-level
monsoonal moisture and the embedded mid-level shortwave trough,
with a few dry strikes possible.
...Great Basin and vicinity... Boundary-layer mixing of the
stronger flow aloft across the lee of the northern Sierra, into
central Nevada, and the Snake River Plain, will likely induce
15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amidst 10-20%
RH. In addition, downslope flow across portions of northwest into
central Nevada may promote localized critical conditions, with
westerly surface winds reaching 25 mph at times. A relatively
broad elevated area has been delineated across much of Nevada,
with a smaller elevated area delineated in the Snake River Plain
to account for this scenario.
Meanwhile, farther to the north across portions of the Harney Basin
to the Idaho/Wyoming border, isolated to potentially scattered
thunderstorms will be possible given the mid-level monsoonal
moisture in place and deep-layer ascent provided by the glancing
upper-level trough. Latest forecast guidance depicts a dry sub-cloud
layer extending well above 700 mb, with precipitable water values of
0.50-0.75 inches across the area, suggesting that at least isolated
dry strikes will be possible. In addition, storms embedded in the
stronger flow aloft will have relatively faster storm motions, and
will traverse areas where fuels will be at least marginally receptive
to fire spread, warranting an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation. ..Squitieri.. 07/14/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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The nice thing about standards is that there are so many of them to choose from.
-- Andrew S. Tanenbaum

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