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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250
AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
WY/SOUTHEAST MT INTO SD AND NORTHERN NE...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern
and central High Plains this afternoon and evening, with the primary
threats being large hail and severe wind gusts. Other strong storms
will be possible into portions of the Midwest, and also from the
lower and mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.
...Northern/Central High Plains... An upper trough over the
Northwest will maintain moderate southwesterly midlevel flow across
portions of the northern Rockies into the High Plains. Within
this flow regime, most guidance suggests a shortwave trough will
amplify later in the period across the northern High Plains. Steep
midlevel lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture will support
moderate buoyancy by this afternoon, with generally long, straight
hodographs supporting the potential for supercells capable of
producing large hail (potentially very large) and locally severe
wind gusts. A tornado or two will also be possible, especially with
any supercell that persists into early evening, when some modest
increase in low-level shear is expected.
Coverage of storms remains somewhat uncertain during the first
half of the period, but at least widely scattered supercells will
be possible by late afternoon. Increasing large-scale ascent into
the evening may support some upscale growth, which would spread a
severe wind risk further east into a larger portion of the northern
and/or central Plains.
...Eastern NE...IA...Southern MN... The remnant of an MCS that
developed Monday night across western NE will likely be approaching
the mid-Missouri Valley by the start of the period this morning. The
attendant MCV may help to focus robust thunderstorm development
later this afternoon across IA, southern MN, and perhaps far
eastern NE. Shear in this region will be relatively modest through
the afternoon, but should be sufficient to support organized
multicell clusters, given the presence of moderate to locally
strong buoyancy. Hail and damaging wind would be the primary
threats with this scenario. Confidence in the evolution of early
morning convection and attendant MCV is too low for a Slight Risk
upgrade at this time, but probabilities may need to be increased
in subsequent updates.
...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley... The remnant circulation of Barry will continue to weaken today as it moves
northeastward, but some enhancement to the low-level flow will
remain across the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley
amidst a very moist environment. Most available guidance suggests
that an intense band of convection will be ongoing south of the
remnant circulation across southern AR this morning, with weaker
bands of convection expected through the day to the east of the
circulation. While effective shear will generally be weak in this
region, low-level flow may be sufficient to support a threat of
locally damaging wind with the strongest storms.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/16/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213
AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across
portions of the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated strong storms
may also be noted across parts of the Plains and over portions of
the northeastern US.
...Upper MS Valley...
Seasonally strong mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to eject
across the northern inter-mountain region during the day1 period
which should aid organized convection across the northern High
Plains Tuesday night. Latest guidance suggests an MCS may evolve
ahead of this feature late day1 that should propagate across central
SD by sunrise Wednesday. While late-evening guidance differs a bit
regarding the timing of the affiliated short wave, there is reason
to believe the Plains MCS may continue east into southern MN as LLJ
shifts downstream ahead of the disturbance. It's not entirely clear
how much convection, if any, will root into the boundary layer where
more buoyant parcels will exist. However a strong signal does exist
for organized elevated convection propagating east across southern
MN along the nose of aforementioned LLJ. Wind and some hail are
the primary threats.
...Plains...
Farther southwest along surface boundary, strong low-level heating
will contribute to parcels reaching their convective temperatures and
isolated high-based convection should evolve across eastern NE into
western KS. This activity could produce isolated severe wind gusts
as sub-cloud temp/dew point spreads may approach 40F at peak heating.
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may also develop across eastern
WY within post-frontal easterly flow regime. Forecast soundings
suggest a few supercells may form after 22z and this activity should
spread toward the Black Hills after sunset.
Isolated strong storms may also develop across eastern ND into
northwest MN if sufficient instability develops in the wake of
early-MCS that tracks across SD into southern MN. Large-scale forcing
for ascent will be stronger across this region as exit region of
500mb speed max is forecast to translate across southeast ND into
northwest MN during the early evening hours.
...Delmarva to southern New England...
Remnants of Barry are forecast to eject across the OH Valley into
western NY/PA by 18z. Somewhat stronger mid-level flow will evolve
ahead of this feature along a corridor into southern New England
where boundary-layer heating is expected to be maximized. Forecast
soundings exhibit mean cloud-layer flow on the order of 25kt. With
surface temperatures expected to rise into the 90s, steepening
surface-3km lapse rates should enhance downdraft potential with
convection across this region.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind:
15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Darrow.. 07/16/2019
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153
AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may develop across parts of the
northern Plains and Great Lakes region Thursday.
...Northern Plains/Great Lakes Region...
Mid-level heights are expected to rise across the upper Midwest
into the Great Lakes region during the day3 period as upper ridging
gradually expands across the southern 2/3rds of the CONUS. Latest
guidance suggests a short-wave trough will eject across the upper
Great Lakes into ON early in the period. Convection will likely
be ongoing at sunrise ahead of this feature, aided in part by LLJ
over northern lower MI. While some of this activity could prove
strong, the primary concern for robust convection would be later
in the day along a boundary draped across lower MI-WI-southern
MN. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity along this
boundary much of the period. However, convection could evolve by
early evening along southern fringe of stronger westerlies. If so,
wind will be the primary risk.
Upstream across ND, strong boundary-layer heating will contribute
to destabilization across the northern Plains ahead of a progressive
cold front. This wind shift should settle into central ND during the
evening as notable short-wave trough ejects along the international
border. Latest guidance suggests convection should evolve and spread
east after sunset within a strongly sheared environment that would
favor organization. Wind is the primary risk with this activity.
..Darrow.. 07/16/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...
...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will amplify as
it progresses eastward across the western CONUS throughout the
period. Stronger mid-level flow associated with the aforementioned
trough will glance the Great Basin during the afternoon, where a
deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place to assist the downward
transport of the stronger flow aloft. As such, portions of the
Great Basin will be subject to dry and windy conditions which will
promote wildfire-spread potential.
...Portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies... Diurnal
mixing of the stronger flow aloft to the surface will result in
widespread 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly winds and 10-20%
RH across much of the Great Basin, into the Great Divide Basin in
southwest Wyoming by peak heating, where an elevated delineation
has been maintained. A critical area remains in place across
portions of the Great Basin, where the best overlap of 20+ mph
surface winds and 10% RH were depicted by the latest model guidance,
where accumulated rainfall in the past two days has been relatively
minimal, and where fuels are critically receptive to fire spread
(with ERCs exceeding the 90th percentile). By evening, nocturnal
cooling of the boundary layer will result in subsiding winds,
tempering the wildfire-spread threat to a degree.
..Squitieri.. 07/16/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2019
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...Synopsis... Large-scale mid-level cyclonic flow will become
more zonal as a mid-level shortwave trough de-amplifies and moves
northeast, away from the western CONUS on Day 2/Wednesday. 50-70
knot mid-level flow will overspread the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies areas, with weaker zonal mid-level flow glancing
the Great Basin and central Rockies regions, where surface low
pressure will dominate.
...Portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies... Overall
weaker mid-level flow is expected across the central/northern
Great Basin into the central Rockies given the de-amplification
of the aforementioned trough, hence weaker flow to mix to the
surface. Currently, the consensus among model guidance members
is that 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds will
materialize during the afternoon, coincident with 10-20% RH, where
an elevated area is in place. Locally critical wind/RH conditions
may be realized in terrain favoring locations via downslope flow,
though brevity of such conditions precludes a critical delineation
at this time. With the onset of nocturnal cooling and boundary
layer decoupling, surface wind speeds should subside sufficiently
to temper the threat for wildfire spread.
..Squitieri.. 07/16/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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